Author Topic: 2020 Historical Draft: ECF...#1 Boston vs #2 Milwaukee  (Read 15714 times)

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2020 Historical Draft: ECF...#1 Boston vs #2 Milwaukee
« on: April 06, 2020, 06:51:07 AM »

Offline nickagneta

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BOSTON - Who
Kevin Durant (2016-17)
Steve Nash (2006-07)
Pau Gasol (2009-10)
Marc Gasol (2012-13)
Rasheed Wallace (2002-03)
Danny Granger (2008-09)
Allan Houston (1999-2000)
John Stockton (1999-2000)
Nene Hilario (2010-11)
Richard Jefferson (2005-06)
Goran Dragic (2013-14)
Jason Richardson (2007-08)
Jaren Jackson Jr. (2019-20)
Latrell Sprewell (1999-2000)

VS

MILWAUKEE - Roy H.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (2019-20)
Karl Malone (1999-00)
Alonzo Mourning (1999-00)
Mano Ginobili  (2007-08)
Derrick Rose  (2010-11)
Jayson Tatum  (2019-20)
Mike Conley  (2016-17)
Serge Ibaka (2013-14)
J.J. Redick  (2015-16)
Andrew Bogut  (2009-10)
Caron Butler (2007-08)
Brad Miller  (2003-04)
Eric Gordon  (2017-18)
Terrell Brandon  (1999-00)
« Last Edit: April 07, 2020, 12:13:29 PM by nickagneta »

Re: 2020 Historical Draft: ECF...#1 Boston vs #2 Milwaukee
« Reply #1 on: April 07, 2020, 12:15:00 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Thread is now open.

Who and Roy may post some information about their team and anything they want to talk about regarding the matchup

Re: 2020 Historical Draft: ECF...#1 Boston vs #2 Milwaukee
« Reply #2 on: April 07, 2020, 12:20:58 PM »

Online Roy H.

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Sounds like it took a J.J. Redick three pointer at the buzzer in game 82 to get me here.  Thank you to all who voted, and Congrats to wdleehi on building an extraordinarily strong team that barely missed.


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Re: 2020 Historical Draft: ECF...#1 Boston vs #2 Milwaukee
« Reply #3 on: April 07, 2020, 12:37:57 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Votes will need to be PMed to me by 6:00PM EDT tomorrow, Wednesday April 8.

Remember the ballot should simply be your selection to win and the best of 7 series outcome.

IE... Knicks 4-2

Re: 2020 Historical Draft: ECF...#1 Boston vs #2 Milwaukee
« Reply #4 on: April 07, 2020, 01:40:12 PM »

Offline KGs Knee

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This is a really interesting matchup between two very different styles of play. Should be epic.

Re: 2020 Historical Draft: ECF...#1 Boston vs #2 Milwaukee
« Reply #5 on: April 07, 2020, 03:07:47 PM »

Online Roy H.

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Some initial thoughts from Milwaukee...

There's a ton of mutual respect in this series, I think.  I voted Boston first in the conference (excluding my team), and Who did the same regarding the Bucks.  This wouldn't be a short series for either team.

Here's a handful of reasons why I think Milwaukee would win:

1.  Purely offensive teams generally don't win titles

I think it's fair to say that Boston has a great offense, and a pretty poor defense.  I'd rank them as the best offense in the HBL (Historic Basketball League), and probably in the bottom 25% defensively.  Do teams like that win?

Here's the offensive and defensive rank for every team going back to 2000:

2019: 5th Off; 5th Def
2018: 3rd Off; 11th Def
2017: 1st Off; 2nd Def
2016: 8th Off; 4th Def
2015: 2nd Off; 1st Def
2014: 7th Off; 3rd Def
2013: 2nd Off; 9th Def
2012: 8th Off; 4th Def
2011: 8th Off; 8th Def
2010: 11th Off; 4th Def
2009: 3rd Off; 6th Def
2008: 10th Off; 1st Def
2007: 5th Off; 2nd Def
2006: 7th Off; 9th Def
2005: 8th Off; 1st Def
2004: 18th Off; 2nd Def
2003: 7th Off; 3rd Def
2002: 2nd Off; 7th Def
2001: 2nd Off; 21st Def
2000: 5th Off; 1st Def

To me, that's wild.  Only once in the past 20 seasons has the best offense in the NBA won the title, and that team had the 2nd best defense in the NBA.  In 19 out of 20 seasons, a team's defense had to be well above league average to win a championship.

