If not Embiid, will Danny draft Vonleh based on needs?

[Smokeeye123]

Danny ainge is not going to draft a powerforward 3 years in a row barring any trades. Its either a trade or we will pick smart, wiggins embiid or parker.

[mmmmm]

I'm definitely intrigued by Nurkic with our second pick.  The kid doesn't look like he can jump over a sheet of paper, but he's big, he's strong, he's skilled, and he appears to be able to move the feet.

Me too.  However, will he still be available at #18? 

Danny should take the BPA with both picks, IMHO.  We are a long ways off from being a true contender, so I can't imagine why he would trade the higher first-round pick.

I think that, with Willy Cauley-Stein deciding to return to school, that means there is little to no chance that Nurkic slides all the way to #18.

Prior to WCS' decision, that probably had Nurkic going around 12-13.   Now, his stock probably just went up a bit, maybe to #10-11 range.

I like Nurkic, but I worry about trading up that high to get him.  I think because centers are so scarce, there is a danger of over-valuing the ones that are IN this draft.

A more 'average' draft would have 5 - 7 centers in the top 20.   (Yes, that's over representative for the 1 of 5 positions, but bigs tend to get a premium representation.)   This draft may have only two centers (Emiid, Nurkic) go in the top 20 unless Capella sneaks into it.  Which he might, now.

Capella will maybe still be within reach at #18 -- but again, is he really a #18 pick in a 'normal' draft that might have several more centers?  Is he really the 3rd best center in a 'normal' draft?

If the lottery balls go our way, I'd be happy as a clam to bring Embiid home.   Or if Nurkic slips and we can get him with our 2nd pick without having to add a bunch to trade up too high, that would be fine, too.

Otherwise, I will be looking for Danny to try to address this need ('rim protecting big man') via trade.

And if that doesn't happen, I'm expecting we may go through one more season of 'development' and look for a center in the 2015 class.

[Tr1boy]

Let me ask questiona about this topic in a different way

1) Is a lineup of

?
KO/Sullinger - improved bodies
Green - more support
AB -healthy
Rondo - healthy

Good enough to make the playoffs with  a competent center (example Gortat, Asik)? 

2) Vonleh if he wasn't playing for a crappy Indiana team and instead was playing for Witchita State, Arizona, Uconn etc. How much better would he have been? How much better would these team have been?  He produced whats considered pretty good numbers for a freshman on a crappy team, with little to no help on either ends


IMO a healthy lineup (with Rondo passing the ball like last night) + better body Sullinger/KO at the pf spot, is a playoff bound team as long as you have a compentent center to at least help protect the rim, grab rebounds.

Vonleh would of likely been even better if he was on a non crappy team. With a legit pg and another guy who will help him rebound the ball etc.  If one of those other schools had him, probably they have a easier time going further into the tourney.

If you tie what i'am getting at , i think the celtics could be a good team with having a competent center but with upside in Vonleh.  If Vonleh was considered a long term project, i would not waste a top 6 pick on him and instead take my chances on Capela.  But Vonleh even though is young, will have a NBA Body for next season and can do at worse two things well (rebound draftexpress has him ranked #1 per 40 min) and protect the rim (due to timing, length).  I'm sounding like a broken record on these features

Some people are arguing we need to pick the BPA but neglecting the need for great rebounding and rim protection.   Eventually you have to get a guy who can do these things.  And it's not easy to find a player that can do both well plus is not a total bum on the offensive end.   

We could just temporarily get a competent center in Gortat, but there is no guarantee he will come to Boston and should be a highly sought after in the open market with the lack of Centers available. Okafor the same , even with his injuries.  So if we miss out on these guys, can't execute a trade for a competent center (that can rebound, protect the rim) , where does that leave us for next season?  2015?   Vonleh would solve a big problem conviently and quickly and imo we would not be reaching. If AB, Green, Rondo are the main pieces to work with there is also not another year even to waste on development.

[hpantazo]

Vonleh is not a center in any way, he's a combo forward. We already have KO, Sullinger, and Bass, so drafting him is the opposite of drafting for need.

