I say my most important guy is Amare. If he commits himself defensively and really buys into a team concept, this team has the potential to be unstoppable. He's already the best offensive big man in the NBA, and he has the potential to be better. If he fulfills his potential this season, Portland *will* win the championship, there's not a doubt in my mind. In terms of talent, there's no way this kid should have been available to me at #9. He just needs to up his commitment on D (which will be helped by sliding over to the 4) and focus entirely on basketball. There's little doubt in my mind that Coach Dale will get through to him.
So Roy is already aware of my skepticism, leaving that aside, the above style of argument is a league-wide trend that I'd love to head off. In as abstract an exercise as this, it's best - in my opinion - if GMs keep to a minimum their efforts to change a leopard's spots. I don't want to head off all debate, certainly there will be players in '08-'09 season who will out perform expectations (and each GM rightly believes those are his guys.) But more than likely Milicic will be impressive only in fits and starts; Durant won't begin scoring on the block next season; and Amare, despite having all the physical tools, will remain a woefully uninspired defender. (For example, he didn't look any better defending power forwards next to O'Neal than he did defending centers next to Marion, who is anyway, a far, far, better defender than either Shaq or Al Horford.)
From my perspective, regardless of whether Amare individually improves -- and I *do* think players can improve their defense -- the team scheme in Portland is a lot better than it was in Phoenix. Also, Amare makes up for any lack of defense by being extremely, extremely effective on offense.
I'm not counting on Amare to become a defensive stopper. If he did make that transition, though, I really think it would elevate this team to an unmatched level. Even assuming poor defense from him, though, Portland is going to be the co-favorite, along with a handful of other squads.