Author Topic: Friday Pre-Lottery Tiebreaker (Results: MEM 8, SAC 14, LAC 20, BOS 22)  (Read 12935 times)

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Re: Friday Pre-Lottery Tiebreaker (Results: MEM 8, SAC 14, LAC 20, BOS 22)
« Reply #60 on: April 12, 2019, 05:19:51 PM »

Offline footey

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Mostly disappointed with Kings dropping to 14. Darn.

Re: Friday Pre-Lottery Tiebreaker (Results: MEM 8, SAC 14, LAC 20, BOS 22)
« Reply #61 on: April 12, 2019, 05:26:18 PM »

Offline CelticSooner

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4 draws and the C's didn't win 1 of them? Very suspect

Re: Friday Pre-Lottery Tiebreaker (Results: MEM 8, SAC 14, LAC 20, BOS 22)
« Reply #62 on: April 12, 2019, 05:32:42 PM »

Online bdm860

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Mostly disappointed with Kings dropping to 14. Darn.

Eh, #12-#14 I didn't really care about.

It's important to remember that this tie breaker doesn't affect odds of winning the lottery. With the tie, the odds of the of a #2-#4 pick went up to a 4.8% 3.8% chance.  Had the Kings been in sole possession of #14, it would have been a measly 1.9% odds.  The increased lottery odds is all that really matters to me, not the back half positioning.  C's still in the running for the big prize!
« Last Edit: April 12, 2019, 05:41:07 PM by bdm860 »

After 18 months with their Bigs, the Littles were: 46% less likely to use illegal drugs, 27% less likely to use alcohol, 52% less likely to skip school, 37% less likely to skip a class

Re: Friday Pre-Lottery Tiebreaker (Results: MEM 8, SAC 14, LAC 20, BOS 22)
« Reply #63 on: April 12, 2019, 05:35:40 PM »

Offline Silky

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Mostly disappointed with Kings dropping to 14. Darn.

Eh, #12-#14 I didn't really care about.

It's important to remember that this tie breaker doesn't affect odds of winning the lottery. With the tie, the odds of the of a #2-#4 pick went up to a 4.8% chance.  Had the Kings been in sole possession of #14, it would have been a measly 1.9% odds.  The increased lottery odds is all that really matters to me, not the back half positioning.  C's still in the running for the big prize!

But what would the odds have been if they had 12?

Would have been a little better for certain.

Re: Friday Pre-Lottery Tiebreaker (Results: MEM 8, SAC 14, LAC 20, BOS 22)
« Reply #64 on: April 12, 2019, 05:38:32 PM »

Offline libermaniac

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Mostly disappointed with Kings dropping to 14. Darn.

Eh, #12-#14 I didn't really care about.

It's important to remember that this tie breaker doesn't affect odds of winning the lottery. With the tie, the odds of the of a #2-#4 pick went up to a 4.8% chance.  Had the Kings been in sole possession of #14, it would have been a measly 1.9% odds.  The increased lottery odds is all that really matters to me, not the back half positioning.  C's still in the running for the big prize!

But what would the odds have been if they had 12?

Would have been a little better for certain.
If they had been 12 by themselves, e.g. there was no tie at all, then they'd be better, but given the tie, this drawing only determines what happens if they don't win the lottery.

Re: Friday Pre-Lottery Tiebreaker (Results: MEM 8, SAC 14, LAC 20, BOS 22)
« Reply #65 on: April 12, 2019, 05:39:20 PM »

Online bdm860

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Mostly disappointed with Kings dropping to 14. Darn.

Eh, #12-#14 I didn't really care about.

It's important to remember that this tie breaker doesn't affect odds of winning the lottery. With the tie, the odds of the of a #2-#4 pick went up to a 4.8% chance.  Had the Kings been in sole possession of #14, it would have been a measly 1.9% odds.  The increased lottery odds is all that really matters to me, not the back half positioning.  C's still in the running for the big prize!

But what would the odds have been if they had 12?

Would have been a little better for certain.

No they wouldn't have been, it's the same odds #12-#14 with the tie.

Edit - and my math was bad above.  C's odds of picking #2-#4 are only 3.8%.  The 4.8% odds included the #1 pick which the C's cant get.  Still better than the 1.9%.

After 18 months with their Bigs, the Littles were: 46% less likely to use illegal drugs, 27% less likely to use alcohol, 52% less likely to skip school, 37% less likely to skip a class

Re: Friday Pre-Lottery Tiebreaker (Results: MEM 8, SAC 14, LAC 20, BOS 22)
« Reply #66 on: April 12, 2019, 05:42:19 PM »

Offline RMO

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Who gets the Sacramento pick if it's number one?  Philly or Sacramento?

