Is Ainge too concerned with a high floor when drafting

[KG Living Legend]

 I feel like he may be to cautious when drafting. Not many swing for the fences picks I can remember. Avery Bradley fits that mold and a little bit of Romeo Langford although I don't think he was the highest upside pick available.

 Smart#6 overall. Who doesn't love Smart. His shooting is finally coming around, although he's still not a complete offensive weapon.

 It was a sure thing he was going to be able to help right away with NBA Defense. And that was true.  9ppg 4apg 3rpg is underwhelming if we are being honest for the #6 overall.

 For me Julius Randle was the easy pick.
 Highest ceiling but you were gonna have to tolerate bad defense early on.

 Now it's hard to argue that Smart is a better player. The other high upside pick lots of people were talking about that I would not sign off on was Zach Lavine.

  That's a tough call but look Lavine is reaching that high upside now. Probably has higher trade value than Smart.

 
 Let's go to the #16 pick in 2016. Not gonna pretend I knew about Pascal Siakam that year.

 High upside guys that year for me were

 #1 Caris Levert. Absolutely loved him but he was a huge injury risk.
 #2 Skal Labissiere former too prospect. He sucked.
#3 Dejounte Murray

 Who did we take? Yabu. Enough said.

  Best example ever is Kelly. Who Danny actually said is not a starter but a good rotation guy. And that drives me nuts. Passing on Gianni's who's upside was gigantic but could have busted. Scotty pippen was mentioned as a comparison.

 And this year Romeo Langford who is a high upside pick. But if you take a long look at Sekou or Alexander Williams.

 To me Sekou is more risky but his Ceiling is out of control high. He's a much better shooter than Romeo right now. He's 18 and his body and athleticism are off the charts.

 Danny likes solid over sky high upside IMHO.

 

[pablohoney]

Pascal Siakam was a 4 year senior with awesome production.  Those guys are never considered “high upside”.  Even Toronto took Jakob Poetl ahead of him. Danny drafted Yabu beacause he didn’t want a guaranteed contract....he made a legit run at Kevin Durant and never looked back. 

 Danny liked Giannis and would have drafted him I believe if he would have agreed to a stash.  It was a mistake in hindsight but it is true that GA was a project and wasn’t ready for NBA as a rookie.  He was also 6-8 at that time.  How many guys grow 4 inches at that age?  If he stayed 6-8 he would Bruno Caboclo.

Langford is not a high floor safe pick.  He was a top 5 prospect out of HS who played with a thumb injury.  If ever Danny rolled the dice for a high reward guy it was with this pick.  Sekou is also a high reward pick who fills our needs better.  If anything, this proves Danny is betting on talent.  He and Brad must think Romeo has more potential.

Smart was a bad pick at 6 (given expectations of draft and his production to date ) although he is probably 6th best in draft because guys like Exum, Wiggins, Randle, and Parker have underperformed.  That said, Marcus looks to be a guy like Kyle Lowry and Chauncey Billups who will make a leap after 5 years in league.

[bellerephon]

The draft is a crap shoot. Every team has it's hits and misses, no one has figured out how to predict which guys will be great and which will disappoint. Many thought Danny made a mistake by taking Tatum when he could have had Faulk, no one is criticizing him for that now. I'm not saying Danny is some sort of draft guru, but he's no worse than anyone else and better than quite a few. Once you get past the first two or three picks it really is guess work, and sometimes even with those top picks you just don't know. Danny does a decent job in the draft when you consider where he has picked.

[KG Living Legend]

Pascal Siakam was a 4 year senior with awesome production.  Those guys are never considered “high upside”.  Even Toronto took Jakob Poetl ahead of him. Danny drafted Yabu beacause he didn’t want a guaranteed contract....he made a legit run at Kevin Durant and never looked back. 

 Danny liked Giannis and would have drafted him I believe if he would have agreed to a stash.  It was a mistake in hindsight but it is true that GA was a project and wasn’t ready for NBA as a rookie.  He was also 6-8 at that time.  How many guys grow 4 inches at that age?  If he stayed 6-8 he would Bruno Caboclo.

Langford is not a high floor safe pick.  He was a top 5 prospect out of HS who played with a thumb injury.  If ever Danny rolled the dice for a high reward guy it was with this pick.  Sekou is also a high reward pick who fills our needs better.  If anything, this proves Danny is betting on talent.  He and Brad must think Romeo has more potential.

Smart was a bad pick at 6 (given expectations of draft and his production to date ) although he is probably 6th best in draft because guys like Exum, Wiggins, Randle, and Parker have underperformed.  That said, Marcus looks to be a guy like Kyle Lowry and Chauncey Billups who will make a leap after 5 years in league.

 
 I said Romeo was A fairly high upside pick.

 And the fact the Celtics took Romeo doesn't prove anything. Besides Danny loves guards and Brad wanted Romeo, Indiana Legend.



 

[footey]

Some years Danny plays it safe, some years he takes risks.

Risks include: Gerald Green, James Young, Terry Rozier, Jaylen Brown, Al Jefferson, Tony Allen. Some worked some did not.

[PhoSita]

I would much, much rather have Smart than Randle or Lavine.

[RockinRyA]

Yeah, No. Just No. Just recently he drafted guys like Young, Williams, Brown, Langford. Stop pushing this narrative.

Also I'd take Smart over Randle 10x.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Fab Melo says hi, RIP.

[Celtics4ever]

Drafting is inherently a gamble to begin with.    You are going to win some and lose some.   He does seem to swing for the fences but Grant Williams kind of contradicts this argument.

Fab Melo says hi, RIP.

