Author Topic: Ranking Schroder & Timelord among starters at their position  (Read 2798 times)

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Ranking Schroder & Timelord among starters at their position
« on: January 20, 2022, 07:15:24 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Was thinking about this the other day. Unless one of your guys 2-4 is a primary playmaker type, the potency of your offense is really going to depend a great deal on the quality of players you have at the 1 and the 5.  The Celts certainly do not have a capable primary playmaker on the wing.

The 1-5 pick and roll is a bread and butter player for a modern NBA offense.  Especially in the regular season.  Also, teams typically rely on their 1 to hold down primary playmaking duties, and the 5 is crucial for setting picks, creating pressure on the rim by running to the rim / catching lob, or spacing the floor via pick-and-pop.

So what do the Celts have?

Timelord has come a long way in a short time, but I'm not sure where he ranks overall in the league as a starting center.

Schroder is a MLE type player for a reason. He's really playing out of his depth as a starting point guard / lead shot-creator.


Where do you think those two rank leaguewide among starters at their position?

Just as a starting point for the discussion -- according to 538's RAPTOR, this is where these two rank at their position:

Dennis Schroder -- 42nd

Rob Williams -- 18th



Note, however, these lists include backups.

This seems about right to me, though. I think I would probably rank Rob higher.  It's a little hard to understand why he comes in that low.  For this season, at least, it's not an issue of minutes.   

My instinct is that Rob is probably somewhere around the 10th best starting center in the league, though it's debatable.
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Re: Ranking Schroder & Timelord among starters at their position
« Reply #1 on: January 20, 2022, 07:19:36 PM »

Online Who

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I'd say Schroder is low 20s.
I'd guess Rob Williams in that 10-13 range.

Re: Ranking Schroder & Timelord among starters at their position
« Reply #2 on: January 20, 2022, 07:28:18 PM »

Online jambr380

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You think Schroder is the 42nd best PG in the NBA? I get that he has deficiencies, but that seems pretty low. Looking at the names on that list, I am not prepared to say that the likes of: Gabe Vincent, George Hill, De'Anthony Melton, etc are definitely better than Schroder. I mean Luka is ranked #26 on the list (and #28 at SG)

I'd also bump TL up a little bit, but think that he still has room to grow. His peak is something special, but he still has lingering injuries and things he needs to work on.

It's also hard to judge because guys are listed at multiple positions. It's not really fair to say somebody is the #X PG on the list, while also being the #X SG. At least we can be happy that Smart is the #15 SG in the NBA.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/

Note: I edited my response to add the 3rd paragraph while Pho was responding to my comment

Re: Ranking Schroder & Timelord among starters at their position
« Reply #3 on: January 20, 2022, 07:29:01 PM »

Offline Atzar

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Schroder is a back-end starter to me.  25-30.  Well above average for a backup though.  I do think that Celtics fans are harder on him than he deserves… perhaps just because they know he’s a one-year mercenary and haven’t gotten attached. 

Rob is hard to rate because his performance fluctuates quite a bit.  Without digging into names or numbers to justify this, I’d guess that he’s a roughly average starter overall.  15-ish. 

Re: Ranking Schroder & Timelord among starters at their position
« Reply #4 on: January 20, 2022, 07:29:54 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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You think Schroder is the 42nd best PG in the NBA? I get that he has deficiencies, but that seems pretty low. Looking at the names on that list, I am not prepared to say that the likes of: Gabe Vincent, George Hill, De'Anthony Melton, etc are definitely better than Schroder. I mean Luka is ranked #26 on the list.

I'd also bump TL up a little bit, but think that he still has room to grow. His peak is something special, but he still has lingering injuries and things he needs to work on.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/

I think Schroder is close to bottom of the league as a full time starting PG.  He's probably not quite as bad as the 42nd point guard option in the league, but he's not great.

The thing with Schroder is he puts up shots and gets some numbers, but there are plenty of guys who are more valuable to winning who do less -- partly *because* they do less.
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Re: Ranking Schroder & Timelord among starters at their position
« Reply #5 on: January 20, 2022, 07:35:17 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Schroder is a back-end starter to me.  25-30.  Well above average for a backup though.  I do think that Celtics fans are harder on him than he deserves… perhaps just because they know he’s a one-year mercenary and haven’t gotten attached. 

Rob is hard to rate because his performance fluctuates quite a bit.  Without digging into names or numbers to justify this, I’d guess that he’s a roughly average starter overall.  15-ish.