Re: Friday Pre-Lottery Tiebreaker (Results: MEM 8, SAC 14, LAC 20, BOS 22)
« Reply #67 on: April 12, 2019, 05:44:18 PM »

Offline rondofan1255

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Who gets the Sacramento pick if it's number one?  Philly or Sacramento?

Philly

Re: Friday Pre-Lottery Tiebreaker (Results: MEM 8, SAC 14, LAC 20, BOS 22)
« Reply #68 on: April 12, 2019, 05:50:48 PM »

Offline bopna

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So is the best case scenario now:

Sac #2, Mem #4

or

Sac #2, Mem #9

???

If we get to leapfrog to #2-4 via Sac pick, then I don't want memphis to drop hence it would also be good if they get number 4 or something...

Worst case would be is if Sac does not leapfrog to 2-4 and Memphis drops to 9 if some team in the 9-13 slot leaps in front of Memphis...that would be a bummer.

In any case, I still think Danny uses some if not all of these chips in some form of trade for AD...surely the Pelicans are going o be busy in the summer as AD is leaving whatever happens and Boston is definitely figuring prominently in any scenario for AD.

Re: Friday Pre-Lottery Tiebreaker (Results: MEM 8, SAC 14, LAC 20, BOS 22)
« Reply #69 on: April 12, 2019, 05:52:09 PM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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Who gets the Sacramento pick if it's number one?  Philly or Sacramento?

Philly
And we'd get the #24 Philly pick instead. 

Re: Friday Pre-Lottery Tiebreaker (Results: MEM 8, SAC 14, LAC 20, BOS 22)
« Reply #70 on: April 12, 2019, 05:58:45 PM »

Offline Sophomore

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So is the best case scenario now:

Sac #2, Mem #4

or

Sac #2, Mem #9

???

If we get to leapfrog to #2-4 via Sac pick, then I don't want memphis to drop hence it would also be good if they get number 4 or something...

Worst case would be is if Sac does not leapfrog to 2-4 and Memphis drops to 9 if some team in the 9-13 slot leaps in front of Memphis...that would be a bummer.

In any case, I still think Danny uses some if not all of these chips in some form of trade for AD...surely the Pelicans are going o be busy in the summer as AD is leaving whatever happens and Boston is definitely figuring prominently in any scenario for AD.

Not dark enough. Worst case is Sacto pick jumps to 1 and goes to Philly, then Mem pick conveys.

Re: Friday Pre-Lottery Tiebreaker (Results: MEM 8, SAC 14, LAC 20, BOS 22)
« Reply #71 on: April 12, 2019, 06:04:10 PM »

Offline BringToughnessBack

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Big bummer..14 if no lottery luck not ideal and less attractive for NO as well.

Re: Friday Pre-Lottery Tiebreaker (Results: MEM 8, SAC 14, LAC 20, BOS 22)
« Reply #72 on: April 12, 2019, 06:09:18 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Chances are Ainge is trading all of these picks anyway, so I wouldn't get too worked up about it.
They are now worse less than they could have been though.


Is that going to make or break a trade, though?  Nobody else has a massive pile of 1st round picks like the Celtics do.
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Re: Friday Pre-Lottery Tiebreaker (Results: MEM 8, SAC 14, LAC 20, BOS 22)
« Reply #73 on: April 12, 2019, 06:09:51 PM »

Online Atzar

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I’ll go against the grain and say that I wouldn’t mind grabbing the MEM pick this year.

There’s plenty of value in a 9-10 pick.  And I’m just not convinced that they’ll suck for long enough for us to get a real premium pick out of the deal.  By the time we want them to bottom out, they’ll have several early-to-mid lottery picks to go with lots of cap space and no incentive to suck. 

I think it’s most likely that they start figuring it out right as the pick becomes unprotected, sort of like the Kings did this season.  So if we get that pick this year, my feelings won’t be hurt.

Re: Friday Pre-Lottery Tiebreaker (Results: MEM 8, SAC 14, LAC 20, BOS 22)
« Reply #74 on: April 12, 2019, 06:18:34 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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So is the best case scenario now:

Sac #2, Mem #4

or

Sac #2, Mem #9

???

If we get to leapfrog to #2-4 via Sac pick, then I don't want memphis to drop hence it would also be good if they get number 4 or something...

Worst case would be is if Sac does not leapfrog to 2-4 and Memphis drops to 9 if some team in the 9-13 slot leaps in front of Memphis...that would be a bummer.

In any case, I still think Danny uses some if not all of these chips in some form of trade for AD...surely the Pelicans are going o be busy in the summer as AD is leaving whatever happens and Boston is definitely figuring prominently in any scenario for AD.

Not dark enough. Worst case is Sacto pick jumps to 1 and goes to Philly, then Mem pick conveys.
TP for noting that knife could be twisted in our backs just a bit more