Rank our assets!

[LarBrd33]

Thanks to the Kings win tonight, it looks like (barring some teams leapfrogging us in the lotto), we got ourselves a Top 6 pick in a loaded 2014 draft.  Congrats, everyone.  Successful tankjob.  Pat yourselves on the back.  That means we're likely getting 1 of the "big time prospects" everyone has been salivating over for a year...  not just Wiggins... there's Randle, Parker, Smart, Exum, Embiid, Vonleh and Gordon.    Again, barring some flukey stuff, the highly coveted pick is going to net one of those guys.

Seems to me, our 2014 Top 6 pick is our finest asset.  It is our golden cucumber.  No player, prospect, pick, contract or exception comes close to the value that Top 6 pick holds.  This season was a success.  We got our ace chip.

So the question I have... how do you rank the rest of our pieces?  What's our most valuable trade chips?

#1 - 2014 Top 6 pick
#2 - Rondo?  28 year old fringe star on the final year of his contract being paid 12 mil.  Is he our 2nd most valuable chip?
#3 - Sully?  22 years old.  Solid prospect.  Some injury concerns, but still on his rookie deal.     
#4 - How about Olynk?  Past two months he's averaged 10+ in 20 minutes on a ridiculous 55%/46%/82% shooting.  Does the young fella have trade value?

How do the rest of our picks fit in... like our 2014 #18 pick, our two 2015 picks, our future Brooklyn picks...

Does Jeff Green have trade value or is he a negative asset?  How about Bradley?  How about Bass' expiring deal?   

Rank em!

[clover]

This is such a moving target.

I'd probably rank our assets for the purposes of building a team differently than they'd be valued on the open market.

An asset such as Rondo is difficult to judge on the open market, since for a team he doesn't want to resign with (including, potentially, the Celtics) he's worth so much less to than one he would sign with, unless he could be flipped.

That pick likely changes in value on the day of the lottery.

And, I probably value KO higher than his current worth on the open market.

As things currently stand, however, I probably go 1) Olynyk, 2) C's 2014 pick, 3) Rondo, 4) Sully, 5-7) the best of the C's remaining picks.

[PhoSita]

1. 2014 1st (BOS)
2. Rondo
3. Sullinger
4. 2015 1st (BOS)
5. 2014 1st (BRK)
6. 2015 1st (LAC)
7. Olynyk
8. Bradley
9. 2016 1st (BOS) / 2016 1st (BRK)
10. Trade exceptions / non-guaranteed contracts (Bogans, Johnson, Babb)

Might have (minimal) positive value to the right team, negative value to most teams: Jeff Green, Brandon Bass

[Mr October]

1. The 2014 top 6 pick
2. Rondo
3. Celtics 2015 first round pick
4. 2016 Brooklyn pick
5. Sully
6. 2017 celtics pick swappable for Brooklyn's pick
7. Celtics 2016 first round pick
8. 2014 Brooklyn pick
9. 2018 Brooklyn pick
10. Olynyk - nice contract for the next 3 years
11. Bradley sign and trade

In general our first round picks are more valuable than the current players.

[PhoSita]

In general our first round picks are more valuable than the current players.

Yep, spot on.

[LarBrd33]

Mr October must expect us to be awful again next season if he put our 2015 pick above Sully. 

I disagree about putting the 2016 Brooklyn pick over Sully, though.  In theory that pick will end up super valuable... but right now in Summer 2014... most teams would rather take Sully than gamble on a pick 2 years from now that might end up being a late 1st in a weak draft.

Look at it like this... if you went around and polled every GM in the league on which asset they most want from the Celtics... I feel like most would rather have Sully over that 2016 pick.   But maybe that's the homer in me... Some might think Sully isn't a long-term starter.

[PhoSita]

Mr October must expect us to be awful again next season if he put our 2015 pick above Sully. 

I think it's a couple things:

1. In general, teams in the new CBA seem to value 1st round picks a lot higher than players who aren't All-Stars.

2. Chances are, most GMs in the league expect the Celtics (a ~25 win team this year) to be a lottery team again next year.


I think there's also a good chance Sullinger is not valued quite as highly around the league as he might be around here.  I think it's possible a good number of GMs look at him and wonder "Is he just a rebounding version of Glen Davis?"

