Jaylen Brown looks like a 2-way star

[nickagneta]

An update on him from after the Pistons game:

Brown after 26 games:

19.9 PPG
6.9 RPG
2.3 APG
1.2 SPG
50.4% FG%
37.7% 3PT%
76.1% FT%
60.3% TS%

Anyone else...besides me....predict this for Jaylen.
Thems All-Star numbers right there, especially when you also consider his excellent defense as well as his versatility on the defensive end.

[keevsnick]

I thought he was Jeff Green 2??

Bunch of Brown non-believers said that as a way to take a swipe at him. I never got the comparison in any way.

This comparison should have come with a trigger warning because every time I read it I literally blacked out from rage. Besides both being athletic and having a last name that is also a color the two have/had/never will have anything in common.

[nickagneta]

Amongst guards that play more than 25 MPG, Brown is 13th in the league in TS%. That is pretty amazing given where Brown came from when he entered the league. Very impressive if he can maintain it.

[tstorey_97]

An update on him from after the Pistons game:

Brown after 26 games:

19.9 PPG
6.9 RPG
2.3 APG
1.2 SPG
50.4% FG%
37.7% 3PT%
76.1% FT%
60.3% TS%

Anyone else...besides me....predict this for Jaylen.
Thems All-Star numbers right there, especially when you also consider his excellent defense as well as his versatility on the defensive end.

Nick TP,

Every time you post this you make Brown better!

Keep'em coming!

[gouki88]

I thought he was Jeff Green 2??

Bunch of Brown non-believers said that as a way to take a swipe at him. I never got the comparison in any way.

This comparison should have come with a trigger warning because every time I read it I literally blacked out from rage. Besides both being athletic and having a last name that is also a color the two have/had/never will have anything in common.

They both play in the NBA!

[Somebody]

Amongst guards that play more than 25 MPG, Brown is 13th in the league in TS%. That is pretty amazing given where Brown came from when he entered the league. Very impressive if he can maintain it.

This is some really good stuff, if he maintains this top of the pack efficiency while upping his volume to 23-25 points per 75 possessions (he's around 21.5 rn) and show flashes of a passing game in his current secondary creator role I can see an argument for him being the best player on this squad (he's probably there already, I think the past few games had him producing such numbers while passing the eye test as a secondary creator).

[keevsnick]

Amongst guards that play more than 25 MPG, Brown is 13th in the league in TS%. That is pretty amazing given where Brown came from when he entered the league. Very impressive if he can maintain it.

So instead of minutes per game I looked at guards and usage. Among guards with a usage of 21% or more Brown has the 6th highest TS % in the NBA. The five guys above him are Harden, Booker, Doncic, Lillard, Fournier and I would say Brown is clearly the bester defender of that group.

Or if you consider him a forward and use the same restrictions (throw in 18 or more games to rule out some small sample guys) he is also 7th in the league behind Giannis, Doncic, George, Bogdanovic, Fournier, Gallinari. He's probably the third best defender in that group and 2nd youngest.

[Somebody]

Amongst guards that play more than 25 MPG, Brown is 13th in the league in TS%. That is pretty amazing given where Brown came from when he entered the league. Very impressive if he can maintain it.

So instead of minutes per game I looked at guards and usage. Among guards with a usage of 21% or more Brown has the 6th highest TS % in the NBA. The five guys above him are Harden, Booker, Doncic, Lillard, Fournier and I would say Brown is clearly the bester defender of that group.

Or if you consider him a forward and use the same restrictions (throw in 18 or more games to rule out some small sample guys) he is also 7th in the league behind Giannis, Doncic, George, Bogdanovic, Fournier, Gallinari. He's probably the third best defender in that group and 2nd youngest.

I'm all for praising Brown (I'm one of his biggest fans in this forum), but I think some of the stats you threw out there need context. Brown's efficiency for his usage rate is nuts but the guys above him are in a different universe, even in terms of pure scoring. Jaylen's ideal role in an offence is a secondary creator who feeds off of one high volume scorer who has good tablesetting skills (eg. Kemba), he doesn't move defences with his scoring like offensive engines such as Harden/Doncic/Booker/Lillard.
 
This is where usage rate fails to capture a player's playstyle (and to an extent offensive impact): it only measures shot attempts and not how long and how frequent a player holds the ball, this is how people look at the stat sheet and mistakenly believe that ball dominant engines like Magic Johnson don't introduce redundancies on good sides with teammates that need the ball as well (this is not a swipe at Magic, he's still the greatest PG of all time imo).

[rondofan1255]

I thought he was Jeff Green 2??

