The Warriors are in serious trouble of losing the number one seed. They're now only three games up on SAS. However, they've played two more games than GS, and they still have two more games IN San Antonio.
So if San Antonio can win those two extra games that the Warriors have played over them AND beat the Warriors twice in San Antonio, then they will have a tied record with San Antonio having the tiebreaker. Losing homecourt in the WCF could potentially be huge for the Warriors.
If Durant is back and healthy, which is a big if, does it even matter?
Oh, for sure. The 2 seed is a nightmare scenario for the Warriors and presents a much, much more difficult path than the 1 seed.
First off, there's no guarantee that he's even back at all. He's being reevaluated in four weeks, but he's out indefinitely with no timetable for his return. Who knows when he'll actually be back.
But most expect him to be back, but it'll be sometime during the actual playoffs, whether that be the first or second round. But if they fall to the 2nd seed, then things get a whole lot more complicated for them.
While they would still handle Denver easily at the 8th seed, there's a pretty tight race in the 4-7 seed right now with 4 teams (Utah, LAC, Memphis, and OKC) separated by only 1.5 games. While I still think they'd beat Utah and OKC, though in tough first round matchups, they could very well lose to Memphis, who is an absolute nightmare matchup for them and has already beaten them twice this year, and the Clippers, who also present matchup problems for them with Durant out.
I'd go as far as saying this - without KD in the first round, they probably beat Utah in 6 games and OKC in a very tough 6 or 7 game battle. As for the Clippers, that's a 50/50 series for me if the Clippers are actually healthy. I could see it going either way. But I think Memphis pulls the upset if they draw a KD-less Warriors team in the first round. They're just too big and physical for the Warriors, and they're pretty much set up perfectly to defeat them.
And that's just the first round. Dropping to second would mean a second round matchup with Houston, which would be very entertaining and close. And even if they do advance to the WCF, with or without Durant, who still will take awhile to get back into playing shape and rhythm, they could very well lose to a very good Spurs team that has home court advantage.
So here's the comparison:
1 seed gets you - Denver in the first round (easy win), a 2nd round matchup most likely with a Clippers team, who you've handled easily WITH Durant this year, and home court advantage in the WCF.
2 seed gets you - OKC/Memphis/Utah/LAC (ranging from tough out to extremely dangerous first round matchup), a 2nd round matchup with a Rockets team that has beat you at home this year, and no home court advantage in the WCF.
People are sleeping on how devastating dropping to the 2 seed would be for Golden State, especially with much uncertainty about when KD will actually come back.
