What happens if we don't upgrade the roster this summer?

[jpotter33]

Phantom had a great post earlier today about what would happen if we lost in the first round.

But I think that's the wrong question to ask, because ultimately our approach will be the same this summer no matter what, unless something extreme happens like a sweep in the first round. The more important question is this - what happens if we don't upgrade the roster this summer?

Let's assume that we can't get a fair trade for Butler or George or any other significant upgrade at the draft (they still want too much or are reluctant to trade their star), so we use the number 1 pick ourselves and pick Fultz.

Let's also assume that we don't get any of our free agent targets (even secondary), because they all stay with their current team or some other team. This would include our primary targets of Griffin, Hayward, Noel, Milsap, and Ibaka and even our secondary targets of players like Gallinari and Gibson. Let's also assume that dangling Bradley doesn't get us any significant upgrade either and really only gets us future picks.

(By the way, none of this is unrealistic either. It could very well happen that no star is available, or at least no fair trade for a star is available, and we don't land any of the free agents that we're aiming for. That's an entirely realistic scenario - worst-case scenario, sure, but still possible.)

What do we do then? Well, most likely we would extend IT and resign some of our own free agents, most likely KO and Amir, who would probably have a similar contract as he has now. We'd probably also trade AB for future picks, and we'd try and sign some lesser free agents to fill out the roster, along with bringing our rookies over from overseas. Thus, we'd have something like this roster on opening night:

PG: IT, Rozier
SG: Smart, Fultz
SF: Crowder, Brown
PF: Horford, KO/Yab
C: Amir, Zizic

Are people really comfortable with this route? Are you comfortable extending IT for near max money to lead an inherently flawed team with significant holes that probably maxes out at a second round team, maybe squeaking into the conference finals one year?

Or, would you prefer to shop our vets, particularly IT and Horford (both Crowder and Bradley are young and cheap enough and of high enough character to keep around for now, unless a significant deal would be offered for one or more of them), and commit fully to the young core and rebuild?

Just hypothetically speaking, suppose Bird decided he wanted to keep George, the best player in Indiana Pacers history, at all costs, and he offered Danny a trade of Turner, Jefferson (salary dump), and two future unprotected first round picks for IT and Horford, which would convince George to commit to extend and/or resign with the team long-term next year. Would you make that deal, commit fully to the young core while picking up a franchise-level big, and roll into next year with the following basic core/lineup:

PG: Smart, Rozier
SG: Bradley, Fultz
SF: Crowder, Brown
PF: Yab, ?
C: Turner, Zizic

Honestly, the latter option is more appealing to me than watching a significantly flawed, but still decent, team that Danny refuses and/or is unable to upgrade due to not wanting to waste our younger prospects and assets and/or he can't get a fair deal from other teams/teams won't deal their stars.

So what route would you prefer us to take if we can't significantly upgrade this roster this summer? Would you extend IT and bring back one or more of our current free agents (probably KO and Amir) and run back this same, flawed team the next couple of years, or would you shop our vets, particularly IT and Horford, and fully commit to developing our younger core?

[SHAQATTACK]

I would not max IT If the team has zero success in playoff ....why would you , I don' believe any other team will either.  He is an ideal microwave scorer off the bench . He deserves a big contract workable for the team to still get the star talent needed

He scores 30 points a game ......but what is the net result in points given up?

I'd rather pour my money into Butler , Cousins or George.

[Chris22]

How could we not upgrade the roster this summer?
We have the Brooklyn pick and FA money.
Plus, we have players we could trade.

[jpotter33]

How could we not upgrade the roster this summer?
We have the Brooklyn pick and FA money.
Plus, we have players we could trade.

See the summer of 2014. Sometimes it happens, and there's no guarantee that A) free agents will turn down more money/comfort of playing with their current team to sign with other teams, B) teams will decide to actually trade their stars, or C) other GMs will actually give a reasonable trade price for their players (see the Bulls with Butler in the 2016 draft and 2017 trade deadline).

[chilidawg]

The earth stops spinning.

[chambers]

I think if we don't get any free agents we could resign Bradley and draft Fultz. Then trade Bradley as a pretty solid asset.

