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Where Does Steph Curry Rank Among Guards?
Who:
I was thinking about the Golden State loss to Sacramento in the play-in the other night, just where does Steph rank today among his competitors at the guard position?
He has clearly declined. I wrote a little about what I saw. I'll re-post that comment in the first comment below.
So I see Steph's main competitors as:
PGs - Jalen Brunson, Tyrese Haliburton, De'Aaron Fox
SGs - SGA, Anthony Edwards, Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell
Others
PGs - Trae Young, Kyrie Irving, Jamal Murray, Damian Lillard, Tyrese Maxey, Darius Garland, Ja Morant
SGs - James Harden, Desmond Bane, LaMelo Ball
So I would put at least 5 if not all 7 of those main competitors ahead of Steph at this point. I don't think any of the others measure up.
I did not include Luka Doncic as a guard. Your choice if you want to include him or not.
I feel like SGA & Anthony Edwards are certainly ahead of Steph. Just bigger and more dynamic. I am inclined to lean the same way with Devin Booker despite viewing him on a similar level as Steph but preferring Booker's superior size and versatility.
I do like Haliburton over Steph. I thought earlier on in the same that Haliburton had replaced Steph as the best PG in the league. Haliburton trailed off a bit since then. Still, I'd give him the nod. I love Haliburton's passing. I also wonder about Jalen Brunson. He has had such a dominant season. I have a tough time putting Steph ahead of him. Then there is Donovan Mitchell. A better one-on-one creator vs Steph the better off-ball creator. I am leaning Mitchell.
I was surprised watching that Kings game and not feeling like Steph was an advantage over D Fox. Now Steph had a bad game but I liked Fox to play him tough regardless. I feel those two are very close in ability now. Fox has improved considerably while Steph has declined.
So not only do I no longer see Steph as the best guard in the league, I do not see him as the 2nd or 3rd best either. Not even a top 5 guard in the league. Somewhere around 7th or 8th. A top 10 guard. If you include Luka Doncic as a guard, 8th or 9th among guards.
Who:
--- Quote from: Who on April 17, 2024, 01:16:35 PM ---I was looking at Steph's stats last night when I saw he had just turned 36 years old. Another key indicator of that physical decline was apparent in his stat line.
Steph once led the league in steals. He had multiple seasons among the league leaders (3 yrs top 5 in steals) and was regularly in the top 20 (7 years) for his first 9 seasons. Since then his steals, have yo-yoed between 1.0 to 1.3spg. It went down to 0.9spg last year and down to 0.7spg this year.
He is not making the hustle plays he used to make.
His rebounding is the lowest in about 6-7 years despite GSW playing terrible rebounding lineups where Steph is asked to contribute more.
He is largely a non-entity on defense. What I mean is he is sound positionally and in the right place but not able to make those extra effort plays anymore. He can only guard smaller spaces. He is older. Doesn't move as well. And as a 6-2 guard, those deflections and steals helped him be more useful on defense and make up for his lack of size. Now he doesn't have that anymore.
People focus on his improved strength and one-on-ones but I think his active team defense was more valuable to the Warriors in the past than this.
It has made Steph even more of an offense-only player. I always thought he didn't get enough credit for his defense & rebounding. Not that he was a high end one but he was a lot scrappier than he got credit for. He is not that anymore. He is more reliant than ever on his scoring.
He is used less as a ball-handler and passer than ever which makes his offense even more reliant on scoring. More one dimensional than ever before. And he has always been a streaky offensive player because so much of his offense is generated from long distance shooting which is the most variable type of offense.
--- End quote ---
ozgod:
Here's the regular season on/off for all point and combo guards in the NBA, as tracked by Cleaning the Glass. Here are the filters I used (I picked 1500 minutes as the cutoff, which works out to be about 19mpg over an 82 game season):
Here are the actual on-off differentials. The percentile is where the player ranked amongst his peers in the point and combo guard set, along with his efficiency (points per possession) and four factors (eFG%, TOV %, ORB % and FT Rate, both offensively and defensively). Steph is in the first table, just behind Jaden Ivey and ahead of Anthony Edwards.
Note this is sorted by On/Off metrics, not anything else. "The rows show the difference in how the team performed with the player on vs. off the court for each of these stats.
The orange/blue numbers show the player's percentile rank in that stat relative to all players."
(click to enlarge)
(click to enlarge)
The link to the table is https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/players?stat_category=onoff_efficiency but you need a subscription to access and manipulate it.
So Steph is in the 75th percentile which is pretty decent for someone pushing 36. For Steph fans this will doubtless be labelled, lies, [dang] lies and statistics…for me he’s still probebly the first point guard name for a team, but I’m sentimental :laugh:
Vermont Green:
This is a tough question. I see Curry as a PG/combo guard. Or a little guard. It is hard to compare him to big guards. And that isn't about how tall a guard is or how long his arms are, that is part of it, but it is about how they play. He is a primary scorer, so not exactly a PG, but not a SG/Wing type either.
My list of positionally comparable top guards, in no particular order, are:
Brunson
Lillard
Mitchell
Fox
Maxey
Young
Irving
Morant
Ball
Cunningham
McCollum
Beal
There are probably some others, there are no set rules for this. Of this group, Curry is still a top guy. Brunson probably had a better year than him. Mitchell and Lillard have traditionally been right there at the top of this list. If you expand the list into bigger guards, guards that play more like wings, you get a longer list and Curry moves down the list. It is hard to compare Curry to say Anthony Edwards. But I have him right at the top of the "small guard" list.
I don't know how to put an exact number on it. His shooting is still extraterrestrial. As is his handle and competitiveness. The Warriors aren't that good anymore as a team but I have Curry still right there with Brunson, Mitchell, Lillard, whoever you want. These guards are the team's primary ball handler as well as a primary scorer. That to me is what separates the small guards or combo guards from the wing guards. Inexact, I know.
Moranis:
If I had to win 1 game, I'd still have Steph at 1 over everyone else that plays guard (excepting Luka). Even ahead of SGA. I think he still has the highest peak level. He is older obviously so over a full season he'd be behind SGA and probably a few others, but for a game or even a series, I'd still pick Curry (very similar to Lebron actually).
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