What happens if we don't upgrade the roster this summer?

[Csfan1984]

My concern is what it says to future free agents if we had Horford for a year and then traded him in a rebuild.

Mike

If they come here and don't perform you won't be staying. Good message for the slackers to stay away.

[RockinRyA]

My concern is what it says to future free agents if we had Horford for a year and then traded him in a rebuild.

Mike

If they come here and don't perform you won't be staying. Good message for the slackers to stay away.

Read.

[saltlover]

We can absolutely renegotiate-and-extend IT.  He'll only be eligible for the six-year max, $25.5 million in year 1, which would help maintain long-term flexibility.  We would absolutely be able to keep KO in this situation too -- his cap hold fits in fine with the IT extension.

 It's also not impossible for us to renegotiate and extend Avery, depending on a couple of variables (the draft lottery, if Yab stays abroad one more year).  Say we're able to give AB a $6 million raise next season and sign him to a 5-year deal.  He'd have to get more than 4 years, $77 million in free agency the following year to make turning down such an extension worth it.  That's probably towards the top end of his market value, and he'd likely accept.  This would probably let us keep all three of IT, Smart, and Bradley going forward, as IT and AB would cost about $42 million in 2018 instead of $50 million.  At larger salaries, they'd also be able to bring back more salary on their own in trades, should a younger players begin to usurp a role in the future.

We could only bring back Amir at the room exception.  Ideally we'd actually use it this year, whether or not Amir is willing to take it.

But the team would look largely the same next year, with another top draft pick and Zizic replacing guys like Zeller, Jerebko, and Amir.  I guess Nader gets to come along for the ride too instead of Mickey, and there'd be 1-2 Gerald Greens on the roster.  It's probably a better team than this year, as no major contributors are being lost, and continued growth in players like Smart and Brown create internal improvement.

And it's sustainable, because the next year yet another top pick is added, along with likely Yab and another 1st, and the only guys off the roster are at the true fringes -- min salary players from the prior year.  Depending on how much Olynyk and Smart ultimately get, the team might be in the luxury tax, but only slightly so.  The following year the story is similar, although probably without quite as high a pick, but still potentially 3 1st round picks, again replacing some departed players.  The upside is there for the team, because if Brown becomes that super star, or another draftee does, it will be added to a base 50+ win team.  The current core of this team could remain here for about another 5 years, as the new core is ready to take the baton from them.

Meanwhile, Ainge will still have good salaries to trade whenever an opportunity worth taking arises.

It's hard to see us trying to keep IT, AB, AND Smart if we're drafting a Fultz or Ball this summer, let alone having Rozier on the roster. There's just not enough minutes there, especially with Brown playing some 2 now and Fultz looking much more "game-ready" and ready to contribute than Brown.

And even though I posited AB not nabbing us anything this summer, I think he could be a good piece in a trade bringing us back a significant upgrade. Obviously this post is positing a worst-case scenario type of situation. I actually think we have a decent shot at landing one of Hayward or Griffin. I think we'll get the "Durant" treatment from Griffin, and it's already probably down to Utah or Boston for Hayward.

But even if we don't land one of our main free agents or get a Butler or George via trade, I still think we can ultimately upgrade this summer elsewhere. Gibson would actually be a good guy to put on an Amir-type overpaid deal for a year or two if nothing else works out. And a trade that I've had interest in is something like AB for Favors, though that doesn't help you out with the 2018 contract payment issues.

You keep the assets you can.  Maybe AB is traded for a future upgrade.  Maybe Smart is.  Maybe Fultz is (although I like to assume we're picking third and getting Jackson, as I hate to tempt the lottery gods.)  Also, it's less likely we'd be able to extend AB if we got better than the third pick -- of course, getting 3rd or 4th is more likely than top 2.

The general point is that if you want to extend IT and keep Olynyk if you can work out a reasonable deal, there's only $4-6 million left of cap room.  It's not going to be terribly easy to get anyone worthwhile with that budget, and I'd say extending Bradley is probably the best thing you can do with that money.

