CelticsStrong
Around the League => Transaction Ideas and Rumors => Topic started by: Ed Hollison on January 02, 2018, 02:40:23 PM
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Serious question for those who are good on the salary cap and the CBA:
Say we trade for Anthony Davis in the offseason, without giving up Al Horford. Technically speaking this is not hard. You could package a few players together, and you also include in the package Marcus Smart or whoever we might sign this year with the DPE as sign-and-trades. (Right?)
The question is, Are the Celtics in major luxury tax hell in that scenario? Davis is signed through 2019-20 with a player option for 2020-21. Same with Gordon Hayward. Horford and Irving's contracts are one year shorter, but Horford would almost definitely accept his player option for 2019-20 ($30.1m) and you'd presumably be willing to give Irving a massive new contract starting that year after he (almost certainly) opts out.
Is there any conceivable way this works from a luxury tax perspective? I suppose you could take massive tax hits in 2018-19 and 2019-20, and after that Horford's salary comes off the books. But is that enough?
Thanks in advance to anyone who can share an informed opinion on this.
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No, not really. Having four max contracts pretty much condemns you to a very heavy luxury tax bill.
The bigger obstacle that the Marcus S&T for Davis ignores is that if the Pelicans keep Cousins, they will also be in a luxury tax bind, and will not be able to make a trade featuring Smart work.
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No, not really. Having four max contracts pretty much condemns you to a very heavy luxury tax bill.
The bigger obstacle that the Marcus S&T for Davis ignores is that if the Pelicans keep Cousins, they will also be in a luxury tax bind, and will not be able to make a trade featuring Smart work.
Don't really need Smart to make the trade. Brown/Tatum, LAL, and Morris could be enough salary depending on the LAL value, but either way some lesser filler and the amount is met. Throw in another future 1st and that is pretty solid value all the way around. That only works though if the LAL pick conveys and then you wait the 30 days to trade the player including his salary.
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No, not really. Having four max contracts pretty much condemns you to a very heavy luxury tax bill.
The bigger obstacle that the Marcus S&T for Davis ignores is that if the Pelicans keep Cousins, they will also be in a luxury tax bind, and will not be able to make a trade featuring Smart work.
Don't really need Smart to make the trade. Brown/Tatum, LAL, and Morris could be enough salary depending on the LAL value, but either way some lesser filler and the amount is met. Throw in another future 1st and that is pretty solid value all the way around. That only works though if the LAL pick conveys and then you wait the 30 days to trade the player including his salary.
The OP mentioned Smart. I was just responding to it.
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Trading Tatum would be a bitter pill for me to swallow, I don't care who we got in return.
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No, not really. Having four max contracts pretty much condemns you to a very heavy luxury tax bill.
The bigger obstacle that the Marcus S&T for Davis ignores is that if the Pelicans keep Cousins, they will also be in a luxury tax bind, and will not be able to make a trade featuring Smart work.
Don't really need Smart to make the trade. Brown/Tatum, LAL, and Morris could be enough salary depending on the LAL value, but either way some lesser filler and the amount is met. Throw in another future 1st and that is pretty solid value all the way around. That only works though if the LAL pick conveys and then you wait the 30 days to trade the player including his salary.
The OP mentioned Smart. I was just responding to it.
I know. I was just responding to your response, that Smart doesn't need to be included.
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I know it’s not the question but I’d rather include Horford in a trade for Davis for a few reasons. 1) much easier to match up salaries while giving up other lesser assets (similar to IT for Irving). 2) They are too similar in that they do well next to a bruising big like Baynes, and against smaller lineups as a 5. 3) I think Horford will age well but it’s not a given. Take it year by year but kind of like the Patriot way getting rid of a guy before it’s too late.
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No, not really. Having four max contracts pretty much condemns you to a very heavy luxury tax bill.
