Is Ainge too concerned with a high floor when drafting

[NKY fan]

IMHO if your draftee doesnt even get to play in the nba, they should be ranked lower than guys who played a few minutes and didnt do a thing.

Well you can argue either way.. is it a waste of a pick most likely yes or is it better that we didn’t waste the spot on a player that doesn’t contribute anything and makes a paycheck.. if I added those two players the spurs chart will look like morey chart so it won’t change the story that the numbers are telling.

[Tr1boy]

Danny's draft highlights in his entire GM career

Homeruns:

1. Rajon Rondo - 4x All-Star, All-NBA 3rd Team, 4x All-Defensive Team, Assist Leader, Steals leader
2. Tony Allen - 6x All-Defensive Team
3. Avery Bradley - 2x All-Defensive Team
4. Al Jefferson - All-NBA 3rd Team
5. Marcus Smart - 1st All-Defensive Team and counting

Aside from Al, Danny have a great record of drafting stud defensive guards. I expect good things from Edwards and Waters as they have shown flashes. Even guys like E'Twaun Moore and Gerald Green found a niche on the league. Delonte West was also solid rotational player.

Danny's weakness is drafting bigs. It's a hit or miss for him. He may have drafted Big Al, but he also drafted guys like Fab Melo and JaJuan Johnson. Sully, Powe and Gomes may have short NBA careers, but they were solid in the years they were in. So in short, he's average on this category. He have yet to hit big with big drafts. Grant, Time Lord and Tacko might be his ticket to redemption on this category if they develop into very good players.

He may not be Bufford or Jerry West, but he's no Billy King or Pitino either.  Besides, Danny have only missed the playoffs in 3 out of 16 seasons as a GM.

Which is funny

Because Thybulle was right there and he skipped on him multiple times

[bdm860]

Here is how ainge stacks vs Pop and Morey.
More than half of the time the players that DA drafted ended up being ranked in the bottom 3rd by WS per 48. If Zizc has a couple stingers for Cleveland he may move to the lower 3rd as well.

 2 players that the spurs selected didn’t come to the nba so they are not ranked.
In general morey and pop tend to draft players that deliver WS per 48 in the top 3rd half of the time.

Assuming it's simple, could you throw up the data, like you did yesterday, for Morey and Pop/Bufford?  Like this:



If you don't already have the data like that, then please don't waste your time, I'm just going use it to try to poke holes in your work 

But you're using WS/48 for your rankings?  Based on the 14 picks you listed for Ainge yesterday, that puts Bradley and Ojeleye in the lowest tier,  Zizic and Yabu in the middle tier, and Time Lord at the top of the top tier with Kawhi and Capella?  Am I interpreting your data and methodology correctly?

[RockinRyA]

IMHO if your draftee doesnt even get to play in the nba, they should be ranked lower than guys who played a few minutes and didnt do a thing.

Well you can argue either way.. is it a waste of a pick most likely yes or is it better that we didn’t waste the spot on a player that doesn’t contribute anything and makes a paycheck.. if I added those two players the spurs chart will look like morey chart so it won’t change the story that the numbers are telling.

Not really, we are talking about the value/performance of the players drafted, not their impact on roster and salary. You can spin it whatever you want, but the fact is, a player had more use even if you just use them for practice than as a stash which didnt come over.

That's not to say stashing is bad, on the contrary it is a very good practice. But if we apply your logic, then we may have to put weight on busts from higher draft picks. After all, a wasted 3rd pick has a bigger influence on the salary than a wasted 30th pick. Better be consistent with the basis.

[NKY fan]

Here is how ainge stacks vs Pop and Morey.
More than half of the time the players that DA drafted ended up being ranked in the bottom 3rd by WS per 48. If Zizc has a couple stingers for Cleveland he may move to the lower 3rd as well.

 2 players that the spurs selected didn’t come to the nba so they are not ranked.
In general morey and pop tend to draft players that deliver WS per 48 in the top 3rd half of the time.