Just adding Fultz or whatever draftee we get will be an upgrade IMO. They won't have much impact for the first 6 months, but as we're seeing with Jaylen, as long as they get some minutes off the bench, they should learn pretty quickly with Stevens and our locker room.
We have an excellent environment for growth here.

Resign IT and Bradley if we have to. Waive whoever we need to pay IT and Bradley.

Would love to draft Fultz, and trade the 18' BRK pick for Butler or PG but either way I think having no upgrades is very unlikely.

Butler or George will be available eventually. Just have to wait patiently.

[saltlover]

We can absolutely renegotiate-and-extend IT.  He'll only be eligible for the six-year max, $25.5 million in year 1, which would help maintain long-term flexibility.  We would absolutely be able to keep KO in this situation too -- his cap hold fits in fine with the IT extension.

 It's also not impossible for us to renegotiate and extend Avery, depending on a couple of variables (the draft lottery, if Yab stays abroad one more year).  Say we're able to give AB a $6 million raise next season and sign him to a 5-year deal.  He'd have to get more than 4 years, $77 million in free agency the following year to make turning down such an extension worth it.  That's probably towards the top end of his market value, and he'd likely accept.  This would probably let us keep all three of IT, Smart, and Bradley going forward, as IT and AB would cost about $42 million in 2018 instead of $50 million.  At larger salaries, they'd also be able to bring back more salary on their own in trades, should a younger players begin to usurp a role in the future.

We could only bring back Amir at the room exception.  Ideally we'd actually use it this year, whether or not Amir is willing to take it.

But the team would look largely the same next year, with another top draft pick and Zizic replacing guys like Zeller, Jerebko, and Amir.  I guess Nader gets to come along for the ride too instead of Mickey, and there'd be 1-2 Gerald Greens on the roster.  It's probably a better team than this year, as no major contributors are being lost, and continued growth in players like Smart and Brown create internal improvement.

And it's sustainable, because the next year yet another top pick is added, along with likely Yab and another 1st, and the only guys off the roster are at the true fringes -- min salary players from the prior year.  Depending on how much Olynyk and Smart ultimately get, the team might be in the luxury tax, but only slightly so.  The following year the story is similar, although probably without quite as high a pick, but still potentially 3 1st round picks, again replacing some departed players.  The upside is there for the team, because if Brown becomes that super star, or another draftee does, it will be added to a base 50+ win team.  The current core of this team could remain here for about another 5 years, as the new core is ready to take the baton from them.

Meanwhile, Ainge will still have good salaries to trade whenever an opportunity worth taking arises.

[nickagneta]

Just by adding Fultz or Ball or Jackson, you are upgrading. Also you will be adding at least Zizic which should be an upgrade over several bigs on this roster(like Zeller and Mickey). I also seriously doubt the Celtics can't trade Bradley and a future first for someone to play in the frontcourt. That will be an upgrade. Now the question becomes what do you do with your cap space? My guess is if Danny strikes out on someone long term, he will go the 1 with an option route, overpay someone for a year and try to see if he can move some cap space down the line another year. I just don't see a scenario where the overall talent doesn't get upgraded. It might get younger and less experienced but it will be upgraded.

[GRADYCOLNON]

I see the plan for the Celtics future a little more optimistically than the two scenarios.  The realistic truth about this summer is about not improving talent in free agency; the summer will be more defined by our draft and keeping our free agents.  There are no guarantees that trades will or will not happen, but it will likely be about improving our team with playing ready players. Even if the Celtics bow out of the playoffs early, the landscape of the team will change positively.  All our players will be a year older, a year wiser, a year more they have played together.  Long have teams moved away from building around a single group of players.  Today, teams willingly pick up or toss away players anticipated to be integral to franchise's future.  Billups and Rick Pitino come to mind.  The next season will be highlighted by the fantastic play of Isaiah Thomas still in his prime, Avery Bradley entering his prime, Marcus Smart continuing his surprising uprising, Jae Crowder shooting and defending lights out, Jaylen Brown possibly breaking out, and incoming rookie talents we can drool over.  The future is so bright for the Celtics that it doesn't matter if we don't upgrade the roster by bringing in all-star free agent or trading for one.  It doesn't matter because of all the improvement we will get will come from our players.  Ainge and Stevens have removed the ceilings for this team, giving everyone so much room to grow into the best possible them. 