[Eddie20]

1. 2014 1st (BOS)
2. Rondo
3. Sullinger
4. 2015 1st (BOS)
5. 2014 1st (BRK)
6. 2015 1st (LAC)
7. Olynyk
8. Bradley
9. 2016 1st (BOS) / 2016 1st (BRK)
10. Trade exceptions / non-guaranteed contracts (Bogans, Johnson, Babb)

Might have (minimal) positive value to the right team, negative value to most teams: Jeff Green, Brandon Bass

That LAC pick isn't as value as Olynyk. In fact, I would say that the Sixers 2nd rd pick next year has more value than that Clips pick. Probably only a few spots will separate the picks, but the 2nd rd player will have a non-guaranteed deal.

[D.o.s.]

In general our first round picks are more valuable than the current players.

Yep, spot on.

Agreed

[Eddie20]

1. 2014 C's
2. Rondo
3. Sullinger
4. 2015 C's
5. 2017 Nets (they should be really bad)
6. 2018 Nets (see above)
7. 2014 Nets
8. 2016 Nets
9. 2016 C's
10. Olynyk
11. 2017 C's
12. 2018 Cs

[Quetzalcoatl]

This time next year this list will be awesome.

1.) Our 2014 draft pick who is probably Wiggins / Exum / Parker / Embiid / Randle / Smart / Vonleh
2.) Our 2015 1st
3.) Rondo
4.) Gerald Wallace's expiring contract
5.) Nets 2016 pick
6.) Sullinger
7.) Gerald Jeff Green's expiring contract (whoops, edited)
8.) Nets 2018 Pick
9.) Nets 2017 pick exchange rights, assuming that is tradeable
10.) Our 2016 1st
11.) Our 2017 1st
12.) Our 2018 1st
13.) Keith Bogan's expiring contract
14.) Olynyk
15.) Clip's 1st
16.) 76ers 1st or two 2nds

 

This is why I am down to tank another year.  We will be so asset stacked it's absurd.  We can swing for major players and then still have Nets picks in the lottery for three consecutive years after that.  No reason to be greedy for next year.

[#1P4P]

Limiting the ranking to current 2015 assets

#1 - BOS 2014 1st
#2 - Rondo
#3 - Sullinger
#4 - BKN 2014 1st
#5 - BOS 2015 1st
#6 - Olynyk
#7 - LAC 2015 1st
#8 - Bradley
#9 - Green
#10 - Bass

Lists, in general, are subjective, but especially these types. Rondo might be #1 for one team and #8 for another. Sacramento and Houston's reported offer for Rondo was surprising and impressive, as I had under estimated his trade value. 1st rounders are as flexible an asset as there is in the league, making it the easiest to rank. The question to ask is, would team B trade us #1 for #2?

[Smokeeye123]

One of the Nets picks is going to end up being top 10 unless they somehow get Durant or something.

[Smokeeye123]

Limiting the ranking to current 2015 assets

#1 - BOS 2014 1st
#2 - Rondo
#3 - Sullinger
#4 - BKN 2014 1st
#5 - BOS 2015 1st
#6 - Olynyk
#7 - LAC 2015 1st
#8 - Bradley
#9 - Green
#10 - Bass

Lists, in general, are subjective, but especially these types. Rondo might be #1 for one team and #8 for another. Sacramento and Houston's reported offer for Rondo was surprising and impressive, as I had under estimated his trade value. 1st rounders are as flexible an asset as there is in the league, making it the easiest to rank. The question to ask is, would team B trade us #1 for #2?

The brooklyn #18 pick is more valuable than our pick next year which will probably be late Lotto?

[LarBrd33]

Limiting the ranking to current 2015 assets

#1 - BOS 2014 1st
#2 - Rondo
#3 - Sullinger
#4 - BKN 2014 1st
#5 - BOS 2015 1st
#6 - Olynyk
#7 - LAC 2015 1st
#8 - Bradley
#9 - Green
#10 - Bass

Lists, in general, are subjective, but especially these types. Rondo might be #1 for one team and #8 for another. Sacramento and Houston's reported offer for Rondo was surprising and impressive, as I had under estimated his trade value. 1st rounders are as flexible an asset as there is in the league, making it the easiest to rank. The question to ask is, would team B trade us #1 for #2?

The brooklyn #18 pick is more valuable than our pick next year which will probably be late Lotto?

I'd guess the immediacy of the 2014 Brooklyn pick makes it more valuable... but there's a good chance our 2015 pick will be Top 5.   Our team was awful this year... if we decide to trade Rondo and build around Vonleh, it will take us a few years minimum to build up.