What's most striking is that most title teams excel on both offense and defense, but if one trait is dominant, it's defense.  14 out of 20 championship teams were top-6 (meaning, top-20%) in defense.  By comparison, less than half of championship teams had a top-20% (top-6) offense.

I think the best example of this is by looking at perhaps the closest NBA equivalent of Who's team:  the mid-2000s Suns.  Here's how the Suns ranked in terms of Offense, Defense, Regular Season finish, and Playoffs finish:

2005 (Nash MVP):  1st Off; 17th Def; 62-20 (1st in NBA); Lost Conf Finals (4-1)
2006 (Nash MVP):  2nd Off; 16th Def; 54-28 (4th in NBA); Lost Conf Finals (4-2)
2007:  1st Off; 13th Def; 61-21 (2nd in NBA); Lost in Second Round (4-2)
2008:  2nd Off; 16th Def; 55-27 (6th in NBA); Lost in First Round (4-1)

Three out of those four times, the team the Suns lost to was the Spurs, a slower, more physical team.  In none of those seasons did the Suns match their regular season finish.  In every one of those series, the Suns lost despite home court advantage.  Why?  Because very good defense beats elite offense almost every time.

Where do the Bucks fit?  I think we show great balance.  I think due to our efficiency and scoring options, we'd rank in the top-25% of the HBL.  Defensively, we're equally as good if not better.  We've got a DPOY and a runner-up DPOY up front, alongside two other All-Defense members.  The "weak link" is four-time champion Manu Ginobili, an excellent defender who happened to be on all three of those Spurs teams that beat Nash in his prime.

2.  Giannis Outplays Durant

I've said several times, I have Peak Giannis and Peak Durant about even, with Giannis being slightly better in my mind.  However, head-to-head matchups matter, so long as they're in context.  Unfortunately, due to injury, we couldn't see Durant matchup against absolutely Peak Giannis.  However, over the past two years, we have seen the two super-wings match up against each other.  Quite frankly, I was shocked by the results.

March 2018:  Milwaukee (W) at GS (L)

Giannis:  32 points, 14-for-18 shooting (77.8%), 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, 0 blocks, 1 turnover
Durant:  10 points, 4-for-10 shooting (40%), 3 rebounds, 6 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks, 4 turnovers

November 2018:  Milwaukee (W) at GS (L)

Giannis: 24 points, 7-for-16 shooting (43.8%), 9 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks, 0 turnovers
Durant: 17 points, 6-for-15 shooting (40%), 5 rebounds, 9 assists, 0 steals, 1 block, 6 turnovers

March 2018:  Milwaukee (L) vs. GS (W)

Giannis:  22 points, 8-for-13 shooting (61.5%), 15 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks, 4 turnovers
Durant:  11 points, 3-for-14 shooting (21.4%), 8 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 steal, 0 blocks, 7 turnovers

In each game, Giannis outscored Durant, outshot him, and forced significantly more turnovers.  In two of those games, both on the road, Milwaukee won.

Those outcomes fit the overall narrative of these two:  both are elite scorers, both are extraordinarily efficient, but there's a very large gap in defense.  Giannis has been, at worst, the second best defender in the NBA in 2020.  Durant, even in his peak seasons, has been a net-negative on defense. 

Over the past three years (since the 2017-18 season), Giannis has led the entire NBA in "both "Real Adjusted Plus Minus" and "Real Adjusted Defensive Plus Minus".  Durant, meanwhile, has been excellent offensively (second overall), but horrific defensively (599th in the NBA over that time span, out of 777 measured players!)  To put it in perspective:  Durant's defense measures at about the exact same level as Michael Beasley or Ramon Sessions in their final seasons.

But wait, there's more!  What about opponent's eFG% over the past three seasons?  Giannis is 2nd.  Durant?  164th. What about DRAPM over the past 5 seasons?  Durant ranks 521st.  We're talking about elite vs. quite bad.

 


To be continued...