I honestly have no desire to keep Olynyk, especially with the type of contract he will probably demand. I think someone like JJ could be kept for much cheaper, let alone Yab possibly coming over, and with Horford's playmaking abilities, KO is needed much less as an offensive, playmaking big.

And honestly, I don't think extending IT this summer is optimal unless you really can't get anything else on the free agency or trade market to take up that space, which ultimately seems doubtful to me. I'd much rather just use cap space to sign a Griffin, Hayward, Milsap, or Ibaka in free agency or even work out a Butler/George trade that relied primarily on draft picks and cap space than extending IT and having to work out further trades elsewhere to upgrade our holes.

That'd at least give you a chance to see how close you were to competing with IT before committing max money to him, along with judging just how ready someone like Fultz and/or Ball (I'm going the more positive route and only considering those two  ) is at taking over the starter role.

And even if IT is a flight risk, that's a chance we can take having players like Smart, Bradley, and Fultz already. It's not like IT would bring back all that much in a trade anyways, and it would allow us to keep that threesome of Smart, Bradley, and Fultz long-term, which has ridiculous potential as a terrifying two-way threesome.

So I just don't see the value in extending IT unless there's literally nothing better to do with the cap space, which I don't consider resigning KO to be.

I'm confused. The whole premise of your post seemed to be what should the Celtics do if they can't upgrade the roster; in other words don't sign a major free agent or make a major trade?  Of course extending IT isnt as optimal as making a major free agent signing -- I didn't think we were having that discussion.

Keeping KO and extending IT aren't that related.  Assuming Yab stays overseas, we'all have ~$31 million of cap room.  Extending IT will cost $18-19 million of that cap space, which is a fine use of it if their are no signings or major trades.  That would leave $12-13 million, which could be used to keep KO ($7.7 million) and maybe extend Bradley, keep Amir (and maybe extend Bradley), or sign someone to a 1+1 deal. 

[TheSundanceKid]

I'd extend IT, maybe be aggressive in the negotiations and get him to accept a lower total over the next 3 years so we can re-sign KO and go over the cap. Then I'd use the MLE to get another rotation big. I'd roll with that roster for another year, noting improvements from Brown and Smart again. I'd probably look to trade Bradley and Rozier in year if I could get decent value for them, otherwise I'd happily commit to them.

At the end of that season if we are looking like being on the treadmill I would look at moving IT for a young swing/big, an expiring and a pick and start building around the young guys. It'd be taking a hit but we would have tried to build around him and failed. I'm not bothered about moving Al as I think he helps the young guys grow

[jpotter33]

We can absolutely renegotiate-and-extend IT.  He'll only be eligible for the six-year max, $25.5 million in year 1, which would help maintain long-term flexibility.  We would absolutely be able to keep KO in this situation too -- his cap hold fits in fine with the IT extension.

 It's also not impossible for us to renegotiate and extend Avery, depending on a couple of variables (the draft lottery, if Yab stays abroad one more year).  Say we're able to give AB a $6 million raise next season and sign him to a 5-year deal.  He'd have to get more than 4 years, $77 million in free agency the following year to make turning down such an extension worth it.  That's probably towards the top end of his market value, and he'd likely accept.  This would probably let us keep all three of IT, Smart, and Bradley going forward, as IT and AB would cost about $42 million in 2018 instead of $50 million.  At larger salaries, they'd also be able to bring back more salary on their own in trades, should a younger players begin to usurp a role in the future.

We could only bring back Amir at the room exception.  Ideally we'd actually use it this year, whether or not Amir is willing to take it.

But the team would look largely the same next year, with another top draft pick and Zizic replacing guys like Zeller, Jerebko, and Amir.  I guess Nader gets to come along for the ride too instead of Mickey, and there'd be 1-2 Gerald Greens on the roster.  It's probably a better team than this year, as no major contributors are being lost, and continued growth in players like Smart and Brown create internal improvement.

