Signing Posey to a 5 year long non-bird Rights Contract

[Roy Hobbs]

Here's the most we can offer Posey in each year using the non-Bird exception:

Year 1: $3,847,200 (20% raise from this year's salary)
Year 2: $4,154,976 (8% raise from Year 1 salary)
Year 3: $4,487,374 (8% raise from Year 2 salary)
Year 4: $4,846,364 (8% raise from Year 3 salary)
Year 5: $5,234,073 (8% raise from Year 4 salary)

Minor comment that does not affect any of the analysis but I believe the maximum raises
in any year for both the Non-Bird and MLE are capped at 8% of the first-year salary of the contract.
The difference is less than $200,000 in Year 5.

Ah, you're right.  So, adjust those numbers downward a bit.

Huh? So whats the 20% raise all about... 20% in year 1 from original, 8% in year 2 from original ect?

Posey can still get a 20% bump, with a raise in each subsequent year.  That raises is limited to 8% of the *first* year in the contract, rather than 8% from the previous season.

Thus, the numbers look like this:

Year 1: $3,847,200 (20% raise from this year's salary)
Year 2: $4,154,976 (8% raise from Year 1 salary, equal to $307,776 raise)
Year 3: $4,462,752 ($307,776 raise)
Year 4: $4,770,528 ($307,776 raise)
Year 5: $5,078,304 ($307,776 raise)

[TripleOT]

  I've said this before, but $30M over 4 years for a 32 year old that will be a backup wing player  seems like crazy money. How many contender's biggest need is a backup (or low scoring starting) sf? The main thing he has going for him is the lack of decent free agents this summer, so he might get the money, but I'll be curious about who his bidders are.

The MLE is around the median income in the NBA. Posey is at least an average player.  Look around at guys who get paid in this range, like Tonio Daniels, Vlad Rad, Eton Thomas, Nazr Mohammed, Matt Carroll, Jerry Stackhouse, Antonio McDyess, Bobby Jackson, Jeff Foster, Marquis Daniels,  Tim Thomas, Derek Fisher, Luke Walton,  Brian Cardinal, Jason Collins, Dan Gadzuric, Marco Jaric, Troy Hudson, Stromile Swift, Mike James, Mo Peterson, Jared Jeffries, Tony Battie, Raja Bell, Leandro Barboza, Mikki Moore, John Salmons, Sharif Abdur-Rahim, Nick Collison, Earl Watson, Donyell Marshall, Luke Ridnour, Chris Wilcox, Jason Kapono, Matt Harpring,

The only swingmen on this list that I would rank in the same level of Posey would be Bell, Stack, Barboza, and Daniels. If anyone could make the argument that Posey would be overpaid at the MLE after looking at this list, please do so.  Heck, Tim Thomas got a full MLE from the Clippers after six good weeks with the Suns.  I'm sure one of the contending teams will see Pose as the missing piece and throw him the full MLE.  His agent got a sweet deal for Antoine Walker as a missing piece with Miami, and it resulted in a ring.  Then he sent Posey to the Cs, and it resulted in a ring.  Hmmm, I wonder who GMs are going to call to get their mising piece this summer? 

Now, one might make the argument that many to most MLE signings do not bring a lot of value to their team, which is correct, but a lot of max contracts are in the same boat.  IMO, Posey would bring value to the Cs for at least the first three years of a four year deal, and even if he's overpaid in years four, so what if his signing keeps the Cs as a favorite to win the title for the rest of the decade? 

[TripleOT]

Plus, the Cs got Posey on the cheap in this past season. He was a $7m player IMO, so to pay him an extra $4 million in four years isn't a big deal to me (a paying customer, BTW).   

[JSD]

  I've said this before, but $30M over 4 years for a 32 year old that will be a backup wing player  seems like crazy money. How many contender's biggest need is a backup (or low scoring starting) sf? The main thing he has going for him is the lack of decent free agents this summer, so he might get the money, but I'll be curious about who his bidders are.

