2024 NFL Draft

[A Future of Stevens]

I think it would be hard to quantify what a hit or bust is.

For example, if MHJ averages say 750 yards a year for the next 7 or 8 years, is he a bust? No of course not. I just wouldn't call that a hit either.

Going by the contract also seems silly.

[Roy H.]

I think it would be hard to quantify what a hit or bust is.

For example, if MHJ averages say 750 yards a year for the next 7 or 8 years, is he a bust? No of course not. I just wouldn't call that a hit either.

Going by the contract also seems silly.

In the terminology the Athletic uses, he'd be a "reach", but not a bust.

[Goldstar88]

I think it would be hard to quantify what a hit or bust is.

For example, if MHJ averages say 750 yards a year for the next 7 or 8 years, is he a bust? No of course not. I just wouldn't call that a hit either.

Going by the contract also seems silly.

What do people think the chances are that MHJ turns out to be a bust? I’d probably go with about 10%. This is why I hope the Pats take him at 3. Drake Maye on the other hand seems like he has 75% chance of being a bust. Obviously both are positions of need, but MHJ seems about as close to a sure thing as you can get.

[Moranis]

I think it would be hard to quantify what a hit or bust is.

For example, if MHJ averages say 750 yards a year for the next 7 or 8 years, is he a bust? No of course not. I just wouldn't call that a hit either.

Going by the contract also seems silly.

What do people think the chances are that MHJ turns out to be a bust? I’d probably go with about 10%. This is why I hope the Pats take him at 3. Drake Maye on the other hand seems like he has 75% chance of being a bust. Obviously both are positions of need, but MHJ seems about as close to a sure thing as you can get.

There is no way Maye is at 75% to bust. More like 20%. Daniels is far more likely to bust based on college, his fast huge rise, etc.  Maye has been projected as a very high pick for multiple seasons. Those guys bust at a mich lower frequency.

[Neurotic Guy]

I think it would be hard to quantify what a hit or bust is.

For example, if MHJ averages say 750 yards a year for the next 7 or 8 years, is he a bust? No of course not. I just wouldn't call that a hit either.

Going by the contract also seems silly.

What do people think the chances are that MHJ turns out to be a bust? I’d probably go with about 10%. This is why I hope the Pats take him at 3. Drake Maye on the other hand seems like he has 75% chance of being a bust. Obviously both are positions of need, but MHJ seems about as close to a sure thing as you can get.

Hard to know what the exact odds are.  But if Maye is more like 50/50, I'd be inclined to role the dice with the QB prospect than the better-odds WR prospect.

[Goldstar88]

I think it would be hard to quantify what a hit or bust is.

For example, if MHJ averages say 750 yards a year for the next 7 or 8 years, is he a bust? No of course not. I just wouldn't call that a hit either.

Going by the contract also seems silly.

What do people think the chances are that MHJ turns out to be a bust? I’d probably go with about 10%. This is why I hope the Pats take him at 3. Drake Maye on the other hand seems like he has 75% chance of being a bust. Obviously both are positions of need, but MHJ seems about as close to a sure thing as you can get.

There is no way Maye is at 75% to bust. More like 20%. Daniels is far more likely to bust based on college, his fast huge rise, etc.  Maye has been projected as a very high pick for multiple seasons. Those guys bust at a mich lower frequency.

No way is Maye only a 20% chance to bust. He regressed this season. I don’t think any of the QB’s in this draft are close to being a lock.

[tazzmaniac]

I think it would be hard to quantify what a hit or bust is.

For example, if MHJ averages say 750 yards a year for the next 7 or 8 years, is he a bust? No of course not. I just wouldn't call that a hit either.

Going by the contract also seems silly.

What do people think the chances are that MHJ turns out to be a bust? I’d probably go with about 10%. This is why I hope the Pats take him at 3. Drake Maye on the other hand seems like he has 75% chance of being a bust. Obviously both are positions of need, but MHJ seems about as close to a sure thing as you can get.