And it's sustainable, because the next year yet another top pick is added, along with likely Yab and another 1st, and the only guys off the roster are at the true fringes -- min salary players from the prior year.  Depending on how much Olynyk and Smart ultimately get, the team might be in the luxury tax, but only slightly so.  The following year the story is similar, although probably without quite as high a pick, but still potentially 3 1st round picks, again replacing some departed players.  The upside is there for the team, because if Brown becomes that super star, or another draftee does, it will be added to a base 50+ win team.  The current core of this team could remain here for about another 5 years, as the new core is ready to take the baton from them.

Meanwhile, Ainge will still have good salaries to trade whenever an opportunity worth taking arises.

It's hard to see us trying to keep IT, AB, AND Smart if we're drafting a Fultz or Ball this summer, let alone having Rozier on the roster. There's just not enough minutes there, especially with Brown playing some 2 now and Fultz looking much more "game-ready" and ready to contribute than Brown.

And even though I posited AB not nabbing us anything this summer, I think he could be a good piece in a trade bringing us back a significant upgrade. Obviously this post is positing a worst-case scenario type of situation. I actually think we have a decent shot at landing one of Hayward or Griffin. I think we'll get the "Durant" treatment from Griffin, and it's already probably down to Utah or Boston for Hayward.

But even if we don't land one of our main free agents or get a Butler or George via trade, I still think we can ultimately upgrade this summer elsewhere. Gibson would actually be a good guy to put on an Amir-type overpaid deal for a year or two if nothing else works out. And a trade that I've had interest in is something like AB for Favors, though that doesn't help you out with the 2018 contract payment issues.

You keep the assets you can.  Maybe AB is traded for a future upgrade.  Maybe Smart is.  Maybe Fultz is (although I like to assume we're picking third and getting Jackson, as I hate to tempt the lottery gods.)  Also, it's less likely we'd be able to extend AB if we got better than the third pick -- of course, getting 3rd or 4th is more likely than top 2.

The general point is that if you want to extend IT and keep Olynyk if you can work out a reasonable deal, there's only $4-6 million left of cap room.  It's not going to be terribly easy to get anyone worthwhile with that budget, and I'd say extending Bradley is probably the best thing you can do with that money.

I honestly have no desire to keep Olynyk, especially with the type of contract he will probably demand. I think someone like JJ could be kept for much cheaper, let alone Yab possibly coming over, and with Horford's playmaking abilities, KO is needed much less as an offensive, playmaking big.

And honestly, I don't think extending IT this summer is optimal unless you really can't get anything else on the free agency or trade market to take up that space, which ultimately seems doubtful to me. I'd much rather just use cap space to sign a Griffin, Hayward, Milsap, or Ibaka in free agency or even work out a Butler/George trade that relied primarily on draft picks and cap space than extending IT and having to work out further trades elsewhere to upgrade our holes.

That'd at least give you a chance to see how close you were to competing with IT before committing max money to him, along with judging just how ready someone like Fultz and/or Ball (I'm going the more positive route and only considering those two  ) is at taking over the starter role.

And even if IT is a flight risk, that's a chance we can take having players like Smart, Bradley, and Fultz already. It's not like IT would bring back all that much in a trade anyways, and it would allow us to keep that threesome of Smart, Bradley, and Fultz long-term, which has ridiculous potential as a terrifying two-way threesome.

So I just don't see the value in extending IT unless there's literally nothing better to do with the cap space, which I don't consider resigning KO to be.

I'm confused. The whole premise of your post seemed to be what should the Celtics do if they can't upgrade the roster; in other words don't sign a major free agent or make a major trade?  Of course extending IT isnt as optimal as making a major free agent signing -- I didn't think we were having that discussion.

Keeping KO and extending IT aren't that related.  Assuming Yab stays overseas, we'all have ~$31 million of cap room.  Extending IT will cost $18-19 million of that cap space, which is a fine use of it if their are no signings or major trades.  That would leave $12-13 million, which could be used to keep KO ($7.7 million) and maybe extend Bradley, keep Amir (and maybe extend Bradley), or sign someone to a 1+1 deal.