If this is Jeff Green 2.0, hopefully the Grizzlies pick will be used on Jeff Green 3.0

[Hoopvortex]

Amongst guards that play more than 25 MPG, Brown is 13th in the league in TS%. That is pretty amazing given where Brown came from when he entered the league. Very impressive if he can maintain it.

So instead of minutes per game I looked at guards and usage. Among guards with a usage of 21% or more Brown has the 6th highest TS % in the NBA. The five guys above him are Harden, Booker, Doncic, Lillard, Fournier and I would say Brown is clearly the bester defender of that group.

Or if you consider him a forward and use the same restrictions (throw in 18 or more games to rule out some small sample guys) he is also 7th in the league behind Giannis, Doncic, George, Bogdanovic, Fournier, Gallinari. He's probably the third best defender in that group and 2nd youngest.

I'm all for praising Brown (I'm one of his biggest fans in this forum), but I think some of the stats you threw out there need context. Brown's efficiency for his usage rate is nuts but the guys above him are in a different universe, even in terms of pure scoring. Jaylen's ideal role in an offence is a secondary creator who feeds off of one high volume scorer who has good tablesetting skills (eg. Kemba), he doesn't move defences with his scoring like offensive engines such as Harden/Doncic/Booker/Lillard.
 
This is where usage rate fails to capture a player's playstyle (and to an extent offensive impact): it only measures shot attempts and not how long and how frequent a player holds the ball, this is how people look at the stat sheet and mistakenly believe that ball dominant engines like Magic Johnson don't introduce redundancies on good sides with teammates that need the ball as well (this is not a swipe at Magic, he's still the greatest PG of all time imo).

Usage rate includes possessions that end in turnovers or assists as well as shot attempts.

Basketball Reference defines it as: “An estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor“.

[Somebody]

Amongst guards that play more than 25 MPG, Brown is 13th in the league in TS%. That is pretty amazing given where Brown came from when he entered the league. Very impressive if he can maintain it.

So instead of minutes per game I looked at guards and usage. Among guards with a usage of 21% or more Brown has the 6th highest TS % in the NBA. The five guys above him are Harden, Booker, Doncic, Lillard, Fournier and I would say Brown is clearly the bester defender of that group.

Or if you consider him a forward and use the same restrictions (throw in 18 or more games to rule out some small sample guys) he is also 7th in the league behind Giannis, Doncic, George, Bogdanovic, Fournier, Gallinari. He's probably the third best defender in that group and 2nd youngest.

I'm all for praising Brown (I'm one of his biggest fans in this forum), but I think some of the stats you threw out there need context. Brown's efficiency for his usage rate is nuts but the guys above him are in a different universe, even in terms of pure scoring. Jaylen's ideal role in an offence is a secondary creator who feeds off of one high volume scorer who has good tablesetting skills (eg. Kemba), he doesn't move defences with his scoring like offensive engines such as Harden/Doncic/Booker/Lillard.
 
This is where usage rate fails to capture a player's playstyle (and to an extent offensive impact): it only measures shot attempts and not how long and how frequent a player holds the ball, this is how people look at the stat sheet and mistakenly believe that ball dominant engines like Magic Johnson don't introduce redundancies on good sides with teammates that need the ball as well (this is not a swipe at Magic, he's still the greatest PG of all time imo).

Usage rate includes possessions that end in turnovers or assists as well as shot attempts.

Basketball Reference defines it as: “An estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor“.

Ah yes, apologies. But it still doesn't really capture the offensive load a player shoulders since it will disproportionately penalise finishers with high usage rates since they'll be the ones who usually "finish" possessions, whether it results in a TO or shot attempt, while creators would be underrepresented by it because not every possession they manage would result in an assist or TO.

This article describes how usage rate doesn't point out which players drive the offence the most pretty well:
https://backpicks.com/2017/10/16/offensive-load-and-adjusted-tov/

[keevsnick]

Amongst guards that play more than 25 MPG, Brown is 13th in the league in TS%. That is pretty amazing given where Brown came from when he entered the league. Very impressive if he can maintain it.

So instead of minutes per game I looked at guards and usage. Among guards with a usage of 21% or more Brown has the 6th highest TS % in the NBA. The five guys above him are Harden, Booker, Doncic, Lillard, Fournier and I would say Brown is clearly the bester defender of that group.

Or if you consider him a forward and use the same restrictions (throw in 18 or more games to rule out some small sample guys) he is also 7th in the league behind Giannis, Doncic, George, Bogdanovic, Fournier, Gallinari. He's probably the third best defender in that group and 2nd youngest.

I'm all for praising Brown (I'm one of his biggest fans in this forum), but I think some of the stats you threw out there need context. Brown's efficiency for his usage rate is nuts but the guys above him are in a different universe, even in terms of pure scoring. Jaylen's ideal role in an offence is a secondary creator who feeds off of one high volume scorer who has good tablesetting skills (eg. Kemba), he doesn't move defences with his scoring like offensive engines such as Harden/Doncic/Booker/Lillard.
 