Ainge has also structured the team so in the next few years, like the Spurs in recent seasons, a torch can be passed on to the future players of the franchise.  In three or four seasons, Horford and Thomas will need the help of youthful rising stars.  Current players on the roster that come to mind are Smart and Brown, and more could be coming in the next two Nets' draft selections.  The future of the franchise has been set to achieve will be one of Ainge's greatest contributions to basketball. The standard for teams in the league to rebuild from depleted rosters.  It will help remove the stains from tanking and poor team ownership that plague many teams around the league. 

[PhoSita]

We continue building with young guys.

Maybe sign another 1+1 guy, e.g. Taj Gibson.

[jpotter33]

We can absolutely renegotiate-and-extend IT.  He'll only be eligible for the six-year max, $25.5 million in year 1, which would help maintain long-term flexibility.  We would absolutely be able to keep KO in this situation too -- his cap hold fits in fine with the IT extension.

 It's also not impossible for us to renegotiate and extend Avery, depending on a couple of variables (the draft lottery, if Yab stays abroad one more year).  Say we're able to give AB a $6 million raise next season and sign him to a 5-year deal.  He'd have to get more than 4 years, $77 million in free agency the following year to make turning down such an extension worth it.  That's probably towards the top end of his market value, and he'd likely accept.  This would probably let us keep all three of IT, Smart, and Bradley going forward, as IT and AB would cost about $42 million in 2018 instead of $50 million.  At larger salaries, they'd also be able to bring back more salary on their own in trades, should a younger players begin to usurp a role in the future.

We could only bring back Amir at the room exception.  Ideally we'd actually use it this year, whether or not Amir is willing to take it.

But the team would look largely the same next year, with another top draft pick and Zizic replacing guys like Zeller, Jerebko, and Amir.  I guess Nader gets to come along for the ride too instead of Mickey, and there'd be 1-2 Gerald Greens on the roster.  It's probably a better team than this year, as no major contributors are being lost, and continued growth in players like Smart and Brown create internal improvement.

And it's sustainable, because the next year yet another top pick is added, along with likely Yab and another 1st, and the only guys off the roster are at the true fringes -- min salary players from the prior year.  Depending on how much Olynyk and Smart ultimately get, the team might be in the luxury tax, but only slightly so.  The following year the story is similar, although probably without quite as high a pick, but still potentially 3 1st round picks, again replacing some departed players.  The upside is there for the team, because if Brown becomes that super star, or another draftee does, it will be added to a base 50+ win team.  The current core of this team could remain here for about another 5 years, as the new core is ready to take the baton from them.

Meanwhile, Ainge will still have good salaries to trade whenever an opportunity worth taking arises.

It's hard to see us trying to keep IT, AB, AND Smart if we're drafting a Fultz or Ball this summer, let alone having Rozier on the roster. There's just not enough minutes there, especially with Brown playing some 2 now and Fultz looking much more "game-ready" and ready to contribute than Brown.

And even though I posited AB not nabbing us anything this summer, I think he could be a good piece in a trade bringing us back a significant upgrade. Obviously this post is positing a worst-case scenario type of situation. I actually think we have a decent shot at landing one of Hayward or Griffin. I think we'll get the "Durant" treatment from Griffin, and it's already probably down to Utah or Boston for Hayward.

But even if we don't land one of our main free agents or get a Butler or George via trade, I still think we can ultimately upgrade this summer elsewhere. Gibson would actually be a good guy to put on an Amir-type overpaid deal for a year or two if nothing else works out. And a trade that I've had interest in is something like AB for Favors, though that doesn't help you out with the 2018 contract payment issues.

[jpotter33]

We continue building with young guys.

Maybe sign another 1+1 guy, e.g. Taj Gibson.

No problem with that as a last option. He's actually a decent fit at the 4 for us, even if he is a bit older.

But to be fair, this post was excluding even that as a possibility. I'd still consider Gibson a "significant" addition for us due to his particular skillset, so I'd still be okay with running that team back the next few years while we develop our young core.