Oh, that's definitely the basic premise of the thread. I was just saying that I see an IT extension as the very last resort for this squad this summer, and at that point I wouldn't mind listening for offers for IT and Horford, though I wouldn't necessarily shop them. I'd say our preferences should be something like: free agent signing (Griffin, Hayward, etc.), star trade ( Butler, George, etc.), lesser big man/stretch 4 trade (Favors, Melo, etc.), 1 + 1 for older player ( Gibson), extend IT and resign or extend our own guys. Maybe preference 3 and 4 could be switched around, but I think most people would agree with those priorities for this summer.

Let me ask you this, though. Gibson seems to be the primary 1 + 1 deal that people have in mind for this summer if other routes don't work out. Could we both extend IT AND get Gibson with that remaining $12-13 million? I would guess not, because I'd place his value to get him here on that type of deal at probably around a 2 year $30M deal with the increased cap. Does that sound about right to you? If so, do you think IT would extend for a couple million less per year in order to get Gibson here at that type of price? And how would we shore up the rest of our bigs rotation with just Horford, Gibson, and Zizic as our main rotation bigs? (I'm assuming we didn't keep/retain the contracts of both Zeller and Mickey in this scenario, correct?)

[saltlover]

We can absolutely renegotiate-and-extend IT.  He'll only be eligible for the six-year max, $25.5 million in year 1, which would help maintain long-term flexibility.  We would absolutely be able to keep KO in this situation too -- his cap hold fits in fine with the IT extension.

 It's also not impossible for us to renegotiate and extend Avery, depending on a couple of variables (the draft lottery, if Yab stays abroad one more year).  Say we're able to give AB a $6 million raise next season and sign him to a 5-year deal.  He'd have to get more than 4 years, $77 million in free agency the following year to make turning down such an extension worth it.  That's probably towards the top end of his market value, and he'd likely accept.  This would probably let us keep all three of IT, Smart, and Bradley going forward, as IT and AB would cost about $42 million in 2018 instead of $50 million.  At larger salaries, they'd also be able to bring back more salary on their own in trades, should a younger players begin to usurp a role in the future.

We could only bring back Amir at the room exception.  Ideally we'd actually use it this year, whether or not Amir is willing to take it.

But the team would look largely the same next year, with another top draft pick and Zizic replacing guys like Zeller, Jerebko, and Amir.  I guess Nader gets to come along for the ride too instead of Mickey, and there'd be 1-2 Gerald Greens on the roster.  It's probably a better team than this year, as no major contributors are being lost, and continued growth in players like Smart and Brown create internal improvement.

And it's sustainable, because the next year yet another top pick is added, along with likely Yab and another 1st, and the only guys off the roster are at the true fringes -- min salary players from the prior year.  Depending on how much Olynyk and Smart ultimately get, the team might be in the luxury tax, but only slightly so.  The following year the story is similar, although probably without quite as high a pick, but still potentially 3 1st round picks, again replacing some departed players.  The upside is there for the team, because if Brown becomes that super star, or another draftee does, it will be added to a base 50+ win team.  The current core of this team could remain here for about another 5 years, as the new core is ready to take the baton from them.

Meanwhile, Ainge will still have good salaries to trade whenever an opportunity worth taking arises.

It's hard to see us trying to keep IT, AB, AND Smart if we're drafting a Fultz or Ball this summer, let alone having Rozier on the roster. There's just not enough minutes there, especially with Brown playing some 2 now and Fultz looking much more "game-ready" and ready to contribute than Brown.

And even though I posited AB not nabbing us anything this summer, I think he could be a good piece in a trade bringing us back a significant upgrade. Obviously this post is positing a worst-case scenario type of situation. I actually think we have a decent shot at landing one of Hayward or Griffin. I think we'll get the "Durant" treatment from Griffin, and it's already probably down to Utah or Boston for Hayward.

