Signing Posey to a 5 year long non-bird Rights Contract

[JSD]

I believe this is the only way the Celtics are going to able to get away with not using the MLE on Posey. 

If you were the GM would you make this move of signing a 32 year old to a five year deal worth approximately 4.2 million a year?

I do this for 2 reasons:

1) This allows the Celtics to allocate the MLE toward other valuable pieces that will allow us more depth as PGA get older.

2) It is relatively short money that will not oppress our future flexibility.

Also, Do you agree this is the only way the Celtics sign Posey without using the MLE? I'm trying to think of other possibilities

What are your Thoughts?

[cordobes]

Of course it's the only way.

Yeps, I'd do it. Very nice contract for the first 3 years, then it will probably be a burden in the 4th but suddenly becomes a nice expiring in 2012, when the C's will probably be rebuilding. Problem is I highly doubt Posey likes the deal if it's true that he's looking for a long-term full-MLE deal.

[PRIDE]

I think we just need to give him the full MLE for 2-3 years and no more than that. No FA out there is as important as James Posey. NO ONE. He wants the full MLE and he deserves it. If we dont sign him for that he will go else where for that money. He is not a player we can afford to lose.If we sign him for 2 years he will come off the books with Ray Allen, or 3 years with Paul Pierce. Poseys prime years wil be the next 2-3 years so I dont see the point in signing him any longer. We need to keep the cap situation under control for when PP and RA come off the books.

[Roy Hobbs]

The question is, would Posey take it?  He can do quite a bit better elsewhere, if we won't use our MLE.

[sns0274]

Those are basically the only two choices. we can offer a starting of 4.2 and not dip into the MLE, with graduated increases of 20%
08-09 4.2
09-10 5.02
10-11 6.06
11-12 7.27
12-13 8.72
Total 31.27

MLE
08-09 5.8
09-10 7
10-11 8.4
11-12 10.1
Total 31.3

As you can see, using the MLE pays the same in one less year. I would rather not use the MLE, but the question is what does Posey want? IMO, he is going to want the MLE and most likely, Danny would want to go this way also, as to not have as many years and be paying a 37 YO 8 mil. Not sure which is worse though, Paying a 36 YO 10 mil or a 37 YO 8 mil?

[12417]

Paying a 36yo 10mil is better because of how the expiring contracts become so valuable as trade bait. However not being a psychic its going to depend on how Danny sees the future and the Ray Allen/Paul Pierce contracts that will be expiring during this stretch. How they handle the Posey free agency contract signing is going to give a lot of insight as to how Danny forsees things playing out.

[Roy Hobbs]

Those are basically the only two choices. we can offer a starting of 4.2 and not dip into the MLE, with graduated increases of 20%
08-09 4.2
09-10 5.02
10-11 6.06
11-12 7.27
12-13 8.72
Total 31.27

That's incorrect.  The first year, Posey can get a 20% bump.  Each subsequent year, he's limited to an 8% raise.  Here's the breakdown:

Here's the most we can offer Posey in each year using the non-Bird exception:

Year 1: $3,847,200 (20% raise from this year's salary)
Year 2: $4,154,976 (8% raise from Year 1 salary)
Year 3: $4,487,374 (8% raise from Year 2 salary)
Year 4: $4,846,364 (8% raise from Year 3 salary)
Year 5: $5,234,073 (8% raise from Year 4 salary)

Non-Bird deals are limited to five years.

Thus, the largest contract we can offer is:

One year deal:   $ 3,477,200
Two year deal:   $ 8,002,176
Three year deal: $12,489,550
Four year deal:  $17,335,914
Five year deal:  $22,569,987

With the MLE, the first year salary will be somewhere between $5.5 million and $5.8 million (not determined yet), with 8% annual raises thereafter.  I didn't do the math for all potential contracts, but a three year MLE deal, based upon a $5.8 million starting salary, would be worth $18,829,120.

[rickyfan3.0...]

We have to re-sign this guy. We don't win the championship without him. We don't.

We certainly won't win it next year without him.

Think long term, Ray Allen could likely be gone after next season (17mill expiring contract to go after another superstar to keep this thing rolling)...Posey easily steps in and starts at the 3.

[BballTim]

  I've said this before, but $30M over 4 years for a 32 year old that will be a backup wing player  seems like crazy money. How many contender's biggest need is a backup (or low scoring starting) sf? The main thing he has going for him is the lack of decent free agents this summer, so he might get the money, but I'll be curious about who his bidders are.

[crownsy]

as roy pointed out, no way posey signs that. he's due 6-7 mill a year or so, no contest.

i'm sure danny wants to sign him, the question is will posey take less to come back and be a 6th man, or look to cash in for 5 years and be a starter.

i personaly won't blame him if he takes the money from a subpar team. hope he likes the trophy more than the coin though 

[crownsy]

We have to re-sign this guy. We don't win the championship without him. We don't.

We certainly won't win it next year without him.

Think long term, Ray Allen could likely be gone after next season (17mill expiring contract to go after another superstar to keep this thing rolling)...Posey easily steps in and starts at the 3.

so pierce is the 2? i don't liek that at all. i'd rather keep posey off the bench and get a 2 gaurd back in the trade...

[KelticFan]

Here's the most we can offer Posey in each year using the non-Bird exception:

Year 1: $3,847,200 (20% raise from this year's salary)
Year 2: $4,154,976 (8% raise from Year 1 salary)
Year 3: $4,487,374 (8% raise from Year 2 salary)
Year 4: $4,846,364 (8% raise from Year 3 salary)
Year 5: $5,234,073 (8% raise from Year 4 salary)

Minor comment that does not affect any of the analysis but I believe the maximum raises
in any year for both the Non-Bird and MLE are capped at 8% of the first-year salary of the contract.
The difference is less than $200,000 in Year 5.

[Roy Hobbs]

Here's the most we can offer Posey in each year using the non-Bird exception:

Year 1: $3,847,200 (20% raise from this year's salary)
Year 2: $4,154,976 (8% raise from Year 1 salary)
Year 3: $4,487,374 (8% raise from Year 2 salary)
Year 4: $4,846,364 (8% raise from Year 3 salary)
Year 5: $5,234,073 (8% raise from Year 4 salary)

Minor comment that does not affect any of the analysis but I believe the maximum raises
in any year for both the Non-Bird and MLE are capped at 8% of the first-year salary of the contract.
The difference is less than $200,000 in Year 5.

Ah, you're right.  So, adjust those numbers downward a bit.

[JSD]

as roy pointed out, no way posey signs that. he's due 6-7 mill a year or so, no contest.

i'm sure danny wants to sign him, the question is will posey take less to come back and be a 6th man, or look to cash in for 5 years and be a starter.

i personaly won't blame him if he takes the money from a subpar team. hope he likes the trophy more than the coin though 

I disagree... Who would give 6-7 Million(which is over the the MLE)?

[JSD]

Here's the most we can offer Posey in each year using the non-Bird exception:

Year 1: $3,847,200 (20% raise from this year's salary)
Year 2: $4,154,976 (8% raise from Year 1 salary)
Year 3: $4,487,374 (8% raise from Year 2 salary)
Year 4: $4,846,364 (8% raise from Year 3 salary)
Year 5: $5,234,073 (8% raise from Year 4 salary)

Minor comment that does not affect any of the analysis but I believe the maximum raises
in any year for both the Non-Bird and MLE are capped at 8% of the first-year salary of the contract.
The difference is less than $200,000 in Year 5.

Ah, you're right.  So, adjust those numbers downward a bit.

Huh? So whats the 20% raise all about... 20% in year 1 from original, 8% in year 2 from original ect?