2023 extension option for Jaylen...

[Roy H.]

Keith Smith looks at all of the potential extension options for JB, whether it be this year, next year, or entering free agency:

https://www.spotrac.com/research/nba/next-contract-series-jaylen-brown-1572/

I found this interesting:

If Brown were to qualify for the Designated Veteran Extension, his salary would jump the 30% of the salary cap maximum tier and would go to the 35% of the salary cap maximum tier. We’re using a conservative projection of $143 million for the 2024-25 season. That extension would look like this:

2024-25: $50,050,000
2025-26: $54,054,000
2026-27: $58,058,000
2027-28: $62,062,000
2028-29: $66,066,000
Total: Five years, $290,290,000

That’s 35% of the $143 million projected cap for 2024-25 with 8% raises on subsequent seasons.

JB becomes eligible for that extension if he makes an All-NBA team.

Meanwhile, if we just give him a 5-year deal as soon as he hits free agency, it looks like this:

2024-25: $42,900,000
2025-26: $46,332,000
2026-27: $49,764,000
2027-28: $53,196,000
2027-28: $56,628,000
Total: Five years, $248,820,000

Meanwhile, another team could offer approximately:

2024-25: $42,900,000
2025-26: $45,045,000
2026-27: $47,190,000
2027-28: $49,335,000
Total: Four years, $184,470,000

Let's assume JB makes All-NBA third team next season.   What do you offer him for five years?

[Csfan1984]

Depends on his improvement and how the team performed.

[Celtics2021]

One relevant thing is that a new media deal comes into play for the 2025-2026 season, and projections have the cap jumping that year to $170 million or more.  So Jaylen’s year 2 salary would be closer to 31-32% of the cap, and maybe even a bit lower.  So if you don’t think Jaylen is a 35% cap-type player, but is a 30%-player, he’d only be substantially overpaid for a season.

[Roy H.]

Depends on his improvement and how the team performed.

My guess is that if JB makes All-NBA, both he and the team looked pretty good.

[Roy H.]

One relevant thing is that a new media deal comes into play for the 2025-2026 season, and projections have the cap jumping that year to $170 million or more.  So Jaylen’s year 2 salary would be closer to 31-32% of the cap, and maybe even a bit lower.  So if you don’t think Jaylen is a 35% cap-type player, but is a 30%-player, he’d only be substantially overpaid for a season.

That's interesting.  Would you offer him the full designated player extension if he makes All-NBA?  Offer somewhere between $290 million and $249 million?  Or just give him the typical 30% max?

[wdleehi]

If he improves to the point where he is all-NBA, give him his max.  Lock him up and keep him happy.

[Celtics2021]

One relevant thing is that a new media deal comes into play for the 2025-2026 season, and projections have the cap jumping that year to $170 million or more.  So Jaylen’s year 2 salary would be closer to 31-32% of the cap, and maybe even a bit lower.  So if you don’t think Jaylen is a 35% cap-type player, but is a 30%-player, he’d only be substantially overpaid for a season.

That's interesting.  Would you offer him the full designated player extension if he makes All-NBA?  Offer somewhere between $290 million and $249 million?  Or just give him the typical 30% max?

I’d offer him the full max, as I think he’d otherwise leave, signing a 2+1 deal at the 30% max such that he could hit free agency after the cap spike at year 10, with his new team having early Bird rights and him being eligible for 35% due to service time.

Jaylen feels that the Celtics got a bargain the last time, and will demand every penny that they’re allowed to give him this time.  If he’s supermax eligible and isn’t offered it, he will leave.  And if the Celtics know they won’t offer him the supermax should he become eligible, they should trade him.

[Moranis]

One relevant thing is that a new media deal comes into play for the 2025-2026 season, and projections have the cap jumping that year to $170 million or more.  So Jaylen’s year 2 salary would be closer to 31-32% of the cap, and maybe even a bit lower.  So if you don’t think Jaylen is a 35% cap-type player, but is a 30%-player, he’d only be substantially overpaid for a season.

