I must be the only one who is not all that excited about signing an injury-prone, aging star player with declining skills who tends to be a non-factor in big games to a 4-year max contract?
No, you are not. The risks of the contract are quite clear. He may be hurt for half of it and he may simply decline in performance.
Having said that...all of the "risk" is tied up in Wyc's money and cap space. As we have learned and it should be clear by now: cap space is meaningless if you cannot use it.
This was not a trade for Al Horford, giving up Smart, Olynyk and a future 1st. WE KEEP ALL OF THOSE GUYS. The players we likely see go (assuming now KD) were also likely to go regardless (Turner, Evan).
This was a 'no-brainer,' as Zach Lowe said on twitter.
Good analysis. He's definitely worth the risk, because otherwise it would just be another year of us not utilizing cap space in any meaningful way.
I would have rather spent $70-ish million on Howard for 3 years, but that's just me, and there's no telling whether he wanted to come. I like Horford, but feel that even if our roster stays the way it is, he might be the third best player on the Celtics next season.
I think your analysis there is fair to be honest.
Horford is definitely not better then Isaiah Thomas. Is he better then Crowder? Honestly I would probably say yes, but if so it's not by much. Crowder was putting up similar scoring numbers last year to what Horford was, and Crowder is a FAR better defensive player. I only give the edge to Horford because of intangibles (BBIQ and leadership) but in terms of pure production I don't think he's any better then Crowder.
Hell you can even argue that Avery Bradley is a better player on both ends of the court - but again lacks Horford's intangibles.
In terms of outright production Horford, Crowder and Bradley are all pretty much in the same realm. Isaiah is one or two large steps above those guys.
Horford is a nice addition, but he's not going to be enough on his own to propel this team to legit contender status. We are going to need to need a significant upgrade at another position to really propel us to another level as a team.
There are plenty of options:
1) Signing Durant (Big upgrade at SF/PF)
2) Trading for Butler (big upgrade at SG/SF)
3) Trading for Noel and playing Horford at PF (big upgrade at center)
4) Trading for Monroe and playing Horford at PF (big upgrade at center)
5) Trading for Middleton (significant upgrade at SG / SF)
Not sure what the plan is, but we're going to need another significant move of that type of magnitude to really propel us into the "contender" discussion. Horford isn't the endgame, but he's a big step in the right direction.