The Max Free Agent Plan Trap

[Ed Monix]

I may be in the minority, but I continue to be flummoxed by the notion that the Celtics relying on an opened maximum salary slot, is a smart or recommended plan, given what recent history has demonstrated.

Just looking at the next two free agent classes, it’s rather obvious the Celtics are only targeting Bradley Beal, which in itself is crazy, but look at how other teams (including major markets) have fared after ‘opening up max cap space’.

The Knicks, Lakers, Mavericks and even Miami have all been stung long term by their failure to get their target(s). Not only is it foolish to plan for an uncontrollable scenario, but when you fail, you get bitten harder because you have to use that space on either overpaying your own free agents that you’ve neglected or a much less qualified free agent who doesn’t fit your team.

The serious question has to be asked, why would the Wizards allow Beal to enter free agency if they had even the slightest inclination he was going to leave? Simply if the team struggles early, why wouldn’t they make him available for trades? Not even on the trade block, just listening. This would immediately rule us out of the running.

What if Wizards say to Beal we will give you a sign and trade in the off-season, allowing you to get the most available years and money, this would also rule the Celtics out.

The Warriors have Wiggins’ salary which ends in 2023, Wiseman, Moody, Kuminga & future picks which will be valuable given their cores advanced age.

The Celtics are just holding on with hope that GSW aren’t interested in Beal because if they are, the Celtics will continue in NBA purgatory for the foreseeable future.

[Vermont Green]

I may be in the minority, but I continue to be flummoxed by the notion that the Celtics relying on an opened maximum salary slot, is a smart or recommended plan, given what recent history has demonstrated.

Just looking at the next two free agent classes, it’s rather obvious the Celtics are only targeting Bradley Beal, which in itself is crazy, but look at how other teams (including major markets) have fared after ‘opening up max cap space’.

The Knicks, Lakers, Mavericks and even Miami have all been stung long term by their failure to get their target(s). Not only is it foolish to plan for an uncontrollable scenario, but when you fail, you get bitten harder because you have to use that space on either overpaying your own free agents that you’ve neglected or a much less qualified free agent who doesn’t fit your team.

The serious question has to be asked, why would the Wizards allow Beal to enter free agency if they had even the slightest inclination he was going to leave? Simply if the team struggles early, why wouldn’t they make him available for trades? Not even on the trade block, just listening. This would immediately rule us out of the running.

What if Wizards say to Beal we will give you a sign and trade in the off-season, allowing you to get the most available years and money, this would also rule the Celtics out.

The Warriors have Wiggins’ salary which ends in 2023, Wiseman, Moody, Kuminga & future picks which will be valuable given their cores advanced age.

The Celtics are just holding on with hope that GSW aren’t interested in Beal because if they are, the Celtics will continue in NBA purgatory for the foreseeable future.

This notion that all the Celtics moves are for the sole purpose of getting Beal seems to be embraced by some fans but there is no reason to believe that this is why the Celtics are doing any given move.  Good financial management and flexibility is good any case.   I think the likelihood of getting Beal is slim but I don't think they have done anything or missed any opportunity where I feel they did it because they are trying to get Beal.

Is it the Fournier deal (or non deal) that is making you think they are going all in just for Beal?  The Kemba trade?  Is your criticism directed at the team or the fans?  What is it you wish they had done that they didn't?

[BitterJim]

Why would the Wizards wanting a sign-and-trade in any way rule us out? It would still be Beal's decision about where to go, we wouldn't have to match salaries to take him into cap space, and there isn't actually any difference in contract between a sign and trade and just a free agent signing.

I also think the idea that the front office has a plan with no contingencies (ie, Beal or bust, and in years past AD or bust) is completely wrong. People hate to hear the word "flexibility", but that's exactly what being able to open up a ton of cap space grants us. How many stars have requested trades in the past 5 years, and how many if those were people predicting a year out?

But most importantly, what moves did we make this summer that we can't essentially undo next summer even if Beal doesn't come? Players like Fournier are available every year, if we really want someone like that our space or movable contracts could get them.

[Celtics2021]

There are a lot of things you can do with max room. One is sign a max player.  Another is trade for a max player more easily. A third is sign multiple players a tier down from max.  And a fourth is resign your own free agents who’s expired contracts give you the max room.

There’s certainly some risk, but I think it’s not a crazy one for the C’s.  It hasn’t been something they’ve planned for years, so it’s not sacrificing a lot of seasons to pursue it.  They aren’t really even sacrificing this one, as expiring deals will be useful at the trade deadline.  Further, there aren’t a ton of teams with cap room next year.  This means it will be easier to sign the player they target, and also makes it more likely they can keep their own free agents if they lose out.

