Author Topic: Patriots 2018 Season  (Read 76376 times)

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Re: Patriots 2018 Season
« Reply #270 on: December 17, 2018, 11:43:51 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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This thread feels a bit like sky is falling after a loss on the road to a good team. As someone else mentioned they have beat really good teams this year like the chiefs and Texans and bears. Even the rams had a pretty crappy loss tonight and the Texans squeaked by the jets yesterday. We certainly are not the favorites but saying it is time to rebuild strikes me as pretty strange. I also think next year will be Brady’s last season


The Steelers aren't a good team, though.  They've lost to a lot of crappy teams this season.


The Pats, unfortunately, are also bad.  Worse, the Pats seem to be trending down instead of up.


Earlier this season, they had a good offense with a problematic defense.

Lately, the offense has been uncreative, with lots of short yardage plays.  They've had a lot of trouble generating touchdowns in the red zone.  They are really bad at converting third downs.

The special teams have also been a letdown with missed field goals, penalties, and of course the blown final play against Miami.
Pittsburgh and New England are not bad teams. The Bills, Jets, Raiders and Cardinals are bad teams. Pittsburgh and New England are most likely division winning  playoff teams in a conference that is much stronger than the NFC. That makes them really good teams.

Winning a weak division with a crappy road record and mediocre advanced stats makes you really good?
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Re: Patriots 2018 Season
« Reply #271 on: December 17, 2018, 11:52:08 AM »

Offline nickagneta

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This thread feels a bit like sky is falling after a loss on the road to a good team. As someone else mentioned they have beat really good teams this year like the chiefs and Texans and bears. Even the rams had a pretty crappy loss tonight and the Texans squeaked by the jets yesterday. We certainly are not the favorites but saying it is time to rebuild strikes me as pretty strange. I also think next year will be Brady’s last season


The Steelers aren't a good team, though.  They've lost to a lot of crappy teams this season.


The Pats, unfortunately, are also bad.  Worse, the Pats seem to be trending down instead of up.


Earlier this season, they had a good offense with a problematic defense.

Lately, the offense has been uncreative, with lots of short yardage plays.  They've had a lot of trouble generating touchdowns in the red zone.  They are really bad at converting third downs.

The special teams have also been a letdown with missed field goals, penalties, and of course the blown final play against Miami.
Pittsburgh and New England are not bad teams. The Bills, Jets, Raiders and Cardinals are bad teams. Pittsburgh and New England are most likely division winning  playoff teams in a conference that is much stronger than the NFC. That makes them really good teams.

Winning a weak division with a crappy road record and mediocre advanced stats makes you really good?
It certainly doesn't make them bad.

Re: Patriots 2018 Season
« Reply #272 on: December 17, 2018, 12:10:18 PM »

Offline hpantazo

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This thread feels a bit like sky is falling after a loss on the road to a good team. As someone else mentioned they have beat really good teams this year like the chiefs and Texans and bears. Even the rams had a pretty crappy loss tonight and the Texans squeaked by the jets yesterday. We certainly are not the favorites but saying it is time to rebuild strikes me as pretty strange. I also think next year will be Brady’s last season


The Steelers aren't a good team, though.  They've lost to a lot of crappy teams this season.


The Pats, unfortunately, are also bad.  Worse, the Pats seem to be trending down instead of up.


Earlier this season, they had a good offense with a problematic defense.

Lately, the offense has been uncreative, with lots of short yardage plays.  They've had a lot of trouble generating touchdowns in the red zone.  They are really bad at converting third downs.

The special teams have also been a letdown with missed field goals, penalties, and of course the blown final play against Miami.
Pittsburgh and New England are not bad teams. The Bills, Jets, Raiders and Cardinals are bad teams. Pittsburgh and New England are most likely division winning  playoff teams in a conference that is much stronger than the NFC. That makes them really good teams.

Winning a weak division with a crappy road record and mediocre advanced stats makes you really good?
It certainly doesn't make them bad.


They are a mediocre team. Not a legit contender but a playoff level team.

Brady is finally showing his age, Gronk looks like he’s 90 years old, and BB did a poor job of constructing this roster and seems to have lost focus on coaching it down the stretch

Re: Patriots 2018 Season
« Reply #273 on: December 17, 2018, 12:28:28 PM »

Offline Neurotic Guy

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Despite their horrendous run D and sloppy play and mental errors, this team is one never-happens play from being 10-4 and in the drivers’s seat for a bye. I think if Pats had a bye they’d have as good a chance as any AFC team to make the Super Bowl. As it stands, they don’t have much of a shot.

