Memphis Grizzlies 2019-2020 Watch Thread (#14)

[gift]

I know you can never really predict these things and it could totally end up being wrong (and there's such a small chance of it happening anyway), but... I'd much prefer an unprotected Memphis pick next year than their pick this year.

Even if it doesn't end up being a stronger draft (which I very much believe it will), an unprotected pick for a team that has a good chance of being in the lottery in a perceived strong draft has more value. It also helps space out some of the young contracts and helps with decision making down the road.

[KGs Knee]

I know you can never really predict these things and it could totally end up being wrong (and there's such a small chance of it happening anyway), but... I'd much prefer an unprotected Memphis pick next year than their pick this year.

Even if it doesn't end up being a stronger draft (which I very much believe it will), an unprotected pick for a team that has a good chance of being in the lottery in a perceived strong draft has more value. It also helps space out some of the young contracts and helps with decision making down the road.

What are we actually talking about here, though, a 2% chance versus a 0% chance?

Sure, 2% is better than zero, but in all likelihood were still getting that pick in this draft.

Personally, I gave up hope of this pick being anything special when we lost out on getting it last year. That was our chance to get a top 10 pick. Even if by the largest of miracles the pick gets deferred again to next year, Memphis will probably just end leaving us with a pick somewhere worse than what we could get this year.

[tstorey_97]

Popsicle headache - too many options.

If Ainge doesn't pick a "small streaky shooting guard" with the 14th pick?

We have late round power forwards to show for this trade:

Precious Achiuwa (Memphis)
Patrick Williams (F - State)

Achiuwa creates an issue as announcers might slip up calling a game late with...

"Precious Tacko for the jam!"

I know, it's a long shot, but we need to keep an eye on it.

[gift]

I know you can never really predict these things and it could totally end up being wrong (and there's such a small chance of it happening anyway), but... I'd much prefer an unprotected Memphis pick next year than their pick this year.

Even if it doesn't end up being a stronger draft (which I very much believe it will), an unprotected pick for a team that has a good chance of being in the lottery in a perceived strong draft has more value. It also helps space out some of the young contracts and helps with decision making down the road.

What are we actually talking about here, though, a 2% chance versus a 0% chance?

Sure, 2% is better than zero, but in all likelihood were still getting that pick in this draft.

Personally, I gave up hope of this pick being anything special when we lost out on getting it last year. That was our chance to get a top 10 pick. Even if by the largest of miracles the pick gets deferred again to next year, Memphis will probably just end leaving us with a pick somewhere worse than what we could get this year.

It's more me reminding myself that in the unlikely event that Memphis wins the lottery this year, I'd consider that a good thing rather than a bad thing.

[mobilija]

Morant is Legit. No doubt he will be in the upper echelon of this league in short order.
Grizz have always had good management. They’ve drafted well and sign quality free agents.
It’s a toss up as to getting 14 pick this year or having it roll over to next year. Next years pick could easily not be in the lottery. The only real known better thing about having the pick next year is the glut of young players we already have.

[Vermont Green]

Morant is Legit. No doubt he will be in the upper echelon of this league in short order.
Grizz have always had good management. They’ve drafted well and sign quality free agents.
It’s a toss up as to getting 14 pick this year or having it roll over to next year. Next years pick could easily not be in the lottery. The only real known better thing about having the pick next year is the glut of young players we already have.

I am pulling for it to roll over to next season so we at least have a long shot at a better pick.  Sure, I understand that even if it does roll over,  the pick still might not be any better or could be a little worse but to me, having the chance at a higher pick is well worth the risk of a 13th or 14th pick turning into say the 16th pick.  Is there really any difference at that point?  So to me, there is shot (albeit long shot) at a much better pick with really limited downside.

In all likelihood, we end up with the 14th pick plus or minus in any case but it is more fun to have an unprotected pick with a chance.

[footey]

I really want Griz to fall back into the lottery. I will be satisfied with 14th pick. Someone decent will fall there (Nesmith, Lewis, Williams) and can be worked into our rotation next season.  Would love Vassel but he will go top 10, and am skeptical we can trade up to get him.

[mobilija]

Morant is Legit. No doubt he will be in the upper echelon of this league in short order.
Grizz have always had good management. They’ve drafted well and sign quality free agents.
It’s a toss up as to getting 14 pick this year or having it roll over to next year. Next years pick could easily not be in the lottery. The only real known better thing about having the pick next year is the glut of young players we already have.

I am pulling for it to roll over to next season so we at least have a long shot at a better pick.  Sure, I understand that even if it does roll over,  the pick still might not be any better or could be a little worse but to me, having the chance at a higher pick is well worth the risk of a 13th or 14th pick turning into say the 16th pick.  Is there really any difference at that point?  So to me, there is shot (albeit long shot) at a much better pick with really limited downside.

In all likelihood, we end up with the 14th pick plus or minus in any case but it is more fun to have an unprotected pick with a chance.

Thumbs up!
Plus it’s always fun to have the lottery chance to root for, especially if it’s not bc your team stinks!