The C’s made a choice of one year of Josh Richardson and Dennis Schröder instead of 3-4 years of Evan Fournier.  Which would be better for this year’s team?  I’m not quite sure, but I know I hated our defense in general last year, and I know I yelled at Fournier through my TV set regularly during the playoffs for his lapses.  So I’m more than willing to give this a try.

But aside from that decision, the likelihood they get truly burned is low.  Worst case scenario is we come back with most of this team next year (if we were reasonably successful) plus someone with the MLE.  And if we have another year like last year, it’s much easier to blow things up when you’re starting with a bunch of expirings anyway.

[Csfan1984]

Beal is probably option "A" but as others mentioned cap flexibility to build around the Js is the true motivation. See how the Js develop one more year then get what fits next to them. That might be Beal/LaVine or it could be a bunch of tier 2 FAs that are 3&D guys.

[Donoghus]

From a cap standpoint, the front office has brought them from a rather rough situation to one in a much better position.

I like to think this front office is smart enough to have multiple contingencies in place also. Not just "all or nothing".

[gouki88]

There are a lot of things you can do with max room. One is sign a max player.  Another is trade for a max player more easily. A third is sign multiple players a tier down from max.  And a fourth is resign your own free agents who’s expired contracts give you the max room.

There’s certainly some risk, but I think it’s not a crazy one for the C’s.  It hasn’t been something they’ve planned for years, so it’s not sacrificing a lot of seasons to pursue it.  They aren’t really even sacrificing this one, as expiring deals will be useful at the trade deadline.  Further, there aren’t a ton of teams with cap room next year.  This means it will be easier to sign the player they target, and also makes it more likely they can keep their own free agents if they lose out.

The C’s made a choice of one year of Josh Richardson and Dennis Schröder instead of 3-4 years of Evan Fournier.  Which would be better for this year’s team?  I’m not quite sure, but I know I hated our defense in general last year, and I know I yelled at Fournier through my TV set regularly during the playoffs for his lapses.  So I’m more than willing to give this a try.

But aside from that decision, the likelihood they get truly burned is low.  Worst case scenario is we come back with most of this team next year (if we were reasonably successful) plus someone with the MLE.  And if we have another year like last year, it’s much easier to blow things up when you’re starting with a bunch of expirings anyway.

Definitely worth keeping in mind. It is definitely not Beal or bust from where I sit

[Roy H.]

I don't have big expectations for free agency next year.  I think it's unlikely that we sign anybody.  And, realistically, perhaps that wouldn't be a bad thing.  I foresee Summer 2022 being a lot like Summer 2021, where we tread water and attempt to sign guys to one year deals, looking toward Summer 2023.

2023 is when the real game-changers could become available.  Joel Embiid, for instance, is scheduled to be a free agent.  Unless Philly makes the Finals, I think he'll explore free agency.  The Jays should start recruiting him now:

Embiid
Tatum
Nesmith
Brown
Pritchard

That's a core that we can go to war with.  Jokic is also scheduled to be a free agent that season, although I suspect that he's more likely to stay in Denver.

[tstorey_97]

In an entirely different league, Auerbach did this.

Ainge got Garnett and wiffed with Davis.

Lebron has done it a couple times.

GM's attempt this because it gives them a chance.

Not sure about Beal, just because he's a "big name" doesn't mean Stevens wants him, it's just the media looking for noise.

That list of FA's is changing by the day, but Garnett came to Boston, Allen got here, Rondo worked out. That's a lot of luck.

BTW, "Do you want to play with the J's?" that gets a little better sounding each season that passes.

Fortune favors the bold.

[PhoSita]

I don't have big expectations for free agency next year.  I think it's unlikely that we sign anybody.  And, realistically, perhaps that wouldn't be a bad thing.  I foresee Summer 2022 being a lot like Summer 2021, where we tread water and attempt to sign guys to one year deals, looking toward Summer 2023.

2023 is when the real game-changers could become available.  Joel Embiid, for instance, is scheduled to be a free agent.  Unless Philly makes the Finals, I think he'll explore free agency.  The Jays should start recruiting him now:

Embiid
Tatum
Nesmith
Brown
Pritchard

That's a core that we can go to war with.  Jokic is also scheduled to be a free agent that season, although I suspect that he's more likely to stay in Denver.

This seems much less likely to me if the Celtics are a 40-45 win team in 21-22 and then follow that up with another "bridge year" summer and have a similar record in 22-23.

There are certainly reasons to think the Celtics will be better than that each of the next two seasons, but it's still entirely plausible given where the roster is at compared to the rest of the East right now.


Note as well that in Summer 2023, Jaylen Brown will be entering the last year of his deal.  Tatum will have two years remaining.  If the Celts have basically been treading water / floundering for three straight seasons at that point, it seems just as likely that either or both of those guys will be eyeing the door, rather than trying to recruit some other big name to join them.

