Anthony Davis traded to Lakers(page 272)

[nickagneta]

Not only will the trade not happen this year, it never would happen. There is zero chance that New Orleans would take on the last two years of Hayward's contract. If Hayward never gets better it's a horrid contract to have to pay. If he gets better, NO won't want him because once trading three of their top 5 players, the Pels will want to tank and won't want a good Hayward and good Horford, for that matter, ruining their tank job.

[jambr380]

I always thought a Hayward or Horford inclusion would make the most sense for salary purposes (something like Hayward/Tatum for AD/Moore), but as Nick pointed out, Hayward isn't exactly the most desirable asset/contract in the world right now. And Al would have pick up his option year to be traded from the Cs.

Also, as Nick pointed out (I think it's time for a tp), NOP would have no desire for either of those guys, so we would need to find a 3rd team who whiffs in FA to take one of them on.

As it stands, the most likely scenario is probably something like Tatum/Smart/Yab/Sac pick/Mem pick for AD. We could still possibly re-sign Rozier (to replace Smart) and Morris, but salary would be through the roof! That's why including Horford or Hayward is almost a necessity...but, you do whatever you can to acquire AD and then think about the rest later.

[trickybilly]

I like the idea of the prodigal son, Moore, returning. Guy is lights out from deep.

[rondofan1255]

I like the idea of the prodigal son, Moore, returning. Guy is lights out from deep.

summer 2020

[Csfan1984]

If C's could get Irving back as a FA I'd blow it up for Davis. In three deals try to aquire Davis and free up cap for off season to get back Irving.

Denver deal
Horford for Millsap  (a guaranteed expiring deal)

Dallas Deal
Morris and Yab
for
Wessley Mathews (SG need)

Pelicans Deal
Irving, Smart, Brown and two 1st
for
Davis and Hill (Hill is exp)

For rest of season go with
Rozier, Mathews, Hayward/Tatum, Tatum/Millsap, Davis

Next off season you sign Irving back and go with
Irving, __TBD_, Hayward, Tatum, Davis

Maybe get a ring chance resign of Millsap and a SG on the market.

[smokeablount]

Disclaimer 1: I realize there are a lot of AD threads and if this seems redundant, please mods merge as you see fit.  I am trying to put all my interpretations of this scenario in one place and a new topic seemed logical. 

Disclaimer 2: I've been seeing AD threads for years, and never thought it would/could happen.  You don't just get to pick the best, or one of the best 3 players in the NBA, and put him on your team.  Reality doesn't work that way. 

But with all the reporting and things I see going on and especially reading between the lines... it's very plausible.

Fact #1: The Celtics can objectively make either the best or second best offer for Davis on the entire market.

Tatum, Smart, Williams, Sacto pick, Memphis pick, 2-3 Celtics picks in next 4 years seems excessive but also unbeatable, even if Philly were to offer Simmons, 2021 Miami unprotected, and 2-3 of their own picks.

Fact #2: DA has been after AD for years.  He's been in constant communication with Demps. 

We all know this, but here's a source: https://boston.cbslocal.com/2018/12/17/anthony-davis-rumors-celtics-interest-adrian-wojnarowski-nba/

Speculation #2: DA has already made his general offer for DA to the Pelicans.

DA is smart, and he's been after Davis for years.  Due to the Rose Rule, we can't have Kyrie on the roster on his current deal, up this summer, and trade for Davis. 

I'm about 100% certain DA has compelled Demps not to make a trade before the deadline.  I'm fairly certain that in order to make this compelling, he either had to offer Tatum, or our entire stable of picks, prospects and young players minus Tatum (JB, Smart, Williams, 2 lottery picks and 2-4 other 1sts). 

But the bottom line is, Demps knows what Danny is willing to give up generally, and has been told to hold on.

Fact #3: AD hasn't demanded a trade as of yet, but has said he would value legacy over money.

Speculation #3: AD won't ask for a trade now, but will decline the supermax this summer.