I suppose I agree, but I'm not sure it's a dealbreaker in this situation. For instance, could you carry four max contracts in 2018-19 and 2019-20 and pay a large tax bill in those years, after which Horford's contract comes off the books? Or are you still in cap hell after that, given that you'd have to pay up for Brown and or Tatum once their rookie contracts have expired? I honestly don't know.
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There always seems to be this argument against trading Horford because then no top FA would ever sign here again. I am not sure I buy that argument. I think if we had a chance to get Davis by trading say Horford, Tatum, and a future pick, Danny would do it.
The problem with that is that NOP would not want Horford (or Morris and Smart for that matter). NOP should trade Cousins to Cleveland for Thompson and the BKN pick and then declare that they will never trade Davis and put an end to this speculation. Cleveland is going to suk after LeBron leaves whether they have that pick or not so they might as well go "all in".
It would be a tough pill for NOP to basically concede that trading for Cousins was dumb but at least they get a replacement for their pick. They end up with Casspi and Tristan Thompson for Heild and Evans but better to cut your losses in my opinion.
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No, not really. Having four max contracts pretty much condemns you to a very heavy luxury tax bill.
I suppose I agree, but I'm not sure it's a dealbreaker in this situation. For instance, could you carry four max contracts in 2018-19 and 2019-20 and pay a large tax bill in those years, after which Horford's contract comes off the books? Or are you still in cap hell after that, given that you'd have to pay up for Brown and or Tatum once their rookie contracts have expired? I honestly don't know.
Ultimately it depends as to what you’re giving away and what the actual budget it. If you traded Tatum, the Lakers pick, Morris, and worked some sort of magic with a S&T of someone acquired by the DPE to fill out the salary, you could probably have a payroll of $127 million or so if you also let Smart and Baynes walk and fill the roster with guys at the minimum. That’ll produce a tax bill of $9 million and is affordable if we accept the premise. The following year, however, that payroll spikes to between $145-$150 million, with a luxury tax bill that could be another $45 million on top, and that assumes we let Rozier walk in free agency, and fill the roster again with draft picks and minimum contracts.
The following year Jaylen comes due, and while you can maybe resign Horford for less than his prior deal, the salaries are going to end up around the same place, if not a bit more when you take into account the raises built into contracts and Jaylen’s new deal. The Celtics would be $10-15 million over the luxury tax, which with the repeater tax produces a tax bill again in the $40 million range.
It’s not to say it isn’t worth it, as you’d wind up with a 3-5 year run as the favorite to win a title. But it would mean the Celtics would have the top payroll in the entire league for multiple seasons, which has not occurred with this ownership group.
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its just money Wyc
write a check.
;D
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No, not really. Having four max contracts pretty much condemns you to a very heavy luxury tax bill.
The bigger obstacle that the Marcus S&T for Davis ignores is that if the Pelicans keep Cousins, they will also be in a luxury tax bind, and will not be able to make a trade featuring Smart work.
Don't really need Smart to make the trade. Brown/Tatum, LAL, and Morris could be enough salary depending on the LAL value, but either way some lesser filler and the amount is met. Throw in another future 1st and that is pretty solid value all the way around. That only works though if the LAL pick conveys and then you wait the 30 days to trade the player including his salary.
I think you're incorrect. With Tatum+Morris+Lottery pick, even if that Lottery pick made 6 million per year you'd still need to clear another 7 million in cap space to make way for Davis.
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No, not really. Having four max contracts pretty much condemns you to a very heavy luxury tax bill.
The bigger obstacle that the Marcus S&T for Davis ignores is that if the Pelicans keep Cousins, they will also be in a luxury tax bind, and will not be able to make a trade featuring Smart work.
Don't really need Smart to make the trade. Brown/Tatum, LAL, and Morris could be enough salary depending on the LAL value, but either way some lesser filler and the amount is met. Throw in another future 1st and that is pretty solid value all the way around. That only works though if the LAL pick conveys and then you wait the 30 days to trade the player including his salary.
