Here's why I see it as (roughly) a coin flip.
1) I think it's extremely likely the Lakers finish between the 3rd and 7th worst record in the league. They won't finish ahead of teams like Milwaukee or OKC. They've barely played on the road, their defense is atrocious, and 5-6 is likely to be their highest winning percentage between now and the end of the season.
2) If they finish 3rd or 4th you're looking at ~80% chance of conveying... we only miss if they get the #1 overall pick (13%), or get bumped all the way back to 6+.
3) If they finish 5th, it's closer to even odds.
4) If they finish 6th-8th we're talking a 10-15% chance.
Put it all together and as long as the inflection point is around ~5th worst, you get pretty even odds.