Author Topic: Advanced stats observations per 8/12 (after 24 games)  (Read 2156 times)

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Advanced stats observations per 8/12 (after 24 games)
« on: December 07, 2018, 10:25:49 PM »

Offline RodyTur10

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I find advanced stats very interesting, because they tell a story. It's up to us to unravel that story, but that's not what I'm going to try (in detail). I'm just going to put out some observations about combo's that seem to work and which not so much (according to advanced stats, just read this sentence with everything I post here). Maybe it helps with the puzzle how our (starting) line ups should look like. These stats are from all 24 games (decent sample).

Defensive ratings (DR)

Defense is hard to evaluate and defensive ratings definitely aren't perfect in doing so, but here are some things that stand out (pure defensively speaking). Both Theis and Ojeleye have been terrific on the defensive side with a DR of 88 and 89. That they mostly play against other bench units, which are less effective might be a factor.

Rozier has a 95 DR. In fact Rozier and Theis show up on all the best defensive combo's. Their excellent REB% may have something to do with that. Another player who does very well is Baynes (97 DR). On the other hand Morris is the worst defender and it really doesn't matter with whom he plays (106 DR). Horford and Irving don't have ratings to write home about either (103 DR). Where in Horford's case it's remarkable that he's in all the units that do a very poor job on the boards and he's in noone of the line ups who do average or better in that regard.

What's interesting is to compare how new line ups combo's are doing. Firstly Irving/Smart (104 DR) is not doing better on defense than Irving/Brown (103 DR), offense is a different matter though. Horford/Morris is terrible as only bigs defensively. Tatum and Hayward both are better partners for Horford and limited minutes strongly suggest (both 76 DR with Al) that Baynes or Theis would make a great improvement on that end.

If we look at line up combo's of 3/4/5 players we see that Rozier/Smart together are in those best defensive line ups. Irving hardly shows up on those units, unless he's covered by Rozier or Baynes. Apart from Morris and Irving it's Brown who pops up on the least performing rotations. That's a bit weird considering his defensive reputation.

Offensive ratings (OR)

Leader in offensive rating is Irving (110 OR) quickly followed by Morris (109 OR). These guys are fantastic on offense. Tatum scores best of the rest (107 OR). The guys that are out of tone on the offensive end are respectively Ojeleye (102 OR), Brown (100 OR) and Rozier (99 OR). Sometimes the eye test does suffice. What it mostly comes down to is bad shooting, since these 3 players all shoot 48 TS% which is also by far the lowest on the team.

The next question is which players play good together. Irving/Smart scores a high 112 OR, maybe Kyrie benefits from Marcus' playmaking? Line ups with Smart do well in the AST/TO department. Irving with Baynes 110 OR is also a good combination, we've seen some pick-and-roll action between them. Obviously combo's of excellent offensive players (Irving, Morris, Tatum) are high on the list, but Hayward is also a name that always comes forward in efficient units.

Hayward doesn't go well with Brown though (94 OR). Rozier together with Horford seems like a recipe for disaster for some reason (89 OR), while Rozier and Theis do seem to share a connection on the floor (105 OR). Almost every unit performs very well as long as Rozier or Brown isn't in it. Harshly said.

Net ratings (NR)

In general we can say that Theis and Ojeleye have done a formidable job so far in and against secondary units with spectacular net ratings of 15 and 13.

Hayward is a very interesting part of that, since he's able to elevate limited offensive players to great heights. That aspect could make him the perfect candidate to lead the bench unit as he's doing right now. To show you, see below for offensive improvements (while the defensive doesn't suffer) when those guys are individually playing together with Hayward:

Theis 104 => 113 (+ 9 OR)
Ojeleye 102 => 110 (+ 8 OR)
Smart 106 => 109 (+ 3 OR)
Baynes 105 => 106 (+1 OR)

The player who has been poor on both ends of the court has been Brown. He actually is the only guy with a negative NR (-1). Other players who should improve are Horford (rebounding), Morris (defensively) and Rozier (offensively).

While in general Morris and Horford are not a great combo, they oddly enough do play together as solely bigs in an extremely good closing unit (Irving/Hayward/Tatum/Morris/Horford). They have a NR of 35. Having 5 shooters/scorers on the floor may pay dividends when the game is on the line.