There is no way Maye is at 75% to bust. More like 20%. Daniels is far more likely to bust based on college, his fast huge rise, etc.  Maye has been projected as a very high pick for multiple seasons. Those guys bust at a mich lower frequency.

No way is Maye only a 20% chance to bust. He regressed this season. I don’t think any of the QB’s in this draft are close to being a lock.

Depends on how you define bust and what the other options are.  If he hangs around the league as backup for 10 seasons, that certainly isn't what you want from a top pick but I wouldn't call it a bust. 

[Roy H.]

I think it would be hard to quantify what a hit or bust is.

For example, if MHJ averages say 750 yards a year for the next 7 or 8 years, is he a bust? No of course not. I just wouldn't call that a hit either.

Going by the contract also seems silly.

What do people think the chances are that MHJ turns out to be a bust? I’d probably go with about 10%. This is why I hope the Pats take him at 3. Drake Maye on the other hand seems like he has 75% chance of being a bust. Obviously both are positions of need, but MHJ seems about as close to a sure thing as you can get.

There is no way Maye is at 75% to bust. More like 20%. Daniels is far more likely to bust based on college, his fast huge rise, etc.  Maye has been projected as a very high pick for multiple seasons. Those guys bust at a mich lower frequency.

No way is Maye only a 20% chance to bust. He regressed this season. I don’t think any of the QB’s in this draft are close to being a lock.

Depends on how you define bust and what the other options are.  If he hangs around the league as backup for 10 seasons, that certainly isn't what you want from a top pick but I wouldn't call it a bust.

If a top-3 pick turns into a career backup, I'd call him a bust.

[tazzmaniac]

I think it would be hard to quantify what a hit or bust is.

For example, if MHJ averages say 750 yards a year for the next 7 or 8 years, is he a bust? No of course not. I just wouldn't call that a hit either.

Going by the contract also seems silly.

What do people think the chances are that MHJ turns out to be a bust? I’d probably go with about 10%. This is why I hope the Pats take him at 3. Drake Maye on the other hand seems like he has 75% chance of being a bust. Obviously both are positions of need, but MHJ seems about as close to a sure thing as you can get.

There is no way Maye is at 75% to bust. More like 20%. Daniels is far more likely to bust based on college, his fast huge rise, etc.  Maye has been projected as a very high pick for multiple seasons. Those guys bust at a mich lower frequency.

No way is Maye only a 20% chance to bust. He regressed this season. I don’t think any of the QB’s in this draft are close to being a lock.

Depends on how you define bust and what the other options are.  If he hangs around the league as backup for 10 seasons, that certainly isn't what you want from a top pick but I wouldn't call it a bust.

If a top-3 pick turns into a career backup, I'd call him a bust.

Then don't reach for QBs or anyone for that matter.  Maye isn't a top-3 talent in this draft and he certainly isn't top 3 in chance of having a successful career. 

Edit - Maye did little in his college career to inspire confidence in his NFL potential.  Against a pretty weak ACC schedule his performance in the tougher games should raise concerns.  Now maybe he just needs a couple more years of development but is he going to get that as a top-3 pick? 

[Goldstar88]

I think it would be hard to quantify what a hit or bust is.

For example, if MHJ averages say 750 yards a year for the next 7 or 8 years, is he a bust? No of course not. I just wouldn't call that a hit either.

Going by the contract also seems silly.

What do people think the chances are that MHJ turns out to be a bust? I’d probably go with about 10%. This is why I hope the Pats take him at 3. Drake Maye on the other hand seems like he has 75% chance of being a bust. Obviously both are positions of need, but MHJ seems about as close to a sure thing as you can get.

There is no way Maye is at 75% to bust. More like 20%. Daniels is far more likely to bust based on college, his fast huge rise, etc.  Maye has been projected as a very high pick for multiple seasons. Those guys bust at a mich lower frequency.

No way is Maye only a 20% chance to bust. He regressed this season. I don’t think any of the QB’s in this draft are close to being a lock.

