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Re: Danny's Plan (idea)
« Reply #45 on: March 17, 2012, 08:32:53 PM »

Offline Chris

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I still have no idea why you believe that the alternative to maximize wins now is losing flexibility or something. That dichotomy is false.

I think you are missing my point, and it probably is because I oversimplified my argument by agreeing with the original poster.  I am not talking about maximizing wins.  I don't think that will be Danny's motivation at all.  What I am saying is that I think if Danny cannot find either a superstar, or incredible values this summer, he will roll the cap space for another year, in order to maintain his flexibility, rather than using the cap space by signing mediocre players to long term deals. 

Basically the same thing the Nets did last year, when they signed/traded for one year placeholder players such as Kardashian, Okur, and Stevenson. 

It just so happens that the C's have some perfect placeholders already here.  KG and Ray are much more likely than younger players to take a 1 year deal, just because they might not get much more elsewhere.  And Green will be motivated to sign a one year deal, so he can prove himself and get his big, longterm deal the next summer. 

I know everyone wants to go "young", but unfortunately, going young is expensive.  It is very rare that you can ever sign a young player worth a darn to a short term contract.  The good ones are going to want to get paid.  And unless this team is able to find another way to get a star, they are better off maintaining flexibility as long as possible until they can find that star (or stars) to complement (or replace) Rondo.

Re: Danny's Plan (idea)
« Reply #46 on: March 18, 2012, 08:08:20 AM »

Offline OnyxCashew

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It just so happens that the C's have some perfect placeholders already here.  KG and Ray are much more likely than younger players to take a 1 year deal, just because they might not get much more elsewhere.  And Green will be motivated to sign a one year deal, so he can prove himself and get his big, longterm deal the next summer.  

I know everyone wants to go "young", but unfortunately, going young is expensive.  It is very rare that you can ever sign a young player worth a darn to a short term contract.  The good ones are going to want to get paid.  And unless this team is able to find another way to get a star, they are better off maintaining flexibility as long as ****sible until they can find that star (or stars) to complement (or replace) Rondo.


just cuz you sign placeholders doesnt mean they have to be good...give bad players big one year deals.

team next year could be

rondo / bradley / moore
pietrus / sasha / mo evans
pierce / green / rookie
jj hickson / jajuan johnson / rookie
kwame / stiemsma / rookie

that team would tank.

trade pierce and the team would be way worse, and even more flexible capwise.

Re: Danny's Plan (idea)
« Reply #47 on: March 18, 2012, 10:52:12 AM »

Offline clover

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It just so happens that the C's have some perfect placeholders already here.  KG and Ray are much more likely than younger players to take a 1 year deal, just because they might not get much more elsewhere.  And Green will be motivated to sign a one year deal, so he can prove himself and get his big, longterm deal the next summer.  

I know everyone wants to go "young", but unfortunately, going young is expensive.  It is very rare that you can ever sign a young player worth a darn to a short term contract.  The good ones are going to want to get paid.  And unless this team is able to find another way to get a star, they are better off maintaining flexibility as long as ****sible until they can find that star (or stars) to complement (or replace) Rondo.


just cuz you sign placeholders doesnt mean they have to be good...give bad players big one year deals.

team next year could be

rondo / bradley / moore
pietrus / sasha / mo evans
pierce / green / rookie
jj hickson / jajuan johnson / rookie
kwame / stiemsma / rookie

that team would tank.

trade pierce and the team would be way worse, and even more flexible capwise.

IMO ownership will never give Danny the green light to tank, and such a season, certainly intentionally, might send Doc back to the broadcasting booth or wherever.

Re: Danny's Plan (idea)
« Reply #48 on: March 18, 2012, 10:58:00 AM »

Offline Chris

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It just so happens that the C's have some perfect placeholders already here.  KG and Ray are much more likely than younger players to take a 1 year deal, just because they might not get much more elsewhere.  And Green will be motivated to sign a one year deal, so he can prove himself and get his big, longterm deal the next summer.  