He was in all honesty, not a very good college player.

I JUST WISH HE WOULD START DRAFTING SOME DECENT SIZE AND LESS WINGS

[KG Living Legend]

Drafting is inherently a gamble to begin with.    You are going to win some and lose some.   He does seem to swing for the fences but Grant Williams kind of contradicts this argument.

Fab Melo says hi, RIP.

He was in all honesty, not a very good college player.

I JUST WISH HE WOULD START DRAFTING SOME DECENT SIZE AND LESS WINGS

 I'm with you 100% here.

Romeo 6'5"
Grant 6'5" big man
5'10" Waters
5'11" Edwards

 For a team with no real big man besides Kanter and he can't defend.

[BitterJim]

Drafting is inherently a gamble to begin with.    You are going to win some and lose some.   He does seem to swing for the fences but Grant Williams kind of contradicts this argument.

Fab Melo says hi, RIP.

He was in all honesty, not a very good college player.

I JUST WISH HE WOULD START DRAFTING SOME DECENT SIZE AND LESS WINGS

Given how late our picks have been the past few years, what exactly about the players available (with prototypical size) makes you really want them? At that point you can either get a 7 footer with Aron Baynes-like upside, or a complete project that is 5 years away from being 5 years away (if they even make it in the league, which only a small percentage do)

After the lottery, you basically need to pick 2 of the following: good size, good skills, athletic. After 25-35 picks (depending on the draft), pick one. The mythical big man that fits all 3 and is available where we're drafting doesn't exist. Danny's had a lot of success drafting athletic+skilled guys (without great size) because they tend to be undervalued

[BitterJim]

 I feel like he may be to cautious when drafting. Not many swing for the fences picks I can remember. Avery Bradley fits that mold and a little bit of Romeo Langford although I don't think he was the highest upside pick available.

 Smart#6 overall. Who doesn't love Smart. His shooting is finally coming around, although he's still not a complete offensive weapon.

 It was a sure thing he was going to be able to help right away with NBA Defense. And that was true.  9ppg 4apg 3rpg is underwhelming if we are being honest for the #6 overall.

 For me Julius Randle was the easy pick.
 Highest ceiling but you were gonna have to tolerate bad defense early on.

 Now it's hard to argue that Smart is a better player. The other high upside pick lots of people were talking about that I would not sign off on was Zach Lavine.

  That's a tough call but look Lavine is reaching that high upside now. Probably has higher trade value than Smart.

 
Let's go to the #16 pick in 2016. Not gonna pretend I knew about Pascal Siakam that year.

 High upside guys that year for me were

 #1 Caris Levert. Absolutely loved him but he was a huge injury risk.
 #2 Skal Labissiere former too prospect. He sucked.
#3 Dejounte Murray

 Who did we take? Yabu. Enough said.

  Best example ever is Kelly. Who Danny actually said is not a starter but a good rotation guy. And that drives me nuts. Passing on Gianni's who's upside was gigantic but could have busted. Scotty pippen was mentioned as a comparison.

 And this year Romeo Langford who is a high upside pick. But if you take a long look at Sekou or Alexander Williams.

 To me Sekou is more risky but his Ceiling is out of control high. He's a much better shooter than Romeo right now. He's 18 and his body and athleticism are off the charts.

 Danny likes solid over sky high upside IMHO.

I'm not sure that that is "enough said". Are you saying that Yabu was a high floor pick, as opposed to high ceiling?

Yabu was a high-upside pick that could be stashed. Of the guys you listed (edit: from that draft), he clearly had one of the lowest floors

[droopdog7]

This whole thread feels like a set up to talk about Giannis.

[Moranis]

Ainge has hit on very few draft picks in recent years.  And by hit I mean someone that was drafted in a spot that would have gone appreciably higher in a redraft.  Tatum is the only player drafted that I'd call a hit since Bradley in 2010 (obviously the last couple of drafts are up in the air still).  That doesn't mean everyone else are busts i.e. players that were drafted too high, but his drafting record isn't what it once was when he had a much higher percentage of hits (Rondo and Jefferson being the biggest but even Perkins, Allen, Gomes, etc. were big time hits). 

Ainge has seemingly fallen in love with the same type of player and he just hasn't been very good at drafting that type of player recently.

[hwangjini_1]

Ainge has hit on very few draft picks in recent years.  And by hit I mean someone that was drafted in a spot that would have gone appreciably higher in a redraft.  Tatum is the only player drafted that I'd call a hit since Bradley in 2010 (obviously the last couple of drafts are up in the air still).  That doesn't mean everyone else are busts i.e. players that were drafted too high, but his drafting record isn't what it once was when he had a much higher percentage of hits (Rondo and Jefferson being the biggest but even Perkins, Allen, Gomes, etc. were big time hits). 

Ainge has seemingly fallen in love with the same type of player and he just hasn't been very good at drafting that type of player recently.

i am not quite sure how grant williams, romeo langford, edwards, TL, tatum, brown, yabusele, zizic, and semi are the same type of player.

for the post above, typically drafting in the mid to lower range does tend to produce a lot of misses for virtually every single GM in the nba. while mentioned is the fact that indeed in the later parts of the draft some gems emerge, the number of GMs who can find such gems on a consistent basis is very small.

but now let's look at rozier, a very good value at #16 in the draft. when looking at other players taken before rozier, not all players have done better than him. indeed, based upon performance, rozier would probably go sooner than#16 in a redo.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2015.html

it is too early to judge the most recent draft, but so far GW, edwards, and waters might be players who would go earlier in a redraft. but then, ainge has hit on decent second round picks for a while.

lanford? not enough to judge yet.