Celtic Picks - 2019 draft

[nickagneta]

Do people have any perspectives on what kind of draft this is, generally? Is it weak after #1? Are the players coming out a year from now likely to be better? Is there value in the spots that the Celtics are picking in? Would New Orleans see value in them? I don't follow college hoops so I'm pretty much in the dark here.

I think this is a very deep draft with many future allstars in it.

There are superstars at the top, I think 3 perhaps 4 pick, allstars with potential of superstar based on growth as deep as 15th, and very good players after that.

Alot of positional size, athleticism and 2 way potential.

This might be the single most positive opinion I have seen regarding this draft. From what I have read and witnessed, there are only two players with superstar potential: Zion and Morant. Maybe you find one or two more that have All-Star potential, but other than that, most of this draft have ceilings of starter to rotational player at best.

People with connections to NBA front offices are saying they hear this to be a very weak draft.

[liam]

Do people have any perspectives on what kind of draft this is, generally? Is it weak after #1? Are the players coming out a year from now likely to be better? Is there value in the spots that the Celtics are picking in? Would New Orleans see value in them? I don't follow college hoops so I'm pretty much in the dark here.

I think this is a very deep draft with many future allstars in it.

There are superstars at the top, I think 3 perhaps 4 pick, allstars with potential of superstar based on growth as deep as 15th, and very good players after that.

Alot of positional size, athleticism and 2 way potential.

This might be the single most positive opinion I have seen regarding this draft. From what I have read and witnessed, there are only two players with superstar potential: Zion and Morant. Maybe you find one or two more that have All-Star potential, but other than that, most of this draft have ceilings of starter to rotational player at best.

People with connections to NBA front offices are saying they hear this to be a very weak draft.

I think their might be some underrated talent in this draft, just like in almost every draft. You could make a long list of players in the middle to the back of even in "weak" drafts ending up being all star players. I think this draft is going to have some star players later in the draft than the top two. I don't know exactly who they'll be but they are there. I like Hauchimura, Cam Raddish, Naz Ried, Hunter, Cam Johnson and Little. There is talent. The Greek Freak would not have went 15th in a weak draft if it was an exact science.

[wiley]

I think the drafts are slowing getting deeper (not talking about star power).

I think second rounders today are more likely to net a good player than 10 years ago.  I think this is due to the influx of players from all over the world. 

Inevitable misses are part of what makes the draft fun (when it's other GM's missing).  Misses by our own GM on the other hand can be pretty painful to think about down the road.   

[Silky]

Do people have any perspectives on what kind of draft this is, generally? Is it weak after #1? Are the players coming out a year from now likely to be better? Is there value in the spots that the Celtics are picking in? Would New Orleans see value in them? I don't follow college hoops so I'm pretty much in the dark here.

I think this is a very deep draft with many future allstars in it.

There are superstars at the top, I think 3 perhaps 4 pick, allstars with potential of superstar based on growth as deep as 15th, and very good players after that.

Alot of positional size, athleticism and 2 way potential.

This might be the single most positive opinion I have seen regarding this draft. From what I have read and witnessed, there are only two players with superstar potential: Zion and Morant. Maybe you find one or two more that have All-Star potential, but other than that, most of this draft have ceilings of starter to rotational player at best.

People with connections to NBA front offices are saying they hear this to be a very weak draft.

I think Naz, Little, Reddish are all better than what they show in college due to teamplay, the way they are used etc. Reddish is not good as a 3rd man in a college setting( for example)

I think once some of these kids make the nba and their roles change you will see Donovan Mitchell type jumps in production and impact.

But I am a positive guy when it comes to drafts

[Silky]

Key games tonight are Miami against Dallas. Go Miami (currently 1 game behind Sacramento)

The kicker is the pelicans sacramento game.

A pelicans win (1-9 last 10, 1-3 last 4) would keep them with a better record with memphis but would tie Miami with Sacramento for the 13th pick. A Kings win would put the pelicans in the 7th pick and would leave memphis .5 games behind Washibgton forbthe 9th pick.

Standings

Charlotte 2 games behind Kings for 14th pick
Miami 1 game behind Kings for pick 14
(Both team fighting for playoffs)

Memphis 0.5 games ahead of NOP amd Washington for 9th. LAL surging hard in the losses race stand 3 games ahead of memphis in 10th.