I know everyone wants to go "young", but unfortunately, going young is expensive.  It is very rare that you can ever sign a young player worth a darn to a short term contract.  The good ones are going to want to get paid.  And unless this team is able to find another way to get a star, they are better off maintaining flexibility as long as ****sible until they can find that star (or stars) to complement (or replace) Rondo.


just cuz you sign placeholders doesnt mean they have to be good...give bad players big one year deals.

team next year could be

rondo / bradley / moore
pietrus / sasha / mo evans
pierce / green / rookie
jj hickson / jajuan johnson / rookie
kwame / stiemsma / rookie

that team would tank.

trade pierce and the team would be way worse, and even more flexible capwise.

IMO ownership will never give Danny the green light to tank, and such a season, certainly intentionally, might send Doc back to the broadcasting booth or wherever.

Agreed.  And I also don't think that is in the best interest of the franchise.  One of the hardest things to do is to build a winning culture, and you are really playing with fire if you purposely kill that culture in order to give your team a relatively low probability of a higher pick, hoping that the right player ends up coming out and is available at that pick, and can turn the team around.

Particularly with guys like Rondo on the team, that would be a recipe for disaster that could spiral out of control and end up blowing up the entire organization and putting us in the same position we were 15 years ago.

Re: Danny's Plan (idea)
« Reply #49 on: March 18, 2012, 11:30:50 AM »

Offline OnyxCashew

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It just so happens that the C's have some perfect placeholders already here.  KG and Ray are much more likely than younger players to take a 1 year deal, just because they might not get much more elsewhere.  And Green will be motivated to sign a one year deal, so he can prove himself and get his big, longterm deal the next summer.  

I know everyone wants to go "young", but unfortunately, going young is expensive.  It is very rare that you can ever sign a young player worth a darn to a short term contract.  The good ones are going to want to get paid.  And unless this team is able to find another way to get a star, they are better off maintaining flexibility as long as ****sible until they can find that star (or stars) to complement (or replace) Rondo.


just cuz you sign placeholders doesnt mean they have to be good...give bad players big one year deals.

team next year could be

rondo / bradley / moore
pietrus / sasha / mo evans
pierce / green / rookie
jj hickson / jajuan johnson / rookie
kwame / stiemsma / rookie

that team would tank.

trade pierce and the team would be way worse, and even more flexible capwise.

IMO ownership will never give Danny the green light to tank, and such a season, certainly intentionally, might send Doc back to the broadcasting booth or wherever.

Agreed.  And I also don't think that is in the best interest of the franchise.  One of the hardest things to do is to build a winning culture, and you are really playing with fire if you pur****ely kill that culture in order to give your team a relatively low probability of a higher pick, hoping that the right player ends up coming out and is available at that pick, and can turn the team around.

Particularly with guys like Rondo on the team, that would be a recipe for disaster that could spiral out of control and end up blowing up the entire organization and putting us in the same ****ition we were 15 years ago.

tanking doesnt have to be obvious.  you can still put a team of guys out on the floor who work hard and try to win.  you can just refuse to put a lotta money into the most competitive roster possible in the short term.

danny can just make moves this summer that maintain flexibility, like you said.  similar to how he did nothing at the trade deadline this season cuz it wouldnt be worth it, he doesnt have to spend money to stack the roster cuz it wont be worth it.  its not clearly tanking if youre not purposely blowing it up or playin bad young guys over better vets.

maybe spend some money on one young guy who might be available at a buy-low price, and then give big one year deals to veterans to make it look like youre not planning to tank.

rondo / bradley
mayo / pietrus
pierce / green
jamison / JJJ
kwame / stiemsma

^ actually that team might be too good, lol.

Re: Danny's Plan (idea)
« Reply #50 on: March 18, 2012, 12:44:16 PM »

Offline Celtics18

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It just so happens that the C's have some perfect placeholders already here.  KG and Ray are much more likely than younger players to take a 1 year deal, just because they might not get much more elsewhere.  And Green will be motivated to sign a one year deal, so he can prove himself and get his big, longterm deal the next summer.  

I know everyone wants to go "young", but unfortunately, going young is expensive.  It is very rare that you can ever sign a young player worth a darn to a short term contract.  The good ones are going to want to get paid.  And unless this team is able to find another way to get a star, they are better off maintaining flexibility as long as ****sible until they can find that star (or stars) to complement (or replace) Rondo.


just cuz you sign placeholders doesnt mean they have to be good...give bad players big one year deals.

team next year could be

rondo / bradley / moore
pietrus / sasha / mo evans
pierce / green / rookie
jj hickson / jajuan johnson / rookie
kwame / stiemsma / rookie

that team would tank.

trade pierce and the team would be way worse, and even more flexible capwise.

