Brown had highest bust percentage (38%) of any player in the top 18

[Sixth Man]

I would be shocked if Brown were anything but a journeyman role player.  His mold is the type that usually busts.  Barring injury Dunn will be a STAR, or could have possibly netted Butler.  This is worse than passing on Draymond, which was obvious to anyone watching actual GAMES instead of useless workouts and character assessments.

The entire league passed on Draymond - what on Earth are you saying?!  So happy to learn that you consider yourself a superior talent evaluator to every GM in the league that season. 

[jpotter33]

Jesus help me if we took a player third overall whose best case scenario is Stanley Johnson.

And where exactly are you getting "best case scenario" from, especially for a freaking guy who just completed his first year?? I never said anything about SJ being the best case scenario. I said I hope he comes out and shows that he has two-way potential like a Stanley Johnson did this past year, rather than being just an athlete that never really "got it" like Williams.

[furball]

That means there is a 72% chance he won't be a bust. 

[D Dub]

It's just Ainge being cute. This is becoming an issue with him.

I'm pretty sure this was Brad's choice more so than Ainge. 

Wasn't it was Brad who told him how well he'd fit with us when he worked out?

For those that have great respect for Brad, you should be pleased that Ainge puts this much trust in his eye.    Goes a long way, having a leader trust the troops like that. 

Now hopefully Jaylen delivers.   I'm sure he's reading all this crap tonight with eyes wide open...

He IS a nerd of sorts. Maybe he really is reading all this

Of course he is.  Everyone googles their new employer.   

[byennie]

Or 62%.

Scares the heck out of me, but it's time to start imagining the upside. My optimistic theory is that he had no business with 30% usage in college and that ruined his computer projections. Give him a summer of NBA development and play him like a rookie Tony Allen (hustle and putback dunks) and we might be surprised.

My hope is he can be a 35% outside shooter, rebound, and defend three positions at a high level. If he add some wrinkles to that, I'll take it.

[Sixth Man]

That means there is a 72% chance he won't be a bust.

Gotta love those 110%ers, eh? 

[PhoSita]

I think the floor for Brown is more like a shorter, poor man's Harrison Barnes.

[celticinorlando]

I want to like this pick. Great kid that is well spoken. Just scares me that he will be a huge bust

[hpantazo]

Jaylen Brown's nbadraft.net comparison is....Jimmy Butler.

Jimmy Butler also praised Brown heavily after Brown's Bulls workout, during which Brown went toe-toe with Butler one on one and more than held his own.

Butler was drafted 30th, and took 4 years to develop into a star. His production sucked the first 2 years, and was average in the 3rd year.

Basically, for everyone who wanted to trade the pick plus Bradley/Crowder and other assets for Butler, Brown can end up being just as good without having us lose other assets, and he's younger and cheaper.

[chiken Green]

Jaylen Brown is a Brad Stevens Pick.. No If ands or buts about it..   

[byennie]

I want to like this pick. Great kid that is well spoken. Just scares me that he will be a huge bust

I just hope he's not "Rondo" smart- i.e. full of himself. Hopefully he's just hardworking, smart guy that will be maximized like a Kawhi Leonard. That's the dream... even 80-90% of that.

[saltlover]

I love Brown.  It's a risk, I get that.  But do a redraft 5 years from now and Brown could be the second-best player taken.  That won't be true if Hield or Murray.

I like computer models and analytics.  It's part of my profession.  But makeup is a huge part of whether or not a player busts.  Computer models can't measure drive (well, they could if you gave everyone personality tests and entered them into the model, but that's not going to happen.)

Workouts and interviews can help measure that drive and commitment.  When they're out there giving Brown pointers, how quickly does he assimilate things?  When he came in for interview one, did they give him some things to work on, with his shot for example, that they saw he'd fixed in workout 2?  When they have a film session, how well does he diagnose what he's watching?

I can't answer the questions above, but you could tell how much they liked Brown when they talked about him at the press conference announcing the extensions.  Ainge had that glow.  Compare that with Jamal Murray, whom they groused about not wanting to do everything.

Maybe Brown's shot will never improve enough to be a star.  But I'm certain that they saw enough in him to believe he'll be a rotation player next season, and that gives him a good chance to not be a bust.  Of the picks at #3, I thought Dunn was the safest, but Brown was next in line for me.  He has an NBA ready body, and I think the skills aren't far behind.  I'm also sure he has the makeup.

I hope in a few years someone comes back to this thread. Brown will not be a bust.

[Irish Stew]

Where in the article does it indicate the % chance that he will be better than Noel, or even Covington?

[max215]

Jaylen Brown's nbadraft.net comparison is....Jimmy Butler.

Jimmy Butler also praised Brown heavily after Brown's Bulls workout, during which Brown went toe-toe with Butler one on one and more than held his own.

Butler was drafted 30th, and took 4 years to develop into a star. His production sucked the first 2 years, and was average in the 3rd year.

Basically, for everyone who wanted to trade the pick plus Bradley/Crowder and other assets for Butler, Brown can end up being just as good without having us lose other assets, and he's younger and cheaper.

Butler was VERY enthusiastic about Brown on the BS pod, and his seemingly genuine endorsement was meaningful to me, at least.

[KG Living Legend]

I think the floor for Brown is more like a shorter, poor man's Harrison Barnes.

 I think Barnes was a bit more talented offensively.
 Brown is so confusing. I pray his handles become legendary, if he can do that he could be great.

 I had a great feeling about him when I first saw Brown play, but man he's got a long way to go.