That's interesting.  Would you offer him the full designated player extension if he makes All-NBA?  Offer somewhere between $290 million and $249 million?  Or just give him the typical 30% max?

This is one of the problems with the individual max i.e. the player expects it and the team has to pay it.  By having a set max, the team has to offer that.

[Celtics2021]

One relevant thing is that a new media deal comes into play for the 2025-2026 season, and projections have the cap jumping that year to $170 million or more.  So Jaylen’s year 2 salary would be closer to 31-32% of the cap, and maybe even a bit lower.  So if you don’t think Jaylen is a 35% cap-type player, but is a 30%-player, he’d only be substantially overpaid for a season.

That's interesting.  Would you offer him the full designated player extension if he makes All-NBA?  Offer somewhere between $290 million and $249 million?  Or just give him the typical 30% max?

This is one of the problems with the individual max i.e. the player expects it and the team has to pay it.  By having a set max, the team has to offer that.

They don’t have to, but then the player will typically find someone who is willing to do so.  The Hornets (wisely, it turned out) didn’t give Kemba the supermax when he was eligible, and he left.  We see it in restricted free agency a lot also.  The Suns told Ayton to go find a max offer, believing he wouldn’t.  He did, and it took the Suns 5 minutes to match.

If there were no max we’d see a lot of max players, Jaylen included in my opinion, getting more than the max on the open market.  Teams offer their players max contracts to keep them because they know other teams are willing to give them that money instead.  Sometimes those contracts prove to be bad decisions, but they definitely reflect the market.

[keevsnick]

If he makes all-nba third team next year that mean's he's one of the 15ish best players in the NBA at age 26.

At that point your offering him the full supermax you can offer, and hoping he doesn't insist on a fifth year option. That contract would cover his age 28-32 seasons, in other words all prime.

Thats just kind of what is gonna happen, guys who qualify for the supermax very rarely don't get offered the supermax.

[johnnygreen]

This may be the answer to the question of why would the Celtics trade Brown for Durant. As good as Brown is, salaries of that nature should be reserved for the elite of the elite. Durant is in that category.

[Moranis]

One relevant thing is that a new media deal comes into play for the 2025-2026 season, and projections have the cap jumping that year to $170 million or more.  So Jaylen’s year 2 salary would be closer to 31-32% of the cap, and maybe even a bit lower.  So if you don’t think Jaylen is a 35% cap-type player, but is a 30%-player, he’d only be substantially overpaid for a season.

That's interesting.  Would you offer him the full designated player extension if he makes All-NBA?  Offer somewhere between $290 million and $249 million?  Or just give him the typical 30% max?

This is one of the problems with the individual max i.e. the player expects it and the team has to pay it.  By having a set max, the team has to offer that.

They don’t have to, but then the player will typically find someone who is willing to do so.  The Hornets (wisely, it turned out) didn’t give Kemba the supermax when he was eligible, and he left.  We see it in restricted free agency a lot also.  The Suns told Ayton to go find a max offer, believing he wouldn’t.  He did, and it took the Suns 5 minutes to match.

If there were no max we’d see a lot of max players, Jaylen included in my opinion, getting more than the max on the open market.  Teams offer their players max contracts to keep them because they know other teams are willing to give them that money instead.  Sometimes those contracts prove to be bad decisions, but they definitely reflect the market.

I don't think that is true though.  At least with most players.  Sure someone like Giannis or Jokic would get 70+ million a year, but I think someone like Beal gets no where near 50 million a year without the artificial individual max.  The max creates the expectation, without the max there is no expectation on contract other than what the market would yield.  And if you still have team salary caps, then the market wouldn't yield such huge contracts for the vast majority of players.  What team is going to have space for Jaylen Brown to make 50 million a year, that would actually pay him 50 million a year?

[LilRip]

If he’s a legit all-NBA guy like JT? I don’t see why we wouldn’t offer him the max. I don’t see him making it though. He’s only arguably top 20, probably top 25 and surely in the top 30.