I still have Romeo over Nesmith

[Vermont Green]

Interesting stats and yes, both Nesmith and Langford still have time to improve their shooting.  The oddest thing with the stats is that Korver shot 39% from 3 and 35% overall FG%.  I don't think I recall seeing a player with that type of stat inversion.

Whenever I see talk of a player just needing to improve their shooting, or "learn better mechanics" and things like that, I remember many conversations about Rondo and his shooting each offseason....

I guess his 3 point shot got a bit better, but his FT shooting was always a problem.

I agree that it is not a given that either will improve their shooting but both are still really young and there is still opportunity.  I think both will improve but how much is the key question.  It is not so much that their mechanics are off as much as just being more comfortable and confident.  Nesmith in particular seemed to rush his shots last season.  Just being more comfortable as a player in the NBA, more confident as an athlete, both help improve shooting results.

[coco]

Nessie over Romeo. 
….and is not that close.  Defense is arguably a wash, but Nessie’s offense is already better (strictly eye test).

Also, I like Nesmith instincts and energy better.

[Walker Wiggle]

Nessie over Romeo. 
….and is not that close.  Defense is arguably a wash, but Nessie’s offense is already better (strictly eye test).

Also, I like Nesmith instincts and energy better.

I respect this take, but the defense is not a wash. Langford is a much better defender than Nesmith.

[Sophomore]

Nessie over Romeo. 
….and is not that close.  Defense is arguably a wash, but Nessie’s offense is already better (strictly eye test).

Also, I like Nesmith instincts and energy better.

I respect this take, but the defense is not a wash. Langford is a much better defender than Nesmith.

Yeah, especially on-ball defense. Langford is miles better at staying in front of his man and cutting off angles. For a player who seems to have athletic ability, it’s striking to see Nesmith let offensive players get right by him; not sure what’s missing.

[Roy H.]

Nessie over Romeo. 
….and is not that close.  Defense is arguably a wash, but Nessie’s offense is already better (strictly eye test).

Also, I like Nesmith instincts and energy better.

I respect this take, but the defense is not a wash. Langford is a much better defender than Nesmith.

Yeah, especially on-ball defense. Langford is miles better at staying in front of his man and cutting off angles. For a player who seems to have athletic ability, it’s striking to see Nesmith let offensive players get right by him; not sure what’s missing.

That happened in one summer league game.  His entire rookie season Nesmith’s defense was fine or better.

[flybono]

RL is a bust

[Celtics2021]

Nessie over Romeo. 
….and is not that close.  Defense is arguably a wash, but Nessie’s offense is already better (strictly eye test).

Also, I like Nesmith instincts and energy better.

I respect this take, but the defense is not a wash. Langford is a much better defender than Nesmith.

Yeah, especially on-ball defense. Langford is miles better at staying in front of his man and cutting off angles. For a player who seems to have athletic ability, it’s striking to see Nesmith let offensive players get right by him; not sure what’s missing.

That happened in one summer league game.  His entire rookie season Nesmith’s defense was fine or better.

I really disagree with this take.  I saw a guy who played with a lot of effort and hustle, such that he made some very nice plays, but who more often than not was out of position/would get beat off the dribble.  He played very out of control.  He’s a rookie and I’m not writing him off, because he looks to have the physical ability, but “fine” is not at all how I’d describe Nesmith’s defense.  I’d call it an adventure.

[trickybilly]

Nessie over Romeo. 
….and is not that close.  Defense is arguably a wash, but Nessie’s offense is already better (strictly eye test).

Also, I like Nesmith instincts and energy better.

I respect this take, but the defense is not a wash. Langford is a much better defender than Nesmith.

Yeah, especially on-ball defense. Langford is miles better at staying in front of his man and cutting off angles. For a player who seems to have athletic ability, it’s striking to see Nesmith let offensive players get right by him; not sure what’s missing.

That happened in one summer league game.  His entire rookie season Nesmith’s defense was fine or better.

I really disagree with this take.  I saw a guy who played with a lot of effort and hustle, such that he made some very nice plays, but who more often than not was out of position/would get beat off the dribble.  He played very out of control.  He’s a rookie and I’m not writing him off, because he looks to have the physical ability, but “fine” is not at all how I’d describe Nesmith’s defense.  I’d call it an adventure.