I think you're incorrect. With Tatum+Morris+Lottery pick, even if that Lottery pick made 6 million per year you'd still need to clear another 7 million in cap space to make way for Davis.
You’d need $3-5 million depending where the pick winds up. The theory is that you sign someone for a lot of money with the DPE and then S&T him to a third team with a draft pick to make up for the rest of the salary (think Keith Bogans). I find this questionable personally, but as we’re already going down a rabbit hole in which we get AD, it’s reasonable in comparison to other premises.
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Once GS signed Durant, is it ever really realistic to enter into an arms race with GS for the NBA title without entering a period of "luxury tax hell"? Otherwise, isn't it like playing with one hand tied behind your back? Isn't it probable that ownership has been informed of this and is resigned to their fate to maintain credibility with its fan base? From NO's point of view, the ultra mature Horford seems like the perfect pairing for the immature Cousins as opposed to a collection of lesser talented younger players to make the money work. That often suggested trade seems reasonable and equally rewarding and painful:
Davis and Asik for Horford, Brown, and LA/SAC pick
I'm not trading Tatum.
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We're not trading for Davis, period.
Can't do it w/o dealing Horford for salary, which I DO NOT want to do, and Pelicans will understandably ask for two of Lakers Pick/Tatum/Brown, and if that LAL pick lands 2-5, I honestly want to keep it and add ANY of Ayton/Bagley/Doncic/Porter/Bamba to this core + healthy Hayward next season.
Also any Davis deal would definitely also require adding Morris, Rozier and one of Yabusele/Semi to the deal likely, which guts our bench. A Davis trade is just unlikely because it would now require gutting our team and Davis's salary is high now (hard to match). And I'm saying that assuming we DON'T trade Horford. We'd need to add two of Brown/Tatum/Lakers Pick for sure.
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We'd need to add two of Brown/Tatum/Lakers Pick for sure.
You wouldn't trade Jaylen Brown, Lakers pick and contracts (Morris, etc.) for Anthony Davis? Seriously? Anthony Davis is a generational player. Jaylen Brown and 1 of the 5 draftees you mention could be but aren't guaranteed to be. I take the guaranteed generational player over a 50/50 chance of finding one in JB/Lakers pick all day, every day.
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We're not trading for Davis, period.
Can't do it w/o dealing Horford for salary, which I DO NOT want to do, and Pelicans will understandably ask for two of Lakers Pick/Tatum/Brown, and if that LAL pick lands 2-5, I honestly want to keep it and add ANY of Ayton/Bagley/Doncic/Porter/Bamba to this core + healthy Hayward next season.
Also any Davis deal would definitely also require adding Morris, Rozier and one of Yabusele/Semi to the deal likely, which guts our bench. A Davis trade is just unlikely because it would now require gutting our team and Davis's salary is high now (hard to match). And I'm saying that assuming we DON'T trade Horford. We'd need to add two of Brown/Tatum/Lakers Pick for sure.
What if you could trade Hayward and pieces (future firsts) for A. Davis? Totally doable.
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Why do fans care about the tax? Last time I checked the Celtics don't send us a portion of their tax savings. I expect the Celtics to pay what it takes to win and prioritize winning and improving the team over profits. They already made plenty of money from Bain Capital, the NBA has never been more successful and they could sell this team for a couple billion dollars if they wanted to.
I think they are ambitious and their priority is winning. I trust our ownership to pay the tax when we have to and if they don't it is fair to criticize them.
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I have been in "AD to Boston" camp since he was at Kentucky.
I saw a new KG in him, a generational player.
But now considering all the things I have considerably cooled on the idea. Presuming the deal would be done in the summer.
Why?
Well, there are many issues;
1) The matching salaries complicate a lot as we might have to give an extra "keeper" just to make the deal work.