I think even if we credit Schroder with being, say, 25, and Rob being 12-15, the fact that the Celts have a bottom tier starting PG and an average to slightly above average starting center kind of explains in a simple way why the offense is so poor.

My perspective here, essentially, is that the lack of talent at the guard spots combined with having a good but not amazing starting center goes a lot further to explain where the offense is at than simply looking at the fact that the Celts have two wings scoring around 25 ppg and wondering why the offense isn't having more success.  The wing scorers simply don't drive the offense in the way we'd like.
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Re: Ranking Schroder & Timelord among starters at their position
« Reply #6 on: January 20, 2022, 08:29:14 PM »

Offline Atzar

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Schroder is a back-end starter to me.  25-30.  Well above average for a backup though.  I do think that Celtics fans are harder on him than he deserves… perhaps just because they know he’s a one-year mercenary and haven’t gotten attached. 

Rob is hard to rate because his performance fluctuates quite a bit.  Without digging into names or numbers to justify this, I’d guess that he’s a roughly average starter overall.  15-ish.

I think even if we credit Schroder with being, say, 25, and Rob being 12-15, the fact that the Celts have a bottom tier starting PG and an average to slightly above average starting center kind of explains in a simple way why the offense is so poor.

My perspective here, essentially, is that the lack of talent at the guard spots combined with having a good but not amazing starting center goes a lot further to explain where the offense is at than simply looking at the fact that the Celts have two wings scoring around 25 ppg and wondering why the offense isn't having more success.  The wing scorers simply don't drive the offense in the way we'd like.

Yeah, we need an upgrade at PG.  Yeah, Rob is a long way away from the Jokic-Embiid tier of starting bigs (though largely I think he's fine).  We've known these things since we started the season.  But I think blaming the struggles of the offense on those two positions is unnecessarily reductive.  Another poster mentioned recently that if you regressed Tatum's three ball to his career average and changed absolutely nothing else, our entire offense would shift from below average to roughly average. 

There isn't just a single blueprint for success, and the root of our issues isn't just one or two players.  We need improvement across the board.

Re: Ranking Schroder & Timelord among starters at their position
« Reply #7 on: January 20, 2022, 09:02:14 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Schroder is a better PG then 2 of the starting PG's in the Atlantic alone and 3 if you don't count Irving (who has barely played) or Harden (as a PG) as I'd take him over the Knicks and Sixers PG's without giving it a second thought (you know since Simmons hasn't suited up).  Depending on who you consider the PG in Indiana and Detroit, he is better than them.  Right now, I'd take him over Dinwiddie and Suggs.  So he is better than at least 4 and maybe up to 7 PG's in the Eastern Conference alone.  Out West, right now Schroder is better than Morris, Jackson, Brunson, Graham, and whomever you want to call the PG in Houston and I'd listen to arguments he is better than Westbrook at this point in time.  Obviously going forward, guys like Brunson are going to pass Schroder up, but right now, I'd take Schroder over him. 

So Schroder is what I'd call a middle of the road starting PG. 
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PF - Karl Malone 97, Spencer Haywood 73, David West 08
C - Ben Wallace 04, George Mikan 50, Al Jefferson 08

Re: Ranking Schroder & Timelord among starters at their position
« Reply #8 on: January 20, 2022, 09:32:23 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Schroder is a better PG then 2 of the starting PG's in the Atlantic alone and 3 if you don't count Irving (who has barely played) or Harden (as a PG) as I'd take him over the Knicks and Sixers PG's without giving it a second thought (you know since Simmons hasn't suited up).  Depending on who you consider the PG in Indiana and Detroit, he is better than them.  Right now, I'd take him over Dinwiddie and Suggs.  So he is better than at least 4 and maybe up to 7 PG's in the Eastern Conference alone.  Out West, right now Schroder is better than Morris, Jackson, Brunson, Graham, and whomever you want to call the PG in Houston and I'd listen to arguments he is better than Westbrook at this point in time.  Obviously going forward, guys like Brunson are going to pass Schroder up, but right now, I'd take Schroder over him. 

So Schroder is what I'd call a middle of the road starting PG.


Your opinion of Schroeder is wayyyyyyyy higher than mine
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Re: Ranking Schroder & Timelord among starters at their position
« Reply #9 on: January 20, 2022, 09:57:47 PM »

Online Csfan1984

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I'm in agreement with Schro 25-30 range. TL 12 to 17 range.

With Schro fit matters a lot so off the bench suits him best. TL is just missing a average outside shot from being 10-15.