Woj says he is hearing AD will decline this summer.  Source I think is from this video but I can't verify as I'm at work with no headphones today: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XM8TheC5-AE

Fact #4: NO isn't trading AD unless he declines the supermax.  He isn't getting traded without asking.

Deduction #1: If the Celtics can make the best offer for AD, which is likely, and AD declines his supermax, which is likely according to Woj, the Pels then have a choice between presumably Tatum and a treasure trove of picks, or nothing in a year.  Tatum is already well on his way to becoming a league golden boy, along with Simmons, and would be of great value to NO to keep the franchise relevant.  NO could sell that trade to fans.

Deduction #2: Magic, Lebron and the Lakers know this, and are working to get a deal done in the next month.

LA and Celtics being the main players: https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/anthony-davis-free-agency-rumors-nba-executives-expect-pelicans-star-to-end-up-on-lakers-or-celtics-per-report/

It sounds like they don't even want to offer all 4 young players, but even if they do, Ingram has fallen off as much as Jaylen, Ball and Hart aren't significant assets in a trade for an MVP player, and Kuzma is the prize but he's turning 24 vs 23 for JB and 21 for Tatum and has probably proven less.  If DA has made assurances, LA may not be able to make a compelling enough offer to get a deal done while the Celtics are hamstrung.

Crackpot Theory #1: LA may be holding Lebron out to showcase their young guys. 

This is an original, tin foil hat theory from me.  But my college has the most de-classified CIA files of any school and I spent a lot of time digging through them.  My nature is to look to disprove conspiracies and I don't really believe this, but it's quite interesting.  Lebron never gets hurt, he announces within earshot of media that he 'heard a pop' when normally players and teams are silent on this stuff and avoid media like the plague, Klutch Sports operates like an intelligence agency honestly, Lebron acts as a GM of his teams and Magic and him work together, Lakers assets don't look good enough but now amazingly Lebron is gone leaving Kuzma and Ingram to do the heavy lifting and Ball to get triple doubles... I mean, this stuff happens.  I have a friend who's really tight with a former Budenholzer assistant and behind the scenes stuff happens.  Is it happening here?  I dunno, but if it were ever a time to pull a move like this, getting an MVP at the expense of your historic rival and saving your / Lebron's legacy for all time, and becoming the #1 franchise ever in titles seem like adequate stakes. 

Conclusion:  I think there's a lot going on behind the scenes right now with AD.  I think if AD stays on the Pels til this summer, there's a better than 30% chance we can acquire him.  I think the Lakers are trying to snag him now, and DA is trying to prevent the Pels from doing anything. I think this will hold unless either Philly disrupts the market and makes a godfather offer around Simmons, or AD demands a trade.

Either way, I'm a believer.  I'll be watching the deadline very closely, and if AD stays... I'm cautiously optimistic.

[Rondo9]

So who has the highest chance? 

[footey]

TP Smokeablount. Good  breakdown.

One thing you need to factor in though is this: What if AD says his preference is to go to the Lakers?  That changes the odds a lot.  Given his agent, the weather and LA history of being popular destination (Simmons says all the players hang out there during the off season), that is more likely than him saying "I want to play in Boston."  Maybe that's why you only give us a 33% chance.  Would like to know how you see his 66% chance breakdown. Between the Lakers, Pels and another team.

Could Knicks offer Porsingis, Hardaway, Knox, Robinson and top 3 draft pick (they're tanking for sure)? If they nab Davis, would certainly make better sense for KD to sign as free agent there. They will have the cap space.

Don't count them out from trying.

[PhoSita]

My feeling is that the Pelicans are more likely to go a route similar to the Spurs, where they try to exchange AD for a more established player that can play alongside Holiday, Randle, Mirotic and try to stay in the mix to win a little over half their games.

If the Pels trade Davis and enter another prolonged rebuild, I kinda doubt they're going to remain in New Orleans for very long.