The MLE is around the median income in the NBA. Posey is at least an average player.  Look around at guys who get paid in this range, like Tonio Daniels, Vlad Rad, Eton Thomas, Nazr Mohammed, Matt Carroll, Jerry Stackhouse, Antonio McDyess, Bobby Jackson, Jeff Foster, Marquis Daniels,  Tim Thomas, Derek Fisher, Luke Walton,  Brian Cardinal, Jason Collins, Dan Gadzuric, Marco Jaric, Troy Hudson, Stromile Swift, Mike James, Mo Peterson, Jared Jeffries, Tony Battie, Raja Bell, Leandro Barboza, Mikki Moore, John Salmons, Sharif Abdur-Rahim, Nick Collison, Earl Watson, Donyell Marshall, Luke Ridnour, Chris Wilcox, Jason Kapono, Matt Harpring,

The only swingmen on this list that I would rank in the same level of Posey would be Bell, Stack, Barboza, and Daniels. If anyone could make the argument that Posey would be overpaid at the MLE after looking at this list, please do so.  Heck, Tim Thomas got a full MLE from the Clippers after six good weeks with the Suns.  I'm sure one of the contending teams will see Pose as the missing piece and throw him the full MLE.  His agent got a sweet deal for Antoine Walker as a missing piece with Miami, and it resulted in a ring.  Then he sent Posey to the Cs, and it resulted in a ring.  Hmmm, I wonder who GMs are going to call to get their mising piece this summer? 

Now, one might make the argument that many to most MLE signings do not bring a lot of value to their team, which is correct, but a lot of max contracts are in the same boat.  IMO, Posey would bring value to the Cs for at least the first three years of a four year deal, and even if he's overpaid in years four, so what if his signing keeps the Cs as a favorite to win the title for the rest of the decade? 

Well Said, and year 5 he is a valuable expiring contract so the deal can almost be looked at as a deal that gives you 4 years of a very serviceable bench play and an expiring contract. I think Danny will acknowledge this as well.

[drza44]

Maybe I'm mistaken, but my understanding of the CBA a couple of years ago would suggest that Posey isn't eligible for a non-exceptions contract with the Cs.  I thought that after 3 years you got a players Bird rights (can offer up to the max), and after two years you got their early Bird rights (can offer up to around the mid-level price).  But Posey has only been in Boston 1 year...I didn't think there were any exemptions to cover that eventuality.  Even the Gilbert Arenas rule, I thought, covered players that had been under contract for 2 years.

So if he opts out with the Celts being over the cap, don't the Cs have to either use one of the exceptions or the vet min?  I don't know where this idea of starting at $4.2M without using the MLE comes from...has there been a recent rule change?

[JSD]

Maybe I'm mistaken, but my understanding of the CBA a couple of years ago would suggest that Posey isn't eligible for a non-exceptions contract with the Cs.  I thought that after 3 years you got a players Bird rights (can offer up to the max), and after two years you got their early Bird rights (can offer up to around the mid-level price).  But Posey has only been in Boston 1 year...I didn't think there were any exemptions to cover that eventuality.  Even the Gilbert Arenas rule, I thought, covered players that had been under contract for 2 years.

So if he opts out with the Celts being over the cap, don't the Cs have to either use one of the exceptions or the vet min?  I don't know where this idea of starting at $4.2M without using the MLE comes from...has there been a recent rule change?

Non Bird rights in what Posey and anyone with a 1 year deal qualifies for. These rights include a 20% raise followed by 8% raise the following years for up to five years.

[Moranis]

You don't give bench players anywhere close to the full MLE, especially when you are already in luxury tax range and the player is well on the wrong side of 30.  I would like nothing more than Posey to come back, but if it is anything more than the non-Bird rights contract let him walk, re-sign T.Allen and you still have the full MLE to use on other players (preferably a veteran center that can give you a consistent 10-15 minutes at center).

[PRIDE]

Give Posey the full MLE for 3 years. Its better to lock him up for the rest of his good years and get him off the books with Pierce. It will give us financial flexibility as the Big 3 grow old. I think anything more than 3 years is a bad move.

[crownsy]

as roy pointed out, no way posey signs that. he's due 6-7 mill a year or so, no contest.

i'm sure danny wants to sign him, the question is will posey take less to come back and be a 6th man, or look to cash in for 5 years and be a starter.

i personaly won't blame him if he takes the money from a subpar team. hope he likes the trophy more than the coin though 

any non-contender with cap space i would imagine. as i said, it comes down to where his priorites are. as you point out, most contending teams have only the MLE. thier are plenty of teams with gaps who could use a SF starter however.

a elite defensive player who can score can easily command 6-7 milliona year.
I disagree... Who would give 6-7 Million(which is over the the MLE)?

[Gainesville Celtic]

Those are basically the only two choices. we can offer a starting of 4.2 and not dip into the MLE,
with graduated increases of 20%
08-09 4.2
09-10 5.02
10-11 6.06
11-12 7.27
12-13 8.72
Total 31.27

That's incorrect.  The first year, Posey can get a 20% bump.  Each subsequent year, he's limited to an 8% raise.  Here's the breakdown:

Here's the most we can offer Posey in each year using the non-Bird exception:

Year 1: $3,847,200 (20% raise from this year's salary)
Year 2: $4,154,976 (8% raise from Year 1 salary)
Year 3: $4,487,374 (8% raise from Year 2 salary)
Year 4: $4,846,364 (8% raise from Year 3 salary)
Year 5: $5,234,073 (8% raise from Year 4 salary)

Non-Bird deals are limited to five years.