« Last Edit: April 07, 2020, 04:58:37 PM by Roy H. »


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Re: 2020 Historical Draft: ECF...#1 Boston vs #2 Milwaukee
« Reply #6 on: April 07, 2020, 04:44:28 PM »

Offline Yoki_IsTheName

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OH! Heavyweight fight!
2019 CStrong Historical Draft 2000s OKC Thunder.
PG: Jrue Holiday / Isaiah Thomas / Larry Hughes
SG: Paul George / Aaron McKie / Bradley Beal
SF: Paul Pierce / Tayshaun Prince / Brian Scalabrine
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge / Shareef Abdur-Raheem / Ben Simmons
C: Jermaine O'neal / Ben Wallace

Re: 2020 Historical Draft: ECF...#1 Boston vs #2 Milwaukee
« Reply #7 on: April 07, 2020, 05:29:59 PM »

Online Roy H.

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... continued from above.

3.  Our starters outside of Giannis vs. Durant also have the advantage

I think there's a tendency in these drafts to sometimes think that whoever has the top player, or perhaps two players, will win.  That's good news generally for me, because Giannis has outplayed Durant.  However, I'm not sure that it's an accurate take.  Teams win based upon how well their teams play.  Sometimes, it's a team's superstar taking over, like Kawhi Leonard in Toronto.  Other times, it's a role player stepping up, like Andre Iguodala forcing his way into the starting lineup.

So, among the "secondary players", how do the matchups look? 

Starting bigs:  Alonzo Mourning / Karl Malone vs. Marc Gasol / Pau Gasol

Pau Gasol was a binkie of mine until he was traded to the Lakers.  He was the guy I wanted the Celtics to trade for before they got KG.  Pau was a reliable All-Star who could put up 18 / 10 without much of a problem.  But, let's be clear:  he didn't impact the game on both ends.  His defense ranged from bad to decent, but it certainly was never good.  He wasn't particularly mobile, which is why he primarily played at center during most of his career (and certainly in 2010, when 62% of his minutes were at center).  He was slow laterally, struggling against the pick-and-roll. 

I know that almost all of we Celtics fans have blocked out the 2010 Finals.  I consistently hear "Pau was the real MVP of that series".  Two things on that:  first, the refs were the MVP of that series.  Second, Pau was nothing special.  He had five straight games of shooting below 50% in the Finals, shooting 28-for-66 (42%) .  Until Perk got injured, Pau was -15 in the first five games, only finishing in positive territory in Game 1.  He rebounded well, but offensively and defensively, he was below average.

Pau isn't matched up against a slow opposing center here.  Instead, he's playing the best pure power forward of all-time, one season removed from winning the NBA MVP.  Karl Malone was still in his prime in 2000, playing at an All-NBA and All-Defense level while leading Utah to the best record in the West.  Despite Pau having a size advantage, Malone was much quicker and more athletic.  Pau was a slow 250 pounds.  Karl Malone was a 250 pound freight train who averaged 25.5 points / 9.5 rebounds / 3.7 assists.

At the other big spot, we have Marc Gasol vs. Alonzo Mourning.  Both guys won DPOY in the selected years, but I think that's where the similarities end.  Marc missed the All-Star game, and strangely wasn't voted All-Defense First Team.  Alonzo won his second DPOY, and finished third in MVP voting.  He dominated on both ends, averaging 20+ points and 3.7 blocks.  He was a lot more mobile than Marc, and was a much more impressive scorer and shooter.

I don't think there's any real argument that Milwaukee has better starters up front.  They were better offensive players, and better defensively.  They also probably fit together better as a pairing.  That's without even considering that Giannis can play PF at an All-NBA level.

Starting guards:  Manu Ginobili / Mike Conley vs. Allan Houston / Steve Nash

I imagine some of you are asking yourselves how I'm going to convince you that Mike Conley is better than Steve Nash.  Well, I won't go there, but I will argue that the gap probably isn't nearly as big as you're thinking.

So, let's give Steve Nash -- particularly, 2007 Steve Nash -- his due.  He averaged 18.6 points, 11.8 assists, .654 TS% and led the league's #1 offense to 113.9 points per 100 possessions.  The guy could run an offense, and put up sexy shooting and passing numbers.

On the other end, we have Mike Conley, who doesn't get the blood flowing nearly as much as Steve Nash.  Mike Conley will probably never get a single Hall of Fame vote, and in the 2050 Historic Draft, only the real nerds will even recall him. 