[celticsclay]

With regards to Lebron faking an injury, the Lakers are currently the 8 seed with 4 teams within 2.5 games behind them including the very dangerous Jazz. It was announced today that Lebron will miss at least 3 more games. This 6 game stretch could literally knock them out of the playoffs down the line. Really think they would risk that to get 10 games of extra footage on guys that played without him all of last year? That seems pretty bizarre. Probably can put that one to bed.

[smokeablount]

With regards to Lebron faking an injury, the Lakers are currently the 8 seed with 4 teams within 2.5 games behind them including the very dangerous Jazz. It was announced today that Lebron will miss at least 3 more games. This 6 game stretch could literally knock them out of the playoffs down the line. Really think they would risk that to get 10 games of extra footage on guys that played without him all of last year? That seems pretty bizarre. Probably can put that one to bed.

Yes I believe they could, under these conditions:

1) Lebron is making the ultimate decisions as long as Magic approves.

2) Lebron believes the Lakers pups aren't doing well enough to get AD, and he thinks he needs AD.

3) Lebron doesn't care about an 8 seed an 1st round loss if he can get AD which leads to a FA signing and 1-2 more titles.  Losing an 8 seed means jack to his legacy if it sets up his future.

The Lakers own their own TV rights, like the Yankees.  They will make enough money off that that a few extra playoff home games don't mean much for their revenue. 

Plus there's the obvious- he already punted on the next 4 years joining the Lakers and not the most competitive team.  Why?  To play the long game / life after basketball?  What does that tell you?  Maybe he'd sacrifice an 8 seed in year 1 when he already has a pass to acquire a chance at more rings.

Again, I don't believe it.  But do I believe an 8 seed is more important?  No way.

[smokeablount]

TP Smokeablount. Good  breakdown.

One thing you need to factor in though is this: What if AD says his preference is to go to the Lakers?  That changes the odds a lot.  Given his agent, the weather and LA history of being popular destination (Simmons says all the players hang out there during the off season), that is more likely than him saying "I want to play in Boston."  Maybe that's why you only give us a 33% chance.  Would like to know how you see his 66% chance breakdown. Between the Lakers, Pels and another team.

Could Knicks offer Porsingis, Hardaway, Knox, Robinson and top 3 draft pick (they're tanking for sure)? If they nab Davis, would certainly make better sense for KD to sign as free agent there. They will have the cap space.

Don't count them out from trying.

If he says he wants to go to the Lakers he's going to the Lakers.  That's why I set the odds at 30%, to me it's factored in.  If he doesn't say Lakers, declines the supermax and we offer Tatum, the odds jump.

Woj reported he went to Demps and asked if the Celtics had been interested in him.  Demps told him they had for years.  Woj didn't say why Davis asked or what he thought, but it's either he didn't want to go or his interest was piqued.  Insiders say it's Lakers or Celtics.  There's too much smoke now.

[smokeablount]

My feeling is that the Pelicans are more likely to go a route similar to the Spurs, where they try to exchange AD for a more established player that can play alongside Holiday, Randle, Mirotic and try to stay in the mix to win a little over half their games.

If the Pels trade Davis and enter another prolonged rebuild, I kinda doubt they're going to remain in New Orleans for very long.

You could be right, but who?  Who is going to make them better than they are now with a generational MVP player, trading him from a position of no leverage? 

Wouldn't they just stay on a worse version of the treadmill they're on?  Wouldn't fans see right through that?  Or are the owners and GMs that out of touch?

I could have blinders on, but I see Tatum as the first league-wide golden boy we've had since Bird, or KG after the fact.  I think he's incredibly marketable and as a 20 year old Tier 1 prospect, is much better than a random all star.  If you had a name or package in mind, your idea would come alive to me a bit more.

[Erik]

It's even better than that because the Pels will want to trade him to the East. You don't want to send a 25 year old star to the same conference.

[tazzmaniac]

It's even better than that because the Pels will want to trade him to the East. You don't want to send a 25 year old star to the same conference.

I don't think that will matter to the Pels.  The owner of the Pels also owns the Saints but the Saints are what the owner, and the city for that matter, cares about.