2) Value of AD is huge, he is young, plays great and has a long-term deal. Meaning they will ask for "hills and meadows" in return. Sure he is an all NBA performer, they outta. But giving a high pick, Tatum/Brown and then probably a lot more due to salary matching is a lot. Not that AD is not worth it - it is the opportunity cost.
"Opportunity cost refers to a benefit that a person could have received, but gave up, to take another course of action. Stated differently, an opportunity cost represents an alternative given up when a decision is made. This cost is, therefore, most relevant for two mutually exclusive events. In investing, it is the difference in return between a chosen investment and one that is necessarily passed up."
Maybe what would have to give back for him is as good or better, while being more sound financially in the long term.
3) Tax issues will come in place very soon, and it projects as something that is here to stay, like forever :). Davis deal makes our sheets a lot harder to manage. I know that he is AD (the pterodactyl of basketball) but this is a fact.
4) I wrote here; http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=94501.0
And there were many good responses, how that even without AD we are projected to have 5 max players (4 guys actually getting the max) just two years from now (if we don't win the chip). That is of course with the exclusion of the LaKings pick/player. 5 max guys is a solid base to compete for a chip, to say the least.
5) AD health is... shaking like a twig in the wind.
https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/27982/operation-rescue-kit
He is the guy that gets injured at a crazy rate. Each fall, each contact, each contested flight, each landing is a jeopardy. He is at the sad/funny level of being injury prone. He is not tragic as D.Rose, but he can leave in the 2nd qtr of any game without returning.
He already had 3 concussions in his career. The worst medical staff in the league is taking care of him. Definitely not a good track record.
https://www.foxsports.com/nba/anthony-davis-player-injuries
Favors boxed him out to the ground:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YONyBP455ws
6) Who says we need another big, let's outwing the league to the death.
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The following trade would work:
Marcus Smart (if you're committed to not resigning him)
Jaylen Brown (if you're more committed to Tatum knowing 1 of 2 goes in this trade)
Marcus Morris (I like the development of Ojeleye/Yabusele on rookie scale contracts)
Aron Baynes (would be behind Davis/Horford for minutes at C assuming Horford gets most minutes at C position)
for
Anthony Davis
Even with the package above, I believe NOP would need to have the Lakers pick also included. That is a VERY large package but is a package which would work without the salary of Horford being included.
Our new team:
PG: Irving ($20.1)
SG: Hayward ($31.2)
SF: Tatum ($6.7)
PF: Davis ($25.4)
C: Horford ($28.9)
Bench: Theis ($1.38), Rozier ($3.1), Ojeleye ($1.38), Yabusele ($2.7), Larkin (est. $3), 2018 1st round draft pick ($1.36 assuming we land at pick 28)
Total Salary: $125m+ considering the roster above only fills 11 spots (so this would require ownership to go into luxury tax which Wyc & Co. have indicated and shown willingness to do previously)
Salary Cap: $101m
Looking at the $125m+ salary cap threshold which the roster above would project to be, this would land us in the vincinity of most of the top contenders in the league with GSW ($128m), Toronto ($124m), WAS ($121m) and CLE (currently $108m but with moves/adds/changes will rise above this if they want to keep LBJ). MIA is slated for a $144m salary cap. Ouch!
IMO, the better time to make such a move would be 2019-2020 when the caps projects to rise to $108m. This would leave us some room to fill roster underneath the $125m zone.
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I wonder how badly Ainge wants Davis.
As of today, we have a young team with perhaps, another pick(s) to build with.
Tatums' third year and Brown's fourth Celtics should have measurables for title contention. Warriors will eventually face some break up issues....maybe not.
Somewhere over the next 30 months another player is added and the Hayward, Irving + Young guys is figured out.
Timing for Davis may not be right yet. Can't do what you can't do. You know Ainge has his ducks in a row...The Celtics, unlike the Warriors and Cavs, are going to...
"Get better with time."
Would be fun if Laker's pick hits and the kid is a big.
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I wonder how badly Ainge wants Davis.
As of today, we have a young team with perhaps, another pick(s) to build with.