NOP, Lakers want to lose. Washington should be losing, Memphis wants pick to transfer this year

[slamtheking]

update for this week

Standings as of 3/28/19

Memphis pick --  #7   --  (protected top 8 ) 
                   Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Dallas                    0.5                    29                     8               2-8
Memphis               ---                     30                     7               5-5
Washington          +0.5                  31                     6               4-6
New Orleans         +0.5                  31                     6               1-9

--> Memphis stayed above Dallas and is closing on Wash and NO.   For the pick to convey this year without having to rely on someone miraculously jumping them in the lottery, Mem will have to pass them both to get to the #9 slot.  Memphis has a tough stretch to finish the year but they are playing better than the other teams jockeying for draft slots.   

Kings pick -- #14 -- (protected if top 1 - becomes Sixer pick if #1)
                       Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Miami                        1                      36                       8                 6-4                     
Sacramento            ---                      37                       8                 5-5

-> Kings are mixed with the Eastern teams at the bottom of the playoff cutoff so only tracking the Eastern team that's on the outside looking in.   This week, it's Miami.  No hope of any Western teams passing Sac.   Need the combination of Miami, Orlando, Detroit and Brooklyn to finish out the season strong so that whichever of those 4 miss the playoffs they have a better record than Sac so that it at least pushes the pick to #13.

Boston Pick --  #19 (tied with OKC)
                      Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
San Antonio             1                      43                        7                 7-3
OKC                        ---                      44                        7                 4-6
Boston                    ---                      44                       7                 5-5
LA Clippers              +1                     45                        7                 9-1
Utah                        +1                     45                        7                 8-2
Indiana                   +1                      45                        7                 3-7

--> Well, didn't think I'd see it this year but C's own pick has been bumped from the worst pick we'll have this year (for now).  C's pick could swing anywhere from #18 to #23.  Indy and OKC are finishing on a down note like the C's and C's have a couple of games against Indy that will impact where this pick falls (as well as playoff HCA for first round). 

Clipper Pick #22   --  (tied with Utah and Indiana) (protected  top 14) 
                        Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
San Antonio               2                      43                        7                 7-3
OKC                           1                      44                        7                 4-6
Boston                       1                      44                        7                 5-5
LA Clippers              ---                      45                        7                 9-1
Utah                         ---                      45                        7                 8-2
Indiana                     ---                      45                        7                 3-7

--> Clips are playing tough and have an outside shot of getting HCA in the first round in the west.  go figure.   We're guaranteed the pick this year so, yay, but they're not helping us at all with giving it to us close to the lottery cutoff.   Clip's pick could swing anywhere from #18 to #23.

Second Rounders:
Boston (protected 31-55)

Second rounders
Boston - #49
It's not going anywhere.

[slamtheking]

just quick hits for today and tomorrow for games impacting our picks:
Today:
Orl at Det.   - need both to win to stay ahead of Sac.  Sadly one must lose.  probably Orl on the road.
BRK at Phil - need BRK to win but likely a Philly win
Dal at Miami - need a Miami win and likely to get it
Clips at Mil - need a Clips loss and likely to get it
Sac at NO - tough call.  really need a Sac loss to improve the pick.  need a NO loss for those that want the Mem pick this year.  probably a Sac win.
Cle at SAS - Need a SAS win for a draft spot improvement.  Probably get it.

Tomorrow:
Indy at Boston - need an Indy win for draft purposes but a Boston win for getting 4th place.  would take HCA in the first round over a draft slot
Den at OKC - need OKC to win to help the draft slot.  likely a Den win though
Wash at Utah - need Wash to lose to help Mem pick and Utah to win to help draft slot for C's and Clips.  should get what we need
Cha at Lakers - need a Cha win to improve Sac pick.  Always glad to see a Laker loss.

[rondofan1255]

TP for the detailed breakdowns.

All these meaningless games with huge pick implications.

[Monkhouse]

TP for the detailed breakdowns.

All these meaningless games with huge pick implications.

Yeah same here, every small little win or loss can have some really drastic implications even an minuscule change could affect how we end up ping pong ball wise.

TP to slam for your hard work, appreciate it!

[liam]

TP for the detailed breakdowns.

All these meaningless games with huge pick implications.

Yeah same here, every small little win or loss can have some really drastic implications even an minuscule change could affect how we end up ping pong ball wise.



TP to slam for your hard work, appreciate it!

It's like Algebra. Thanks for braking it down.

[rondofan1255]

Dallas def. OKC without Luka
Washington def. Denver

both road games lol...