IMO ownership will never give Danny the green light to tank, and such a season, certainly intentionally, might send Doc back to the broadcasting booth or wherever.

Agreed.  And I also don't think that is in the best interest of the franchise.  One of the hardest things to do is to build a winning culture, and you are really playing with fire if you pur****ely kill that culture in order to give your team a relatively low probability of a higher pick, hoping that the right player ends up coming out and is available at that pick, and can turn the team around.

Particularly with guys like Rondo on the team, that would be a recipe for disaster that could spiral out of control and end up blowing up the entire organization and putting us in the same ****ition we were 15 years ago.

tanking doesnt have to be obvious.  you can still put a team of guys out on the floor who work hard and try to win.  you can just refuse to put a lotta money into the most competitive roster possible in the short term.

danny can just make moves this summer that maintain flexibility, like you said.  similar to how he did nothing at the trade deadline this season cuz it wouldnt be worth it, he doesnt have to spend money to stack the roster cuz it wont be worth it.  its not clearly tanking if youre not purposely blowing it up or playin bad young guys over better vets.

maybe spend some money on one young guy who might be available at a buy-low price, and then give big one year deals to veterans to make it look like youre not planning to tank.

rondo / bradley
mayo / pietrus
pierce / green
jamison / JJJ
kwame / stiemsma

^ actually that team might be too good, lol.

The above team would have a chance at the playoffs.  That's the thing about tanking; it's hard to build a tank team with good, young assets.  If those young players are good, they might actually throw off the whole tank scheme and win games. 

On the other hand, as Chris points out, if they accomplish the task of being as bad as possible, it can be really hard to shake the loser mentality that young players build up.

I know that tanking for picks is the fashionable method for building NBA franchises these days, but I'll never get behind it for my team.  I'll take five straight years of being an eighth seed and losing in the first round before I'll root for my team to race to the bottom. 
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SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: Danny's Plan (idea)
« Reply #51 on: March 18, 2012, 01:18:47 PM »

Offline OnyxCashew

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It just so happens that the C's have some perfect placeholders already here.  KG and Ray are much more likely than younger players to take a 1 year deal, just because they might not get much more elsewhere.  And Green will be motivated to sign a one year deal, so he can prove himself and get his big, longterm deal the next summer.  

I know everyone wants to go "young", but unfortunately, going young is expensive.  It is very rare that you can ever sign a young player worth a darn to a short term contract.  The good ones are going to want to get paid.  And unless this team is able to find another way to get a star, they are better off maintaining flexibility as long as ****sible until they can find that star (or stars) to complement (or replace) Rondo.


just cuz you sign placeholders doesnt mean they have to be good...give bad players big one year deals.

team next year could be

rondo / bradley / moore
pietrus / sasha / mo evans
pierce / green / rookie
jj hickson / jajuan johnson / rookie
kwame / stiemsma / rookie

that team would tank.

trade pierce and the team would be way worse, and even more flexible capwise.

IMO ownership will never give Danny the green light to tank, and such a season, certainly intentionally, might send Doc back to the broadcasting booth or wherever.

Agreed.  And I also don't think that is in the best interest of the franchise.  One of the hardest things to do is to build a winning culture, and you are really playing with fire if you pur****ely kill that culture in order to give your team a relatively low probability of a higher pick, hoping that the right player ends up coming out and is available at that pick, and can turn the team around.

Particularly with guys like Rondo on the team, that would be a recipe for disaster that could spiral out of control and end up blowing up the entire organization and putting us in the same ****ition we were 15 years ago.

tanking doesnt have to be obvious.  you can still put a team of guys out on the floor who work hard and try to win.  you can just refuse to put a lotta money into the most competitive roster possible in the short term.

danny can just make moves this summer that maintain flexibility, like you said.  similar to how he did nothing at the trade deadline this season cuz it wouldnt be worth it, he doesnt have to spend money to stack the roster cuz it wont be worth it.  its not clearly tanking if youre not purposely blowing it up or playin bad young guys over better vets.

maybe spend some money on one young guy who might be available at a buy-low price, and then give big one year deals to veterans to make it look like youre not planning to tank.

rondo / bradley
mayo / pietrus
pierce / green
jamison / JJJ
kwame / stiemsma

^ actually that team might be too good, lol.

