Author Topic: Bill Simmons proves, yet again, that he doesn't bleed green  (Read 15188 times)

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Bill Simmons proves, yet again, that he doesn't bleed green
« on: March 31, 2009, 02:13:51 PM »

Offline Roy Hobbs

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There should be a section on eBay that allows the auctioning of enticing future bets. For instance, a few weeks before the NBA season, I placed $300 on 15-to-1 odds that Cleveland would win the 2009 NBA title. Those odds have dropped to 2-to-1. Not that I would (after all, Cleveland is going to win the 2009 NBA title), but shouldn't I have the option to sell that $300 ticket on eBay? What if someone bid $1,200 on it (which would be a smart move because, again, Cleveland is going to win the NBA title) and I was guaranteed a $900 return on my investment? Should I take the money? This would be a fun Web site, you have to admit. And if eBay can't do it, then why couldn't the casinos themselves build a Web site that allows people to sell future tickets and get a second cut on the action? It all makes too much sense.

I'm assuming this is another one of Bill's "reverse jinxes"?  I know this is fairly minor, and people get way too riled up about Simmons, but I think it's disingenuous for somebody to act like Boston's Superfan #1, and then consistently talk about other teams being superior to the Celts (L.A. last year, Cleveland this year.)

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Re: Bill Simmons proves, yet again, that he doesn't bleed green
« Reply #1 on: March 31, 2009, 02:15:25 PM »

Offline illantari

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He was wrong last year.  Hopefully that's all that matters.

Re: Bill Simmons proves, yet again, that he doesn't bleed green
« Reply #2 on: March 31, 2009, 02:18:10 PM »

Offline BballTim

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Quote
There should be a section on eBay that allows the auctioning of enticing future bets. For instance, a few weeks before the NBA season, I placed $300 on 15-to-1 odds that Cleveland would win the 2009 NBA title. Those odds have dropped to 2-to-1. Not that I would (after all, Cleveland is going to win the 2009 NBA title), but shouldn't I have the option to sell that $300 ticket on eBay? What if someone bid $1,200 on it (which would be a smart move because, again, Cleveland is going to win the NBA title) and I was guaranteed a $900 return on my investment? Should I take the money? This would be a fun Web site, you have to admit. And if eBay can't do it, then why couldn't the casinos themselves build a Web site that allows people to sell future tickets and get a second cut on the action? It all makes too much sense.

I'm assuming this is another one of Bill's "reverse jinxes"?  I know this is fairly minor, and people get way too riled up about Simmons, but I think it's disingenuous for somebody to act like Boston's Superfan #1, and then consistently talk about other teams being superior to the Celts (L.A. last year, Cleveland this year.)

  Aside from him picking Cleveland, he has an interesting point about selling those bets...

Re: Bill Simmons proves, yet again, that he doesn't bleed green
« Reply #3 on: March 31, 2009, 02:20:16 PM »

Offline Truck Lewis

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he has been saying all year that the Cavs are going to win it all... i'm thinking part of it has to be the old reverse jinx... and part is that he thinks they have the best odds considering the c's health issues
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Re: Bill Simmons proves, yet again, that he doesn't bleed green
« Reply #4 on: March 31, 2009, 02:22:09 PM »

Offline the_Bird

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Simmons is an idiot, I was glad to read that he thinks Cleveland's a lock.












Uh, not that I read Bill Simmons anymore...   

Re: Bill Simmons proves, yet again, that he doesn't bleed green
« Reply #5 on: March 31, 2009, 02:25:21 PM »

Offline Donoghus

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I think you have to separate the gambling aspect from the sports fan aspect here.

15-1 odds on a Cleveland team are pretty enticing odds to jump at.  The fact that its dropped to 2-1 makes it even more favorable at the time. 

I'm guessing the Celtics odds were much lower than 15-1.  As a gambler, taking 15-1 gets you a larger payoff.

It's tough when you have a rooting interest in one team while your gambling interest lies with another but it happens. 


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Re: Bill Simmons proves, yet again, that he doesn't bleed green
« Reply #6 on: March 31, 2009, 02:27:09 PM »

Offline jdpapa3

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It's without a doubt his reverse jinx thing. He compared the Pats to the 80's Celts and I don't think he has pumped the hometown team since then. He is still feeling the Celtics.

I also agree with that gambling concept. I like doing similar stuff on the stock market with options. I feel it wouldn't be that hard to implement. They should ultimately allow gambling to be legal in the first place, but that's another issue.

Re: Bill Simmons proves, yet again, that he doesn't bleed green
« Reply #7 on: March 31, 2009, 02:30:32 PM »

Offline yall hate

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I have no problem with it.  when making bets, I go with what I think is most likely to happen, not just based on my team. 

I would have liked to have seen BC do well in the NCAA tournament, but I had them losing in the first round in every pool I did.

I'd loved to have jumped at the cavs at 15-1 odds.  I wonder what the current odds for the C's are - maybe worth a bet.

Re: Bill Simmons proves, yet again, that he doesn't bleed green
« Reply #8 on: March 31, 2009, 02:34:57 PM »

Offline the_Bird

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I have a hard time believing that Cleveland was EVER a 15-1 shot to win the title this year.  I mean, if every team in the league was a .500 club, they would all be 30-1.  Hard to see, especially after how tough they were LAST year, how they ever would have been much worse than a 5-1 or 6-1 shot.  

I mean, I kinda figured, at the start of the season...

