Projecting talent is difficult.
Most people read the scouting reports, and assume that what they read is what the player will be for the rest of his career.
Melo has better touch than Dwight Howard, and he's only been playing or even watching basketball for 6 years.
Most prospects started playing when they were 6 or younger.
Big men develop later than smaller guards, and when you have a big Big big man, and he's only played for 6 years, you have to assume he will continue to get better.
I don't think Melo will ever be a smart player. He apparently had trouble remembering even 5-6 simple plays if he got excited on the other end of the court.
But look at him shoot. His stroke is nice, and his touch is fairly soft. When Dwight Howard and Perk shoot mid-range jumpers, it is very ugly and the touch is wildly inconsistent.
Melo has a natural coordination that is better than those guys. PPG won't tell you how soft a guy's touch is, or could become.
Melo should become a relatively consistent 15 foot jump shooter, especially if he picks just a couple spots to master. Being 7 ft tall and a jumper, Melo will be able to get his shot off in most situations without adjusting too much.
If he sticks to good jump shots, I can see him becoming almost as efficient as Brandon Bass from 15-17 feet. Not great, but definitely worthwhile from a 7ft big man who plays good defense. A viable option, enough to pull his man out of the paint and open up penetration for Rondo and Bradley.
Enough to become decent at the pick and pop in the next couple years.
Fab Melo in year two should be a viable starting center, IF Doc doesn't require him to be a master of the playbook on offense and defense. Doc played Hollins regular minute, even though he had no clue about the playbook. If Doc can take that lenient approach with Melo, Melo should be able to contribute right away, and get consistently better for the next 6 years.
By the end of this next regular season, Melo could be good enough to be the difference between a first or second round exit, and a deep playoff run.
Melo will become a better rebounder as he gets more experience. Last season was his first and only college season with extended minutes. He also challenged a lot of shots, which drew him away from a lot of rebounds. He will get better, and his body is getting better as well.
Syracuse almost never ran plays for Melo, and hardly ever even passed the ball inside to him. Melo shot a high field goal percentage, even if most of his points came off dunks.
He shot decent on jump shots when he did shoot them, but he played on a perimeter-oriented team with many good scorers. Waiters, Jardine, and Joseph were chuckers.
I think Melo can be a top 15 center in the league within 2-3 years, with good development from the coaching staff.
He's always going to make a few mistakes remembering plays or rotations, but every player has faults that we accept.
Paul Pierce is always going to turn it over too much. You take the good with the bad, and if the overall package looks appealing, especially in the long-run, you definitely consider taking the chance.
A mediocre center is worth 6-10 million dollars. Melo will probably play like a 5 million dollar player as a rookie.
A $5 million center usually isn't as good as a $5 million guard.
Melo being at a high paid position weighs into the equation when comparing him to smaller prospects that might be slightly better.
If we end up playing DHoward or Bynum in the playoffs in the next 5 years, we might really regret passing on Melo back in '12.
If we were forward looking, we would probably realize that this draft is our big chance to make a cheap, major improvement to the Celtics franchise for the next half decade or more.
We should probably be thinking about the '12-'13 season as a rebuilding year, even if the Celtics put an entertaining and competitive team on the floor.
Drafting for Win Now is pretty short-sighted, and it could lead to a decade of playoff bubble basketball.
KG might want to win now, but he'll be gone probably in 1 year at the most, and after that, Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, and Kevin Garnett won't be walking through that door.
Topic: Is Fab Melo really a "bust"? (Read 19933 times)