The above team would have a chance at the playoffs.  That's the thing about tanking; it's hard to build a tank team with good, young assets.  If those young players are good, they might actually throw off the whole tank scheme and win games. 

On the other hand, as Chris points out, if they accomplish the task of being as bad as possible, it can be really hard to shake the loser mentality that young players build up.

I know that tanking for picks is the fashionable method for building NBA franchises these days, but I'll never get behind it for my team.  I'll take five straight years of being an eighth seed and losing in the first round before I'll root for my team to race to the bottom. 

yeh, that team might have a shot at the playoffs...or they might have some bad luck with injuries (two starters over 34) and struggle to win more than a third of their games.

either way, it works out. :D

Re: Danny's Plan (idea)
« Reply #52 on: March 23, 2012, 08:37:01 AM »

Offline CFAN38

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My guess is that the plan for next season is to basically repeat this year. I foresee the Cs resigning everyone who is willing to sign 1 year deals. (Bass, Pietrus may want long) I hope J Green is willing to sign 1 year to prove he is healthy. While sticking with the 1 year plan I would expect that we watch ever decent young to middle aged center sign to other teams for more $$ then they are worth. Then Danny will fill the rest of the team with the left over vets/guys who wanted long team deals and no one would commit (ex K Humphires last off season) and 3 rookies.

2012
Center: KG,Wilcox,Steimsma,
PF      J Green, JJJ, Rookie
SF      Pierce,Rookie
SG      Ray, Avery
PG      Rondo,Rookie

I would hope to see Avery push ahead of Ray to be the starting SG, JJJ prove to be a capable 8th man, and one of our rookies show the potential to be at least a solid starter in the next 3 years.

Then Danny will plan on being an aggressive player in 2013 free agency. This may very well include move Pierce at next years trade deadline.

2013 Free Agents (better list of unrestricted then 2012)

http://www.hoopsworld.com/2013-nba-free-agents

If Fords 1st mock draft is right then this plan has potential to get a boost for next season. Ford has Jared Sullinger sliding to pick #13. If this happens then Danny really needs to pull the trigger on our 2 first (and JJJ if needed) for Sullinger and a future 2nd. Sullinger would be the perfect Center to place in the starting lineup with rondo,ray,pierce, and KG. He could very realistically be a 12pt 10rb a game guy for the Cs as a rookie. Defensively he should give a the team a similare dynamic that BBD did except sullinger has more length and is a better rebounder, on offense he is a capable post scorer something we really haven't had since Big Al. This pick along with the resigning on Green, Bass, Pietrus and the further development of Avery would counter the big threes depreciation for next year and make the Cs a boarder line contender/very tough out in the playoffs.   
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Re: Danny's Plan (idea)
« Reply #53 on: March 23, 2012, 09:16:26 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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My guess is that the plan for next season is to basically repeat this year. I foresee the Cs resigning everyone who is willing to sign 1 year deals. (Bass, Pietrus may want long) I hope J Green is willing to sign 1 year to prove he is healthy. While sticking with the 1 year plan I would expect that we watch ever decent young to middle aged center sign to other teams for more $$ then they are worth. Then Danny will fill the rest of the team with the left over vets/guys who wanted long team deals and no one would commit (ex K Humphires last off season) and 3 rookies.

2012
Center: KG,Wilcox,Steimsma,
PF      J Green, JJJ, Rookie
SF      Pierce,Rookie
SG      Ray, Avery
PG      Rondo,Rookie

I would hope to see Avery push ahead of Ray to be the starting SG, JJJ prove to be a capable 8th man, and one of our rookies show the potential to be at least a solid starter in the next 3 years.

Then Danny will plan on being an aggressive player in 2013 free agency. This may very well include move Pierce at next years trade deadline.