Here is a nice example at 2.10. He challenges the pass to Tim Hardaway Jr (who is no slouch), recovers and challenges two direction changes with Hardaway's dribble. He is certainly capable, he just needs to learn not to over-commit, basically.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsy8iR_sn4o

[moiso]

To me it seems like Romeo's lateral quickness is much better.  Romeo has enough quickness that he can stay in front of a player without the guesswork that Nesmith requires.  It seems like for Nesmith to stay in position he has to guess correctly what the offensive player is going to do, whereas Romeo's body just seems to automatically do the same work.  A baseball analogy would a guy with great bat speed seeing the pitch and swinging at the last instant vs a guy who has to make up his mind and start swinging a little earlier.

[Sophomore]

Nessie over Romeo. 
….and is not that close.  Defense is arguably a wash, but Nessie’s offense is already better (strictly eye test).

Also, I like Nesmith instincts and energy better.

I respect this take, but the defense is not a wash. Langford is a much better defender than Nesmith.

Yeah, especially on-ball defense. Langford is miles better at staying in front of his man and cutting off angles. For a player who seems to have athletic ability, it’s striking to see Nesmith let offensive players get right by him; not sure what’s missing.

That happened in one summer league game.  His entire rookie season Nesmith’s defense was fine or better.

I really disagree with this take.  I saw a guy who played with a lot of effort and hustle, such that he made some very nice plays, but who more often than not was out of position/would get beat off the dribble.  He played very out of control.  He’s a rookie and I’m not writing him off, because he looks to have the physical ability, but “fine” is not at all how I’d describe Nesmith’s defense.  I’d call it an adventure.

Here is a nice example at 2.10. He challenges the pass to Tim Hardaway Jr (who is no slouch), recovers and challenges two direction changes with Hardaway's dribble. He is certainly capable, he just needs to learn not to over-commit, basically.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsy8iR_sn4o

I’m hoping this is it. Sometimes he does just fine. Other times, I think especially on closeouts, he’d come in too hot and it was easy for his man to sidestep and get by. He’s got a pretty good ability to recover after getting beat - which is good - tho I hope not to see him have to use it as much going forward.

The team d is a little harder to evaluate. Start of the season he was completely lost but he clearly improved thru the year. Best case, he’ll get the intensity right and become a good defender to balance very good to excellent shooting.

[droopdog7]

Nessie over Romeo. 
….and is not that close.  Defense is arguably a wash, but Nessie’s offense is already better (strictly eye test).

Also, I like Nesmith instincts and energy better.

I respect this take, but the defense is not a wash. Langford is a much better defender than Nesmith.

Yeah, especially on-ball defense. Langford is miles better at staying in front of his man and cutting off angles. For a player who seems to have athletic ability, it’s striking to see Nesmith let offensive players get right by him; not sure what’s missing.

That happened in one summer league game.  His entire rookie season Nesmith’s defense was fine or better.

I really disagree with this take.  I saw a guy who played with a lot of effort and hustle, such that he made some very nice plays, but who more often than not was out of position/would get beat off the dribble.  He played very out of control.  He’s a rookie and I’m not writing him off, because he looks to have the physical ability, but “fine” is not at all how I’d describe Nesmith’s defense.  I’d call it an adventure.

Here is a nice example at 2.10. He challenges the pass to Tim Hardaway Jr (who is no slouch), recovers and challenges two direction changes with Hardaway's dribble. He is certainly capable, he just needs to learn not to over-commit, basically.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsy8iR_sn4o

That was good defense, and it's funny that you referenced it because I specifically remember that play as I was relatively shocked that he did so well.  But it was relatively rare compared to the times guys got the corner on him, which was almost every time they tried at the beginning of the season.  He was plain awful.  The question about nesmith's defense is whether it's mostly physical, mental, or emotional.  I guess you can throw experience in there somewhere too.

If it's physical (i.e., lateral quickness), then it's pretty much always going to be an issue.  His offense may or may not be good enough to ignore but just for perspective, I think guys like Duncan Robinson and Reddick are actually better at moving their feet right now than Nesmith.  Yes, they've been in the league longer than nesmith could be just fine over time.  But that's where I think he's at with no assurances.

The other two possibilities (mental and emotional) would be more likely to correct.  Yeah, he simply needs to calm down and I think he can.  We saw some of that in summer league, albeit it was summer league.  It's also possible that his mind isn't allowing him to react quick enough right now.  I see that differently than lateral quickness and maybe that too can improve.