But even if we don't land one of our main free agents or get a Butler or George via trade, I still think we can ultimately upgrade this summer elsewhere. Gibson would actually be a good guy to put on an Amir-type overpaid deal for a year or two if nothing else works out. And a trade that I've had interest in is something like AB for Favors, though that doesn't help you out with the 2018 contract payment issues.

You keep the assets you can.  Maybe AB is traded for a future upgrade.  Maybe Smart is.  Maybe Fultz is (although I like to assume we're picking third and getting Jackson, as I hate to tempt the lottery gods.)  Also, it's less likely we'd be able to extend AB if we got better than the third pick -- of course, getting 3rd or 4th is more likely than top 2.

The general point is that if you want to extend IT and keep Olynyk if you can work out a reasonable deal, there's only $4-6 million left of cap room.  It's not going to be terribly easy to get anyone worthwhile with that budget, and I'd say extending Bradley is probably the best thing you can do with that money.

I honestly have no desire to keep Olynyk, especially with the type of contract he will probably demand. I think someone like JJ could be kept for much cheaper, let alone Yab possibly coming over, and with Horford's playmaking abilities, KO is needed much less as an offensive, playmaking big.

And honestly, I don't think extending IT this summer is optimal unless you really can't get anything else on the free agency or trade market to take up that space, which ultimately seems doubtful to me. I'd much rather just use cap space to sign a Griffin, Hayward, Milsap, or Ibaka in free agency or even work out a Butler/George trade that relied primarily on draft picks and cap space than extending IT and having to work out further trades elsewhere to upgrade our holes.

That'd at least give you a chance to see how close you were to competing with IT before committing max money to him, along with judging just how ready someone like Fultz and/or Ball (I'm going the more positive route and only considering those two  ) is at taking over the starter role.

And even if IT is a flight risk, that's a chance we can take having players like Smart, Bradley, and Fultz already. It's not like IT would bring back all that much in a trade anyways, and it would allow us to keep that threesome of Smart, Bradley, and Fultz long-term, which has ridiculous potential as a terrifying two-way threesome.

So I just don't see the value in extending IT unless there's literally nothing better to do with the cap space, which I don't consider resigning KO to be.

I'm confused. The whole premise of your post seemed to be what should the Celtics do if they can't upgrade the roster; in other words don't sign a major free agent or make a major trade?  Of course extending IT isnt as optimal as making a major free agent signing -- I didn't think we were having that discussion.

Keeping KO and extending IT aren't that related.  Assuming Yab stays overseas, we'all have ~$31 million of cap room.  Extending IT will cost $18-19 million of that cap space, which is a fine use of it if their are no signings or major trades.  That would leave $12-13 million, which could be used to keep KO ($7.7 million) and maybe extend Bradley, keep Amir (and maybe extend Bradley), or sign someone to a 1+1 deal.

Oh, that's definitely the basic premise of the thread. I was just saying that I see an IT extension as the very last resort for this squad this summer, and at that point I wouldn't mind listening for offers for IT and Horford, though I wouldn't necessarily shop them. I'd say our preferences should be something like: free agent signing (Griffin, Hayward, etc.), star trade ( Butler, George, etc.), lesser big man/stretch 4 trade (Favors, Melo, etc.), 1 + 1 for older player ( Gibson), extend IT and resign or extend our own guys. Maybe preference 3 and 4 could be switched around, but I think most people would agree with those priorities for this summer.

Let me ask you this, though. Gibson seems to be the primary 1 + 1 deal that people have in mind for this summer if other routes don't work out. Could we both extend IT AND get Gibson with that remaining $12-13 million? I would guess not, because I'd place his value to get him here on that type of deal at probably around a 2 year $30M deal with the increased cap. Does that sound about right to you? If so, do you think IT would extend for a couple million less per year in order to get Gibson here at that type of price? And how would we shore up the rest of our bigs rotation with just Horford, Gibson, and Zizic as our main rotation bigs? (I'm assuming we didn't keep/retain the contracts of both Zeller and Mickey in this scenario, correct?)