2013 Free Agents (better list of unrestricted then 2012)

http://www.hoopsworld.com/2013-nba-free-agents

If Fords 1st mock draft is right then this plan has potential to get a boost for next season. Ford has Jared Sullinger sliding to pick #13. If this happens then Danny really needs to pull the trigger on our 2 first (and JJJ if needed) for Sullinger and a future 2nd. Sullinger would be the perfect Center to place in the starting lineup with rondo,ray,pierce, and KG. He could very realistically be a 12pt 10rb a game guy for the Cs as a rookie. Defensively he should give a the team a similare dynamic that BBD did except sullinger has more length and is a better rebounder, on offense he is a capable post scorer something we really haven't had since Big Al. This pick along with the resigning on Green, Bass, Pietrus and the further development of Avery would counter the big threes depreciation for next year and make the Cs a boarder line contender/very tough out in the playoffs.   
I wouldn't move picks or JJJ to get Sullinger if he slides to 13.  Very simple philosophy on drafting hyped big men that tends to be true most of the time: if a big man falls that far, there's a reason for it and it's either talent-related or mental/maturity issues. 

drafting big men that haven't been hyped tends to have better results in that they usually live up to or exceed expectations (as a rule of thumb).

If Sullinger slips to when the C's have their first pick, I'm sure they'd take him but if Danny was smart, he'd have to wonder if this guy is another Gerald Green at that point.  A "can't miss" prospect that no one wants.

C's will probably wind up with both picks in the teens which should enable them to get 2 good quality players.  With the team's need to reload on talent, that would be a good thing. 

Re: Danny's Plan (idea)
« Reply #54 on: March 23, 2012, 09:36:54 AM »

Offline Geo123

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My guess is that the plan for next season is to basically repeat this year. I foresee the Cs resigning everyone who is willing to sign 1 year deals. (Bass, Pietrus may want long) I hope J Green is willing to sign 1 year to prove he is healthy. While sticking with the 1 year plan I would expect that we watch ever decent young to middle aged center sign to other teams for more $$ then they are worth. Then Danny will fill the rest of the team with the left over vets/guys who wanted long team deals and no one would commit (ex K Humphires last off season) and 3 rookies.

2012
Center: KG,Wilcox,Steimsma,
PF      J Green, JJJ, Rookie
SF      Pierce,Rookie
SG      Ray, Avery
PG      Rondo,Rookie

I would hope to see Avery push ahead of Ray to be the starting SG, JJJ prove to be a capable 8th man, and one of our rookies show the potential to be at least a solid starter in the next 3 years.

Then Danny will plan on being an aggressive player in 2013 free agency. This may very well include move Pierce at next years trade deadline.

2013 Free Agents (better list of unrestricted then 2012)

http://www.hoopsworld.com/2013-nba-free-agents

If Fords 1st mock draft is right then this plan has potential to get a boost for next season. Ford has Jared Sullinger sliding to pick #13. If this happens then Danny really needs to pull the trigger on our 2 first (and JJJ if needed) for Sullinger and a future 2nd. Sullinger would be the perfect Center to place in the starting lineup with rondo,ray,pierce, and KG. He could very realistically be a 12pt 10rb a game guy for the Cs as a rookie. Defensively he should give a the team a similare dynamic that BBD did except sullinger has more length and is a better rebounder, on offense he is a capable post scorer something we really haven't had since Big Al. This pick along with the resigning on Green, Bass, Pietrus and the further development of Avery would counter the big threes depreciation for next year and make the Cs a boarder line contender/very tough out in the playoffs.   

Way to much to give up for Sullinger plus he's not a Center.  He's actually an udersized (6'8 or so) Power Forward.  I'm in Big 10 county and saw him play a ton this year and he just out muscled people in college which he won't do as much in the pros.  In college he averaged just 9 RPG so I don't see him averaging more in the Pros.  If he falls to us fine or if we have to give up an extra #2 maybe but not both #1's..

Re: Danny's Plan (idea)
« Reply #55 on: March 23, 2012, 09:37:39 AM »

Offline LooseCannon

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drafting big men that haven't been hyped tends to have better results in that they usually live up to or exceed expectations (as a rule of thumb).