We shall see but I would say emphatically that his defense is a far cry from fine.  It's awful, and he needs to improve to have a chance.

[Roy H.]

Nessie over Romeo. 
….and is not that close.  Defense is arguably a wash, but Nessie’s offense is already better (strictly eye test).

Also, I like Nesmith instincts and energy better.

I respect this take, but the defense is not a wash. Langford is a much better defender than Nesmith.

Yeah, especially on-ball defense. Langford is miles better at staying in front of his man and cutting off angles. For a player who seems to have athletic ability, it’s striking to see Nesmith let offensive players get right by him; not sure what’s missing.

That happened in one summer league game.  His entire rookie season Nesmith’s defense was fine or better.

I really disagree with this take.  I saw a guy who played with a lot of effort and hustle, such that he made some very nice plays, but who more often than not was out of position/would get beat off the dribble.  He played very out of control.  He’s a rookie and I’m not writing him off, because he looks to have the physical ability, but “fine” is not at all how I’d describe Nesmith’s defense.  I’d call it an adventure.

Here is a nice example at 2.10. He challenges the pass to Tim Hardaway Jr (who is no slouch), recovers and challenges two direction changes with Hardaway's dribble. He is certainly capable, he just needs to learn not to over-commit, basically.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsy8iR_sn4o

That was good defense, and it's funny that you referenced it because I specifically remember that play as I was relatively shocked that he did so well.  But it was relatively rare compared to the times guys got the corner on him, which was almost every time they tried at the beginning of the season.  He was plain awful.  The question about nesmith's defense is whether it's mostly physical, mental, or emotional.  I guess you can throw experience in there somewhere too.

If it's physical (i.e., lateral quickness), then it's pretty much always going to be an issue.  His offense may or may not be good enough to ignore but just for perspective, I think guys like Duncan Robinson and Reddick are actually better at moving their feet right now than Nesmith.  Yes, they've been in the league longer than nesmith could be just fine over time.  But that's where I think he's at with no assurances.

The other two possibilities (mental and emotional) would be more likely to correct.  Yeah, he simply needs to calm down and I think he can.  We saw some of that in summer league, albeit it was summer league.  It's also possible that his mind isn't allowing him to react quick enough right now.  I see that differently than lateral quickness and maybe that too can improve.

We shall see but I would say emphatically that his defense is a far cry from fine.  It's awful, and he needs to improve to have a chance.

I think some of that is selective memory.  For the season, tracking data suggests that Nesmith’s opponents shot 45.7% against him, compared to their typical percentage of 45.4%.  Opponents shot 3.5 percentage points worse against him on jumpers 15 feet or further from the basket, including only allowing 31.6% on 3PTs (over 4% off their typical pace).  Those long jumpers accounted for over 52% of the offense against Nesmith.

Romeo is excellent using these same metrics.  He’s closer to elite than “fine”.

Do you know who was a much worse defender than Nesmith last year?  Pritchard.  Opponents feasted on him.  For instance, opponents shot 46.7% 3PT% against him.

[droopdog7]

Nessie over Romeo. 
….and is not that close.  Defense is arguably a wash, but Nessie’s offense is already better (strictly eye test).

Also, I like Nesmith instincts and energy better.

I respect this take, but the defense is not a wash. Langford is a much better defender than Nesmith.

Yeah, especially on-ball defense. Langford is miles better at staying in front of his man and cutting off angles. For a player who seems to have athletic ability, it’s striking to see Nesmith let offensive players get right by him; not sure what’s missing.

That happened in one summer league game.  His entire rookie season Nesmith’s defense was fine or better.

I really disagree with this take.  I saw a guy who played with a lot of effort and hustle, such that he made some very nice plays, but who more often than not was out of position/would get beat off the dribble.  He played very out of control.  He’s a rookie and I’m not writing him off, because he looks to have the physical ability, but “fine” is not at all how I’d describe Nesmith’s defense.  I’d call it an adventure.

Here is a nice example at 2.10. He challenges the pass to Tim Hardaway Jr (who is no slouch), recovers and challenges two direction changes with Hardaway's dribble. He is certainly capable, he just needs to learn not to over-commit, basically.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsy8iR_sn4o

That was good defense, and it's funny that you referenced it because I specifically remember that play as I was relatively shocked that he did so well.  But it was relatively rare compared to the times guys got the corner on him, which was almost every time they tried at the beginning of the season.  He was plain awful.  The question about nesmith's defense is whether it's mostly physical, mental, or emotional.  I guess you can throw experience in there somewhere too.