[Celtics2021]

I don't have big expectations for free agency next year.  I think it's unlikely that we sign anybody.  And, realistically, perhaps that wouldn't be a bad thing.  I foresee Summer 2022 being a lot like Summer 2021, where we tread water and attempt to sign guys to one year deals, looking toward Summer 2023.

2023 is when the real game-changers could become available.  Joel Embiid, for instance, is scheduled to be a free agent.  Unless Philly makes the Finals, I think he'll explore free agency.  The Jays should start recruiting him now:

Embiid
Tatum
Nesmith
Brown
Pritchard

That's a core that we can go to war with.  Jokic is also scheduled to be a free agent that season, although I suspect that he's more likely to stay in Denver.

Jokic is a lock for a supermax and Embiid will be if he finishes all-nba once in the next two years.  You think they’ll turn them down?

EDIT: Embiid is currently eligible.

[Roy H.]

I don't have big expectations for free agency next year.  I think it's unlikely that we sign anybody.  And, realistically, perhaps that wouldn't be a bad thing.  I foresee Summer 2022 being a lot like Summer 2021, where we tread water and attempt to sign guys to one year deals, looking toward Summer 2023.

2023 is when the real game-changers could become available.  Joel Embiid, for instance, is scheduled to be a free agent.  Unless Philly makes the Finals, I think he'll explore free agency.  The Jays should start recruiting him now:

Embiid
Tatum
Nesmith
Brown
Pritchard

That's a core that we can go to war with.  Jokic is also scheduled to be a free agent that season, although I suspect that he's more likely to stay in Denver.

Jokic is a lock for a supermax and Embiid will be if he finishes all-nba once in the next two years.  You think they’ll turn them down?

Free agents have taken less before.  If Embiid suffers two more years of failure with teammates who don't fit and a really critical fan base, I could see him leaving for a better situation.  In two years, Embiid is in his what, 9th year in the league?  He could sign a 1 + 1 deal with any team with cap space and get his 35% the following year, right?

[PhoSita]

I don't have big expectations for free agency next year.  I think it's unlikely that we sign anybody.  And, realistically, perhaps that wouldn't be a bad thing.  I foresee Summer 2022 being a lot like Summer 2021, where we tread water and attempt to sign guys to one year deals, looking toward Summer 2023.

2023 is when the real game-changers could become available.  Joel Embiid, for instance, is scheduled to be a free agent.  Unless Philly makes the Finals, I think he'll explore free agency.  The Jays should start recruiting him now:

Embiid
Tatum
Nesmith
Brown
Pritchard

That's a core that we can go to war with.  Jokic is also scheduled to be a free agent that season, although I suspect that he's more likely to stay in Denver.

Jokic is a lock for a supermax and Embiid will be if he finishes all-nba once in the next two years.  You think they’ll turn them down?

Free agents have taken less before.  If Embiid suffers two more years of failure with teammates who don't fit and a really critical fan base, I could see him leaving for a better situation.  In two years, Embiid is in his what, 9th year in the league?  He could sign a 1 + 1 deal with any team with cap space and get his 35% the following year, right?

If Embiid is coming off a couple more disappointing seasons and wants to escape a critical fan base, I'm not sure that going to another northeast team that has had a somewhat rough go of it for a few years, despite talent at the top of the roster, is going to be his preference.


Another thing to consider is that if the Nets and/or Giannis continue to be dominant over the next couple of seasons, escaping the Eastern Conference may also be a factor in the decision making of top free agents.

[PhoSita]

I don't have big expectations for free agency next year.  I think it's unlikely that we sign anybody.  And, realistically, perhaps that wouldn't be a bad thing.  I foresee Summer 2022 being a lot like Summer 2021, where we tread water and attempt to sign guys to one year deals, looking toward Summer 2023.

2023 is when the real game-changers could become available.  Joel Embiid, for instance, is scheduled to be a free agent.  Unless Philly makes the Finals, I think he'll explore free agency.  The Jays should start recruiting him now:

Embiid
Tatum
Nesmith
Brown
Pritchard

That's a core that we can go to war with.  Jokic is also scheduled to be a free agent that season, although I suspect that he's more likely to stay in Denver.

So much for that Embiid idea

[bogg]

"Max space" always required totally gutting the team of all non-Jays players in order to roll the dice on a less-than-50/50 chance of making meaningful signing, and then you're probably spending an additional year or two rebuilding your depth. The likelier path to contention was always making the team as good as possible with some movable contracts and full control over all of your picks.

If the Jays are healthy and surrounded by competent vets you're a threat to advance in the playoffs every year.