Conclusions

  • Jaylen Brown has been dragging the starters down a lot. Probably best to let him get back to his old self in the second unit for now. He has to shoot a lot better.
  • Gordon Hayward has been playing better than I thought. But he's doing so well with running the second unit it would be a shame to break that up. Like one said, it doesn't matter who starts the game but who finishes it.
  • Marcus Morris had a fantastic start of the season, but he has been cooling off in the last 8 games. He's not a great fit with Horford in general. It's probably better to start Baynes with Horford.
  • Terry Rozier is a very strange guard. His rebounding rate is excellent and also his overall defense, but most players suffer from playing with him. Maybe he has to be more team orientated on offense?
  • Not much news to tell about Kyrie Irving, Jayson Tatum or Marcus Smart. The stats show us exactly what kind of players they are on the court. The combo Irving/Smart is a nice find.
  • Daniel Theis and Semi Ojeleye have been excellent in the minutes they've gotten. An increase of minutes for Theis should be contemplated (only 11,9 MPG)
  • After all these conclusions there rolls out a remarkable potential starting 5. Since those 5 players haven't played a single minute together on the court this season. Namely: Irving/Smart/Tatum/Horford/Baynes.


Re: Advanced stats observations per 8/12 (after 24 games)
« Reply #1 on: December 08, 2018, 12:59:26 AM »

Offline Redz

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Re: Advanced stats observations per 8/12 (after 24 games)
« Reply #2 on: December 08, 2018, 10:30:28 AM »

Offline droopdog7

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Nice job!  My conclusion, using the good ole fashion eyeball test, is that rozier needs to go.  He just an awful playmaker (always has been) and makes everyone else’s job more difficult.  I don’t mind playing Hayward off the bench but I’d rather see him in more of s scoring role but rozier as the playmaker makes that [dang] near impossible.

So I start Horford, Morris, Tatum, Brown, and kyrie and bring smart and Hayward off the bench.  Let kyrie focus on getting others involved early in games (which he can do) and end with a lineup of hordord, Tatum, Hayward, kyrie, and smart.

Re: Advanced stats observations per 8/12 (after 24 games)
« Reply #3 on: December 08, 2018, 11:18:13 AM »

Offline Hank Finkel

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Nice job!  My conclusion, using the good ole fashion eyeball test, is that rozier needs to go.  He just an awful playmaker (always has been) and makes everyone else’s job more difficult.  I don’t mind playing Hayward off the bench but I’d rather see him in more of s scoring role but rozier as the playmaker makes that [dang] near impossible.

So I start Horford, Morris, Tatum, Brown, and kyrie and bring smart and Hayward off the bench.  Let kyrie focus on getting others involved early in games (which he can do) and end with a lineup of hordord, Tatum, Hayward, kyrie, and smart.

Smart needs to stay in the starting lineup. He is a perfect compliment to Kyrie.  He doesn’t need to score and can take the tougher of the guards on defense.  Hayward and Brown off the bench will be a nightmare for most teams. 

Re: Advanced stats observations per 8/12 (after 24 games)
« Reply #4 on: December 08, 2018, 11:42:06 AM »

Offline droopdog7

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Nice job!  My conclusion, using the good ole fashion eyeball test, is that rozier needs to go.  He just an awful playmaker (always has been) and makes everyone else’s job more difficult.  I don’t mind playing Hayward off the bench but I’d rather see him in more of s scoring role but rozier as the playmaker makes that [dang] near impossible.

So I start Horford, Morris, Tatum, Brown, and kyrie and bring smart and Hayward off the bench.  Let kyrie focus on getting others involved early in games (which he can do) and end with a lineup of hordord, Tatum, Hayward, kyrie, and smart.

Smart needs to stay in the starting lineup. He is a perfect compliment to Kyrie.  He doesn’t need to score and can take the tougher of the guards on defense.  Hayward and Brown off the bench will be a nightmare for most teams.
Obviuosy smart starting is working but I’d rather see Kyrie setting others up early.  And I’d rather have smart playmaking for  and Hayward off the bench.  I don’t think we’re at our best if we’re using Hayward be a playmaker for guys that aren’t that good.  I think he needs to be more scorer, preferably second on the team in scoring.

Re: Advanced stats observations per 8/12 (after 24 games)
« Reply #5 on: December 08, 2018, 12:44:32 PM »

Offline Hank Finkel

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Nice job!  My conclusion, using the good ole fashion eyeball test, is that rozier needs to go.  He just an awful playmaker (always has been) and makes everyone else’s job more difficult.  I don’t mind playing Hayward off the bench but I’d rather see him in more of s scoring role but rozier as the playmaker makes that [dang] near impossible.