Assuming it's simple, could you throw up the data, like you did yesterday, for Morey and Pop/Bufford?  Like this:



If you don't already have the data like that, then please don't waste your time, I'm just going use it to try to poke holes in your work 

But you're using WS/48 for your rankings?  Based on the 14 picks you listed for Ainge yesterday, that puts Bradley and Ojeleye in the lowest tier,  Zizic and Yabu in the middle tier, and Time Lord at the top of the top tier with Kawhi and Capella?  Am I interpreting your data and methodology correctly?

Each column with percentiles is a ranking. So just go over the column and see where a player is ranked. Bradley is ~72% so he will be in upper 3rd with kawhi ... time lord at 31%ile will be bottom 3rd.. he’s not done yet ... he can climb the rankings ... there is your first hole lol... what’s set in stone pretty much is the ranking of the 7 worst Celtics picks since they are out of the league.

[bdm860]

Here is how ainge stacks vs Pop and Morey.
More than half of the time the players that DA drafted ended up being ranked in the bottom 3rd by WS per 48. If Zizc has a couple stingers for Cleveland he may move to the lower 3rd as well.

 2 players that the spurs selected didn’t come to the nba so they are not ranked.
In general morey and pop tend to draft players that deliver WS per 48 in the top 3rd half of the time.

Assuming it's simple, could you throw up the data, like you did yesterday, for Morey and Pop/Bufford?  Like this:



If you don't already have the data like that, then please don't waste your time, I'm just going use it to try to poke holes in your work 

But you're using WS/48 for your rankings?  Based on the 14 picks you listed for Ainge yesterday, that puts Bradley and Ojeleye in the lowest tier,  Zizic and Yabu in the middle tier, and Time Lord at the top of the top tier with Kawhi and Capella?  Am I interpreting your data and methodology correctly?

Each column with percentiles is a ranking. So just go over the column and see where a player is ranked. Bradley is ~72% so he will be in upper 3rd with kawhi ... time lord at 31%ile will be bottom 3rd.. he’s not done yet ... he can climb the rankings ... there is your first hole lol... what’s set in stone pretty much is the ranking of the 7 worst Celtics picks since they are out of the league.

Help me with the math.  I see the column AA, but don't understand the calc.  I assumed 348 players in a list (or 348-12), and Bradley's WS/48 is ranked at the 71.9% percentile and Yabu is 27.7%.

But in column T (which I assumed column AA was based off of), Bradley's WS/48 is .047, while Yabu's is .105.  So based on this, I would think Yabu would come in at a much higher rank than Bradley?

Is your WS/48 percentile calc in AA perhaps mistakenly based off of hidden column S which I assume is just WS (where Bradley has 14.7 and Yabu has only 1.1)?

[NKY fan]

Here is how ainge stacks vs Pop and Morey.
More than half of the time the players that DA drafted ended up being ranked in the bottom 3rd by WS per 48. If Zizc has a couple stingers for Cleveland he may move to the lower 3rd as well.

 2 players that the spurs selected didn’t come to the nba so they are not ranked.
In general morey and pop tend to draft players that deliver WS per 48 in the top 3rd half of the time.

Assuming it's simple, could you throw up the data, like you did yesterday, for Morey and Pop/Bufford?  Like this:



If you don't already have the data like that, then please don't waste your time, I'm just going use it to try to poke holes in your work 

But you're using WS/48 for your rankings?  Based on the 14 picks you listed for Ainge yesterday, that puts Bradley and Ojeleye in the lowest tier,  Zizic and Yabu in the middle tier, and Time Lord at the top of the top tier with Kawhi and Capella?  Am I interpreting your data and methodology correctly?

Each column with percentiles is a ranking. So just go over the column and see where a player is ranked. Bradley is ~72% so he will be in upper 3rd with kawhi ... time lord at 31%ile will be bottom 3rd.. he’s not done yet ... he can climb the rankings ... there is your first hole lol... what’s set in stone pretty much is the ranking of the 7 worst Celtics picks since they are out of the league.

Sorry labels are off. It is total WS what you’re looking. I will fix that.BPM is actually WS 48 and vorp is actually BPM..it’s a complicated excel file with no one besides me to proof read it. Oops... good catch though ... I did my ranking on MPG

[NKY fan]

Here is the list with corrected labels for the last three columns.
I also added spurs and rockets.. the previous graph i posted is also for total WS instead of WS per 48.. I apologize for that

[Somebody]

I'd suggest using stats that factor in box production and impact metrics like BPM for these players if you have to use a one number stat to evaluate them, that way you can avoid a bit of the team/fit noise from stats like WS and RPM.

