I think it would be hard to quantify what a hit or bust is.
For example, if MHJ averages say 750 yards a year for the next 7 or 8 years, is he a bust? No of course not. I just wouldn't call that a hit either.
Going by the contract also seems silly.
What do people think the chances are that MHJ turns out to be a bust? I’d probably go with about 10%. This is why I hope the Pats take him at 3. Drake Maye on the other hand seems like he has 75% chance of being a bust. Obviously both are positions of need, but MHJ seems about as close to a sure thing as you can get.
There is no way Maye is at 75% to bust. More like 20%. Daniels is far more likely to bust based on college, his fast huge rise, etc. Maye has been projected as a very high pick for multiple seasons. Those guys bust at a mich lower frequency.
No way is Maye only a 20% chance to bust. He regressed this season. I don’t think any of the QB’s in this draft are close to being a lock.
Depends on how you define bust and what the other options are. If he hangs around the league as backup for 10 seasons, that certainly isn't what you want from a top pick but I wouldn't call it a bust.
If a top-3 pick turns into a career backup, I'd call him a bust.
Then don't reach for QBs or anyone for that matter. Maye isn't a top-3 talent in this draft and he certainly isn't top 3 in chance of having a successful career.
Edit - Maye did little in his college career to inspire confidence in his NFL potential. Against a pretty weak ACC schedule his performance in the tougher games should raise concerns. Now maybe he just needs a couple more years of development but is he going to get that as a top-3 pick?
I just don't buy that a guy in 2 years of starting that had 63 TD's and 16 INT's with a 65% completion percentage playing for a mediocre team and lesser talent had a bad college experience. Compare that to 4 year starter Daniels and his 89 TD and 20 INT with a 66% completion percentage, playing on a team with NFL players across the entire team his last 2 years. Daniels 5th year was amazing, but there was so much talent around him, he could easily be a product of the talent and bust out. Maye was a lot better at UNC than Daniels was at ASU. A LOT better.
It was Drake Maye's decision to play for UNC. He was originally committed to Bama to play for the GOAT but he reneged on that. Not sure why he did that but I expect it was because he would have sat behind Bryce Young for 2 seasons. Even after he backed off from Bama, he could have gone to another higher caliber school with more talent but he chose to stay home and play for UNC. Let's contrast that with Mac Jones who could have taken the easy route and signed with Kentucky but instead he chose to come to Bama with Hurts established as the starting QB and with Tua committed to Bama in his same draft class.
While UNC doesn't have the talent of top caliber teams, it actually had one of the most talented ACC teams. Rather than having to play against much more talented SEC teams, Maye just had to compete against lesser ACC teams but UNC still lost 4 games in both regular seasons with Maye as the starting QB. The problem with just looking at his overall numbers is it hides his poor performances against the better teams that he did face.
I'm not sold on any of the QBs in this draft including Williams. Regarding Daniels, at least he did come to the SEC and show that he could perform at a very high level against top competition albeit with some very talented teammates helping him.
