Here's a good article on Upshaw's issues. Another article I read mentioned that he'd gone into rehab after his Fresno State dismissal. Alcohol and drug addiction is serious and recovering from it is difficult and often temporary. I would not touch Upshaw at #16.
http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2015/5/21/8627453/nba-draft-2015-robert-upshaw-washington-sleeper
So get a player with very little upside instead, right?
I'd prefer to trade up with Charlotte or Miami. However who says there won't be other players available at #16 that have upside? I'd probably choose from Oubre, Booker, Lyles, Looney, Turner. One or two of them should be available at #16.
As for Upshaw, his upside is probably DeAndre Jordan. However it is far from certain that he'd reach that level even without his addiction problems. To be dismissed by two college coaches, should tell you how serious Upshaw's issues are.
Well, of course, if those names (sans Booker and Lyles, we disagree on that) are available, we take them. I'm working on the assumption that those names would be taken, which is highly likely, that he's going to be one if not the only one with star potential. So take him and just work with his red flags to keep him check.
Like the Rockets did with Royce White? It doesn't always work. We need to get more of a guarantee at #16. We can't risk ending up with nothing.
The difference is we have a ton more assets than Houston, so we can afford to swing for the fences here.
I'm not denying the risk, all I'm saying is he could probably be the best prospect by the time we need to pick at #16. At the end of the day, you still need talent to win basketball games. If it doesn't work, then it doesn't. But if it does, we may end up having a Center for the foreseeable future. With a lot of picks in the next 5 years coming in, we could afford to gamble this one.
If this is a top 5 pick, I get it. But at #16, I'd gamble on a star potential player with problems than a guaranteed future role player.
He could be the player with the highest upside at #16. That doesn't mean that it is a good gamble.
I'm not a fan of treating picks like the draft is a crapshoot so you might well go with the player who will pay off the most if you get lucky.
If you want to gamble on Upshaw, I think I'd rather gamble that his problems cause him to slip far enough that you can get him with a lower pick, but it mostly depends on assessing the sort of information that the team should know about but which we don't.
Obviously, it depends on who's there for us at 16 when it's our turn to pick, but are you really willing to let teams like the Spurs, Bulls, and Cavs have a shot at drafting him before our next selection? The worst case scenario, imo, is for the Timberwolves to take Okafor, leaving Towns to the Lakers *facepalm*, followed by our selection of some crap player at 16, gambling that Upshaw will still be there at 28, only to have the Lakers take him right out from under us at 27, after which the Upshaw-Towns duo dominates for the better part of the next 15 years while we ponder what might have been. Even if they wind up with Okafor, putting Upshaw next to him is a very frightening proposition. I know that I'm going to the extreme, here, but I can also see such nightmare(s) developing, unfortunately. Sigh.