This is going to be a little scattered, but I have some thoughts I'd like some opinions on.
Brad Stevens has always been remarkably effective at getting the most out of lesser talent. Consider the first year he took the Celtics to the playoffs in 2014-15 with a 40-42 record. His starting line-up in the playoffs was Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley, Evan Turner, Brandon Bass and Tyler Zeller. Thomas and Sullinger also got significant bench minutes. In the case of Sullinger and Bass, they aren't even in the league anymore. Zeller is effectively out of the league as well. Brad essentially made scrubs into viable playoff talent.
A couple years later you see Brad getting career seasons out of players like Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder. I remember us having conversations about how Crowder's per-36 stacked up with Hayward and how Avery Bradley was giving you 80% of what Jimmy Butler was capable of. Neither has reached that level since leaving Boston. Likewise, obviously, for Isaiah Thomas.
Last year, injuries paved the way for a "Next Man Up" philosophy to kick in. Across the board we have peak overachieving. Without Kyrie or Hayward, the team played at a respectable 48 win pace, knocked off the Bucks in 7 games, embarrassed Philly, and had a fun series vs Cavs (who also let a team take them to 7 games in Round 1).
Kudos to Brad Stevens for once again getting more with less.
Based on that, we had lofty expectations for this season. There was no shame in expecting Hayward to return to an all-star level, Brown continuing his strong progression to stardom, and Tatum, a superstar prospect, making the 2nd year massive leap other superstar prospects made before him. Check out how guys like Durant, LeBron and Davis progressed between year 1 and 2 - the hope was that Tatum would do the same.
Coming into this season, there was no shame in believing that this team could be the Golden State Warriors East.
- Kyrie = Our Steph
- Hayward = Our Klay
- Tatum = Our Durant (if he made the 2nd year leap)
- Horford = Our Draymond
Plus we'd have Brown to counter the addition of Boogie, and a loaded bench lead by a borderline star in Terry Rozier.
We base these ideas on what these guys have done statistically. It's not a stretch to expect Kyrie, who put up huge stats with 50/40/90 efficiency, to give us 85% of Steph. Hayward in his final season in Utah likewise put up huge numbers with near 50/40/90 efficiency - hoping for him to slot into the Klay role (if healthy) wasn't ridiculous. Tatum had just averaged 18 points efficiently in the playoffs, including averaging 23 in the Philly series and going toe to toe with LeBron in Game 7. I stand by my Summer comments that 1st year Tatum was the spitting image of 1st year Kevin Durant on the Sonics. Be mindful that rookie Durant shot 43% form the field and 29% from three. He had more shot opportunities and minutes, but we saw enough from Tatum that rookie season that made them roughly equivalent. Durant himself brought up the difference in his rookie role compared to Tatum when saying that Tatum had an MVP ceiling. The difference, of course, is that Durant made the superstar leap in year 2 seeing his stats and efficiency dramatically improve ... and Tatum has failed to do that.
So what did we end up with instead? Since stats so frequently color our perception of these players, I thought it would be an interesting exercise to find players this year who are putting up roughly equivalent stats to our players. It might help give us some perspective.
Let me know what you guys think of these comps or have better ones...
Kyrie = Lillard
- Kyrie Irving: 24.4 points, 7 assists, 5.1 rebounds, 1.5 steals .492/.401/.867 in 33.mpg
- Damian Lillard: 26.3 points, 6.7 assists, 4.5 rebounds, 1.2 steals .453/.377/.910 in 35.5mpg
Horford = Marc Gasol
- Al Horford: 13.2 points, 6.7 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.3 blocks .529/.358/.808 in 28.9mpg
- Marc Gasol: 14.1 points, 8.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.1 blocks, .448/.347/.759 in 31.5mpg
Morris = Jerami Grant
- Marcus Morris: 14.2 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists .459/.385/.836 in 28mpg
- Jerami Grant: 13.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1 assist .502/.383/.709 in 32.5mpg
Tatum = Rudy Gay
- Jayson Tatum: 15.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2 assists, .450/.359/.869 in 31.3mpg
- Rudy Gay: 14.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, 2.7 assists, .511/.418/.826 in 26.9mpg
Smart = this is hard as crap, because his impact is beyond stats, but how about Houston's "swiss army knife" PJ Tucker?
- Marcus Smart: 8.6 points, 2.9 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.8 steals .419/.365/.802 in 27.5mpg
- PJ Tucker: 7.4 points, 6 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.7 steals .400/.378/.673 in 34.mpg
------------
Jaylen = Gary Harris
- Jaylen Brown: 13.2 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1 steal .466/.342/.669 in 26mpg
- Gary Harris: 13.6 points, 3 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1 steal .427/.346/.797 in 28.6mpg
Hayward = Will Barton
- Gordon Hayward:10.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.4 assists .448/.335/.825 in 25.4mpg
- Will Barton: 12.5 points, 5 rebounds, 3.2 assists .414/.353/.831 in 28.2mpg
Rozier = Cory Joseph
- Terry Rozier: 9.3 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal .393/.356/.788 in 22.9mpg
- Cory Joseph: 6.8 points, 3.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.1 steals .424/.333/.667 in 25.3mpg
-----------------
Alright, look... that's not perfect so please let me know if you have better comps, but I think that's actually pretty [dang] fair. Every comp I used is someone contributing to a playoff team.
Here's the question for you...
Imagine this team:
Starters: Damian Lillard, PJ Tucker, Rudy Gay, Jerami Grant, Marc Gasol
Bench: Gary Harris, Will Barton, Cory Joseph
... Imagine that team has some random coach like Quin Snyder.
How many games, would you expect that team to win? Wouldn't it make total sense for them to be be 43-30 right now as a 5th seed? Would there be any reason to believe that Lillard, Gasol, Gay and some role players would be able to flip a switch and steamroll the conference?
I mean, really... isn't the only wildcard we have Brad Stevens and the fact that he has consistently messed up stat models and projections by getting players to play with 150% effort/execution and overachieve? You give Brad Stevens that group of Lillard, Gay and Gasol... sure maybe they occassionally knock off more talented teams like the Raptors, Philly, Warriors and Bucks. Maybe they have a fighting chance of going to the Finals. But from a pure talent standpoint - isn't it fair to say that these guys are playing at a level that actually makes sense logically?
Would love some thoughts on this. Thanks.
TL;DR: Would a record of 43-30 make sense if you were watching Quinn Snyder coach a roster of Lillard, Tucker, Gay, Grant and Gasol?