 In a mediocre conference they are still an above average team. 

Re: Patriots 2018 Season
« Reply #274 on: December 17, 2018, 12:31:40 PM »

Online rocknrollforyoursoul

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I don't think the Pats are bad, but I agree with PhoSita's general line of thinking. This year's Pats, as a whole team, have rarely looked good to great. The offense was doing really well during that 6-game winning streak, but since then has had lots of struggles. The defense has been up and down, with the low point (in my opinion) being last week's debacle in Miami—not just the last play, but the fact that they gave up 34 points to the thoroughly mediocre Dolphins. Their special teams have looked uncharacteristically suspect, even Gostkowski. McDaniels' play-calling, in my opinion, is very questionable, and the offense has been horrid in the red zone. The D and the O almost never play good at the same time. The team just doesn't seem to have "it" this season. I'd call them above average, but not "good."
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Re: Patriots 2018 Season
« Reply #275 on: December 17, 2018, 12:43:37 PM »

Online rocknrollforyoursoul

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Despite their horrendous run D and sloppy play and mental errors, this team is one never-happens play from being 10-4 and in the drivers’s seat for a bye. I think if Pats had a bye they’d have as good a chance as any AFC team to make the Super Bowl. As it stands, they don’t have much of a shot.

 In a mediocre conference they are still an above average team.

I think the problem is that "above average" is a low bar compared to what we've had the last 15+ seasons, and also compared to what many of us thought they'd be this season. The defense has never looked good for more than 2 consecutive weeks, and the offense has gone downhill since the 6-game winning streak. A common condition for the Patriots' success has been "as long as they're healthy," but yesterday the offense struggled mightily despite missing no one.
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Re: Patriots 2018 Season
« Reply #276 on: December 17, 2018, 12:50:36 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Not sure. Have they done DVOA for all Superbowl winners? Jets maybe but probably not since there were a lot fewer teams. Colts had a pretty bad defense back 10 years or so. Maybe the Giants in 2007. Their defense came together only in the playoffs if I remember right. Seem to remember Washington having a porous season. Was that 83 or 87? One of Denver's wins was with a bad defense. I would have to do a search.


Here's the DVOA for the last 5 years of teams that have made the Super Bowl:


2017

NE - Offense #1 ... Defense #31 ... ST #3 ... Overall #6
PHI - Offense #8 ... Defense #5 ... ST #16 ... Overall #5

2016

NE - Offense #2 ... Defense #16 ... ST #7 ... Overall #1
ATL - Offense #1 ... Defense #27 ... ST #8 ... Overall #3

2015


DEN - Offense #25 ... Defense #1 ... ST #14 ... Overall #8
CAR - Offense #8 ... Defense #2 ... ST #23 ... Overall #4

2014

NE - Offense #6 ... Defense #11 ... ST #5 ... Overall #4
SEA - Offense #5 ... Defense #1 ... ST #19 ... Overall #1

2013

DEN - Offense #1 ... Defense #15 ... ST #21 ... Overall #2
SEA - Offense #7 ... Defense #1 ... ST #5 ... Overall #1



Going back farther, looking just at the overall DVOA:

2012 - BAL #8 , SF #4

2011 - NE #4, NYG #12   ---- (Giants had #7 Offense #20 Defense)

2010 - PIT #3, GB #2

2009 - IND #8, NO #6

2008 - PIT #4, ARI #20 ---- (Cardinals had #10 Offense #21 Defense)


So you've got a couple instances in the last decade of mediocre teams making the Super Bowl -- the 2011 Giants and the 2008 Cardinals.



The Patriots through Week 14 this season:

#10 overall, #6 Offense, #21 Defense, #19 ST


The offense is surely trending down after yesterday, and the run defense has to be trending down as well.  The special teams may be also.



Overall I would say you're right that occasionally bad teams make the Super Bowl.  Once in a while, if they have some kind of weird curse against their opponent (as with the Giants and Pats), they even win.

But the overwhelming trend is of Super Bowl contenders having either an elite defense or elite offense, and often both.


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Re: Patriots 2018 Season
« Reply #277 on: December 17, 2018, 12:54:35 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I think the problem is that "above average" is a low bar compared to what we've had the last 15+ seasons, and also compared to what many of us thought they'd be this season. The defense has never looked good for more than 2 consecutive weeks, and the offense has gone downhill since the 6-game winning streak. A common condition for the Patriots' success has been "as long as they're healthy," but yesterday the offense struggled mightily despite missing no one.