[saltlover]

We can absolutely renegotiate-and-extend IT.  He'll only be eligible for the six-year max, $25.5 million in year 1, which would help maintain long-term flexibility.  We would absolutely be able to keep KO in this situation too -- his cap hold fits in fine with the IT extension.

 It's also not impossible for us to renegotiate and extend Avery, depending on a couple of variables (the draft lottery, if Yab stays abroad one more year).  Say we're able to give AB a $6 million raise next season and sign him to a 5-year deal.  He'd have to get more than 4 years, $77 million in free agency the following year to make turning down such an extension worth it.  That's probably towards the top end of his market value, and he'd likely accept.  This would probably let us keep all three of IT, Smart, and Bradley going forward, as IT and AB would cost about $42 million in 2018 instead of $50 million.  At larger salaries, they'd also be able to bring back more salary on their own in trades, should a younger players begin to usurp a role in the future.

We could only bring back Amir at the room exception.  Ideally we'd actually use it this year, whether or not Amir is willing to take it.

But the team would look largely the same next year, with another top draft pick and Zizic replacing guys like Zeller, Jerebko, and Amir.  I guess Nader gets to come along for the ride too instead of Mickey, and there'd be 1-2 Gerald Greens on the roster.  It's probably a better team than this year, as no major contributors are being lost, and continued growth in players like Smart and Brown create internal improvement.

And it's sustainable, because the next year yet another top pick is added, along with likely Yab and another 1st, and the only guys off the roster are at the true fringes -- min salary players from the prior year.  Depending on how much Olynyk and Smart ultimately get, the team might be in the luxury tax, but only slightly so.  The following year the story is similar, although probably without quite as high a pick, but still potentially 3 1st round picks, again replacing some departed players.  The upside is there for the team, because if Brown becomes that super star, or another draftee does, it will be added to a base 50+ win team.  The current core of this team could remain here for about another 5 years, as the new core is ready to take the baton from them.

Meanwhile, Ainge will still have good salaries to trade whenever an opportunity worth taking arises.

It's hard to see us trying to keep IT, AB, AND Smart if we're drafting a Fultz or Ball this summer, let alone having Rozier on the roster. There's just not enough minutes there, especially with Brown playing some 2 now and Fultz looking much more "game-ready" and ready to contribute than Brown.

And even though I posited AB not nabbing us anything this summer, I think he could be a good piece in a trade bringing us back a significant upgrade. Obviously this post is positing a worst-case scenario type of situation. I actually think we have a decent shot at landing one of Hayward or Griffin. I think we'll get the "Durant" treatment from Griffin, and it's already probably down to Utah or Boston for Hayward.

But even if we don't land one of our main free agents or get a Butler or George via trade, I still think we can ultimately upgrade this summer elsewhere. Gibson would actually be a good guy to put on an Amir-type overpaid deal for a year or two if nothing else works out. And a trade that I've had interest in is something like AB for Favors, though that doesn't help you out with the 2018 contract payment issues.

You keep the assets you can.  Maybe AB is traded for a future upgrade.  Maybe Smart is.  Maybe Fultz is (although I like to assume we're picking third and getting Jackson, as I hate to tempt the lottery gods.)  Also, it's less likely we'd be able to extend AB if we got better than the third pick -- of course, getting 3rd or 4th is more likely than top 2.

The general point is that if you want to extend IT and keep Olynyk if you can work out a reasonable deal, there's only $4-6 million left of cap room.  It's not going to be terribly easy to get anyone worthwhile with that budget, and I'd say extending Bradley is probably the best thing you can do with that money.

[jpotter33]

We can absolutely renegotiate-and-extend IT.  He'll only be eligible for the six-year max, $25.5 million in year 1, which would help maintain long-term flexibility.  We would absolutely be able to keep KO in this situation too -- his cap hold fits in fine with the IT extension.

 It's also not impossible for us to renegotiate and extend Avery, depending on a couple of variables (the draft lottery, if Yab stays abroad one more year).  Say we're able to give AB a $6 million raise next season and sign him to a 5-year deal.  He'd have to get more than 4 years, $77 million in free agency the following year to make turning down such an extension worth it.  That's probably towards the top end of his market value, and he'd likely accept.  This would probably let us keep all three of IT, Smart, and Bradley going forward, as IT and AB would cost about $42 million in 2018 instead of $50 million.  At larger salaries, they'd also be able to bring back more salary on their own in trades, should a younger players begin to usurp a role in the future.

