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Need Pelicans To Win A Bit More (At Least For The Near Future)
« on: December 18, 2018, 11:12:21 AM »

Offline Phantom255x

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Worst case scenario, they do horrible from now until the trade deadline, are one of the bottom teams in the West and ultimately decide to deal AD at the deadline. We obviously can't trade for him because of the stupid Rose Rule (unless Kyrie is in package) while a team like LAL (yuck) can have a chance at landing him.  :(

If Pelicans win a bit, maybe are around a playoff spot (even as a 7-8 seed) then NOP keeps him rest of the year (meaning he isn't dealt at the deadline).

After that, of course you hope NOP falters rest of the way and it contributes to AD wanting out by next summer.

THEN Boston can have a chance at landing him and at the very least be up there in the bidding for him with what I expect to be a fairly strong, competitive offer.  :)

For now, they are like 12th in the West, just 1.5 back of a playoff spot but also just 1 ahead from being 2nd worst in the West.
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Re: Need Pelicans To Win A Bit More (At Least For The Near Future)
« Reply #1 on: December 18, 2018, 11:30:41 AM »

Offline A Future of Stevens

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I keep going back and forth on whether or not the Pelicans having a change of heart midseason is horrible for us. Say they decide they could move AD, are they that incompetent that they wouldn't wait until the offseason where the "biggest fish" could be in play? Why would they jump the gun when Boston couldn't be involved? It ruins their leverage. Without Boston, there aren't many competing elite assets to drive up the price.
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Re: Need Pelicans To Win A Bit More (At Least For The Near Future)
« Reply #2 on: December 18, 2018, 11:39:56 AM »

Online Moranis

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I can't see any way they trade Davis this year as they absolutely want to offer him the supermax and see what he does.  If he turns that down, then they just move him in July, but there is no way they don't get to the summer.  The only caveat would be some team throws everything at them such that they just can't turn it down - like say the Lakers give them all 4 young players and take back Moore or some other bad contract (by including KCP in the trade).  I think they would be hard pressed to turn down Ingram, Kuzma, Ball, and Hart.  But I can't see the Lakers doing that so I don't think it is a realistic option.
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Re: Need Pelicans To Win A Bit More (At Least For The Near Future)
« Reply #3 on: December 18, 2018, 11:53:57 AM »

Offline smokeablount

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The Pelicans having I believe a top 12 point differential in the league, right around top 6 in the West iirc, gives me hope that they'll stick it out, believing they could peak as a #5-6 seed.
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Re: Need Pelicans To Win A Bit More (At Least For The Near Future)
« Reply #4 on: December 18, 2018, 12:02:03 PM »

Offline mef730

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I keep going back and forth on whether or not the Pelicans having a change of heart midseason is horrible for us. Say they decide they could move AD, are they that incompetent that they wouldn't wait until the offseason where the "biggest fish" could be in play? Why would they jump the gun when Boston couldn't be involved? It ruins their leverage. Without Boston, there aren't many competing elite assets to drive up the price.

I agree 100%. If it's a choice of waiting six months or not being able to deal with the team that could offer you the best package, you'll wait the six months.

Mike

Re: Need Pelicans To Win A Bit More (At Least For The Near Future)
« Reply #5 on: December 18, 2018, 12:13:53 PM »

Offline footey

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I can't see any way they trade Davis this year as they absolutely want to offer him the supermax and see what he does.  If he turns that down, then they just move him in July, but there is no way they don't get to the summer.  The only caveat would be some team throws everything at them such that they just can't turn it down - like say the Lakers give them all 4 young players and take back Moore or some other bad contract (by including KCP in the trade).  I think they would be hard pressed to turn down Ingram, Kuzma, Ball, and Hart.  But I can't see the Lakers doing that so I don't think it is a realistic option.

 I doubt Pels would entertain trading without first analyzing Boston offer, which can’t be made until season’s end. That’s how a smart GM drives the price up. Plus everything equal between Boston offer and Laker offer, teams generally prefer trading outside conference. Boston could match that offer easily plus trump it with the bevy of draft picks in its arsenal. Only way I see Lakers winning this is if AD says he does not want to be traded to Boston.