I want to really underscore as well that, for me, it's not only that they are a mediocre (i.e. "above average" in a 32 team league).

It's that they are *boring,* often *painful* while also being not particularly good.

In the past, there were years when the Pats had an offense that put up a ton of points, where Gronk dominated or Brady was out of his mind, and the defense was awful.  Those teams were sometimes frustrating but often really satisfying to watch.

They pulled out trick plays sometimes and embarrassed lesser opponents.  They had several plays a game where it was clear they just totally outsmarted the opponent and got a huge chunk of yardage / scored a TD because they were better, smarter, and more experienced.


This year, it's all dink and dunk, a ton of short yardage runs and screen passes.  They don't have a reliable playmaker on offense.  Brady is unreliable in the red zone and throwing a lot more interceptions than in the past.  The defense occasionally gets some sacks but they give up a ton of rushing yards. 

They're just not enjoyable to watch AND they're not very good.


If they were boring but efficient and successful, fine.  We've seen Pats teams like that, too.  But they aren't that.


If you want to point out that there are plenty of fanbases that would be thrilled to watch a team that is grindy and creaky but nonetheless *decent* and that will have at least one home playoff game, that's fine.  You're correct.

There are a lot of fanbases in the NFL starving for a single season of competence.  You hand a starving person a piece of stale bread, they're going to gobble it up and thank you profusely because they were starving.

But as a Pats fan -- I know, I'm spoiled -- I'm *not* starving.  I've been well fed.  I don't have any need or desire to eat stale bread.
« Last Edit: December 17, 2018, 01:00:04 PM by PhoSita »
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Re: Patriots 2018 Season
« Reply #278 on: December 17, 2018, 01:41:21 PM »

Offline Vermont Green

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They can't stop the run.  Hightower had a bad game in particular in my opinion.  That is a point of attack thing, not a scheme thing that can be corrected (as opposed to penalties where many can be corrected).  I feel the Patriots are extremely vulnerable this year.  Hard to see them winning on the road in the playoffs.

Re: Patriots 2018 Season
« Reply #279 on: December 17, 2018, 01:47:03 PM »

Offline kraidstar

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The Pats aren't great. The good news? Neither are our potential playoff opponents.

The Chiefs have a terrible defense and a very young QB. They haven't looked great lately.

The Chargers have been the biggest choking organization in pro sports the last 12 or so years. One  year they had the #2 offense and #1 defense and MISSED THE PLAYOFFS. They will find a humorous way to lose just as they always have.

Houston has never done anything and isn't great.

Pittsburgh is deeply flawed and is unlikely to beat us in Foxborough.

The Rams have been putrid lately. Goff looks to be rapidly losing confidence.

The Bears don't have a QB.

The Saints are talented but generally underperform in the playoffs. They look to me to be the most complete and dangerous team. They are beatable though.

Really the playoff field is not great. Every team has some big questions and flaws. The Pats have a solid chance against any of those clubs.

Re: Patriots 2018 Season
« Reply #280 on: December 17, 2018, 01:48:17 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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I think the problem is that "above average" is a low bar compared to what we've had the last 15+ seasons, and also compared to what many of us thought they'd be this season. The defense has never looked good for more than 2 consecutive weeks, and the offense has gone downhill since the 6-game winning streak. A common condition for the Patriots' success has been "as long as they're healthy," but yesterday the offense struggled mightily despite missing no one.


I want to really underscore as well that, for me, it's not only that they are a mediocre (i.e. "above average" in a 32 team league).

It's that they are *boring,* often *painful* while also being not particularly good.

In the past, there were years when the Pats had an offense that put up a ton of points, where Gronk dominated or Brady was out of his mind, and the defense was awful.  Those teams were sometimes frustrating but often really satisfying to watch.

They pulled out trick plays sometimes and embarrassed lesser opponents.  They had several plays a game where it was clear they just totally outsmarted the opponent and got a huge chunk of yardage / scored a TD because they were better, smarter, and more experienced.


This year, it's all dink and dunk, a ton of short yardage runs and screen passes.  They don't have a reliable playmaker on offense.  Brady is unreliable in the red zone and throwing a lot more interceptions than in the past.  The defense occasionally gets some sacks but they give up a ton of rushing yards. 

They're just not enjoyable to watch AND they're not very good.


If they were boring but efficient and successful, fine.  We've seen Pats teams like that, too.  But they aren't that.


If you want to point out that there are plenty of fanbases that would be thrilled to watch a team that is grindy and creaky but nonetheless *decent* and that will have at least one home playoff game, that's fine.  You're correct.

