Is Ainge too concerned with a high floor when drafting

[tenn_smoothie]

I always kinda thought the opposite - too many projects that MIGHT pay off in a big way. I sure would have taken Brandon Clarke this year over Langford. I hope I'm wrong, but we need help inside, though of course, Danny Boy is so obsessed with perimeter players, it hurts us sometimes.

[gouki88]

I always kinda thought the opposite - too many projects that MIGHT pay off in a big way. I sure would have taken Brandon Clarke this year over Langford. I hope I'm wrong, but we need help inside, though of course, Danny Boy is so obsessed with perimeter players, it hurts us sometimes.

Did you really claim that Marcus Smart was a better player than Julius Randle or did I misread. I love Marcus and want him around a long time, but Randle is a double-double machine, though I don't know much about his defense - effort or ability.

Randle is almost the anti-Smart - great stats, but awful defence and doesn't help his team win much.

[tenn_smoothie]

I misread and deleted the Smart/Randle comment. I would agree that Smart contributes to winning and I'm not sure that Randle does.

[Moranis]

Ainge has hit on very few draft picks in recent years.  And by hit I mean someone that was drafted in a spot that would have gone appreciably higher in a redraft.  Tatum is the only player drafted that I'd call a hit since Bradley in 2010 (obviously the last couple of drafts are up in the air still).  That doesn't mean everyone else are busts i.e. players that were drafted too high, but his drafting record isn't what it once was when he had a much higher percentage of hits (Rondo and Jefferson being the biggest but even Perkins, Allen, Gomes, etc. were big time hits). 

Ainge has seemingly fallen in love with the same type of player and he just hasn't been very good at drafting that type of player recently.

i am not quite sure how grant williams, romeo langford, edwards, TL, tatum, brown, yabusele, zizic, and semi are the same type of player.

for the post above, typically drafting in the mid to lower range does tend to produce a lot of misses for virtually every single GM in the nba. while mentioned is the fact that indeed in the later parts of the draft some gems emerge, the number of GMs who can find such gems on a consistent basis is very small.

but now let's look at rozier, a very good value at #16 in the draft. when looking at other players taken before rozier, not all players have done better than him. indeed, based upon performance, rozier would probably go sooner than#16 in a redo.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2015.html

it is too early to judge the most recent draft, but so far GW, edwards, and waters might be players who would go earlier in a redraft. but then, ainge has hit on decent second round picks for a while.

lanford? not enough to judge yet.

Rozier goes in the same general range.  Sure he would go ahead of players taken before him, but players behind him would go ahead of him in a redraft as well (Portis, Harrell, Richardson for sure then you have Nance, RHJ, Osman, and Hernangomez).  He'd probably go in the 13-17 range.  That isn't a hit.  It most definitely isn't a bust, just not a hit.  KO is similar to Rozier in that regard. 

[footey]

I misread and deleted the Smart/Randle comment. I would agree that Smart contributes to winning and I'm not sure that Randle does.

If the same players were available today in a 2014 re-draft, Ainge would take Smart over Randle without question IMO.  The only players left on the board that he would definitely take over Smart today would be Jokic and Zach Levine.   A few others would be coin toss, I could see going either way: Gary Harris, Nurkic (pre-injury), maybe Spencer Dinwiddie (although I'm pretty sure Danny would still prefer Smart).

Of the 5 guys taken ahead of him, Smart has clearly outperformed two of them (Exum and Parker, due to injuries in part) and could make an argument Smart is more valuable than Wiggins today. Only Embiid and Gordon rank ahead of him.

Smart was the safe pick for the Celtics in 2014, and turned out pretty well.

[bellerephon]

Ainge has hit on very few draft picks in recent years.  And by hit I mean someone that was drafted in a spot that would have gone appreciably higher in a redraft.  Tatum is the only player drafted that I'd call a hit since Bradley in 2010 (obviously the last couple of drafts are up in the air still).  That doesn't mean everyone else are busts i.e. players that were drafted too high, but his drafting record isn't what it once was when he had a much higher percentage of hits (Rondo and Jefferson being the biggest but even Perkins, Allen, Gomes, etc. were big time hits). 