Memphis lost to the Clippers, and the outcome never seemed in doubt despite the 113-96 scoreline.

Remaining games:

@POR 4/3
@DAL 4/5
DAL 4/7
@DET 4/9
GSW 4/10

[Silky]

Dallas def. OKC without Luka
Washington def. Denver

both road games lol...

Memphis lost to the Clippers, and the outcome never seemed in doubt despite the 113-96 scoreline.

Remaining games:

@POR 4/3
@DAL 4/5
DAL 4/7
@DET 4/9
GSW 4/10

I really dont understand washington.

What a dumb franchise.

They never go all out for a good pick, and this year with wall going down they should have, yet they are never good enough to contend.

[slamtheking]

one more standings posting later this week and then by the next posting - season's done and we'll know where we stand pre-lottery.  had no idea there'd be so much potential changes to all the picks except Sac at this point.  figured they'd all be pretty much determined with maybe the potential to change one slot.

[slamtheking]

just some helpful info for the next few days for games impacting our picks

Today:
Lakers vs OKC - need an OKC win to help them catch C's and Clips to improve those picks.  Likely a Laker loss which is always a good thing. 
Atl vs SAS -  need a SAS win to help them catch C's and Clips to improve those picks.  Likely a SAS win
Hou vs Sac - Need a Sac loss and likely to get it.

Tomorrow:
Indy vs Det -- need an Indy win to help with the C's and Clips pick but really want an Indy loss to help with the C's getting the 4 seed.  toss up on this one since Det is home and fighting for playoff positioning too
NY vs Orl - need a Orl win to help with the Sac pick.  probable Orl win
Chi vs Wash - Need a Wash loss to help the Mem pick get to #9 to convey.  toss up here
Tor vs Brk - Need a Brk win to keep a better record than Sac
Bos vs Miami - Need a C's loss to improve the pick but need a win to keep the #4 seed.  i'd prefer the seed over a better slot
Cha vs NO - need a NO loss to help the Mem pick get to #9 to convey.  likely NO loss
Minn vs Dal - need a Dal loss to help the Mem pick get to #9 to convey.  Toss up
SAS vs Den - need a SAS win to help them catch C's and Clips to improve those picks.  Likely a SAS loss
Utah vs Phx - Need a Utah win to help the C's and Clips picks.  likely Utah win
Mem vs Port - Need a Mem win to help the pick convey.  Likely Mem loss
Hou vs Clips - Need a Clips loss to improve the pick.  toss up

Thursday:
Cle vs Sac - Need a Sac loss but they'll likely win

[Silky]

Tank Race!!!



Memphis is only 1 game out of 9th place by themselves, with a buch for losses coming from NOP and Dallas.

Memphis games Left

Winnable gaes are DallasX2, Detroit and IMO GSW (due to rest) Memphis 3-4 wins to close out season
34-48

Dallas Games Left:

Winnable games Phoenix and maybe san antonio (rest)
1-2 wins to close out season Dallas wants to keep their pick this year, Dallas wants to lose out and hopes that Atlanta wins at least 2 games to Keep their pick. Atlanta should lose to though so they can keep Dallas`pick. so its a real tank contest between these 2 teams
33-49, but really could lose every last game

NOP Games Left:

Winnable games Phoenix
1 win to close out season, they are tanking hard
33-49

Washington games left

They should be losing all of them, but they wont and will probably win against Chicago and against NYK (NYK is locked into the top pick, so they have nothing to lose at this point and will play super hard, might be a washington loss)
34-48

Kings .5 games up on Orlando for the 13th pick and 3 up on LAL and Charlotte

Sacramento Games left:

Probable wins is Cleveland and NOP
Finish season at 40-42

Orlando Games Left

Probable wins: NYK, Atlanta, Charlotte.
Finish season with a record of 41-41


Charlotte games Left:

Probable Wins NOP and Cleveland. (fighting for playoffs the Hornets are but will probably fall short, Kemba will want out this ofseason)

LAL Games Left:

Hard one to call, they should lose alot, but they have won more than lost lately,(4-1 over last 5) its almost like some of the player are sending a big FU to Lebron.



If predictions hold true Memphis will finish the season with the highest odds for the 9th pick (76.9% chance pick will be 9,10 or 11)

Sacramento will end season with the highest odds for the 13th pick. (95.2% chance pick is 13 or 14, 3.7% chance it is pick 2,3 or 4)