This is where usage rate fails to capture a player's playstyle (and to an extent offensive impact): it only measures shot attempts and not how long and how frequent a player holds the ball, this is how people look at the stat sheet and mistakenly believe that ball dominant engines like Magic Johnson don't introduce redundancies on good sides with teammates that need the ball as well (this is not a swipe at Magic, he's still the greatest PG of all time imo).

Oh for sure, I'm not arguing that Jaylen is in the same class as guys like Doncic, Giannis, Lillard, Harden ect. Those guys all have higher TS% AND higher usage rates and are far better creators than Jaylen is right now. I think what this stat  tells you is that Jaylen has been elite as a secondary type scorer which is still an important aspect to a successful team. It may also indicate that Jaylen has in some sense maxed out his impact without improvement to his passing game. I'v made this argument  about Tatum a lot, but the same applied to Jaylen. To be a true lead offensive option both guys likely have to improve their passing skills and vision, because that A) make you harder to guard b) allows you to be the main engine of a good offense, rather than just a good secondary piece.

I dont really care about the distinction between what US% does or does not capture because in this context I was only using it to weed out low usage guys who might simply have a high TS% because of a small(er) offensive load.

[Somebody]

Amongst guards that play more than 25 MPG, Brown is 13th in the league in TS%. That is pretty amazing given where Brown came from when he entered the league. Very impressive if he can maintain it.

So instead of minutes per game I looked at guards and usage. Among guards with a usage of 21% or more Brown has the 6th highest TS % in the NBA. The five guys above him are Harden, Booker, Doncic, Lillard, Fournier and I would say Brown is clearly the bester defender of that group.

Or if you consider him a forward and use the same restrictions (throw in 18 or more games to rule out some small sample guys) he is also 7th in the league behind Giannis, Doncic, George, Bogdanovic, Fournier, Gallinari. He's probably the third best defender in that group and 2nd youngest.

I'm all for praising Brown (I'm one of his biggest fans in this forum), but I think some of the stats you threw out there need context. Brown's efficiency for his usage rate is nuts but the guys above him are in a different universe, even in terms of pure scoring. Jaylen's ideal role in an offence is a secondary creator who feeds off of one high volume scorer who has good tablesetting skills (eg. Kemba), he doesn't move defences with his scoring like offensive engines such as Harden/Doncic/Booker/Lillard.
 
This is where usage rate fails to capture a player's playstyle (and to an extent offensive impact): it only measures shot attempts and not how long and how frequent a player holds the ball, this is how people look at the stat sheet and mistakenly believe that ball dominant engines like Magic Johnson don't introduce redundancies on good sides with teammates that need the ball as well (this is not a swipe at Magic, he's still the greatest PG of all time imo).

Oh for sure, I'm not arguing that Jaylen is in the same class as guys like Doncic, Giannis, Lillard, Harden ect. Those guys all have higher TS% AND higher usage rates and are far better creators than Jaylen is right now. I think what this stat  tells you is that Jaylen has been elite as a secondary type scorer which is still an important aspect to a successful team. It may also indicate that Jaylen has in some sense maxed out his impact without improvement to his passing game. I'v made this argument  about Tatum a lot, but the same applied to Jaylen. To be a true lead offensive option both guys likely have to improve their passing skills and vision, because that A) make you harder to guard b) allows you to be the main engine of a good offense, rather than just a good secondary piece.

I dont really care about the distinction between what US% does or does not capture because in this context I was only using it to weed out low usage guys who might simply have a high TS% because of a small(er) offensive load.

Ah okay, yeah we agree on quite a lot of things about Brown then.

[keevsnick]

Amongst guards that play more than 25 MPG, Brown is 13th in the league in TS%. That is pretty amazing given where Brown came from when he entered the league. Very impressive if he can maintain it.

So instead of minutes per game I looked at guards and usage. Among guards with a usage of 21% or more Brown has the 6th highest TS % in the NBA. The five guys above him are Harden, Booker, Doncic, Lillard, Fournier and I would say Brown is clearly the bester defender of that group.

Or if you consider him a forward and use the same restrictions (throw in 18 or more games to rule out some small sample guys) he is also 7th in the league behind Giannis, Doncic, George, Bogdanovic, Fournier, Gallinari. He's probably the third best defender in that group and 2nd youngest.