Re: Ranking Schroder & Timelord among starters at their position
« Reply #10 on: January 20, 2022, 10:22:32 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Schroder is a better PG then 2 of the starting PG's in the Atlantic alone and 3 if you don't count Irving (who has barely played) or Harden (as a PG) as I'd take him over the Knicks and Sixers PG's without giving it a second thought (you know since Simmons hasn't suited up).  Depending on who you consider the PG in Indiana and Detroit, he is better than them.  Right now, I'd take him over Dinwiddie and Suggs.  So he is better than at least 4 and maybe up to 7 PG's in the Eastern Conference alone.  Out West, right now Schroder is better than Morris, Jackson, Brunson, Graham, and whomever you want to call the PG in Houston and I'd listen to arguments he is better than Westbrook at this point in time.  Obviously going forward, guys like Brunson are going to pass Schroder up, but right now, I'd take Schroder over him. 

So Schroder is what I'd call a middle of the road starting PG.


Your opinion of Schroeder is wayyyyyyyy higher than mine
That may be, though I really don't see him as a terrible starting PG.  He isn't in the top part of the league, but I just don't think he is scraping the bottom either.
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PF - Karl Malone 97, Spencer Haywood 73, David West 08
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Re: Ranking Schroder & Timelord among starters at their position
« Reply #11 on: January 21, 2022, 01:06:49 AM »

Offline Muzzy66

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Interesting stat - overall RAPTOR seems to suggest that our best starting lineup right now is:

PG: Dennis Schroeder
SG: Marcus Smart
SF: Jayson Tatum
PF: Al Horford
C: Enes Kanter

And the WAR suggests that it would be

PG: Dennis Schroeder
SG: Marcus Smart
SF: Jayson Tatum
PF: Al Horford
C: Rob Williams

Not sure I agree with either.   

It also seems to suggest that Jaylen Brown is our best trade piece (since he is our best overall player that ISN'T our #1 at any single position) and that the PG spot (Schroeder) is our biggest positional weakness in our starting five.

So takeaway from this is...we should trade Jaylen Brown + Dennis Schroeder and upgrade our starting PG spot?  :o

Re: Ranking Schroder & Timelord among starters at their position
« Reply #12 on: January 21, 2022, 02:04:45 AM »

Offline Muzzy66

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I guess one way of evaluating it is this.  If you were to start a new NBA team with your sole goal being "win it all this year" (money and future potential are non factors) then how many many guys would you choose over Schroeder and Rob Williams at their respective positions?

At the center spot I count 12 or 13 guys that I would probably take over Rob William
At the PG spot I count 16 or 17 guys that I would probably take over Dennis Schroeder

This was just based on a really quick glance so they are "give or take" - but based on the above I guess I would consider both guys to be roughly average NBA starters at their respective positions.

Looking at current the list of point guards in the NBA I honestly really struggle to see how anybody could list >25 point guards who are better then Schroeder.  He's a 19.4 pt / 6.3 ast / 4.0 reb / 1.1 stl / 44% FG / 34% 3PT / 85% FT guy Per-36 for his career.  Those look to me like well above average numbers for an NBA starting PG.  Now offset for the fact that his impact-based advanced stats are quite meh, and overall it seems like you have a fairly average starter all around. 

Eye test for me seems to agree with that, as I don't think think Schroeder tends to dominate (nor be dominated by) his matchups on most nights.
 He usually just kinda does ok and holds his own for the most part - at least it seems that way to me. 

Re: Ranking Schroder & Timelord among starters at their position
« Reply #13 on: January 21, 2022, 02:08:26 AM »

Offline W8ting2McHale

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I don’t care much for stats based on WAR or RAPTOR or LEBRON to be honest.

Now if you had some stats based on KG or the TRUTH then I would pay attention.

Re: Ranking Schroder & Timelord among starters at their position
« Reply #14 on: January 21, 2022, 03:53:00 AM »

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I don’t care much for stats based on WAR or RAPTOR or LEBRON to be honest.

Now if you had some stats based on KG or the TRUTH then I would pay attention.
To be fair the family of metrics that RAPTOR and LEBRON are derived from absolutely adore Garnett and Pierce (Garnett in particular - he holds some of the highest scores on record for some of these stats). Now RAPTOR and LEBRON themselves don't love those two like that, but they do have more reliable relatives (e.g. PI/multiyear RAPM, EPM). Those two are decent enough to be a litmus test for player impact either way.
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