Re: Need Pelicans To Win A Bit More (At Least For The Near Future)
« Reply #6 on: December 18, 2018, 12:52:50 PM »

Online Big333223

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I can't see any way they trade Davis this year as they absolutely want to offer him the supermax and see what he does.  If he turns that down, then they just move him in July, but there is no way they don't get to the summer.  The only caveat would be some team throws everything at them such that they just can't turn it down - like say the Lakers give them all 4 young players and take back Moore or some other bad contract (by including KCP in the trade).  I think they would be hard pressed to turn down Ingram, Kuzma, Ball, and Hart.  But I can't see the Lakers doing that so I don't think it is a realistic option.
This.

I don't think there's any benefit for the Pelicans to trade him now rather than in the summer. Plus, if they wait for the summer and he takes the super max then they've got on the of 5 best players in the league, long term. That has to be their hope. No reason not to wait it out.
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Re: Need Pelicans To Win A Bit More (At Least For The Near Future)
« Reply #7 on: December 18, 2018, 01:11:21 PM »

Offline bdm860

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I keep going back and forth on whether or not the Pelicans having a change of heart midseason is horrible for us. Say they decide they could move AD, are they that incompetent that they wouldn't wait until the offseason where the "biggest fish" could be in play? Why would they jump the gun when Boston couldn't be involved? It ruins their leverage. Without Boston, there aren't many competing elite assets to drive up the price.

I agree 100%. If it's a choice of waiting six months or not being able to deal with the team that could offer you the best package, you'll wait the six months.

Mike

Do you guys think that New Orleans has no idea what Boston would offer?

Just because they can't make a trade yet, doesn't mean they can't talk.  New Orleans has been analyzing Boston's potential offer all year probably, so have other teams hoping to be in the Davis sweepstakes.

If the Pelicans did trade Davis this deadline, I would take it to mean they thought the trade they made was better than the offer Danny would make in the summer.  So if the Pelicans traded Davis for Ingram + filler + 3 Laker firsts ('19 + '21 + '23), it means the Pelicans liked Ingram better than Tatum, or Danny let it be known he wouldn't include Tatum in a deal, and/or they thought the Lakers picks were better than the picks Boston would be offering.   It means the Pelicans thought the Lakers offer was better than Boston's future offer, not that they didn't want to wait.

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Re: Need Pelicans To Win A Bit More (At Least For The Near Future)
« Reply #8 on: December 18, 2018, 01:50:26 PM »

Online Moranis

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I can't see any way they trade Davis this year as they absolutely want to offer him the supermax and see what he does.  If he turns that down, then they just move him in July, but there is no way they don't get to the summer.  The only caveat would be some team throws everything at them such that they just can't turn it down - like say the Lakers give them all 4 young players and take back Moore or some other bad contract (by including KCP in the trade).  I think they would be hard pressed to turn down Ingram, Kuzma, Ball, and Hart.  But I can't see the Lakers doing that so I don't think it is a realistic option.

 I doubt Pels would entertain trading without first analyzing Boston offer, which can’t be made until season’s end. That’s how a smart GM drives the price up. Plus everything equal between Boston offer and Laker offer, teams generally prefer trading outside conference. Boston could match that offer easily plus trump it with the bevy of draft picks in its arsenal. Only way I see Lakers winning this is if AD says he does not want to be traded to Boston.
Boston could not easily trump that offer.  It is arguable they couldn't even beat that depending on a team's thoughts on the various young players.  And right now, Boston doesn't have a single lottery pick next summer and if everything goes wrong could have 2 very late 1st's (its own and Philly's) plus the future unknown of Memphis and LAC (and LA could end up a 2nd rounder). 
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Re: Need Pelicans To Win A Bit More (At Least For The Near Future)
« Reply #9 on: December 18, 2018, 02:00:48 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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I can't see any way they trade Davis this year as they absolutely want to offer him the supermax and see what he does.  If he turns that down, then they just move him in July, but there is no way they don't get to the summer.  The only caveat would be some team throws everything at them such that they just can't turn it down - like say the Lakers give them all 4 young players and take back Moore or some other bad contract (by including KCP in the trade).  I think they would be hard pressed to turn down Ingram, Kuzma, Ball, and Hart.  But I can't see the Lakers doing that so I don't think it is a realistic option.