[keevsnick]

Morant is Legit. No doubt he will be in the upper echelon of this league in short order.
Grizz have always had good management. They’ve drafted well and sign quality free agents.
It’s a toss up as to getting 14 pick this year or having it roll over to next year. Next years pick could easily not be in the lottery. The only real known better thing about having the pick next year is the glut of young players we already have.

I am pulling for it to roll over to next season so we at least have a long shot at a better pick.  Sure, I understand that even if it does roll over,  the pick still might not be any better or could be a little worse but to me, having the chance at a higher pick is well worth the risk of a 13th or 14th pick turning into say the 16th pick.  Is there really any difference at that point?  So to me, there is shot (albeit long shot) at a much better pick with really limited downside.

In all likelihood, we end up with the 14th pick plus or minus in any case but it is more fun to have an unprotected pick with a chance.

Thumbs up!
Plus it’s always fun to have the lottery chance to root for, especially if it’s not bc your team stinks!

Its worth noting that most experts view next years draft as better than this years draft, you may very well rather have the 17 pick in 21 vs the 14 in 20 anyway, even before accounting for the upside.

Of course there's only a small chance of this happening, Grizz only have a 2.4% of moving up if they miss.

[gift]

Morant is Legit. No doubt he will be in the upper echelon of this league in short order.
Grizz have always had good management. They’ve drafted well and sign quality free agents.
It’s a toss up as to getting 14 pick this year or having it roll over to next year. Next years pick could easily not be in the lottery. The only real known better thing about having the pick next year is the glut of young players we already have.

I am pulling for it to roll over to next season so we at least have a long shot at a better pick.  Sure, I understand that even if it does roll over,  the pick still might not be any better or could be a little worse but to me, having the chance at a higher pick is well worth the risk of a 13th or 14th pick turning into say the 16th pick.  Is there really any difference at that point?  So to me, there is shot (albeit long shot) at a much better pick with really limited downside.

In all likelihood, we end up with the 14th pick plus or minus in any case but it is more fun to have an unprotected pick with a chance.

Thumbs up!
Plus it’s always fun to have the lottery chance to root for, especially if it’s not bc your team stinks!

Its worth noting that most experts view next years draft as better than this years draft, you may very well rather have the 17 pick in 21 vs the 14 in 20 anyway, even before accounting for the upside.

Of course there's only a small chance of this happening, Grizz only have a 2.4% of moving up if they miss.

I think there's an outside chance, if everything breaks right, that they could have 6% odds going into the lottery. Very unlikely they even get that, but I think it's still technically possible.

[Redz]

Current WC standings:

8. Portland 34-39
9. Memphis 33-39
10. Phoenix 33-39
11. San Antonio 32-38

Final games on Friday:

POR vs. BKN
MEM vs. MIL
PHO vs. DAL
SA vs. UTA

wondering if in the event Orlando catches them with a tie record after the games are done, if Mem has the play-in game and wins, would that put them in the 16th draft slot or would Orlando get it by virtue of not having to play a play-in game

Any teams that don't make the playoffs will revert to their pre-bubble record for lottery purposes.  Which would really help Phoenix out the most if their miracle run falls short.

[keevsnick]

Morant is Legit. No doubt he will be in the upper echelon of this league in short order.
Grizz have always had good management. They’ve drafted well and sign quality free agents.
It’s a toss up as to getting 14 pick this year or having it roll over to next year. Next years pick could easily not be in the lottery. The only real known better thing about having the pick next year is the glut of young players we already have.

I am pulling for it to roll over to next season so we at least have a long shot at a better pick.  Sure, I understand that even if it does roll over,  the pick still might not be any better or could be a little worse but to me, having the chance at a higher pick is well worth the risk of a 13th or 14th pick turning into say the 16th pick.  Is there really any difference at that point?  So to me, there is shot (albeit long shot) at a much better pick with really limited downside.

In all likelihood, we end up with the 14th pick plus or minus in any case but it is more fun to have an unprotected pick with a chance.

Thumbs up!
Plus it’s always fun to have the lottery chance to root for, especially if it’s not bc your team stinks!

Its worth noting that most experts view next years draft as better than this years draft, you may very well rather have the 17 pick in 21 vs the 14 in 20 anyway, even before accounting for the upside.

Of course there's only a small chance of this happening, Grizz only have a 2.4% of moving up if they miss.

I think there's an outside chance, if everything breaks right, that they could have 6% odds going into the lottery. Very unlikely they even get that, but I think it's still technically possible.

Its not, if Memphis misses the playoffs they would automatically slide into the 14th seed since 9-14 in the lottery will have odds assigned based off their March 11 record. So it doesn't matter if they fall behind all of SAS, PHO, and POR, they are still at 14.

[keevsnick]

MEM and PHO both currently up 15+ in their games. If both teams win then SAS are eliminated and it all comes down to the POR vs BRK game. POR wins and they are 8th, MEM 9th. POR loses and MEM is 8th, PHO 9th.

[rondofan1255]

POR win tonight: 8 POR vs 9 MEM play-in

POR loss tonight: 8 MEM vs 9 PHO play-in

Go Blazers!

[Neurotic Guy]

POR win tonight: 8 POR vs 9 MEM play-in

POR loss tonight: 8 MEM vs 9 PHO play-in

Go Blazers!

So if Blazers win and then knock Griz out do Cs get 14?