I'm all for praising Brown (I'm one of his biggest fans in this forum), but I think some of the stats you threw out there need context. Brown's efficiency for his usage rate is nuts but the guys above him are in a different universe, even in terms of pure scoring. Jaylen's ideal role in an offence is a secondary creator who feeds off of one high volume scorer who has good tablesetting skills (eg. Kemba), he doesn't move defences with his scoring like offensive engines such as Harden/Doncic/Booker/Lillard.
 
This is where usage rate fails to capture a player's playstyle (and to an extent offensive impact): it only measures shot attempts and not how long and how frequent a player holds the ball, this is how people look at the stat sheet and mistakenly believe that ball dominant engines like Magic Johnson don't introduce redundancies on good sides with teammates that need the ball as well (this is not a swipe at Magic, he's still the greatest PG of all time imo).

Oh for sure, I'm not arguing that Jaylen is in the same class as guys like Doncic, Giannis, Lillard, Harden ect. Those guys all have higher TS% AND higher usage rates and are far better creators than Jaylen is right now. I think what this stat  tells you is that Jaylen has been elite as a secondary type scorer which is still an important aspect to a successful team. It may also indicate that Jaylen has in some sense maxed out his impact without improvement to his passing game. I'v made this argument  about Tatum a lot, but the same applied to Jaylen. To be a true lead offensive option both guys likely have to improve their passing skills and vision, because that A) make you harder to guard b) allows you to be the main engine of a good offense, rather than just a good secondary piece.

I dont really care about the distinction between what US% does or does not capture because in this context I was only using it to weed out low usage guys who might simply have a high TS% because of a small(er) offensive load.

Ah okay, yeah we agree on quite a lot of things about Brown then.

For sure, personally I am fairly confident he will become a better passer with time and opportunity. He's already improved his finishing/ball handling/shooting/defensive lapses/post defense/fighting threw screens and it seems like he's AWARE that its something he needs to work on. The question is how much he improves, that will likely determine whether he's a number one, number two, or number three option long term.

[18isGREATERthan72]

Amongst guards that play more than 25 MPG, Brown is 13th in the league in TS%. That is pretty amazing given where Brown came from when he entered the league. Very impressive if he can maintain it.

So instead of minutes per game I looked at guards and usage. Among guards with a usage of 21% or more Brown has the 6th highest TS % in the NBA. The five guys above him are Harden, Booker, Doncic, Lillard, Fournier and I would say Brown is clearly the bester defender of that group.

Or if you consider him a forward and use the same restrictions (throw in 18 or more games to rule out some small sample guys) he is also 7th in the league behind Giannis, Doncic, George, Bogdanovic, Fournier, Gallinari. He's probably the third best defender in that group and 2nd youngest.

I'm all for praising Brown (I'm one of his biggest fans in this forum), but I think some of the stats you threw out there need context. Brown's efficiency for his usage rate is nuts but the guys above him are in a different universe, even in terms of pure scoring. Jaylen's ideal role in an offence is a secondary creator who feeds off of one high volume scorer who has good tablesetting skills (eg. Kemba), he doesn't move defences with his scoring like offensive engines such as Harden/Doncic/Booker/Lillard.
 
This is where usage rate fails to capture a player's playstyle (and to an extent offensive impact): it only measures shot attempts and not how long and how frequent a player holds the ball, this is how people look at the stat sheet and mistakenly believe that ball dominant engines like Magic Johnson don't introduce redundancies on good sides with teammates that need the ball as well (this is not a swipe at Magic, he's still the greatest PG of all time imo).

Oh for sure, I'm not arguing that Jaylen is in the same class as guys like Doncic, Giannis, Lillard, Harden ect. Those guys all have higher TS% AND higher usage rates and are far better creators than Jaylen is right now. I think what this stat  tells you is that Jaylen has been elite as a secondary type scorer which is still an important aspect to a successful team. It may also indicate that Jaylen has in some sense maxed out his impact without improvement to his passing game. I'v made this argument  about Tatum a lot, but the same applied to Jaylen. To be a true lead offensive option both guys likely have to improve their passing skills and vision, because that A) make you harder to guard b) allows you to be the main engine of a good offense, rather than just a good secondary piece.

I dont really care about the distinction between what US% does or does not capture because in this context I was only using it to weed out low usage guys who might simply have a high TS% because of a small(er) offensive load.

Ah okay, yeah we agree on quite a lot of things about Brown then.

For sure, personally I am fairly confident he will become a better passer with time and opportunity. He's already improved his finishing/ball handling/shooting/defensive lapses/post defense/fighting threw screens and it seems like he's AWARE that its something he needs to work on. The question is how much he improves, that will likely determine whether he's a number one, number two, or number three option long term.

I would argue his passing has already improved a lot.  He still has a long way to go obviously, but ignoring his counting stats, I can recall a handful of really impressive passes he's made this season that would have been impossible for him even last year.