 I doubt Pels would entertain trading without first analyzing Boston offer, which can’t be made until season’s end. That’s how a smart GM drives the price up. Plus everything equal between Boston offer and Laker offer, teams generally prefer trading outside conference. Boston could match that offer easily plus trump it with the bevy of draft picks in its arsenal. Only way I see Lakers winning this is if AD says he does not want to be traded to Boston.
Boston could not easily trump that offer.  It is arguable they couldn't even beat that depending on a team's thoughts on the various young players.  And right now, Boston doesn't have a single lottery pick next summer and if everything goes wrong could have 2 very late 1st's (its own and Philly's) plus the future unknown of Memphis and LAC (and LA could end up a 2nd rounder).

Wait so in this scenario Sac doesn't make the playoffs, but as the 12th best odds, they win the lottery and then the pick goes to philly? you really are a pessimistic dude

Re: Need Pelicans To Win A Bit More (At Least For The Near Future)
« Reply #10 on: December 18, 2018, 02:17:27 PM »

Offline footey

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I can't see any way they trade Davis this year as they absolutely want to offer him the supermax and see what he does.  If he turns that down, then they just move him in July, but there is no way they don't get to the summer.  The only caveat would be some team throws everything at them such that they just can't turn it down - like say the Lakers give them all 4 young players and take back Moore or some other bad contract (by including KCP in the trade).  I think they would be hard pressed to turn down Ingram, Kuzma, Ball, and Hart.  But I can't see the Lakers doing that so I don't think it is a realistic option.

 I doubt Pels would entertain trading without first analyzing Boston offer, which can’t be made until season’s end. That’s how a smart GM drives the price up. Plus everything equal between Boston offer and Laker offer, teams generally prefer trading outside conference. Boston could match that offer easily plus trump it with the bevy of draft picks in its arsenal. Only way I see Lakers winning this is if AD says he does not want to be traded to Boston.
Boston could not easily trump that offer.  It is arguable they couldn't even beat that depending on a team's thoughts on the various young players.  And right now, Boston doesn't have a single lottery pick next summer and if everything goes wrong could have 2 very late 1st's (its own and Philly's) plus the future unknown of Memphis and LAC (and LA could end up a 2nd rounder).

Any trade package is only as good as the best player being offered.  Celtics would feature Tatum.  What player on LA would be considered by rational GM just as good or better than Tatum?  Ingram? Ball?  Kuzma?  The draft picks are gravy, something that the Celtics have a lot more of than the Lakers. 

Re: Need Pelicans To Win A Bit More (At Least For The Near Future)
« Reply #11 on: December 18, 2018, 03:08:56 PM »

Online Moranis

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I can't see any way they trade Davis this year as they absolutely want to offer him the supermax and see what he does.  If he turns that down, then they just move him in July, but there is no way they don't get to the summer.  The only caveat would be some team throws everything at them such that they just can't turn it down - like say the Lakers give them all 4 young players and take back Moore or some other bad contract (by including KCP in the trade).  I think they would be hard pressed to turn down Ingram, Kuzma, Ball, and Hart.  But I can't see the Lakers doing that so I don't think it is a realistic option.

 I doubt Pels would entertain trading without first analyzing Boston offer, which can’t be made until season’s end. That’s how a smart GM drives the price up. Plus everything equal between Boston offer and Laker offer, teams generally prefer trading outside conference. Boston could match that offer easily plus trump it with the bevy of draft picks in its arsenal. Only way I see Lakers winning this is if AD says he does not want to be traded to Boston.
Boston could not easily trump that offer.  It is arguable they couldn't even beat that depending on a team's thoughts on the various young players.  And right now, Boston doesn't have a single lottery pick next summer and if everything goes wrong could have 2 very late 1st's (its own and Philly's) plus the future unknown of Memphis and LAC (and LA could end up a 2nd rounder).

Any trade package is only as good as the best player being offered.  Celtics would feature Tatum.  What player on LA would be considered by rational GM just as good or better than Tatum?  Ingram? Ball?  Kuzma?  The draft picks are gravy, something that the Celtics have a lot more of than the Lakers.
Tatum is a better prospect then those guys, but I'm not sure he is so much better a prospect than Kuzma or Ingram to make up for the fact that there are 2 of them (thus giving the Pelicans 2 cracks at a player living up to the potential), especially with Ball and Hart thrown in.  Even with Brown (who is Boston's only other non-draft pick asset), I don't know that Boston's 2 is better than the Los Angeles 4.  Now if the Sacramento pick lands at 2 or 3, Memphis is in the back half of the top 10, LAC is 15, and Boston's pick in the late 20's, that would change things a great deal as that provides some high level draft capital, but at this point that draft capital is a huge unknown.
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Re: Need Pelicans To Win A Bit More (At Least For The Near Future)
« Reply #12 on: December 18, 2018, 03:16:21 PM »