But here's a surprisingly little known fact:  Mike Conley might not be a Hall of Fame player, but he had one hell of a season in 2017.  20.5 points, 6.3 assists, 40.8% 3PT%, .604 TS%.  In the playoffs, he exploded even further:  24.7 points, .620 eFG%.  The kicker?  Conley's Off Rtg was 121 points per 100 possessions, only slightly behind Nash's 124 per 100. 

Are you a believer in Boxscore Plus Minus?  BPM tells us that Mike Conley was a better player than Steve Nash in their respective years.  VORP has them almost tied.  WS/48 has a slight advantage for Nash.  And in the playoffs, Conley had pronounced advantages.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Steve+Nash&player_id1_select=Steve+Nash&y1=2007&player_id1=nashst01&idx=players&player_id2_hint=Mike+Conley&player_id2_select=Mike+Conley&y2=2017&player_id2=conlemi01&idx=players
 
Are those advanced stats accurate?  I have no idea.  I don't really rely on them much.  What I do know is that Conley was bigger, stronger, faster and more athletic than Nash.  He got to the hoop more, and was a bigger weapon as a scorer.  He was a much, much better defender.  There's no doubt that he'd limit Nash.  And, I'm not much of a believer in ball-dominant point guards.  I really think that a team needs at least two primary ball-handlers to properly attack a modern defense.  One guy who holds the ball for long periods of time just makes it easier for defenses to adjust.  And, while the "7 seconds or less" offense was innovative at one time, I think it becomes less effective in a league full of super-players who can get back in transition. 

And, the kicker is, Conley isn't even the best PG on our roster.

I think Ginobili vs. Houston probably speaks for itself, but if it doesn't:  Ginobili leads in points (about 20% per possession), assists (more than double per possession), steals (more than double per possession), rebounds (almost double per possession), FTAs (almost double per possession), eFG%, and TS%.  And he was a much better defender.  Ginobili had a net differential of +16.0 when comparing ORtg to DRtg; Houston was 3.0.  Ginobili is the advanced stats darling (big leads in WS, RPM, BPM, VORP, PER), and of course he ended up with four rings.

4.  As an aside, is Boston's offense really going to run as well as we're giving it credit for?

From 2005 until 2008, Phoenix ranked 1st, 1st, 3rd and 4th in pace.  The bigs on those teams?  Very quick, athletic big men in Shaun Marion and Amare Stoudamire.  Wings and guards included guys like Joe Johnson and Leandro Barbosa.

Here, the big men are being replaced by Pau and Marc Gasol, two slow-footed bigs.  Allan Houston, Danny Granger and Allan Houston were never particularly fast-paced players, either.  Nash is confined to a mid-paced, half-court offense.  I'm not sure that that maximizes his talents.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2020, 06:22:45 PM by Roy H. »


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Re: 2020 Historical Draft: ECF...#1 Boston vs #2 Milwaukee
« Reply #8 on: April 07, 2020, 06:01:45 PM »

Offline bdm860

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1.  Purely offensive teams generally don't win titles
I think it's fair to say that Boston has a great offense, and a pretty poor defense.  I'd rank them as the best offense in the HBL (Historic Basketball League), and probably in the bottom 25% defensively.  Do teams like that win?

How often is a team anchored by a DPOY not a good defensive team?  Who are the bad defenders on Boston besides Nash?  I see several players I consider above average defenders in addition to their DPOY.

I think it's a false narrative that Boston will be a bad defensive team.  Obviously Nash is a weakness, but you can have a terrible defender at PG and still be a good defensive team like Boston in '16 (#4) with Isaiah.

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Re: 2020 Historical Draft: ECF...#1 Boston vs #2 Milwaukee
« Reply #9 on: April 07, 2020, 06:06:40 PM »

Online Roy H.

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1.  Purely offensive teams generally don't win titles
I think it's fair to say that Boston has a great offense, and a pretty poor defense.  I'd rank them as the best offense in the HBL (Historic Basketball League), and probably in the bottom 25% defensively.  Do teams like that win?

How often is a team anchored by a DPOY not a good defensive team?  Who are the bad defenders on Boston besides Nash?  I see several players I consider above average defenders in addition to their DPOY.

I think it's a false narrative that Boston will be a bad defensive team.  Obviously Nash is a weakness, but you can have a terrible defender at PG and still be a good defensive team like Boston in '16 (#4) with Isaiah.