There are a lot of fanbases in the NFL starving for a single season of competence.  You hand a starving person a piece of stale bread, they're going to gobble it up and thank you profusely because they were starving.

But as a Pats fan -- I know, I'm spoiled -- I'm *not* starving.  I've been well fed.  I don't have any need or desire to eat stale bread.

I agree that overall, the Pats haven’t been a ton of fun to watch this year.

And, that does count for something. I’m a Bears fan, and this has been their most entertaining team since 2006, and maybe since the 1980s.  It’s why I’ll always have a soft spot for the 2017 Celts: sometimes a really likable team just comes together and entertains the hell out of you, even if they fall short.


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Re: Patriots 2018 Season
« Reply #281 on: December 17, 2018, 02:43:56 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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I agree some of these games have been pretty boring, but I am not sure I agree we don't have any exciting playmakers. Do people not like Josh Gordon? I feel like James White is also extremely dynamic.

Gronk looks like he is moving with cement right now, but he has certainly also been exciting over the years.

Re: Patriots 2018 Season
« Reply #282 on: December 17, 2018, 03:10:00 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I agree some of these games have been pretty boring, but I am not sure I agree we don't have any exciting playmakers. Do people not like Josh Gordon? I feel like James White is also extremely dynamic.

Gronk looks like he is moving with cement right now, but he has certainly also been exciting over the years.


White is a short pass guy, which is fine, but when that's the bulk of the offense, it's not a great sign.

Gronk, as you say, looks like he should have retired already.  He's capable of making some plays, but he looks like he's gonna be using a walker before he's 40.


Josh Gordon has had his moments but is far from a consistent or reliable option at this point.
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Re: Patriots 2018 Season
« Reply #283 on: December 17, 2018, 03:12:14 PM »

Offline Billz401

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I think the problem is that "above average" is a low bar compared to what we've had the last 15+ seasons, and also compared to what many of us thought they'd be this season. The defense has never looked good for more than 2 consecutive weeks, and the offense has gone downhill since the 6-game winning streak. A common condition for the Patriots' success has been "as long as they're healthy," but yesterday the offense struggled mightily despite missing no one.


I want to really underscore as well that, for me, it's not only that they are a mediocre (i.e. "above average" in a 32 team league).

It's that they are *boring,* often *painful* while also being not particularly good.

In the past, there were years when the Pats had an offense that put up a ton of points, where Gronk dominated or Brady was out of his mind, and the defense was awful.  Those teams were sometimes frustrating but often really satisfying to watch.

They pulled out trick plays sometimes and embarrassed lesser opponents.  They had several plays a game where it was clear they just totally outsmarted the opponent and got a huge chunk of yardage / scored a TD because they were better, smarter, and more experienced.


This year, it's all dink and dunk, a ton of short yardage runs and screen passes.  They don't have a reliable playmaker on offense.  Brady is unreliable in the red zone and throwing a lot more interceptions than in the past.  The defense occasionally gets some sacks but they give up a ton of rushing yards. 

They're just not enjoyable to watch AND they're not very good.


If they were boring but efficient and successful, fine.  We've seen Pats teams like that, too.  But they aren't that.


If you want to point out that there are plenty of fanbases that would be thrilled to watch a team that is grindy and creaky but nonetheless *decent* and that will have at least one home playoff game, that's fine.  You're correct.

There are a lot of fanbases in the NFL starving for a single season of competence.  You hand a starving person a piece of stale bread, they're going to gobble it up and thank you profusely because they were starving.

But as a Pats fan -- I know, I'm spoiled -- I'm *not* starving.  I've been well fed.  I don't have any need or desire to eat stale bread.
Like the fake hand off fake reverse, screen back to the rb they run 5 times a game that goes absolutely no where. I'm getting sick to my stomach every game watching some of these terrible play calls. I dont get how we can look so mediocre and boring on offense all game and then all of a sudden with 2 mins left down 7 we can March right down the field with some vertical passes.
And where the heck is james white? Hello top 7 fantasy points up til week 12 and then burkhead comes back and now hes the redheaded step child. I actually hope McDaniels takes a coaching job and sticks with it this offseason..
everyone got so sensitive after 9-11... thanks alot bin laden

Re: Patriots 2018 Season
« Reply #284 on: December 17, 2018, 03:15:46 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I actually hope McDaniels takes a coaching job and sticks with it this offseason..

I used to think it was a good thing that the Pats would have continuity if Josh takes over when Bill retires.  This season has kinda soured me on that idea.  The playcalling has been really bad.
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