Ainge has seemingly fallen in love with the same type of player and he just hasn't been very good at drafting that type of player recently.

i am not quite sure how grant williams, romeo langford, edwards, TL, tatum, brown, yabusele, zizic, and semi are the same type of player.

for the post above, typically drafting in the mid to lower range does tend to produce a lot of misses for virtually every single GM in the nba. while mentioned is the fact that indeed in the later parts of the draft some gems emerge, the number of GMs who can find such gems on a consistent basis is very small.

but now let's look at rozier, a very good value at #16 in the draft. when looking at other players taken before rozier, not all players have done better than him. indeed, based upon performance, rozier would probably go sooner than#16 in a redo.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2015.html

it is too early to judge the most recent draft, but so far GW, edwards, and waters might be players who would go earlier in a redraft. but then, ainge has hit on decent second round picks for a while.

lanford? not enough to judge yet.

Rozier goes in the same general range.  Sure he would go ahead of players taken before him, but players behind him would go ahead of him in a redraft as well (Portis, Harrell, Richardson for sure then you have Nance, RHJ, Osman, and Hernangomez).  He'd probably go in the 13-17 range.  That isn't a hit.  It most definitely isn't a bust, just not a hit.  KO is similar to Rozier in that regard.

I would argue that a 'hit' in the draft is a player that plays as well or better than you would expect from someone taken at that spot. In that regard both Rozier and KO are hits, they are decent NBA players and that's usually the best one can expect from that spot. The fact that some players taken after may end up being better, something one could never know, does not change that.

[footey]

Ainge has hit on very few draft picks in recent years.  And by hit I mean someone that was drafted in a spot that would have gone appreciably higher in a redraft.  Tatum is the only player drafted that I'd call a hit since Bradley in 2010 (obviously the last couple of drafts are up in the air still).  That doesn't mean everyone else are busts i.e. players that were drafted too high, but his drafting record isn't what it once was when he had a much higher percentage of hits (Rondo and Jefferson being the biggest but even Perkins, Allen, Gomes, etc. were big time hits). 

Ainge has seemingly fallen in love with the same type of player and he just hasn't been very good at drafting that type of player recently.

Your definition of "hit" does not make sense when applied to Tatum; he went 3rd.  You can't go "appreciably higher" than 3rd in the draft.

As properly applied, I would estimate that each draft, on average, has only 2-3 "hits" per draft.   I would posture that in recent drafts, most "hits" occur in the 2nd round. Any 2nd rounder that gets decent minutes is a "hit".  Any first rounder that gets decent minutes doesn't really qualify as a hit. Now a mid to late first rounder that becomes all star worthy (e.g. Siakam in 2016) is a good example of a "hit."

Jokic and Giannis are the best examples of what you would refer to as a "hit." They are super hits, really.   Brogdon is a solid example of a "hit."

For that matter, any team that selects very high in the draft is almost precluded from having hits, since high picks can't go appreciably higher.

[Moranis]

Ainge has hit on very few draft picks in recent years.  And by hit I mean someone that was drafted in a spot that would have gone appreciably higher in a redraft.  Tatum is the only player drafted that I'd call a hit since Bradley in 2010 (obviously the last couple of drafts are up in the air still).  That doesn't mean everyone else are busts i.e. players that were drafted too high, but his drafting record isn't what it once was when he had a much higher percentage of hits (Rondo and Jefferson being the biggest but even Perkins, Allen, Gomes, etc. were big time hits). 

Ainge has seemingly fallen in love with the same type of player and he just hasn't been very good at drafting that type of player recently.

Your definition of "hit" does not make sense when applied to Tatum; he went 3rd.  You can't go "appreciably higher" than 3rd in the draft.

As properly applied, I would estimate that each draft, on average, has only 2-3 "hits" per draft.   I would posture that in recent drafts, most "hits" occur in the 2nd round. Any 2nd rounder that gets decent minutes is a "hit".  Any first rounder that gets decent minutes doesn't really qualify as a hit. Now a mid to late first rounder that becomes all star worthy (e.g. Siakam in 2016) is a good example of a "hit."

Jokic and Giannis are the best examples of what you would refer to as a "hit." They are super hits, really.   Brogdon is a solid example of a "hit."

For that matter, any team that selects very high in the draft is almost precluded from having hits, since high picks can't go appreciably higher.

I think Tatum would go 1 in a redraft.  He was selected 3rd that is a hit.  You don't have to move up as many spots when your number is smaller to be appreciably higher, while a 2nd round pick that would move up 10 points might not be a hit either.  It isn't a straight scale.  Value of the selection matters a great deal when determining how good a selection is i.e. the same general range changes based on the draft position.  So Tatum is a hit because you got the best player with the 3rd pick, while someone like Rozier perhaps moving up a couple of spots isn't a hit as that is the same general range (i.e. late lottery or just outside of it).  The inverse is true as well. If you are the 1st pick, but go 3rd in a redraft, that is a bad pick, even if that player still has a very good career (see Blake Griffin going 1, but clearly behind Curry and Harden in a redraft). 

