Tatum's regression

[Never Nervous Pervis]

I think we can all agree that Tatum's inability to make the leap from rookie sensation to potential all-star was one of the most disappointing parts of the season. He didn't have a bad year, to be fair, he just didn't grow into the player we all expected. He seemed lethargic for long stretches; he took too many long twos; he danced too much in ISO; he took too many shots falling away, off one leg; and he whined to the refs after every play, which, for me was infuriating.

So what happened?

1. Kyrie & Hayward returned. Hard to put too much stock in this, as Tatum averaged three more shots per game this year. In fact, his stats were all up from his rookie campaign, except for three-point %, which dropped 6%.

2. He picked up some bad habits from Kobe. Kobe's video analysis of Tatum's game last spring was spot-on, and Tatum got better afterward, so it's hard to imagine Kobe giving him bad advice when they worked out together, or tried to ruin his game because of the Lakers-Celtics rivalry.

3. His head got too big after a strong playoff run, culminating in that dunk on Lebron. I didn't see arrogance from Tatum this year, just a lack of focus, energy and confidence.

4. His son was born. There's probably something to this, as sleep deprivation is real, but it's not the main reason he disappointed, I don't think.

5. The team's mysterious, season-long funk affected everyone. Probably true. This team just never clicked except for a few, small stretches.

6. Opponents figured out his game, and he never adjusted. Probably some truth to this. His spin moves weren't as effective, his ball-handling was inconsistent, and he didn't seem to create the same separation getting his mid-range shot off.

Any other theories? What do you want him focusing on this summer?

[Fafnir]

One thing you don't mention, his shot profile on threes.

Less catch and shoot threes, more threes off the dribble. He mildly regressed on the catch and shoot threes and took more of the bounce. This isn't a terrible thing, when you handle the ball you need to be able to take threes off the dribble. But it hurt his efficiency.

[cons]

i think mostly he's just a young player and got blitzed by a difficult team situation w ill defined roles and general in fighting.
 the talent is still there. in the right situation he will shine again. I'm hoping for addition by subtraction. get rid of some of the guys - mostly kyrie - and let tatum flourish again.

[Bobshot]

I don't see it as a regression.

Sophomore slumps are common in sports, but more likely his role was altered by the presence of Hayward and others competing for playing time.  Last year, with all the injuries, he had a bigger role.

[Never Nervous Pervis]

One thing you don't mention, his shot profile on threes.

Less catch and shoot threes, more threes off the dribble. He mildly regressed on the catch and shoot threes and took more of the bounce. This isn't a terrible thing, when you handle the ball you need to be able to take threes off the dribble. But it hurt his efficiency.

Great point. I wonder why this is, though? With the talent this year and the return of two shot creators, you'd think his catch-and-shoot threes would have gone up significantly.

[mr. dee]

Exposed is probably the right term. Team have finally scouted him and he barely made a development in his game. Adding up muscles and post up game will do wonders for him.

[Fafnir]

One thing you don't mention, his shot profile on threes.

Less catch and shoot threes, more threes off the dribble. He mildly regressed on the catch and shoot threes and took more of the bounce. This isn't a terrible thing, when you handle the ball you need to be able to take threes off the dribble. But it hurt his efficiency.

Great point. I wonder why this is, though? With the talent this year and the return of two shot creators, you'd think his catch-and-shoot threes would have gone up significantly.

The team was having him run more of the offense on the ball, especially early in the season. The Celtics coaching staff clearly wants some of its players taking the off the dribble threes when teams drop the big or just go under screens.

Kyrie/Tatum/Hayward were all coached to take off the bounce threes this way I'm pretty sure, maybe more players too not sure who got the green light and who didn't. I don't view this aspect of his shot selection as bad, the one dribble into 20 footers and some of his more adventurous isos however.....

[Ogaju]

He did not get stronger.... no muscle mass. .too soft. He need to go on the GA strength program.

[ImShakHeIsShaq]

Tatum had his son in January 2018. sleep didn't bother his play most of the 2017-18 season.

[Never Nervous Pervis]

Tatum had his son in January 2018. sleep didn't bother his play most of the 2017-18 season.

Settles that.

[liam]

Tatums scoring was per game 13 pts last year 15 pts this year, 5 rbs last year, 6rbs this year, 49% FG last year 48% this year, FT% 82% last 85% this, 3pt 43% last year 37% this year, Ast 1 last year 2 this year I'm not seeing a regression. The only step back I see is that 3pt % but 37% is still quite good.

[CelticsElite]

I refuse to believe kobe didn't damage the guy. Kobe  analysis is garbage. An entire summer of training with a ball hog

[droopdog7]

Regarding sophomore slumps, I feel like they happen to guys that overachieved their first year.  A sort of regression to to mean.

How many big stars actually slumped in their second years?  I don’t mean guys that took the long road like butler or Lowry (who’s second year I have no clue on anyway), but guys they become true superstars like so many expected of Tatum?

I don’t think there is any question that some of the shine came off Tatum this year.

[keevsnick]

Tatums scoring was per game 13 pts last year 15 pts this year, 5 rbs last year, 6rbs this year, 49% FG last year 48% this year, FT% 82% last 85% this, 3pt 43% last year 37% this year, Ast 1 last year 2 this year I'm not seeing a regression. The only step back I see is that 3pt % but 37% is still quite good.

I think he was also about 10% worse on defense, but you do make a good point. People are confusing "regression" with not making a leap. Tatum didn't regress, he just failed to get meaningfully better. Improvement of young players is not always linear.

[konkmv]

regression? are you serious? the team was a mess... too many A dogs... that does not mean he regressed... with the exception of doncic i do not think i want another young guy to replace him or brown.. they are perfect