If we don't land Embiid, Parker, or Wiggins, im convinced Ainge will trade the pick for a vet scorer, and trade for Asik in a smaller deal, as the Rockets will want to open up cap space.

[mmmmm]

To try to answer your revised questions:

1) With a competent defensive oriented center (and Gortat is not really in the same mold as Asik/Sanders in that regard) then that lineup, if healthy, is definitely good enough to make the playoffs.  It doesn't specify what we did with our pick, though.  So that lineup may or may not undersell what the actual lineup would be.

2) I think Danny has to take BPA with both his picks, but especially so with the first of his picks.  If that ends up being Vonleh, great.  That's fine.  But I don't think Vonleh addresses the rim protection need.  Selecting Vonleh is perfectly reasonable from a talent/value standpoint.  But it means Danny would have to definitely make a trade move to address the log jam at PF and to get a defensive center.

Vonleh may have the raw physical tools to become a very good defensive big man, but he is not going to 'be that' for some time.   He's the 2nd youngest player in this draft and is going to need a lot of development to reach his full potential.

[Tr1boy]

To try to answer your revised questions:

1) With a competent defensive oriented center (and Gortat is not really in the same mold as Asik/Sanders in that regard) then that lineup, if healthy, is definitely good enough to make the playoffs.  It doesn't specify what we did with our pick, though.  So that lineup may or may not undersell what the actual lineup would be.

2) I think Danny has to take BPA with both his picks, but especially so with the first of his picks.  If that ends up being Vonleh, great.  That's fine.  But I don't think Vonleh addresses the rim protection need.  Selecting Vonleh is perfectly reasonable from a talent/value standpoint.  But it means Danny would have to definitely make a trade move to address the log jam at PF and to get a defensive center.

Vonleh may have the raw physical tools to become a very good defensive big man, but he is not going to 'be that' for some time.   He's the 2nd youngest player in this draft and is going to need a lot of development to reach his full potential.

The last point is interesting. He is definitely young, but i'm hoping if we draft him, he produces/impacts as quickly as Drummond did for Detroit in his first year.  Vonleh should come into trainning camp next season at 250. That is a normal weight to battle most nba centers.  He doesn't have to try too much outside of rebounding the ball (which is an advance skill he posseses), protect the rim (not advance but pretty darn good) i mean at least make the opponents think twice before driving in and get us in some garbage points/tip ins, make his FT's and some hook shots, jump shots. He won't be a go to guy, he doesn't have to manage things in the post (let the vets provide directions). Just simple plays.

[Fafnir]

I don't think Vonleah has the overwhelming physical gifts to impact the game like Drummond does.

[Tr1boy]

Vonleh is not a center in any way, he's a combo forward. We already have KO, Sullinger, and Bass, so drafting him is the opposite of drafting for need.

If we don't land Embiid, Parker, or Wiggins, im convinced Ainge will trade the pick for a vet scorer, and trade for Asik in a smaller deal, as the Rockets will want to open up cap space.

i disagree. He can in no way guard sfs on a full time basis due to his bulk. He is more like a PF/C then is a PF/SF. 

He will not be a traditional center like a Drummond, Gasol but as good as Horace Grant played the center position. Horace Grant with a 3 point shot. A bulkier Chris Bosh that can play center.  It's not perfect but it can work

On top of Vonleh's ability to defend the post , rebound and protect the rim, i like his capaibility to shoot the ball. Brad Stevens is going to love this.  Gives him options to design the offense in different ways and could open up things for everyone else. Vonleh didn't shoot alot of three's (bc he just didn't get enough passes) but the 20 or so he shot, he shot the ball at 48.5 percent.  That is excellent.

[Fred Roberts]

I really can't tell if Vonleh is or can be an NBA center or not.

He seems like a PF . . . but then again, both Kendrick Perkins and Al Jefferson (both starting centers now) are about 6'10" in shoes with 7'2" - 7'4" wingspans. Vonleh certainly fits the bill there, so does that mean he can work well as a C?

Al Jeff certainly doesn't have the D. He's okay now but he's an offensive guy. Perk certainly does or did have the D at that size (granted he's heavier). So  .. . I'm all for Vonleh as the Embiid booby prize, but I can't tell if he's the answer to our rim protection requirements.