If it's physical (i.e., lateral quickness), then it's pretty much always going to be an issue.  His offense may or may not be good enough to ignore but just for perspective, I think guys like Duncan Robinson and Reddick are actually better at moving their feet right now than Nesmith.  Yes, they've been in the league longer than nesmith could be just fine over time.  But that's where I think he's at with no assurances.

The other two possibilities (mental and emotional) would be more likely to correct.  Yeah, he simply needs to calm down and I think he can.  We saw some of that in summer league, albeit it was summer league.  It's also possible that his mind isn't allowing him to react quick enough right now.  I see that differently than lateral quickness and maybe that too can improve.

We shall see but I would say emphatically that his defense is a far cry from fine.  It's awful, and he needs to improve to have a chance.

I think some of that is selective memory.  For the season, tracking data suggests that Nesmith’s opponents shot 45.7% against him, compared to their typical percentage of 45.4%.  Opponents shot 3.5 percentage points worse against him on jumpers 15 feet or further from the basket, including only allowing 31.6% on 3PTs (over 4% off their typical pace).  Those long jumpers accounted for over 52% of the offense against Nesmith.

Romeo is excellent using these same metrics.  He’s closer to elite than “fine”.

Do you know who was a much worse defender than Nesmith last year?  Pritchard.  Opponents feasted on him.  For instance, opponents shot 46.7% 3PT% against him.

I appreciate the work but I am not convinced that NBA individual defense metrics aren't complete trash.

[Roy H.]

Nessie over Romeo. 
….and is not that close.  Defense is arguably a wash, but Nessie’s offense is already better (strictly eye test).

Also, I like Nesmith instincts and energy better.

I respect this take, but the defense is not a wash. Langford is a much better defender than Nesmith.

Yeah, especially on-ball defense. Langford is miles better at staying in front of his man and cutting off angles. For a player who seems to have athletic ability, it’s striking to see Nesmith let offensive players get right by him; not sure what’s missing.

That happened in one summer league game.  His entire rookie season Nesmith’s defense was fine or better.

I really disagree with this take.  I saw a guy who played with a lot of effort and hustle, such that he made some very nice plays, but who more often than not was out of position/would get beat off the dribble.  He played very out of control.  He’s a rookie and I’m not writing him off, because he looks to have the physical ability, but “fine” is not at all how I’d describe Nesmith’s defense.  I’d call it an adventure.

Here is a nice example at 2.10. He challenges the pass to Tim Hardaway Jr (who is no slouch), recovers and challenges two direction changes with Hardaway's dribble. He is certainly capable, he just needs to learn not to over-commit, basically.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsy8iR_sn4o

That was good defense, and it's funny that you referenced it because I specifically remember that play as I was relatively shocked that he did so well.  But it was relatively rare compared to the times guys got the corner on him, which was almost every time they tried at the beginning of the season.  He was plain awful.  The question about nesmith's defense is whether it's mostly physical, mental, or emotional.  I guess you can throw experience in there somewhere too.

If it's physical (i.e., lateral quickness), then it's pretty much always going to be an issue.  His offense may or may not be good enough to ignore but just for perspective, I think guys like Duncan Robinson and Reddick are actually better at moving their feet right now than Nesmith.  Yes, they've been in the league longer than nesmith could be just fine over time.  But that's where I think he's at with no assurances.

The other two possibilities (mental and emotional) would be more likely to correct.  Yeah, he simply needs to calm down and I think he can.  We saw some of that in summer league, albeit it was summer league.  It's also possible that his mind isn't allowing him to react quick enough right now.  I see that differently than lateral quickness and maybe that too can improve.

We shall see but I would say emphatically that his defense is a far cry from fine.  It's awful, and he needs to improve to have a chance.

I think some of that is selective memory.  For the season, tracking data suggests that Nesmith’s opponents shot 45.7% against him, compared to their typical percentage of 45.4%.  Opponents shot 3.5 percentage points worse against him on jumpers 15 feet or further from the basket, including only allowing 31.6% on 3PTs (over 4% off their typical pace).  Those long jumpers accounted for over 52% of the offense against Nesmith.

