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Patriots / Football / Re: 2024 NFL Draft
« Last post by tazzmaniac on Today at 10:27:07 PM »Then don't reach for QBs or anyone for that matter. Maye isn't a top-3 talent in this draft and he certainly isn't top 3 in chance of having a successful career.Depends on how you define bust and what the other options are. If he hangs around the league as backup for 10 seasons, that certainly isn't what you want from a top pick but I wouldn't call it a bust.There is no way Maye is at 75% to bust. More like 20%. Daniels is far more likely to bust based on college, his fast huge rise, etc. Maye has been projected as a very high pick for multiple seasons. Those guys bust at a mich lower frequency.I think it would be hard to quantify what a hit or bust is.
For example, if MHJ averages say 750 yards a year for the next 7 or 8 years, is he a bust? No of course not. I just wouldn't call that a hit either.
Going by the contract also seems silly.
What do people think the chances are that MHJ turns out to be a bust? I’d probably go with about 10%. This is why I hope the Pats take him at 3. Drake Maye on the other hand seems like he has 75% chance of being a bust. Obviously both are positions of need, but MHJ seems about as close to a sure thing as you can get.
No way is Maye only a 20% chance to bust. He regressed this season. I don’t think any of the QB’s in this draft are close to being a lock.
If a top-3 pick turns into a career backup, I'd call him a bust.