So I start Horford, Morris, Tatum, Brown, and kyrie and bring smart and Hayward off the bench.  Let kyrie focus on getting others involved early in games (which he can do) and end with a lineup of hordord, Tatum, Hayward, kyrie, and smart.

Smart needs to stay in the starting lineup. He is a perfect compliment to Kyrie.  He doesn’t need to score and can take the tougher of the guards on defense.  Hayward and Brown off the bench will be a nightmare for most teams.
Obviuosy smart starting is working but I’d rather see Kyrie setting others up early.  And I’d rather have smart playmaking for  and Hayward off the bench.  I don’t think we’re at our best if we’re using Hayward be a playmaker for guys that aren’t that good.  I think he needs to be more scorer, preferably second on the team in scoring.

Kyrie is a scorer. Setting up others is secondary with his skill set (although he is great passer too).   Smart becomes the setup guy when he is in there with Kyrie.  Hayward is the perfect playmaker for the second unit, especially if Brown is on that unit.  This team is just starting to get their scoring up to par because the line up is more balanced without 5 scorers on the floor a once.  Some players need to do the dirty work and let others score.  It seems the C’s are starting to find that balalnce. 

Re: Advanced stats observations per 8/12 (after 24 games)
« Reply #6 on: December 08, 2018, 12:57:29 PM »

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Re: Advanced stats observations per 8/12 (after 24 games)
« Reply #7 on: December 08, 2018, 01:25:46 PM »

Offline feckless

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Smart should stay in the starting line-up - - for now.  The reality is we have not beaten a good team with Smart starting, so starting him permanently is not justified.
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Re: Advanced stats observations per 8/12 (after 24 games)
« Reply #8 on: December 08, 2018, 01:26:13 PM »

Offline KGs Knee

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Nice job!  My conclusion, using the good ole fashion eyeball test, is that rozier needs to go.  He just an awful playmaker (always has been) and makes everyone else’s job more difficult.  I don’t mind playing Hayward off the bench but I’d rather see him in more of s scoring role but rozier as the playmaker makes that [dang] near impossible.

So I start Horford, Morris, Tatum, Brown, and kyrie and bring smart and Hayward off the bench.  Let kyrie focus on getting others involved early in games (which he can do) and end with a lineup of hordord, Tatum, Hayward, kyrie, and smart.

Smart needs to stay in the starting lineup. He is a perfect compliment to Kyrie.  He doesn’t need to score and can take the tougher of the guards on defense.  Hayward and Brown off the bench will be a nightmare for most teams.
Obviuosy smart starting is working but I’d rather see Kyrie setting others up early.  And I’d rather have smart playmaking for  and Hayward off the bench.  I don’t think we’re at our best if we’re using Hayward be a playmaker for guys that aren’t that good.  I think he needs to be more scorer, preferably second on the team in scoring.

Kyrie is a scorer. Setting up others is secondary with his skill set (although he is great passer too).   Smart becomes the setup guy when he is in there with Kyrie.  Hayward is the perfect playmaker for the second unit, especially if Brown is on that unit.  This team is just starting to get their scoring up to par because the line up is more balanced without 5 scorers on the floor a once.  Some players need to do the dirty work and let others score.  It seems the C’s are starting to find that balalnce. 

Agreed

It's not that our 5 best players can't play all at the same time, but it has become evident that spreading their playing time out a bit gives each of them an opportunity to have more individual impact on the game, thus maximizing their skills as much as possible.

Re: Advanced stats observations per 8/12 (after 24 games)
« Reply #9 on: December 08, 2018, 01:59:00 PM »

Online smokeablount

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Nice job!  My conclusion, using the good ole fashion eyeball test, is that rozier needs to go.  He just an awful playmaker (always has been) and makes everyone else’s job more difficult.  I don’t mind playing Hayward off the bench but I’d rather see him in more of s scoring role but rozier as the playmaker makes that [dang] near impossible.

So I start Horford, Morris, Tatum, Brown, and kyrie and bring smart and Hayward off the bench.  Let kyrie focus on getting others involved early in games (which he can do) and end with a lineup of hordord, Tatum, Hayward, kyrie, and smart.

Smart needs to stay in the starting lineup. He is a perfect compliment to Kyrie.  He doesn’t need to score and can take the tougher of the guards on defense.  Hayward and Brown off the bench will be a nightmare for most teams.
Obviuosy smart starting is working but I’d rather see Kyrie setting others up early.  And I’d rather have smart playmaking for  and Hayward off the bench.  I don’t think we’re at our best if we’re using Hayward be a playmaker for guys that aren’t that good.  I think he needs to be more scorer, preferably second on the team in scoring.