Romeo is excellent using these same metrics.  He’s closer to elite than “fine”.

Do you know who was a much worse defender than Nesmith last year?  Pritchard.  Opponents feasted on him.  For instance, opponents shot 46.7% 3PT% against him.

I appreciate the work but I am not convinced that NBA individual defense metrics aren't complete trash.

If you use common sense, I think the tracking data generally makes sense. Obviously, you need to take into account things like better defenders cover better players, etc.

In this process particular subset, the numbers matched my personal observations:  Langford has been excellent, Nesmith has been mediocre (good on the perimeter, poor within 15 feet), and PP has been pretty abused.

I like the specific synergy style stats, but I don’t think there is commonly available access to them anymore.  Those tell us a lot more about who has what skills.

[Surferdad]

Nessie over Romeo. 
….and is not that close.  Defense is arguably a wash, but Nessie’s offense is already better (strictly eye test).

Also, I like Nesmith instincts and energy better.

I respect this take, but the defense is not a wash. Langford is a much better defender than Nesmith.

Yeah, especially on-ball defense. Langford is miles better at staying in front of his man and cutting off angles. For a player who seems to have athletic ability, it’s striking to see Nesmith let offensive players get right by him; not sure what’s missing.

That happened in one summer league game.  His entire rookie season Nesmith’s defense was fine or better.

I really disagree with this take.  I saw a guy who played with a lot of effort and hustle, such that he made some very nice plays, but who more often than not was out of position/would get beat off the dribble.  He played very out of control.  He’s a rookie and I’m not writing him off, because he looks to have the physical ability, but “fine” is not at all how I’d describe Nesmith’s defense.  I’d call it an adventure.

Here is a nice example at 2.10. He challenges the pass to Tim Hardaway Jr (who is no slouch), recovers and challenges two direction changes with Hardaway's dribble. He is certainly capable, he just needs to learn not to over-commit, basically.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsy8iR_sn4o

That was good defense, and it's funny that you referenced it because I specifically remember that play as I was relatively shocked that he did so well.  But it was relatively rare compared to the times guys got the corner on him, which was almost every time they tried at the beginning of the season.  He was plain awful.  The question about nesmith's defense is whether it's mostly physical, mental, or emotional.  I guess you can throw experience in there somewhere too.

If it's physical (i.e., lateral quickness), then it's pretty much always going to be an issue.  His offense may or may not be good enough to ignore but just for perspective, I think guys like Duncan Robinson and Reddick are actually better at moving their feet right now than Nesmith.  Yes, they've been in the league longer than nesmith could be just fine over time.  But that's where I think he's at with no assurances.

The other two possibilities (mental and emotional) would be more likely to correct.  Yeah, he simply needs to calm down and I think he can.  We saw some of that in summer league, albeit it was summer league.  It's also possible that his mind isn't allowing him to react quick enough right now.  I see that differently than lateral quickness and maybe that too can improve.

We shall see but I would say emphatically that his defense is a far cry from fine.  It's awful, and he needs to improve to have a chance.

I think some of that is selective memory.  For the season, tracking data suggests that Nesmith’s opponents shot 45.7% against him, compared to their typical percentage of 45.4%.  Opponents shot 3.5 percentage points worse against him on jumpers 15 feet or further from the basket, including only allowing 31.6% on 3PTs (over 4% off their typical pace).  Those long jumpers accounted for over 52% of the offense against Nesmith.

Romeo is excellent using these same metrics.  He’s closer to elite than “fine”.

Do you know who was a much worse defender than Nesmith last year?  Pritchard.  Opponents feasted on him.  For instance, opponents shot 46.7% 3PT% against him.

I appreciate the work but I am not convinced that NBA individual defense metrics aren't complete trash.

If you use common sense, I think the tracking data generally makes sense. Obviously, you need to take into account things like better defenders cover better players, etc.

In this process particular subset, the numbers matched my personal observations:  Langford has been excellent, Nesmith has been mediocre (good on the perimeter, poor within 15 feet), and PP has been pretty abused.

I like the specific synergy style stats, but I don’t think there is commonly available access to them anymore.  Those tell us a lot more about who has what skills.

It's depressing to hear about the flaws in so many of our young guys....makes me think that Rob Williams III may be the only true good prospect.