Online Moranis

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I can't see any way they trade Davis this year as they absolutely want to offer him the supermax and see what he does.  If he turns that down, then they just move him in July, but there is no way they don't get to the summer.  The only caveat would be some team throws everything at them such that they just can't turn it down - like say the Lakers give them all 4 young players and take back Moore or some other bad contract (by including KCP in the trade).  I think they would be hard pressed to turn down Ingram, Kuzma, Ball, and Hart.  But I can't see the Lakers doing that so I don't think it is a realistic option.

 I doubt Pels would entertain trading without first analyzing Boston offer, which can’t be made until season’s end. That’s how a smart GM drives the price up. Plus everything equal between Boston offer and Laker offer, teams generally prefer trading outside conference. Boston could match that offer easily plus trump it with the bevy of draft picks in its arsenal. Only way I see Lakers winning this is if AD says he does not want to be traded to Boston.
Boston could not easily trump that offer.  It is arguable they couldn't even beat that depending on a team's thoughts on the various young players.  And right now, Boston doesn't have a single lottery pick next summer and if everything goes wrong could have 2 very late 1st's (its own and Philly's) plus the future unknown of Memphis and LAC (and LA could end up a 2nd rounder).

Wait so in this scenario Sac doesn't make the playoffs, but as the 12th best odds, they win the lottery and then the pick goes to philly? you really are a pessimistic dude
who says they would have the 12th best odds in that scenario.  They could end up as the 2nd worst team in the West pretty easily (they aren't catching Phoenix), so even if they end up with a better record than every other Eastern team that puts them at the 9th best odds, and I don't think they end up with a better record then every other Eastern team, as I think Sacramento ends up in the low to mid 30's for wins at this point (and there will likely be at least a couple of eastern teams not making the playoffs with more wins than that).  now maybe they don't finish with the 2nd worst record in the west either.  Remember, last year they had the 7th best odds and ended up at 2 and that was with much worse lottery odds, as they changed the odds this year giving better teams better odds. 

And let me be clear, I don't expect that to happen, as I think Boston will get the Sacramento pick and it will be around 8.  I think the Memphis pick is going to convey, and hopefully it will be in the same general range as the Sacramento pick, though I would guess it is probably in the 12-15 range.  I don't actually think the Clippers will make the playoffs this year, so I don't expect that one to convey and I don't actually think they will land anyone of note this summer such that they don't make the playoffs next year and that pick ends up as a 2nd rounder.
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Re: Need Pelicans To Win A Bit More (At Least For The Near Future)
« Reply #13 on: December 18, 2018, 03:17:22 PM »

Offline footey

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I can't see any way they trade Davis this year as they absolutely want to offer him the supermax and see what he does.  If he turns that down, then they just move him in July, but there is no way they don't get to the summer.  The only caveat would be some team throws everything at them such that they just can't turn it down - like say the Lakers give them all 4 young players and take back Moore or some other bad contract (by including KCP in the trade).  I think they would be hard pressed to turn down Ingram, Kuzma, Ball, and Hart.  But I can't see the Lakers doing that so I don't think it is a realistic option.

 I doubt Pels would entertain trading without first analyzing Boston offer, which can’t be made until season’s end. That’s how a smart GM drives the price up. Plus everything equal between Boston offer and Laker offer, teams generally prefer trading outside conference. Boston could match that offer easily plus trump it with the bevy of draft picks in its arsenal. Only way I see Lakers winning this is if AD says he does not want to be traded to Boston.
Boston could not easily trump that offer.  It is arguable they couldn't even beat that depending on a team's thoughts on the various young players.  And right now, Boston doesn't have a single lottery pick next summer and if everything goes wrong could have 2 very late 1st's (its own and Philly's) plus the future unknown of Memphis and LAC (and LA could end up a 2nd rounder).