So, players with low expectations tend to exceed expectations more than players with high expectations.
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Re: Danny's Plan (idea)
« Reply #56 on: March 23, 2012, 09:42:37 AM »

Offline CFAN38

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If Sullinger slips to when the C's have their first pick, I'm sure they'd take him but if Danny was smart, he'd have to wonder if this guy is another Gerald Green at that point.  A "can't miss" prospect that no one wants.


Sullinger is only going to slip for the same reasons Carlos Boozer was a 2nd round pick. Both slightly under sized for the traditional center position and slightly slow for the PF position, they both lack high light real athleticism and are not viewed as high potential prospects. With all that being said Sullinger is 6'9, very strong, has good feet and an over 7'1 wingspan to go along with a very developed offensive game. He should be a career boarder line all-star who in his prime averages around 17 pts and 10 rbs.

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Re: Danny's Plan (idea)
« Reply #57 on: March 23, 2012, 09:50:10 AM »

Offline CFAN38

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Way to much to give up for Sullinger plus he's not a Center.  He's actually an udersized (6'8 or so) Power Forward.  I'm in Big 10 county and saw him play a ton this year and he just out muscled people in college which he won't do as much in the pros.  In college he averaged just 9 RPG so I don't see him averaging more in the Pros.  If he falls to us fine or if we have to give up an extra #2 maybe but not both #1's..

He was measured with shoes on at the Adidas camp at 6'10 with a 7'1 wingspan. Rebounding numbers ussually transfer evenly or favorably from the NCAA to College Kevin love averaged 10.6 rebounds a game in college and is averaging 13 per this year (with a similare physical profile to Sullinger) Emeka Okafor's rebounding average from college to pros is almost identical. At 6'9- 6'10 265-275 he will still be able to muscle guys in the pros with a few hand full of exceptions most NBA bigs lack significant lower body strength, just looking at Sullinger I would field the guess that he would out squat 95% of the NBA's big men.
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Re: Danny's Plan (idea)
« Reply #58 on: March 23, 2012, 10:09:52 AM »

Offline Kane3387

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I think this has always been plan B for next year, but when Howard and Paul decided to not exercise their ETO, I think it became plan 1A.

Danny will still do whatever he can to turn the cap space into some stars (at this point, it would more likely be via trade), but if/when that fails, I do think he will try to carry over the cap space to the next summer.  He might try to sign one or two guys to smaller long-term deals, and will certainly go after a couple additions on one year contracts, but overall, I expect the core to be very close to the same next year as it was this.

I agree and I can also see us bringing in some Amnesty players. Magette, Lewis, etc. Put a bid in on them and hope we get them for really cheap.


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Re: Danny's Plan (idea)
« Reply #59 on: March 23, 2012, 10:25:53 AM »

Offline Geo123

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Way to much to give up for Sullinger plus he's not a Center.  He's actually an udersized (6'8 or so) Power Forward.  I'm in Big 10 county and saw him play a ton this year and he just out muscled people in college which he won't do as much in the pros.  In college he averaged just 9 RPG so I don't see him averaging more in the Pros.  If he falls to us fine or if we have to give up an extra #2 maybe but not both #1's..

He was measured with shoes on at the Adidas camp at 6'10 with a 7'1 wingspan. Rebounding numbers ussually transfer evenly or favorably from the NCAA to College Kevin love averaged 10.6 rebounds a game in college and is averaging 13 per this year (with a similare physical profile to Sullinger) Emeka Okafor's rebounding average from college to pros is almost identical. At 6'9- 6'10 265-275 he will still be able to muscle guys in the pros with a few hand full of exceptions most NBA bigs lack significant lower body strength, just looking at Sullinger I would field the guess that he would out squat 95% of the NBA's big men.

Then why does Ohio State list him at 6'9? 


http://www.ohiostatebuckeyes.com/sports/m-baskbl/mtt/osu-m-baskbl-mtt.html

I would think they (OSU) would be a little more accurate than an addidas camp, don't you... I've never heard any school list a player smaller than what he actually is in college, have you? Hes not a Center sorry, but an excellent PF prospect as mentioned by every single scouting service. 

Here's a couple of scouting reports showing him as a 6'9 Power forward (not a Center)

http://swishscout.com/?page_id=683

http://bloguin.com/articles/college/scouting-report-jared-sullinger.html