Collins to Utah for Rudy Gay

[Moranis]

Grant's on/off differential per 100 possessions has been way into the negative each of the last 2 seasons in both the regular and post season.  The team is significantly better when henis on the bench.  Now obviously some of that is who he subs in for and who comes in for him, but it is bad. Of the players that played in at least 15 playoff games this year, Grant was by far worst on the team.  Only White and Brown were also negative. 

I'd sign Grant to not waste the asset (a sign and trade would be good if we actually used the tpe), but he is a 8th or 9th man type player.  I actually think he'd be at his best in a spor starter but otherwise barely plays role since he is a jack of trades master of known type player.  I prefer my main bench players to be masters at something. 

[Celtics2021]

Are you all on Grant's payroll?

Most overrated plated in team history.

There's no question he's a much better shooter than Collins.

If you had to have either Collins or Grant make one defensive stand again Giannis, or Embiid, or Butler, or Van Fleet to win the game, who would you choose? Because Grant has been there and done that. It's the reason why smart teams are after him as an RFA, and avoiding Collins even though he was readily available.

I would let them go get an open layup, because it's a foregone conclusion either way

Except it was a trick question. Grant has stopped Van Fleet on a switch out to win a playoff game.

I know what you are referring to. Occasional good defensive possessions =/= being a good defender. Especially when those occasional good plays are often followed by shocking lapses

The league and the way they value each player is going to disagree with you. Collins could have been had by any number of these cap space teams for nothing. Grant reportedly has a lot more suitors.

We shall see. The league valuing guys highly doesn't actually make them right though, you know?

It doesn't.  But NBA teams also have access to a lot more tracking data than we fans do, which is probably more helpful for evaluating players, like Grant, who don't show up in the box score the same way as others.

Grant's contributions don't show up in the box score, or in +/-, or in wins/losses, or in playoff performances.

Where do they show up?

They do show up in +/-.  You’re better than this.

His on/off stats seem to indicate that we were worse off having him get minutes: https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/4593/onoff#tab-team_efficiency

Sure, he’s not as good as the starters ahead of him.  His +/- was still very solid.  He’s a proper rotation reserve on a good team.  On a bad team, you’d probably see him with a negative +/- and positive on/off.

I’m not saying Grant is a star.  I’m saying he’s a solid reserve on a good team, or a starter on a bad team.  He’s not a deep bencher like Muscala (who some argued would play over him).  He’s better than Torrey Craig, who some say could replace him.  He wasn’t better than John Collins, and probably isn’t still, but Collins’ regression has made it closer than it was, and they may swap places before long.

[green_bballers13]

Grant's on/off differential per 100 possessions has been way into the negative each of the last 2 seasons in both the regular and post season.  The team is significantly better when henis on the bench.  Now obviously some of that is who he subs in for and who comes in for him, but it is bad. Of the players that played in at least 15 playoff games this year, Grant was by far worst on the team.  Only White and Brown were also negative. 

I'd sign Grant to not waste the asset (a sign and trade would be good if we actually used the tpe), but he is a 8th or 9th man type player.  I actually think he'd be at his best in a spor starter but otherwise barely plays role since he is a jack of trades master of known type player.  I prefer my main bench players to be masters at something.

On one hand you're saying that Grant is an asset. On the other hand, you're saying that he should ride the pine during the playoffs.

How do those two sentences fit together? Why would an NBA exec trade anything of value for a guy that shouldn't be playing for their team in big situations?

[Roy H.]

Why would an NBA exec trade anything of value for a guy that shouldn't be playing for their team in big situations?

Great question.  That's why I've got no desire to be in a position where we have to trade Grant next off-season after another stagnant year.  We'd have to attach the GSW pick to dump him.

[green_bballers13]

Why would an NBA exec trade anything of value for a guy that shouldn't be playing for their team in big situations?

Great question.  That's why I've got no desire to be in a position where we have to trade Grant next off-season after another stagnant year.  We'd have to attach the GSW pick to dump him.

I'm with you. I think Grant was a good draft pick that helped us win certain games (Game 7 vs Milwaukee) and helped us lose other games. I think the Celtics would be best to let him go in FA.

I'm not going to cry if Brad doesn't want to sign/trade him for another overpaid player and the 59th pick in the draft.

[Vermont Green]

This has been a pretty heatedly discussion about a guy who will be the 7th or 8th guy on the roster.  Is it really fair to accuse him of being overrated because some believe he would be a good player for the bench?  No one is saying he is a big 3 guy. He is a big 3 off the bench guy.