Tatums' third year and Brown's fourth Celtics should have measurables for title contention. Warriors will eventually face some break up issues....maybe not.
Somewhere over the next 30 months another player is added and the Hayward, Irving + Young guys is figured out.
Timing for Davis may not be right yet. Can't do what you can't do. You know Ainge has his ducks in a row...The Celtics, unlike the Warriors and Cavs, are going to...
"Get better with time."
Would be fun if Laker's pick hits and the kid is a big.
I’m sure Ainge wants Anthony Davis very badly. He’s a year-in, year-out MVP candidate. A starting 5 of Kyrie, Jaylen, Hayward, AD, and Horford would unquestionably be the best in the league, even compared to the Warriors.
I question if a trade can be made that works under the constraints of the CBA, and I question how much luxury tax ownership is willing to pay, but I don’t question that Ainge wants Davis, because how could he not?
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The following trade would work:
Marcus Smart (if you're committed to not resigning him)
Jaylen Brown (if you're more committed to Tatum knowing 1 of 2 goes in this trade)
Marcus Morris (I like the development of Ojeleye/Yabusele on rookie scale contracts)
Aron Baynes (would be behind Davis/Horford for minutes at C assuming Horford gets most minutes at C position)
for
Anthony Davis
Our new team:
PG: Irving ($20.1)
SG: Hayward ($31.2)
SF: Tatum ($6.7)
PF: Davis ($25.4)
C: Horford ($28.9)
That is a good team but I feel like Hayward is out of position and Horford is too expensive and a bit redundant with Davis (nit picking I know). I would trade Tatum over Brown so that Hayward can play his natural position (even though Tatum is the likely better player) and then I would rather trade Horford and keep Baynes, Morris, and Smart for the better depth.
I don't think NOP does either trade for what it is worth.
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We're not trading for Davis, period.
Can't do it w/o dealing Horford for salary, which I DO NOT want to do, and Pelicans will understandably ask for two of Lakers Pick/Tatum/Brown, and if that LAL pick lands 2-5, I honestly want to keep it and add ANY of Ayton/Bagley/Doncic/Porter/Bamba to this core + healthy Hayward next season.
Also any Davis deal would definitely also require adding Morris, Rozier and one of Yabusele/Semi to the deal likely, which guts our bench. A Davis trade is just unlikely because it would now require gutting our team and Davis's salary is high now (hard to match). And I'm saying that assuming we DON'T trade Horford. We'd need to add two of Brown/Tatum/Lakers Pick for sure.
What if you could trade Hayward and pieces (future firsts) for A. Davis? Totally doable.
And why the hell would we trade Hayward?? Seriously?!?
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I wonder how badly Ainge wants Davis.
As of today, we have a young team with perhaps, another pick(s) to build with.
Tatums' third year and Brown's fourth Celtics should have measurables for title contention. Warriors will eventually face some break up issues....maybe not.
Somewhere over the next 30 months another player is added and the Hayward, Irving + Young guys is figured out.
Timing for Davis may not be right yet. Can't do what you can't do. You know Ainge has his ducks in a row...The Celtics, unlike the Warriors and Cavs, are going to...
"Get better with time."
Would be fun if Laker's pick hits and the kid is a big.
I’m sure Ainge wants Anthony Davis very badly. He’s a year-in, year-out MVP candidate. A starting 5 of Kyrie, Jaylen, Hayward, AD, and Horford would unquestionably be the best in the league, even compared to the Warriors.
I question if a trade can be made that works under the constraints of the CBA, and I question how much luxury tax ownership is willing to pay, but I don’t question that Ainge wants Davis, because how could he not?
Hey @salt, PRETEND the Lakers Pick lands #3. How much $$$ would that account for in a hypothetical Davis trade this summer? What about pick #2?
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I wonder how badly Ainge wants Davis.
As of today, we have a young team with perhaps, another pick(s) to build with.
