If you're a Celtics fan, it hurts right now. Your top two players may leave in free agency. In Kyrie's case, he's leaving some money on the table to do so. We've been on the receiving end with Horford and Hayward, which were new experiences for us. Now, to be on the other end, it stings.
The league is getting very volatile in terms of elite players leaving their teams, even when those teams seemingly do everything right and can pay them the most. Kawhi and AD both leaving their teams (in Kawhi's case, perhaps the best run franchise in the NBA) and giving up the "super max" are the most glaring examples. But now there are many more of them, including (it would seem) our own Kyrie Irving.
Some of this is because of the shifting culture of NBA players (who may be more interested in building a personal brand than they were in the past, for example). But I think it's also because of the current collective bargaining agreement. The CBA was designed to help teams retain their superstars, by allowing them to offer up to 5 year contracts instead of 4, as well as bigger annual salaries. It also introduced the "super max", such that a team that drafts an all-NBA player can offer him way more than anyone else.
Clearly, the new CBA isn't working in this regard. Part of the problem is that it doesn't really allow a team to extend its superstar players anymore (without that player giving up a ton of money), such that the teams must risk losing them in unrestricted free agency. Basically, right now teams have a really difficult time building more than a 3-year plan. Duplicating what the Spurs did during Tim Duncan's tenure there is now virtually impossible.
This post isn't about how the league should fix the problem. It's about what a team (most notably, the Celtics) can do given the current reality. And I think the solution is to do exactly what they seem to be doing: invest in the youth.
The short explanation of why I feel like this is: a team has ultimate control over a player in restricted free agency, coming off of his rookie deal. In Jason Tatum's case, for instance, the Celtics will have him at $7.8m this year and $9.9m the next. After that, they can match any offer from any team, and sign him to (if that's what it takes) a 4-year deal at 25% of the cap (and maybe 5-year/30% under certain circumstances). The simple point is: Tatum can't leave for at least 6 years.
This makes it really hard to trade guys on rookie deals for superstars in the middle of their second (or third) contracts that are set to become unrestricted. As Kyrie is (likely) about to teach us, players' preferences can change quickly. There is simply no certainty as to whether or not a guy you trade for is going to stay.
So, in other words:
- Keep Tatum and Brown.
- If you're going to give up assets in a trade, prioritize guys on rookie deals.
- Try and keep the flexibility to sign (or sign and trade for) superstars in free agency, that is, AT THE BEGINNING of 4-5 year deals.
- Stay away from the likes of Bradley Beal, eg guys in the middle of contracts who will soon become UFAs.
- Round out your roster with reasonable veterans (the likes of Marcus Morris, Aaron Baynes, etc.).
- Try and have some extra picks on hand (hello, Memphis pick) to take shots and landing yet another young superstar you can control for 8-10 years, rather than 3-5.
This approach takes a lot of patience, and involves a lot of uncertainty (who knows what Tatum and Brown will be in their primes?). But given the way the league is going, it's the only way to build a long-term winner, other than rolling the dice and hoping the guy you're engaged to keeps his promise until the wedding.