Pick a Player Over/Under Points Game

[misha]

I want to move to Israel   Oh, well, once the playoffs start, there's no advantage in getting the pick in early.

You should, Israel is great this time of year
There's only a hour difference between us and Denmark, though, and you do pick early most of the time.

[ACF]

I want to move to Israel   Oh, well, once the playoffs start, there's no advantage in getting the pick in early.

You should, Israel is great this time of year
There's only a hour difference between us and Denmark, though, and you do pick early most of the time.

I know. 6 am-ish CET is where I have the most time to pick.

It's just that I saw a distinct correlation between early picks and wins. Such is the nature of the game, I guess.

[misha]

Sure, it's an advantage to pick early but it doesn't assure you a thing if you don't pick wisely. You could see in the standings that some guys that pick later (like Rebus for example) have a much better average than some guys who pick early (like you for example).

[Bahku]

I want to move to Israel  Oh, well, once the playoffs start, there's no advantage in getting the pick in early.

You should, Israel is great this time of year
There's only a hour difference between us and Denmark, though, and you do pick early most of the time.

I know. 6 am-ish CET is where I have the most time to pick.

It's just that I saw a distinct correlation between early picks and wins. Such is the nature of the game, I guess.

I don't think that's a consistent thing ... there are many "hot" picks to choose from every night, and just because you get your pick in first, doesn't mean that player is going to have a good game, (in fact, it's often the opposite).

Plus, the Void List rule insures that even a "hot" pick can only be used once every seven days.

There have been many times when I burned myself by picking early, because the next days injury lists aren't posted until late that day, so you're going on information that's a day old.

I think it has more to do with just keeping your eyes open, and those of us who scour all the box scores each day to come up with the results, (and it's many of us), do have a bit of an advantage over those who may not do so, because we can see first-hand who the hot players are, and how injuries affect the line-ups.

Many of the wins I've had this year were no-name guys who were flying under the radar, and who had not been used by anyone before ... yeah, it's great to make those little discoveries, but you can still only use that player once, then he's common fare for those who want to take the same risk on a schlub pick, (and agains, it doesn't mean he'll play well that night).

I think Redz saw that an advantage might be had by pick order, and successfully kept that impact to a minimum by the Void List rule.

Despite all these factors, it still comes down to what player has a good night and who doesn't, though, and that's still just plain ol' luck.

Rebus is very often one of the last picks of the day, yet he still has one of the best records this year, because the "hot" picks are just plain "not" hot every night.

Like everything, though, I guess it's all in your viewpoint, and as I'm very often the first one who picks, it would make sense that I would defend it, and by doing so, I guess I'm validating your point.

Things always change.

[StartOrien]

Bahku - Goran Dragic, Houston Rockets: 11.5
Misha - Jose Juan Barea, Minnesota Timberwolves: 10.9
ACF - Brandon Knight, Detroit Pistons: 13.0
33-00-32 - Drew Gooden, Milwaukee Bucks: 13.8
slamtheking - Joakim Noah, Chigago bulls: 10.0
GreenFaith1819 - Jerome Dyson, New Orleans Hornets: 8.0
alajet - Monta Ellis, Milwaukee Bucks: 20.7
StartOrien - Anthony Randolph, Minnesota Timberwolves, 6.9

[ACF]

Sure, it's an advantage to pick early but it doesn't assure you a thing if you don't pick wisely. You could see in the standings that some guys that pick later (like Rebus for example) have a much better average than some guys who pick early (like you for example).

That's because Canada > Denmark  

On a serious note, I guess both you and B are right. If I had more time, though, I'd love to see how many "first" picks lead to a win. Oh, well. Just a peeve of mine. Nevermind. Kind of silly, I guess.

[thirstyboots18]

I know. 6 am-ish CET is where I have the most time to pick.

It's just that I saw a distinct correlation between early picks and wins. Such is the nature of the game, I guess.
[/quote]Unless you are saying that you would have picked the same player that had already been picked, and who ended up winning, I see no correlation.  The op might have picked a player who was even better...you don't know.  IMO Luck first, and then Knowledge have more to do with results than timing, in this game.  If you don't feel that way, be sure to make your picks in  a timely manner, and make your own advantage.

 
BTW, those of us on the east coast of the U. S. have be up and on the computer at midnight to get an early pick. Doesn't seem like an advantage to me.

