Mo Speights minimum deal in Orlando...
What a head scratcher! Turns down a player option for 2.11 and ends up getting slightly less, loses Bird rights, is playing for a non-competitor.
I know he has his limitations.. But Jeeesus.
I'm not surprised. I said months ago the players who were going to get squeezed by the new CBA were the NBA's middle class. Max salaries went up, and max players were always going to get theirs. Rookie salaries and cap holds went up even more, also cutting into cap and tax space. Minimum salaries increased substantially as well, including for players on already signed minimum deals who had their salaries bumped. Meanwhile, the revenue split didn't change. The changes to draft picks and minimum salaries alone cost teams $3-5 million, and then if you were maxing a player, add another $3-4 million. Combine that with a cap and luxury tax that came in under projections, and the well of money available for the Speights of the world had completely dried up.
It'll be like that going forward, although in a couple of seasons you'll likely see a few more players get the newly increased non-taxpayer mid-level. Really it's a return to the early days of the last CBA, when rookie salaries and minimum deals took up a lot more space, except this time if there's a cap spike those salaries will jump at the same time, so the middle class really needs to get used to this. It will get a little better for the upper-tier of the middle class when the contracts signed last summer drop off the books, but only so much.
Thank you thank you thank you. Please keep repeating this.
Perhaps folks might back off the idea that our role players (like Smart) will get $15-20M per. Role players (essentially, non-stars) are lucky to ever see a nickel over the mid level on the open market once the cap spike issues are worked out.
Depends on the skillset and team situation. Role players who are good 3pt shooters are going to get paid. There will be cases like Porter and Holiday where the team cap situation may dictate an overpay. Then you have KCP who had to settle for 1yr/17M and Noel who still isn't signed. The Sixers apparently gave Reddick 15 minutes to decide on their 1yr/23M offer. I'd expect teams teams to play more hardball. I'd expect more agents to start pushing their clients to accept team friendly extensions. For Smart, I'm not sure I'd even go 4 years/40M. Roberson turned down a 4yr/48M extension and had to settle for 3yr/30M. This is a perfect time to have a good GM who doesn't go by impulse or infatuation plus ownership that stays out of the way.
It won't just be role players. I don't think IT will get near a 4yr Max offer. There just aren't that many teams that will have the necessary cap space that need a PG that badly. The PG market is oversaturated. I don't see IT as a player that opposing GMs and owners are going to be infatuated with. They'll see him as overachieving in the Boston scheme. I think he'll end up getting more like 3yr/75M or 4yr/90M.
Time will tell on IT, plain and simple, but several teams will have max room next summer, and it's not clear how many potential max players will move. Again, I'm talking middle class, not stars. Stars still get paid, and IT is not a system player. He had very good numbers in Sacramento for 3 years. His half season in Phoenix was right in line. That he's at All-NBA level in his 6th year in his later 20s isn't the sign of being a system player -- it's the sign of a really good player at the peak of his career.
I do think IT needs a season in between his prior two seasons in terms of quality, such that teams aren't scared he's on his downslope -- he will always be doubted (as this message board is example A of) so he needs to alleviate those doubts.
The primary thing that could work against IT in free agency is if too many major free agents leave their current team. If LeBron leaves, Cleveland is still over the cap, so that's max money leaving the cap pool without a corresponding amount of cap space opening. Same thing with Boogie in New Orleans, Westbrook/George in OKC (if one leaves, OKC has no room, if both leave OKC is still short of max room, but will have a lot of space), Jordan in LA, Paul in Houston, Wiggins in Minnesota, and maybe 1-2 others. If there are a lot of stars on the move next summer, IT could find out there isn't quite the market. I find the above scenarios unlikely but not impossible. More likely than not IT gets the max, or something very close to it (shorter deal, incentives that get the contract up to max, etc.)
As for Smart, he's trickier. Restricted free agents have a tougher time finding contracts because teams don't want to waste the effort negotiating a contract, that, if fair, gets matched. In other words, you only get the player if you overpay. But with Smart, since the Celtics are in the tax, teams might think they will be able to sign him without the fear of the Celtics matching, in which case he's a normal free agent. He's also only going to be 24, which means you are betting that his best basketball is in his future, not last. I could see a few teams being interested, such as Phoenix, Dallas (where he's from), OKC if Westbrook and George leave (and where he went to school), Philly, and Indiana. All of those teams (including OKC with a departed Westbrook and George) will have cap room, are younger teams trying to find players with upside, and will have varying desires to be competitive, but are probably past a tanking stage. If Smart regresses, that's a different story of course, but if he continues to make incremental improvements, I think he'll be a hot commodity amongst several teams who won't be destinations for max stars. People call him a role-player, and he is, but as someone who turned 23 near the end of last season and is in his 3rd year. He's not a 29 year-old role player. There is a real difference, and that difference is potential, which NBA teams continually show they're willing to pay for.