Taj Gibson turns 32 in June.  I don't think he's looking for a deal that could let him test free agency again next summer at 33.  He'll look for 3-4 years at a slightly lower average annual value (probably $12-13 million) than he will a 1-year deal at bigger dollars.  While a lot of people in this thread have suggested him, I don't think it's likely.

In no scenario do we keep Zeller and Mickey.

[slamtheking]

So what route would you prefer us to take if we can't significantly upgrade this roster this summer? Would you extend IT and bring back one or more of our current free agents (probably KO and Amir) and run back this same, flawed team the next couple of years, or would you shop our vets, particularly IT and Horford, and fully commit to developing our younger core?

seriously, those are the only 2 options you can come up with?  keep the entire team or trade the top 2 players we have?  yeesh.

first off, you already know the roster is changing if for no other reason than that Nets pick.  Whether we keep it or use it in a trade, we're getting a new player that figures to either an all-star-level contributor (trade) or getting rotation minutes at a lesser-player's expense (keep the pick).

Second, Amir's and JJ's deals are up at the end of the year.  Neither is producing at a level that would support bringing them back, much less at keeping them so that they're in the rotation as they are now.

Young's deal is up.  99% likely he's gone.  Jackson and Mickey are likely to be replaced with better bench players. 

KO's free agency may be too pricey for Danny so I'd say there's a 50/50 chance someone overpays him and Danny bids him adieu.  KO's also too inconsistent to be the first big off the bench for us so I'd hope Danny would hold the line on what he offers KO as a 'fourth' big in the rotation.

Zizic and Yabu (and Nader) may join the team next year instead of getting another year of seasoning elsewhere.  That's a fairly significant change if for no other reason than if Zizic and Yabu are joining the team, they'll likely be getting rotation minutes.  (Nader, probably not a rotation player but someone in a Young situation of spot minutes possibly)

that's a subtraction of 5-6 players and the addition of at least one and possibly up to 4 players.  that's not including anyone signed as a FA. 

if Danny does nothing else but swap out Amir, JJ, Mickey, Jackson and Young for Zizic, Yabu, Nader, Nets Pick  (we'll just say he keeps KO for this example), he's impacted the roster and team's rotation significantly before adding any free agent (or one of the second round picks we have this year).   

IT and Horford will not be traded this offseason.  just won't happen.  after next year when IT and AB are looking for serious pay raises, that'll be a different discussion.

[CoachBo]

Neither of your options work for me.

I am not interested in resigning Olynyk; time to cut bait there. Same goes for Amir and Jerebko.

And the "young core" hasn't done enough to warrant building around - such a move would be a bald-faced tank, pure and simple - a recognition that Ainge is making zero progress building a champion.

[CoachBo]

My concern is what it says to future free agents if we had Horford for a year and then traded him in a rebuild.

Mike

I think that Grousbeck and Ainge signed Horford to bait the hook for Durant; the inaction since then speaks volumes about their interest in winning now.

So I doubt they're concerned about any message to future free agents. Besides Stevens' binky Hayward, I doubt they're interested in any of them.

[Who]

Same path as we are currently on. Make our draft picks and keep our talent.

It could be another 1-2 years before Ainge manages to make another big move.

These type of rebuilding moves (free agency, trades) can have unpredictable timelines. Ainge has positioned the team well to make a move (free agency or trade) but he needs someone else to agree (a player free agency or a team in a trade). It can take awhile to find that.

Ainge does not need to force a decision. He just needs to stay patient and wait for the right moment. For someone else to agree with his proposed move(s). That will happen at some point. It might be this summer, next season, the year after or even further down the road if Ainge is really unlucky.

No need to force a quick decision (trade youth for vets or rebuild around all-youth). Stay patient, maintain flexibility to go in either direction dependent on best opportunity.