[Moranis]

Grant's on/off differential per 100 possessions has been way into the negative each of the last 2 seasons in both the regular and post season.  The team is significantly better when henis on the bench.  Now obviously some of that is who he subs in for and who comes in for him, but it is bad. Of the players that played in at least 15 playoff games this year, Grant was by far worst on the team.  Only White and Brown were also negative. 

I'd sign Grant to not waste the asset (a sign and trade would be good if we actually used the tpe), but he is a 8th or 9th man type player.  I actually think he'd be at his best in a spor starter but otherwise barely plays role since he is a jack of trades master of known type player.  I prefer my main bench players to be masters at something.

On one hand you're saying that Grant is an asset. On the other hand, you're saying that he should ride the pine during the playoffs.

How do those two sentences fit together? Why would an NBA exec trade anything of value for a guy that shouldn't be playing for their team in big situations?

he is a bench player.. most bench players should be riding the pine, thst is why they are bench players.

[Who]

I see Grant more as a good defender than a great defender. And more of a man defender than a team defender. Short and slow for team defense. Doesn't cover enough ground. Good physical man defender but struggles more with quickness.

Still, a good solid two way player. A net positive on both ends of the floor.

[Csfan1984]

DA should try to cash in on LM now. Try to build up Collin's value (rinse and repeat).

[Who]

It is really hard to even put this into perspective.  He is signed for $25M-$26M for 3 more seasons.  It was not that long ago where he put up back to back seasons with about 20/10 and has two seasons over 39%  from 3.  What the heck happened?

I can't help but compare Collins to Grant.  If Collins is a throw away contract at $25M, where does that put Grant? Is Collins even better than Grant at this point?   If Collins is not worth $25M, what is his market value, how many wins is he worth?  He played decent in the playoffs against us.  He wasn't great but played like he belonged on the court.  It's not like he was horrible, just kind of unimpactful.

Seriously?

I'm not sure that's a crazy question.

I am. Here are their stats for the last two seasons:

It's not really about that. The reason why Collins had no suitors is because he doesn't bring any high-level skills, other than being a dunker/finisher. He's not a good defender. He's not a good distributor/screener. He's not a good shooter.

Grant brings high-level defense with solid versatility, as well as high-level shooting. He's arguably a more valuable player even if you ignore their contracts.

I rate John Collins around middle of the pack among starting PFs. In the perfect situation, he is a borderline top 10 PF. Just inside the top 10 or just outside the top 10. Not many teams can offer such a situation though. So most places he is middle of the pack.

If his hand has permanently screwed up his outside shooting, he may be slightly below average as a starting PF.

If I were to rank Grant among starting PFs, I expect he would be around 20-23rd. Somewhere around there. That ball park. Firmly below average but solid starter. I like his two-way game. That lifts him over some other guys in my eyes. Some that are one players either offense or defense. Some that are smaller and lack the physicality to deal with top PFs one-on-one.

So I'd favour John Collins ahead of Grant but not necessarily by much. Maybe by a lot if I can get John Collins in a perfect situation (interior big rather than floor spacer) but only slightly if not.


Edit: I was surprised. I have John Collins around 20th in my last rankings. I thought he would be higher but the PF position has improved in recent times.

H Barnes, Horford, Jalen Williams, E Mobley, Jerami Grant the guys directly ahead of him. Then Kuzma and PJ Tucker after John Collins.

Then I have some mix of Ben Simmons, the rookie Jarace Grant, and DeAndre Hunter (he is my new Hawks PF for now). I'd take Grant over D Hunter and over the rookie (inexperienced). Hard to know with Ben Simmons what you are going to get. Not sure whether that is an argument for Grant or against him. Anyway, fair argument Grant Williams to be ranked after Kuzma and Tucker 3 spots behind J Collins. Closer than I expected.

The bottom 5 PFs (starters) in my rankings were Vanderbilt, Reggie Bullock (too small), I Stewart, Sochan and last year's rookie Jabari Smith. I definitely take Grant over all of them (in terms of winning right here, right now).

[Moranis]

I'd take Smith over Grant for next year without giving it a second thought.  As a 19 year old rookie he averaged essentially 13/8.  Most big guys like him, take a huge leap from rookie to 2nd year.  I'd expect a lot more efficiency from him, which will improve the counting stats a lot.