I tend to agree with Roy here. I don't see any team that's not a serious contender to win a title in the next 2 years going after Posey. The Bulls could arguably be in that category, and will have about $8-9 million of cap space, but will need that space for Deng and Gordon. The Warriors will have about $7-8 million, but that doesn't include any money for Ellis or Biedrins, so that space will be gone. The Wizards have a solid $15-16 million to work with before the cap, but again, Jamison will take up a substantial chunk of that (maybe even all of it) and Arenas could be a sizeable chunk too. Whether they want to keep him longterm or not, in all likelihood, Arenas will sign with Washington at least for a sign and trade, meaning their cap space is gone. The Sixers have over $20 mil to work with, but that will drop to about 12 when Iguodala resigns. Do they really think Posey will put them over the top over the next two years? Not enough that it's worth giving him anything more than $5 mil a year.
We're competing with 3 to 4 year deals starting close to the full MLE, with those offers coming from good playoff teams like SA, LAL, NO, Phx. And as I've said before, I'd go to 3 years (maybe 4 if we start at 5 mn instead of full MLE) at the MLE, depending on what we're bidding against, or 5 years under his non-Bird rights.