[ACF]

I think it has more to do with just keeping your eyes open, and those of us who scour all the box scores each day to come up with the results, (and it's many of us), do have a bit of an advantage over those who may not do so, because we can see first-hand who the hot players are, and how injuries affect the line-ups.

Many of the wins I've had this year were no-name guys who were flying under the radar, and who had not been used by anyone before ... yeah, it's great to make those little discoveries, but you can still only use that player once, then he's common fare for those who want to take the same risk on a schlub pick, (and agains, it doesn't mean he'll play well that night).

Well, B, I scour the box scores too. It's just that sometimes I don't have time for it and so if there's an early pick, I kind of feel pressured into picking someone before the "good" picks are gone. I feel I've used a lot of different players, too. If you go back and check, you'll see.

Anyways, just a little peeve and it doesn't really matter (since I'll probably be swept in the playoffs  )

[ACF]

I know. 6 am-ish CET is where I have the most time to pick.

It's just that I saw a distinct correlation between early picks and wins. Such is the nature of the game, I guess.

Unless you are saying that you would have picked the same player that had already been picked, and who ended up winning, I see no correlation.  The op might have picked a player who was even better...you don't know.  IMO Luck first, and then Knowledge have more to do with results than timing, in this game.  If you don't feel that way, be sure to make your picks in  a timely manner, and make your own advantage.

 
BTW, those of us on the east coast of the U. S. have be up and on the computer at midnight to get an early pick. Doesn't seem like an advantage to me.

[ACF]

Hey, don't edit out my reply. I know I'm being a royal pain but what happened to the first and all? 

[ACF]

Just went back around 20 pages and checked the recent winners:

It does seem like there is correlation between picking first and winning (or gettting a really good result). Most of the last winners have picked in the first four or top five. Most people picked Lester Hudson, including myself (but only thanks to the Void List, I think.) Picking early is an advantage.

[thirstyboots18]

Just went back around 20 pages and checked the recent winners:

It does seem like there is correlation between picking first and winning (or gettting a really good result). Most of the last winners have picked in the first four or top five. Most people picked Lester Hudson, including myself (but only thanks to the Void List, I think.) Picking early is an advantage.


[img width=500  height=390]http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-vUQnvqx6fHg/T2oxRThdvKI/AAAAAAAAeBA/HacwB6__8y4/s1600/forrest_gump_all_i_have_to_say.png[/img]

I am not editing anything this time, and I don't think you are a pain.  How about a change in the rules...our favorite player, ACF, picks first....then everyone else can fight among themselves for position.  Ultimately, we reserve the option of declaring Everyone a winner.  This is the new order in sports and in games and removes the stigma of "advantage"  .

[ACF]

You know what, let me just drop out of this game. It's supposed to be fun but it's not too much fun at the moment. So, better to just step away. If I make the playoffs, just give my spot to the next on the list.

[ACF]

APRIL 19, 2012


Bahku - Goran Dragic, Houston Rockets: 11.5
Misha - Jose Juan Barea, Minnesota Timberwolves: 10.9
33-00-32 - Drew Gooden, Milwaukee Bucks: 13.8
slamtheking - Joakim Noah, Chigago Bulls: 10.0
GreenFaith1819 - Jerome Dyson, New Orleans Hornets: 8.0
alajet - Monta Ellis, Milwaukee Bucks: 20.7
StartOrien - Anthony Randolph, Minnesota Timberwolves, 6.9

[Bahku]

The only solution I can come up with is alternating first picks, (like the void list rotation), and after someone picks first, they go to the botom of the list the next day, and the order keeps rotating likewise, etc., but then there would have to be a uniform time for a deadline.

Either that or keep changing the time when picks can be started, rotating an hour each day or something. No matter what, I'm not picking first anymore ... I'm not trying to be difficult, I just want this game to be as fair as possible, and no advantages to any one player, real or imagined.

This is supposed to be fun, plain and simple, and to this point we've kept it relatively free of drama, (other than a couple of instances) ... I have always tried to keep it that way, and added things that I though might improve it, so in that spirit I will give someone else the chance to pick first from now on.

I'll make mine late the next day, when the injury lists are up-to-date, and when the list is full. I hope that helps the perception of any advantages.