Boston: 25% shot at winning (4-1)
Cleveland: ~20% (5-1)
Lakers: ~15% (about 6-1)
Spurs: ~15% (about 6-1)
Everyone else: 25%

I mean, tell me if I'm misinterpreting the gambling lines, but doesn't 15-1 odds imply that Cleveland's only supposed to have a 7% chance of winning the title?  When were the odds EVER that low?

Re: Bill Simmons proves, yet again, that he doesn't bleed green
« Reply #9 on: March 31, 2009, 02:39:52 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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Meh, there's a difference between being a fan and being rational.  As a fan, you rabidly root for your team to do as well as they possibly can, but as a rational person sometimes you understand that's it's unlikely. 

I desperately want the Celtics to win another ring this year, but if you put a gun to my head/made me wager a substantial amount on Cavs or Celts, well...I think I'd have to pick the other guys.

I have a hard time believing that Cleveland was EVER a 15-1 shot to win the title this year.  
<snip>
I mean, tell me if I'm misinterpreting the gambling lines, but doesn't 15-1 odds imply that Cleveland's only supposed to have a 7% chance of winning the title?  When were the odds EVER that low?

Gambling odds aren't supposed to be measures of objective likelihood, they're designed to generate bets in a way that favors the bookie's bottom line.  This is a key difference - objectively, yeah, the Cavs had to be better than 15-1, but subjectively, there are a lot of folks that weren't big on them, not to mention a ton of Laker fans (probably some Celtic fans too) skewing the odds.

Re: Bill Simmons proves, yet again, that he doesn't bleed green
« Reply #10 on: March 31, 2009, 02:47:08 PM »

Offline the_Bird

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Meh, there's a difference between being a fan and being rational.  As a fan, you rabidly root for your team to do as well as they possibly can, but as a rational person sometimes you understand that's it's unlikely. 

I desperately want the Celtics to win another ring this year, but if you put a gun to my head/made me wager a substantial amount on Cavs or Celts, well...I think I'd have to pick the other guys.

I have a hard time believing that Cleveland was EVER a 15-1 shot to win the title this year.  
<snip>
I mean, tell me if I'm misinterpreting the gambling lines, but doesn't 15-1 odds imply that Cleveland's only supposed to have a 7% chance of winning the title?  When were the odds EVER that low?

Gambling odds aren't supposed to be measures of objective likelihood, they're designed to generate bets in a way that favors the bookie's bottom line.  This is a key difference - objectively, yeah, the Cavs had to be better than 15-1, but subjectively, there are a lot of folks that weren't big on them, not to mention a ton of Laker fans (probably some Celtic fans too) skewing the odds.

It still doesn't make sense to me that they're going to be THAT far out of whack.  Markets are too efficient; if you're telling me that Cleveland is THAT much of an underdog, I'm going to be betting the farm on that until the odds are more realistic (the collective "I" representing the gambling community)

I know that there's a bias even with gamblers towards Boston, LA, the other flashy teams...  but it's not like LeBron isn't considered  by many/most to be the best player in the game, and it wasn't like no one watched the seven-game series against us.

I'm calling BS on Simmons' recollection of 15-1 odds.

Re: Bill Simmons proves, yet again, that he doesn't bleed green
« Reply #11 on: March 31, 2009, 02:50:25 PM »

Offline dark_lord

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i will just relish at the thought of him blowing his money on the cavs....c'mon celts, stick it to the man, lol ;D

Re: Bill Simmons proves, yet again, that he doesn't bleed green
« Reply #12 on: March 31, 2009, 02:58:25 PM »

Offline crownsy

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don't worry, if clevland doesn't win or we beat them, he'll just put out his lame ass "reverse jinx" line like he did last year when he thought we wouldn't make then win the finals.

Simmons isn't a fan anymore. I'm sure he enjoyed it when they won, and i liked his article about it, but he's "boston sports guy" no longer. now he just writes about the flavor of the month, like all the WWL contributers.
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Re: Bill Simmons proves, yet again, that he doesn't bleed green
« Reply #13 on: March 31, 2009, 03:00:37 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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It still doesn't make sense to me that they're going to be THAT far out of whack.  Markets are too efficient; if you're telling me that Cleveland is THAT much of an underdog, I'm going to be betting the farm on that until the odds are more realistic (the collective "I" representing the gambling community)

I know that there's a bias even with gamblers towards Boston, LA, the other flashy teams...  but it's not like LeBron isn't considered  by many/most to be the best player in the game, and it wasn't like no one watched the seven-game series against us.

I'm calling BS on Simmons' recollection of 15-1 odds.

I think the last 6 months have shown that markets aren't quite as efficient as they advertise.   ;) And anyway, the efficiency would be shown in the shift from 15-1 to 2-1 odds over the course of the season.  Google stock was pretty cheap for the first few minutes of its IPO, if I recall.

Simmons might be  misremembering it or flatout making it up, but I doubt it - first, if he placed the bet, he's got the receipt, and second, if the odds never existed at any major sports book some blogger will prove it by the end of the day, and Simmons knows it.  Instant factchecking makes it very hard to BS something easily verifiable like that.

Instead, it's possible those odds were pre-Mo Williams; they seem more reasonable then.

Re: Bill Simmons proves, yet again, that he doesn't bleed green
« Reply #14 on: March 31, 2009, 03:01:12 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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he's a fan... he tried the reverse jinx last year too.

But I'm kinda sharing his sentiment until I hear the truth about KG's injury.