[hwangjini_1]

Danny's draft highlights in his entire GM career

Homeruns:

1. Rajon Rondo - 4x All-Star, All-NBA 3rd Team, 4x All-Defensive Team, Assist Leader, Steals leader
2. Tony Allen - 6x All-Defensive Team
3. Avery Bradley - 2x All-Defensive Team
4. Al Jefferson - All-NBA 3rd Team
5. Marcus Smart - 1st All-Defensive Team and counting

Aside from Al, Danny have a great record of drafting stud defensive guards. I expect good things from Edwards and Waters as they have shown flashes. Even guys like E'Twaun Moore and Gerald Green found a niche on the league. Delonte West was also solid rotational player.

Danny's weakness is drafting bigs. It's a hit or miss for him. He may have drafted Big Al, but he also drafted guys like Fab Melo and JaJuan Johnson. Sully, Powe and Gomes may have short NBA careers, but they were solid in the years they were in. So in short, he's average on this category. He have yet to hit big with big drafts. Grant, Time Lord and Tacko might be his ticket to redemption on this category if they develop into very good players.

He may not be Bufford or Jerry West, but he's no Billy King or Pitino either.  Besides, Danny have only missed the playoffs in 3 out of 16 seasons as a GM.

you omitted Perk as a solid big man draft pick.  the deal with Memphis was set up beforehand where they were drafting for the C's.  also, love him or hate him, Olynyk was a solid pick.  unspectacular and the bane of all the Giannis-hindsight-is-20/20 armchair GMS but still a solid pick

Melo was widely considered a bust but JJJ was not.  JJJ had solid college credentials and the athleticism to succeed but apparently not the drive.  also, he was definitely considered BPA at the time of the pick.  I still have no issue with him taking JJJ.

Oh, yeah. How could I forget our friend Perk and Big Baby . Both were solid picks but they are more on the single hits rather than a home run.

You got a starting center on a championship team from the 27th pick. That is a home run.

and without considering the exact location of the picks in the draft it becomes an exercise in silliness to decide whether a player is a good choice. perk at #1 is disappointing. perk at #27 is great.

[mmmmm]

I think his point is more that Ainge quite simply hasn't been winning since Rondo was selected when looking at picks in that range.  It would be one thing if he had those 7 awful picks but also had 7 of the better picks or even just 1 of the super-elite All NBA type players.  But Ainge doesn't have those.  He is missing or getting a single.  His best selection was Avery Bradley, who is a fine player and very good value for his draft spot, but he isn't moving the needle much.

I think you have a different definition of "not winning".

Rondo was one of the greatest value picks of all time so isn't really a fair threshold to hold every pick since against.

But when talking about picks 'in that range', he's picked Avery, Sully, Fab, and Zizic all within 2 slots of Rondo's pick.   Fab is a bust and the jury is still out on Zizic but Rondo, Avery and Sully were all clearly 'wins' in that range.  I'd call that hitting at least 3 of 5, including a home run, a double and a single.  And maybe count Zizic as a walk.

What percentage of players at that range ever become 'home runs'?   What is your actual threshold by which you are judging?

If we use the 82games.com study of drafts from 1989-2008, only about 5% of players picked in the 19-23 range are going to be a 'star' and almost 60% are going to be no better than deep bench players.

The percentages drop off to abysmal quickly after that as you go deeper in the draft.  By the time you start the 2nd round, you should expect 70-80% of all players picked to be no better than deep bench players.   By the time you get to the middle of the 2nd round, forget it.

I get the feeling from reading comments that folks just don't really just how stacked the odds are against most of these players being even average NBA players, let alone 'home runs'.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

If you take the field against any GM, the field wins.

Ainge hasn't drafted well, but comparing his pick to the field isn't really a good way to assess his picks.