[wiley]

excited to compare Langford to Doumbouya over the next 5 years

That one will take a while.  I would have preferred to gamble on Doumbouya, not just for upside but for intangibles.  However, Romeo could turn into one of those silent killers snaking to the whole over and over.

Also, I think in the next draft we're going to grab one of the many high upside bigs. 

One of the best most interesting things about the draft is what a crapshoot it is despite all the advanced scouting...that makes it really interesting. 

I don't think Danny has a pattern one way or the other.  He really does what he thinks best in a fairly pure sense.  In other words, I don't believe he prefers guards to bigs, I think in the past years he's found the guards at his draft position to have higher upside than the bigs.  One could argue that point, saying he prefers to get his bigs in free agency when they're more seasoned, and lets that color his drafting, but I think he goes for his view of BPA pretty consistently.

edit:  one of my binkies was a safe boring pick--PJ Washington.  Would love to have grabbed him, I think he was picked before Romeo...can't remember.  Wouldn't have minded having both him and Grant Williams...I had no feel for Brandon Clarke...seems to be consensusing as a very good pick/player.

edit 2:  another binkie was Okeke.  Someone took him super high considering injury.  Smart team...we'll see..heheh. And this blogs binkie big from Florida via Africa...let's keep an eye on him.

[celticsclay]

Rozier in a redraft probably jumps all the way up to 10th. He easily passes 7-8 players and the only two guys that would pass him from behind would be Harrell and Richardson. I mean look at some of these guys taken ahead of him Hejonja, Okafor, Mudiay, Lyles, Kaminsky, Cameron Payne, Stanley Johnson. I mean woof.

[Celtics4ever]

One could argue that point, saying he prefers to get his bigs in free agency when they're more seasoned, and lets that color his drafting, but I think he goes for his view of BPA pretty consistently.

So Al Horford and Kanter fit this mold, but Theis and Pourier ?  I think it is a reach, dude likes small ball.

[wiley]

One could argue that point, saying he prefers to get his bigs in free agency when they're more seasoned, and lets that color his drafting, but I think he goes for his view of BPA pretty consistently.

So Al Horford and Kanter fit this mold, but Theis and Pourier ?  I think it is a reach, dude likes small ball.

Baynes.  I think we should trade to get Baynes back asap...

[celticsclay]

One could argue that point, saying he prefers to get his bigs in free agency when they're more seasoned, and lets that color his drafting, but I think he goes for his view of BPA pretty consistently.

So Al Horford and Kanter fit this mold, but Theis and Pourier ?  I think it is a reach, dude likes small ball.

Baynes.  I think we should trade to get Baynes back asap...

i hadn't thought of this, but wonder if this is something that could happen? are we allowed to trade back for him or do we have to wait a year.

[Fierce1]

One could argue that point, saying he prefers to get his bigs in free agency when they're more seasoned, and lets that color his drafting, but I think he goes for his view of BPA pretty consistently.

So Al Horford and Kanter fit this mold, but Theis and Pourier ?  I think it is a reach, dude likes small ball.

Baynes.  I think we should trade to get Baynes back asap...

i hadn't thought of this, but wonder if this is something that could happen? are we allowed to trade back for him or do we have to wait a year.

Wait a year.

[hwangjini_1]

Drafting is inherently a gamble to begin with.    You are going to win some and lose some.   He does seem to swing for the fences but Grant Williams kind of contradicts this argument.

Fab Melo says hi, RIP.

He was in all honesty, not a very good college player.

I JUST WISH HE WOULD START DRAFTING SOME DECENT SIZE AND LESS WINGS

such as:
perkins
jefferson
erden
sullinger
zizic
williams
melo
olynyk?

another possible reason ainge doesn't draft for "DECENT SIZE" maybe that he instead tries to draft the best player and in the draft spots he has the best player may not have been someone with "DECENT SIZE". most folks with good size and basketball skills are gone by the mid to late first round when most of ainge's picks have been located.

your point about melo is something i agree with. simply drafting for size is foolish.

also, it's "fewer" not "less" since wings are countable.