Depends on how you define bust and what the other options are.  If he hangs around the league as backup for 10 seasons, that certainly isn't what you want from a top pick but I wouldn't call it a bust.

If a top-3 pick turns into a career backup, I'd call him a bust.

Agreed. I was about to type the same thing.

[Goldstar88]

I think it would be hard to quantify what a hit or bust is.

For example, if MHJ averages say 750 yards a year for the next 7 or 8 years, is he a bust? No of course not. I just wouldn't call that a hit either.

Going by the contract also seems silly.

What do people think the chances are that MHJ turns out to be a bust? I’d probably go with about 10%. This is why I hope the Pats take him at 3. Drake Maye on the other hand seems like he has 75% chance of being a bust. Obviously both are positions of need, but MHJ seems about as close to a sure thing as you can get.

There is no way Maye is at 75% to bust. More like 20%. Daniels is far more likely to bust based on college, his fast huge rise, etc.  Maye has been projected as a very high pick for multiple seasons. Those guys bust at a mich lower frequency.

No way is Maye only a 20% chance to bust. He regressed this season. I don’t think any of the QB’s in this draft are close to being a lock.

Depends on how you define bust and what the other options are.  If he hangs around the league as backup for 10 seasons, that certainly isn't what you want from a top pick but I wouldn't call it a bust.

If a top-3 pick turns into a career backup, I'd call him a bust.

Then don't reach for QBs or anyone for that matter.  Maye isn't a top-3 talent in this draft and he certainly isn't top 3 in chance of having a successful career. 

Edit - Maye did little in his college career to inspire confidence in his NFL potential.  Against a pretty weak ACC schedule his performance in the tougher games should raise concerns.  Now maybe he just needs a couple more years of development but is he going to get that as a top-3 pick?

Yep and it does.

[celticsclay]

I think it would be hard to quantify what a hit or bust is.

For example, if MHJ averages say 750 yards a year for the next 7 or 8 years, is he a bust? No of course not. I just wouldn't call that a hit either.

Going by the contract also seems silly.

What do people think the chances are that MHJ turns out to be a bust? I’d probably go with about 10%. This is why I hope the Pats take him at 3. Drake Maye on the other hand seems like he has 75% chance of being a bust. Obviously both are positions of need, but MHJ seems about as close to a sure thing as you can get.

There is no way Maye is at 75% to bust. More like 20%. Daniels is far more likely to bust based on college, his fast huge rise, etc.  Maye has been projected as a very high pick for multiple seasons. Those guys bust at a mich lower frequency.

No way is Maye only a 20% chance to bust. He regressed this season. I don’t think any of the QB’s in this draft are close to being a lock.

Depends on how you define bust and what the other options are.  If he hangs around the league as backup for 10 seasons, that certainly isn't what you want from a top pick but I wouldn't call it a bust.

If a top-3 pick turns into a career backup, I'd call him a bust.

Agreed. I was about to type the same thing.

Yes clearly a top 3 pick as a career backup is a terrible outcome.

[SparzWizard]

Despite Robert Kraft not being involved in draft process, Jonathan Kraft is heavily involved in the draft process for New England.

How to turn a fanbase against you in four months.

[Neurotic Guy]

Looking forward to the end of this seemingly endless wait for draft night.  Tonight we’ll know.  My prediction:  about 8 seconds after the selection at three or the trade down, my brain will have adjusted.  Right now I hope it’s Maye because some of the pundits have convinced me he has the tools.  If it’s someone else, I’ll quickly be convinced by another pundit. Fickle as all heck. But practical too since no one can accurately predict the long/term impact of a draft on draft day.

[tazzmaniac]

Looking forward to the end of this seemingly endless wait for draft night.  Tonight we’ll know.  My prediction:  about 8 seconds after the selection at three or the trade down, my brain will have adjusted.  Right now I hope it’s Maye because some of the pundits have convinced me he has the tools.  If it’s someone else, I’ll quickly be convinced by another pundit. Fickle as all heck. But practical too since no one can accurately predict the long/term impact of a draft on draft day.

Hope and delusion walk together.