[nickagneta]

Vonleh needs to be a PF to begin his NBA career because that is where his skills and size will maximize their potential to develop. As he ages, and I mean 8-10 years down the line, and his game is established(I know I am making a huge leap here in assuming he will even be in the league that long), he could probably switch over to the center position ala, KG and Bosh and be successful, but to start his career, he needs to concentrate on the position he is best suited for right away and that is PF.

Its kind of like Sully this year. In a way, I think the C's are doing a disservice to Sully's development by playing him at center, a position he can play but PF is his best position and learning that position and playing against those opposing players, IMHO, would best develop his overall skills.

[Tr1boy]

Vonleh needs to be a PF to begin his NBA career because that is where his skills and size will maximize their potential to develop. As he ages, and I mean 8-10 years down the line, and his game is established(I know I am making a huge leap here in assuming he will even be in the league that long), he could probably switch over to the center position ala, KG and Bosh and be successful, but to start his career, he needs to concentrate on the position he is best suited for right away and that is PF.

Its kind of like Sully this year. In a way, I think the C's are doing a disservice to Sully's development by playing him at center, a position he can play but PF is his best position and learning that position and playing against those opposing players, IMHO, would best develop his overall skills.

best suited to start at the pf position or play center, if Vonleh was drafted, he would play Center for us.   He would be the best option to play that position and not sully or ko or bass (unless we signed Gortat or traded for Asik). 

It could turn out bad but i think he will be able to hold his own.  Yes he will get schooled, overpowered at times, but in the end he will still grab the rebounds (his specialty), help protect the rim unlike now and help out more than expected on the offensive end to get this team moving fwd.   

Grabbing wiggins or parker and trading Green for Asik or Mozgov is also another plan.  But i just don't get the feeling Danny wants to give up on green even for these youngters and as of right now we don't have much of a chance to grab them anyways.

[nickagneta]

I am not sure where you are getting that Vonleh is a rim protector. Saw him play 3-4 games at Indiana and he never once made me think he had a good rim protecting, defensive anchor ability in him. Not once.

[green147]

I am not sure where you are getting that Vonleh is a rim protector. Saw him play 3-4 games at Indiana and he never once made me think he had a good rim protecting, defensive anchor ability in him. Not once.

It's not that he is a rim protector now, a la Greg Oden at OSU, it's that he has the potential to be a good defensive anchor. He's athletic, long, skilled and only 19 years old.

[Sixth Man]

I am not sure where you are getting that Vonleh is a rim protector. Saw him play 3-4 games at Indiana and he never once made me think he had a good rim protecting, defensive anchor ability in him. Not once.

It's not that he is a rim protector now, a la Greg Oden at OSU, it's that he has the potential to be a good defensive anchor. He's athletic, long, skilled and only 19 years old.

Agreed.  From what I've seen, he's not a rim protector nor a good post defender, but those are issues that can be addressed by coaching.  He's very young and very raw, but he has the kind of high ceiling that DA seems to value in his 1st round picks. He clearly needs to improve his footwork, but if he does, that will force him to slow down on defense and play under control, which will benefit him greatly defending in the paint.

[Tr1boy]

I am not sure where you are getting that Vonleh is a rim protector. Saw him play 3-4 games at Indiana and he never once made me think he had a good rim protecting, defensive anchor ability in him. Not once.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=nj_FiHkeP7o

(from the clip you can see how quickly he can go up to grab rebounds, block shots .  Love the play where he blocks the shot, grabs the rebound and makes the outlet pass. I like how physical he is underneath the basket on both ends to deny or establish position. Looks like a load to deal with)

The potential is there.  Was he like Embiid and make it impossible at times to score a layup?  No, but still he had several highlight reel blocks throughout the year.  With his arm up, some guys had tough times getting the ball over his length. 

Vonleh is not a guy looking to swat the ball into the stands like Drummond or Dhoward. His focus is on playing sound defense first and if he can block the shot, he will.   He avg 1.4 blocks per game, which is nothing to get excited about (though he had several games where he blocked 4 shots).  Remember he was only a freshman  and had very little help all around