Tatums' third year and Brown's fourth Celtics should have measurables for title contention. Warriors will eventually face some break up issues....maybe not.
Somewhere over the next 30 months another player is added and the Hayward, Irving + Young guys is figured out.
Timing for Davis may not be right yet. Can't do what you can't do. You know Ainge has his ducks in a row...The Celtics, unlike the Warriors and Cavs, are going to...
"Get better with time."
Would be fun if Laker's pick hits and the kid is a big.
I’m sure Ainge wants Anthony Davis very badly. He’s a year-in, year-out MVP candidate. A starting 5 of Kyrie, Jaylen, Hayward, AD, and Horford would unquestionably be the best in the league, even compared to the Warriors.
I question if a trade can be made that works under the constraints of the CBA, and I question how much luxury tax ownership is willing to pay, but I don’t question that Ainge wants Davis, because how could he not?
Hey @salt, PRETEND the Lakers Pick lands #3. How much $$$ would that account for in a hypothetical Davis trade this summer? What about pick #2?
Depends where the salary cap ends up for the exact figure, but about $6.5 and $7.3 million.
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I am all for not getting Davis with assets. If we get the Lakers pick we can get a big. I think we will have the horses to win the East Next year and compete with Houston or GSW in the Finals. Brown is no AD but he is getting better and better. Tatum will be unstoppable in year 3. If we want AD let's just sign him and let Horford go.
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The more I think about it....
If the offer was Brown, Horford, and the LAL pick.... I think I do it.
It’s definitely a lot, and probably an overpay. But ya gotta give something to get something.
Kyrie/Hayward/Davis is as good a Big Three as you can make.
Allows you cap flexibility to resign Smart and/or use MLE on a SG.
It would essentially be Isaiah, Horford, 2016 #3, and 2017 #1 for Kyrie, AD, and 2017 #3. Younger, bigger, more talented.
Yeah, I’ve convinced myself I would pull the trigger on that deal.
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I am all for not getting Davis with assets. If we get the Lakers pick we can get a big. I think we will have the horses to win the East Next year and compete with Houston or GSW in the Finals. Brown is no AD but he is getting better and better. Tatum will be unstoppable in year 3. If we want AD let's just sign him and let Horford go.
It doesn’t work that way. Even when Horford’s contract expires we’ll still be over the cap. It will be a long time again when we have max cap space.
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The more I think about it....
If the offer was Brown, Horford, and the LAL pick.... I think I do it.
It’s definitely a lot, and probably an overpay. But ya gotta give something to get something.
Kyrie/Hayward/Davis is as good a Big Three as you can make.
Allows you cap flexibility to resign Smart and/or use MLE on a SG.
It would essentially be Isaiah, Horford, 2016 #3, and 2017 #1 for Kyrie, AD, and 2017 #3. Younger, bigger, more talented.
Yeah, I’ve convinced myself I would pull the trigger on that deal.
TP. In this scenario, do we resign Baynes (I suppose we would have the cap space)? I like his, Theis, Ojeleye and Yabusele's grit in the paint.) AD plays C in small ball rotations and PF in normal rotations.
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The more I think about it....
If the offer was Brown, Horford, and the LAL pick.... I think I do it.
It’s definitely a lot, and probably an overpay. But ya gotta give something to get something.
Kyrie/Hayward/Davis is as good a Big Three as you can make.
Allows you cap flexibility to resign Smart and/or use MLE on a SG.
It would essentially be Isaiah, Horford, 2016 #3, and 2017 #1 for Kyrie, AD, and 2017 #3. Younger, bigger, more talented.
Yeah, I’ve convinced myself I would pull the trigger on that deal.
Dumb to include past deals in the evaluation process.
Just because you believe you won 1 deal doesnt mean you have extra room to lose the next deal.
SImilarly if you think you lost a deal it doesnt mean you have to win the next deal by more to even out.
Make each move individually and try to win each one.