Thus, the largest contract we can offer is:

One year deal:   $ 3,477,200
Two year deal:   $ 8,002,176
Three year deal: $12,489,550
Four year deal:  $17,335,914
Five year deal:  $22,569,987

With the MLE, the first year salary will be somewhere between $5.5 million and $5.8 million (not determined yet), with 8% annual raises thereafter.  I didn't do the math for all potential contracts, but a three year MLE deal, based upon a $5.8 million starting salary, would be worth $18,829,120.

MLE
08-09 5.8
09-10 7
10-11 8.4
11-12 10.1
Total 31.3

As you can see, using the MLE pays the same in one less year. I would rather not use the MLE, but the question is what does Posey want? IMO, he is going to want the MLE and most likely, Danny would want to go this way also, as to not have as many years and be paying a 37 YO 8 mil. Not sure which is worse though, Paying a 36 YO 10 mil or a 37 YO 8 mil?

[/quote]

Roy -- unless i'm reading you incorrectly, your #s are wrong on the MLE. MLE raises are also 8% of the first year meaning:

Year 1: $5,600,000 (estimatted starting MLE this year)
Year 2: $6,048,000 (8% raise from Year 1 salary, $448,000)
Year 3: $6,496,000 ($448,000 raise)
Year 4: $6,944,000 ($448,000 raise)
Year 5: $7,392,000 ($448,000 raise)

totals:
1yr = $5,600,000
2yr = $11,648,000
3yr = $18,144,000
4yr = $25,088,000
5yr = $32,480,000

compared to your corrected amounts for non-bird:

[Roy Hobbs]

Gainesville, thanks for listing those numbers.  I haven't broken down the MLE yet, because it's impossible to tell where it's going to be set this year.  In all likelihood, somewhere between $5.5 and $5.8 million.

The numbers for the MLE listed above weren't mine; I just broke down the non-Bird.  It looks like I had a formatting error, which I corrected.

[wdleehi]

I really dislike the numbers I see for Posey towards the end of this contract.


It is just to much and could cost the Celtics some young players if the get to far into the Luxury tax zone.   



I want Posey back, I just don't want to see him earning close to 10 million in a few years. 

[CT34]

The question is, would Posey take it?  He can do quite a bit better elsewhere, if we won't use our MLE.

I think when you combine the chance of winning and contract offer James Posey will find that Boston is the best place for him.  Now some team could offer him a crazy contract but have little chance of winning and Posey will take the money.  I would not blame him because in the end it's about helping your family and making the most money you can.  Plus having 2 rings already a player like Posey could go for the money.  This might be his best shot at money some big time NBA dollars.

[wdleehi]

What the team needs are local businesses to offer Posey sweat endorsement deals that offset any amount another team might offer over Boston. 

[paintitgreen]

I'd give him the 5-year, non-Bird rights deal (about $22 mil, I think) or for the MLE, I'd stick to a 3 year deal. I think there will be quite a few teams offering him about that amount. I can see the Spurs (defensive team with problems at the 3, offense relies on role players getting open 3 point looks), Lakers (bad defense, big hole at 3, not many needs other than someone like Posey), Hornets (could use help on the wings and with perimeter D), Suns (help at the 3, better defense, need to try to win now), Mavs (no problem with veterans, could use another defender), even Jazz, Nuggets or Warriors (need perimeter defenders) or Cavs or Magic (if only to weaken the best team in their conference) going after Posey for that amount. I do agree, though, I don't think anybody would offer more than a 3-year full MLE deal given his age.

Maybe, for that reason, Posey would take a 5 year deal for less money per year to stay on this team. Maybe he figures after 3 years at the MLE (~18.5 min?) the best he'll get is the minimum (~3.5 for the following two years). That puts him at about $22 mn, the same thing he get in a 5-year non-Bird offer from us.

While I think 5 years is risky, with a non-Bird offer the money on the table is less AND it frees us up a lot more this season to fill any needs we have (or even just save luxury tax $). That's worth the 2 extra years to me. With the MLE, 3 years I think. But I'd give it, because I think Posey in the fold for next year, we're still in good shape to repeat. Without Posey, we have a lot more work to do.