We could only bring back Amir at the room exception.  Ideally we'd actually use it this year, whether or not Amir is willing to take it.

But the team would look largely the same next year, with another top draft pick and Zizic replacing guys like Zeller, Jerebko, and Amir.  I guess Nader gets to come along for the ride too instead of Mickey, and there'd be 1-2 Gerald Greens on the roster.  It's probably a better team than this year, as no major contributors are being lost, and continued growth in players like Smart and Brown create internal improvement.

And it's sustainable, because the next year yet another top pick is added, along with likely Yab and another 1st, and the only guys off the roster are at the true fringes -- min salary players from the prior year.  Depending on how much Olynyk and Smart ultimately get, the team might be in the luxury tax, but only slightly so.  The following year the story is similar, although probably without quite as high a pick, but still potentially 3 1st round picks, again replacing some departed players.  The upside is there for the team, because if Brown becomes that super star, or another draftee does, it will be added to a base 50+ win team.  The current core of this team could remain here for about another 5 years, as the new core is ready to take the baton from them.

Meanwhile, Ainge will still have good salaries to trade whenever an opportunity worth taking arises.

It's hard to see us trying to keep IT, AB, AND Smart if we're drafting a Fultz or Ball this summer, let alone having Rozier on the roster. There's just not enough minutes there, especially with Brown playing some 2 now and Fultz looking much more "game-ready" and ready to contribute than Brown.

And even though I posited AB not nabbing us anything this summer, I think he could be a good piece in a trade bringing us back a significant upgrade. Obviously this post is positing a worst-case scenario type of situation. I actually think we have a decent shot at landing one of Hayward or Griffin. I think we'll get the "Durant" treatment from Griffin, and it's already probably down to Utah or Boston for Hayward.

But even if we don't land one of our main free agents or get a Butler or George via trade, I still think we can ultimately upgrade this summer elsewhere. Gibson would actually be a good guy to put on an Amir-type overpaid deal for a year or two if nothing else works out. And a trade that I've had interest in is something like AB for Favors, though that doesn't help you out with the 2018 contract payment issues.

You keep the assets you can.  Maybe AB is traded for a future upgrade.  Maybe Smart is.  Maybe Fultz is (although I like to assume we're picking third and getting Jackson, as I hate to tempt the lottery gods.)  Also, it's less likely we'd be able to extend AB if we got better than the third pick -- of course, getting 3rd or 4th is more likely than top 2.

The general point is that if you want to extend IT and keep Olynyk if you can work out a reasonable deal, there's only $4-6 million left of cap room.  It's not going to be terribly easy to get anyone worthwhile with that budget, and I'd say extending Bradley is probably the best thing you can do with that money.

I honestly have no desire to keep Olynyk, especially with the type of contract he will probably demand. I think someone like JJ could be kept for much cheaper, let alone Yab possibly coming over, and with Horford's playmaking abilities, KO is needed much less as an offensive, playmaking big.

And honestly, I don't think extending IT this summer is optimal unless you really can't get anything else on the free agency or trade market to take up that space, which ultimately seems doubtful to me. I'd much rather just use cap space to sign a Griffin, Hayward, Milsap, or Ibaka in free agency or even work out a Butler/George trade that relied primarily on draft picks and cap space than extending IT and having to work out further trades elsewhere to upgrade our holes.

That'd at least give you a chance to see how close you were to competing with IT before committing max money to him, along with judging just how ready someone like Fultz and/or Ball (I'm going the more positive route and only considering those two  ) is at taking over the starter role.

And even if IT is a flight risk, that's a chance we can take having players like Smart, Bradley, and Fultz already. It's not like IT would bring back all that much in a trade anyways, and it would allow us to keep that threesome of Smart, Bradley, and Fultz long-term, which has ridiculous potential as a terrifying two-way threesome.

So I just don't see the value in extending IT unless there's literally nothing better to do with the cap space, which I don't consider resigning KO to be.

[mef730]

My concern is what it says to future free agents if we had Horford for a year and then traded him in a rebuild.

Mike