Pau was pretty poor, Durant isn't very good (see above, he's been pretty terrible), Houston isn't very good (net negative NetRtg).  Even Marc Gasol is slow-footed.  Nene, Richardson, Stockton at age 38...  none were even average, and that was against a real league.  In this league Boston is in the bottom quadrant in terms of team defenses.

Marc Gasol won DPOY because he was surrounded by Tony Allen, Mike Conley, Tayshaun Prince, and a ton of other good defenders.  It's probably fair to say that Gasol wouldn't sniff DPOY in this league.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2020, 06:15:36 PM by Roy H. »


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Re: 2020 Historical Draft: ECF...#1 Boston vs #2 Milwaukee
« Reply #10 on: April 07, 2020, 06:28:56 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Who didn't seem to excited about the playoff format extension so not sure if he will be responding to anything.

I hope he does give his opinions but it would not surprise me if he didn't.

Re: 2020 Historical Draft: ECF...#1 Boston vs #2 Milwaukee
« Reply #11 on: April 07, 2020, 06:29:24 PM »

Offline RodyTur10

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I wasn't high on Boston like the majority mainly because of defensive issues, however I go in these match-ups with an open mind and a good gameplan and strategy can certainly change the outcome of a pure talent based evaluation. Wish I could have played the playoffs, would be tons of fun to talk about on how to utilize your team.

Re: 2020 Historical Draft: ECF...#1 Boston vs #2 Milwaukee
« Reply #12 on: April 07, 2020, 06:35:13 PM »

Online Roy H.

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Who didn't seem to excited about the playoff format extension so not sure if he will be responding to anything.

I hope he does give his opinions but it would not surprise me if he didn't.

I hope he does, too.  Who is one of the more articulate, knowledgeable, passionate guys on the blog.


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Re: 2020 Historical Draft: ECF...#1 Boston vs #2 Milwaukee
« Reply #13 on: April 07, 2020, 07:07:39 PM »

Offline bdm860

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1.  Purely offensive teams generally don't win titles
I think it's fair to say that Boston has a great offense, and a pretty poor defense.  I'd rank them as the best offense in the HBL (Historic Basketball League), and probably in the bottom 25% defensively.  Do teams like that win?

How often is a team anchored by a DPOY not a good defensive team?  Who are the bad defenders on Boston besides Nash?  I see several players I consider above average defenders in addition to their DPOY.

I think it's a false narrative that Boston will be a bad defensive team.  Obviously Nash is a weakness, but you can have a terrible defender at PG and still be a good defensive team like Boston in '16 (#4) with Isaiah.

Pau was pretty poor, Durant isn't very good, Houston isn't very good.  Even Marc Gasol is slow-footed.  In this league Boston is in the bottom quadrant in terms of team defenses.

Well I guess it's going to be a huge difference of opinion.  Durant and Pau are good defenders (at least above average).  Both of those players got All-D votes in the years that were selected, had positive DBPM numbers, and a positive difference between ORtg and DRtg.  Add in Sheed, Stockton, Nene, all good individual + team defenders.  (And I want to say Granger could be a good defensive player, I remember him playing LeBron very well in the playoffs in '12, but I struggle to find anything to support that other than my memory).

I don't see your team playing a fast enough pace to be a problem for "slow footed" Marc Gasol, who played a big part in eliminating Giannis last year.  He also held his own against many quick footed Western Conference studs in his years in Memphis.  It's not like we're talking about Roy Hibbert here.  Plus Mourning was a strong, half court guy, not a mismatch for Marc Gasol.

And I actually think in a league like this, where individuals are largely drafted on their individual rather than team strengths (and usually with an emphasis on scoring/shooting), Boston actually has a pretty good team defense.  A lot of length and size in that front court that belongs to good defenders.

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Re: 2020 Historical Draft: ECF...#1 Boston vs #2 Milwaukee
« Reply #14 on: April 07, 2020, 07:29:15 PM »

Offline bdm860

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Also forgot Sprewell (stuck deep on the bench) can be brought in to try to slow down any scoring SG/SF.  Shut down Vince Carter in 2000 playoffs (here and here).  Video of Pierce shooting 8/23 against Sprewell in 2002 here.  Sprewell was no slouch either.

After 18 months with their Bigs, the Littles were: 46% less likely to use illegal drugs, 27% less likely to use alcohol, 52% less likely to skip school, 37% less likely to skip a class