[Rosco917]

Pray we snatch Fultz or even Ball with the first pick of the NBA draft, groom either as the PG of the future. Both have enormous potential on both sides of the ball. 

Try to Upgrade scoring, and rebounding through free agency, we need another player that can create his own shot when needed.

It's almost impossible to not upgrade this roster this summer, by just using the assets we have stashed all around the world.


 

   

[Darío SpanishFan]

As many people have said, just by drafting a top-4 player in the draft and bringing Zizic (maybe also Yabusele and Nader) this team is improving a lot. Also, Smart and Brown will have one more year of experience; all of us are seeing Brown has been a lot better in a few months, so he can explode next season.

Also, with cap space, Brad Stevens and our legacy, it is not logical to think that we are not getting a good free agent, even second tier.

[BaronV]

Pray we snatch Fultz or even Ball with the first pick of the NBA draft, groom either as the PG of the future. Both have enormous potential on both sides of the ball. 

Try to Upgrade scoring, and rebounding through free agency, we need another player that can create his own shot when needed.

It's almost impossible to not upgrade this roster this summer, by just using the assets we have stashed all around the world.

   

There are a few posts in the thread that see the Nets pick as an automatic upgrade.  While it's likely that the player drafted will be much better than the Mickey / Young / Zeller roster spot they'll take, it's not a given.  What if that player goes down early in the season with a major injury ala Randle a couple of years ago or Oden before that?  What if they just can't play at a high level in the NBA like Bennett, who Cleveland drafted #1 a few years ago.  What if they just stink like Darko or Candyman, who were both high picks?  Even if they are good, will they impact next season significantly, or will they come off the bench sparingly as they learn the NBA game and Brad's system? 

I think a trade of that pick for an established player is much more likely to improve next year's roster.  The high pick, if they turn out to be a star-caliber NBA player, will have a much more significant long-term impact though. 

[slamtheking]

Pray we snatch Fultz or even Ball with the first pick of the NBA draft, groom either as the PG of the future. Both have enormous potential on both sides of the ball. 

Try to Upgrade scoring, and rebounding through free agency, we need another player that can create his own shot when needed.

It's almost impossible to not upgrade this roster this summer, by just using the assets we have stashed all around the world.

   

There are a few posts in the thread that see the Nets pick as an automatic upgrade.  While it's likely that the player drafted will be much better than the Mickey / Young / Zeller roster spot they'll take, it's not a given.  What if that player goes down early in the season with a major injury ala Randle a couple of years ago or Oden before that?  What if they just can't play at a high level in the NBA like Bennett, who Cleveland drafted #1 a few years ago.  What if they just stink like Darko or Candyman, who were both high picks? Even if they are good, will they impact next season significantly, or will they come off the bench sparingly as they learn the NBA game and Brad's system? 

I think a trade of that pick for an established player is much more likely to improve next year's roster.  The high pick, if they turn out to be a star-caliber NBA player, will have a much more significant long-term impact though. 

those are pretty poor examples since none of them were projected to be taken where they were actually selected.   

At worst we're looking at a top 4 pick and more likely top 3 in a draft where the top 3 are considered really top quality prospects.  I'm not worried about Danny ending up with a stiff if he takes any of those 3 players.  I think it's fair to say that no matter who he selects, they'll be much better than the person they replace on the roster as soon as they hit the court. 

A trade should net us at least an all-star that would have a bigger impact on the team however the same concern you expressed over a draft pick being injured also applies to that all-star -- injuries happen to anyone.  that's not much of a reason to take a vet over a rookie

[Darío SpanishFan]

What if that player goes down early in the season with a major injury ala Randle a couple of years ago or Oden before that?
 
I think a trade of that pick for an established player is much more likely to improve next year's roster.  The high pick, if they turn out to be a star-caliber NBA player, will have a much more significant long-term impact though.

Well, it is more likely that a veteran gets injured than a young teenager. Imagine we trade Nets 2018, Bradley and Jaylen Brown for Paul George. And he breaks his leg again.

So your arguments seem opposed.