Kyrie is a scorer. Setting up others is secondary with his skill set (although he is great passer too).   Smart becomes the setup guy when he is in there with Kyrie.  Hayward is the perfect playmaker for the second unit, especially if Brown is on that unit.  This team is just starting to get their scoring up to par because the line up is more balanced without 5 scorers on the floor a once.  Some players need to do the dirty work and let others score.  It seems the C’s are starting to find that balalnce. 

Agreed

It's not that our 5 best players can't play all at the same time, but it has become evident that spreading their playing time out a bit gives each of them an opportunity to have more individual impact on the game, thus maximizing their skills as much as possible.

Also agree. When Kyrie is this gifted as a scorer but can still make the right pass in the middle of an aggressive take, you don’t stifle him. You let him do his thing.

Kyrie and Smart makes sense because Smart complements Kyrie on D and can act as the playmaker.

With Kyrie, Tatum, Al & Mook at the other 4 starting spots, that’s plenty of offense (and good D).

Plus a loaded bench. The only thing I wonder based on the #’s above is, if we swapped Mook for Baynes when Mook inevitably cools down, is that enough offense and spacing on the perimeter?
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Re: Advanced stats observations per 8/12 (after 24 games)
« Reply #10 on: December 08, 2018, 03:41:11 PM »

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Smart should stay in the starting line-up - - for now.  The reality is we have not beaten a good team with Smart starting, so starting him permanently is not justified.

Uh, we literally beat both New Orleans and Minnesota in their gyms with him starting, both teams that had been on a roll when we played them.

Re: Advanced stats observations per 8/12 (after 24 games)
« Reply #11 on: December 08, 2018, 03:48:04 PM »

Offline mctyson

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Thanks for the analysis, good work and I largely agree with your points.

I think the obvious change was subbing Smart for Brown, and I think Morris and Smart play well together too.


Re: Advanced stats observations per 8/12 (after 24 games)
« Reply #12 on: December 08, 2018, 04:16:58 PM »

Offline Chris22

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    • After all these conclusions there rolls out a remarkable potential starting 5. Since those 5 players haven't played a single minute together on the court this season. Namely: Irving/Smart/Tatum/Horford/Baynes.

    This would be my starting lineup, and I didn't need any stats to figure that out.

    Re: Advanced stats observations per 8/12 (after 24 games)
    « Reply #13 on: December 08, 2018, 05:56:39 PM »

    Offline RodyTur10

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      • After all these conclusions there rolls out a remarkable potential starting 5. Since those 5 players haven't played a single minute together on the court this season. Namely: Irving/Smart/Tatum/Horford/Baynes.

      This would be my starting lineup, and I didn't need any stats to figure that out.

      That saved you some time then  :D

      Beforehand I was leaning to a line up with Brown in it and I'm fully confident that he can turn it around. Not so much trust in Rozier unfortunately. I was fully behind keeping Rozier this summer unless a big offer would come, but in hindsight I think it was a mistake. On the other hand I still see Brown as one of the best wing talents in the league. However for now the starters really seem to benefit from Smart's presence. And what I really want to see is that Horford goes back to Power Forward where he was so succesfull last year.

      The stats show that Horford is a mediocre player on the team right now and that can't be the case. Also despite their lack of reputation Baynes and Theis perform very well, so please Stevens show some trust in them. For people who want to remind me of a certain thread: I did that because I wanted to see if everybody had forgotten how well Theis did last year and I was happy to see that they haven't (also a bit frustrated that Theis had a DNP, while active).[/list]
      « Last Edit: December 08, 2018, 06:10:23 PM by RodyTur10 »

      Re: Advanced stats observations per 8/12 (after 24 games)
      « Reply #14 on: December 08, 2018, 08:31:47 PM »

      Offline 10610786d

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      Wish I could do more than eye test/conjecture...someday I hope to be able to do Zach Lowe style analysis of tape...but for now...

      With us up 17-0 while starting Theis (and Morris and Smart) against Chicago, seems putting in role players that make simple plays and have low usage might be helpful for our stars young (Brown, Tatum) and "old" (Kyrie, Gordo).

      Eventually, though, our big guns will have to learn to play together...

      I'd be interested to see an update in the next 24 games...for one our role players will be putting up absurd numbers, which is always so interesting. Most importantly, of course, is the progression of our star lineup.