Any trade package is only as good as the best player being offered.  Celtics would feature Tatum.  What player on LA would be considered by rational GM just as good or better than Tatum?  Ingram? Ball?  Kuzma?  The draft picks are gravy, something that the Celtics have a lot more of than the Lakers.
Tatum is a better prospect then those guys, but I'm not sure he is so much better a prospect than Kuzma or Ingram to make up for the fact that there are 2 of them (thus giving the Pelicans 2 cracks at a player living up to the potential), especially with Ball and Hart thrown in.  Even with Brown (who is Boston's only other non-draft pick asset), I don't know that Boston's 2 is better than the Los Angeles 4.  Now if the Sacramento pick lands at 2 or 3, Memphis is in the back half of the top 10, LAC is 15, and Boston's pick in the late 20's, that would change things a great deal as that provides some high level draft capital, but at this point that draft capital is a huge unknown.

Yes, sure, I would assume that in addition to Tatum, Boston would have to offer Brown, maybe Smart, the 3-4 draft picks, and maybe even Williams, plus whatever salary filler would be needed. I'd like to also include Rozier but due to expiring can't make that work unless sign and trade, and even that would only count for half his salary.

I think we both agree that it is highly unlikely a trade would occur until after the season. 

Re: Need Pelicans To Win A Bit More (At Least For The Near Future)
« Reply #14 on: December 18, 2018, 04:47:22 PM »

Offline GreenEnvy

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I can't see any way they trade Davis this year as they absolutely want to offer him the supermax and see what he does.  If he turns that down, then they just move him in July, but there is no way they don't get to the summer.  The only caveat would be some team throws everything at them such that they just can't turn it down - like say the Lakers give them all 4 young players and take back Moore or some other bad contract (by including KCP in the trade).  I think they would be hard pressed to turn down Ingram, Kuzma, Ball, and Hart.  But I can't see the Lakers doing that so I don't think it is a realistic option.

 I doubt Pels would entertain trading without first analyzing Boston offer, which can’t be made until season’s end. That’s how a smart GM drives the price up. Plus everything equal between Boston offer and Laker offer, teams generally prefer trading outside conference. Boston could match that offer easily plus trump it with the bevy of draft picks in its arsenal. Only way I see Lakers winning this is if AD says he does not want to be traded to Boston.
Boston could not easily trump that offer.  It is arguable they couldn't even beat that depending on a team's thoughts on the various young players.  And right now, Boston doesn't have a single lottery pick next summer and if everything goes wrong could have 2 very late 1st's (its own and Philly's) plus the future unknown of Memphis and LAC (and LA could end up a 2nd rounder).

Any trade package is only as good as the best player being offered.  Celtics would feature Tatum.  What player on LA would be considered by rational GM just as good or better than Tatum?  Ingram? Ball?  Kuzma?  The draft picks are gravy, something that the Celtics have a lot more of than the Lakers.
Tatum is a better prospect then those guys, but I'm not sure he is so much better a prospect than Kuzma or Ingram to make up for the fact that there are 2 of them (thus giving the Pelicans 2 cracks at a player living up to the potential), especially with Ball and Hart thrown in.  Even with Brown (who is Boston's only other non-draft pick asset), I don't know that Boston's 2 is better than the Los Angeles 4.  Now if the Sacramento pick lands at 2 or 3, Memphis is in the back half of the top 10, LAC is 15, and Boston's pick in the late 20's, that would change things a great deal as that provides some high level draft capital, but at this point that draft capital is a huge unknown.

Yes, sure, I would assume that in addition to Tatum, Boston would have to offer Brown, maybe Smart, the 3-4 draft picks, and maybe even Williams, plus whatever salary filler would be needed. I'd like to also include Rozier but due to expiring can't make that work unless sign and trade, and even that would only count for half his salary.

I think we both agree that it is highly unlikely a trade would occur until after the season.

Tatum, Brown, Smart, Williams, and 3-4 picks?

That would probably be the largest price to pay for a player, maybe ever.

Looking at recent past trade packages for great players (KG, CP3, PG13, Harden, Howard, etc.), none seem to really come close to that. Granted they were either past their peak or not as good as AD, but it’ll be interesting if this really becomes a bidding war between two rivals and we see a package like this.

I’d say LeBron and AD would be a better twosome than KD and Curry, while AD here in Boston would make us favorites.

Unless Lakers offer is far and away better (which I don’t think it can be if we include Tatum, he’s clearly the best prospect by far), if they are remotely close I could see NOP wanting him out of the West, or just not on the Lakers.

Just like Danny loaded up for a couple years to pounce on a guy like KG when he became available, I don’t think he will be gunshy going after AD. As long as he makes it past the deadline, he will use his assets wisely.
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