[NKY fan]

I think his point is more that Ainge quite simply hasn't been winning since Rondo was selected when looking at picks in that range.  It would be one thing if he had those 7 awful picks but also had 7 of the better picks or even just 1 of the super-elite All NBA type players.  But Ainge doesn't have those.  He is missing or getting a single.  His best selection was Avery Bradley, who is a fine player and very good value for his draft spot, but he isn't moving the needle much.

I think you have a different definition of "not winning".

Rondo was one of the greatest value picks of all time so isn't really a fair threshold to hold every pick since against.

But when talking about picks 'in that range', he's picked Avery, Sully, Fab, and Zizic all within 2 slots of Rondo's pick.   Fab is a bust and the jury is still out on Zizic but Rondo, Avery and Sully were all clearly 'wins' in that range.  I'd call that hitting at least 3 of 5, including a home run, a double and a single.  And maybe count Zizic as a walk.

What percentage of players at that range ever become 'home runs'?   What is your actual threshold by which you are judging?

If we use the 82games.com study of drafts from 1989-2008, only about 5% of players picked in the 19-23 range are going to be a 'star' and almost 60% are going to be no better than deep bench players.

The percentages drop off to abysmal quickly after that as you go deeper in the draft.  By the time you start the 2nd round, you should expect 70-80% of all players picked to be no better than deep bench players.   By the time you get to the middle of the 2nd round, forget it.

I get the feeling from reading comments that folks just don't really just how stacked the odds are against most of these players being even average NBA players, let alone 'home runs'.

well if you look at the screenshots i posted Danny compares very unfavorably against Pop/Bufford and Morey .. 2 guys that kind of beat the field consistently.
I think DA / PB and DM are the only three GMs held their positions since the start of the data experience so it is fair to be compared and how have they done....
Also Danny's average draft position has been higher than the other two so where he is picking is not an excuse...

[Fafnir]

mmmmm has it right.

Getting Kendrick Perkins at his draft positions is a home run. If you get a starter out of the 27th pick of the draft that's a home run. Every rotation player out of the late first and second is a big win for a front office.

Getting a Jokic/Butler is a different sort of franchise changer, but happens so rarely it should not be the rubric or goal for the front office.

[BitterJim]

I think his point is more that Ainge quite simply hasn't been winning since Rondo was selected when looking at picks in that range.  It would be one thing if he had those 7 awful picks but also had 7 of the better picks or even just 1 of the super-elite All NBA type players.  But Ainge doesn't have those.  He is missing or getting a single.  His best selection was Avery Bradley, who is a fine player and very good value for his draft spot, but he isn't moving the needle much.

I think you have a different definition of "not winning".

Rondo was one of the greatest value picks of all time so isn't really a fair threshold to hold every pick since against.

But when talking about picks 'in that range', he's picked Avery, Sully, Fab, and Zizic all within 2 slots of Rondo's pick.   Fab is a bust and the jury is still out on Zizic but Rondo, Avery and Sully were all clearly 'wins' in that range.  I'd call that hitting at least 3 of 5, including a home run, a double and a single.  And maybe count Zizic as a walk.

What percentage of players at that range ever become 'home runs'?   What is your actual threshold by which you are judging?

If we use the 82games.com study of drafts from 1989-2008, only about 5% of players picked in the 19-23 range are going to be a 'star' and almost 60% are going to be no better than deep bench players.

The percentages drop off to abysmal quickly after that as you go deeper in the draft.  By the time you start the 2nd round, you should expect 70-80% of all players picked to be no better than deep bench players.   By the time you get to the middle of the 2nd round, forget it.

I get the feeling from reading comments that folks just don't really just how stacked the odds are against most of these players being even average NBA players, let alone 'home runs'.

well if you look at the screenshots i posted Danny compares very unfavorably against Pop/Bufford and Morey .. 2 guys that kind of beat the field consistently.
I think DA / PB and DM are the only three GMs held their positions since the start of the data experience so it is fair to be compared and how have they done....
Also Danny's average draft position has been higher than the other two so where he is picking is not an excuse...

Pat Riley, Donnie Nelson (Mavs), and Chris Wallace (Grizzlies) would be on that list, too. Sam Presti as well if you're counting Morey (that both started in the 07-08 season). RealGM has a good list of current GMs (but doesn't include the Grizzlies for some reason, I had to look that up separately)