Author Topic: ESPN’s “CARMELO” projections are hot garbage  (Read 4925 times)

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Re: ESPN’s “CARMELO” projections are hot garbage
« Reply #15 on: June 19, 2018, 11:35:23 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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Carmelo loves guys who put up good  reb/ast/etc numbers but don't shoot well when they're young. It had very high hopes for Marcus Smart as well.

Re: ESPN’s “CARMELO” projections are hot garbage
« Reply #16 on: June 19, 2018, 11:52:10 AM »

Offline Erik

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From last year's rankings:

Kyrie Irving CATEGORY: "BORDERLINE ALL-STAR"  -- 5x allstar in 6 years. "Borderline"
Marcus Smart CATEGORY: FUTURE ALL-STAR
Al Horford CATEGORY: GOOD STARTER
Robert Covington CATEGORY: GOOD STARTER
DeMar DeRozan CATEGORY: AVERAGE STARTER


All you need to know about CARMELO.


Re: ESPN’s “CARMELO” projections are hot garbage
« Reply #17 on: June 19, 2018, 12:06:22 PM »

Online Roy H.

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Quote
Even that feels off, but it’s almost certainly due to RPM.

That explains a lot. RPM has always given some wacky results.


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Re: ESPN’s “CARMELO” projections are hot garbage
« Reply #18 on: June 19, 2018, 12:23:40 PM »

Offline pearljammer10

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Yeah that makes no sense.

Re: ESPN’s “CARMELO” projections are hot garbage
« Reply #19 on: June 19, 2018, 12:56:06 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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So I went over to the projections and I must say, I don't exactly understand what they are all about.  But I was curious how it rated Tatum and Brown and it looks like both are below Ball.  Brown is listed as a project, which I think at this point is a little harsh. 

Perhaps someone can explain what they see.

Re: ESPN’s “CARMELO” projections are hot garbage
« Reply #20 on: June 19, 2018, 01:11:33 PM »

Offline saltlover

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So I went over to the projections and I must say, I don't exactly understand what they are all about.  But I was curious how it rated Tatum and Brown and it looks like both are below Ball.  Brown is listed as a project, which I think at this point is a little harsh. 

Perhaps someone can explain what they see.

If you’re looking at Carmelo right now, the projections are still from the beginning of last year.  This article seems to have been written with updated data that is not yet public.  That Ball-Tatum comparison is based largely on draft status and college stats.

I would expect Tatum to have surpassed Ball when the updated version is released (but it could be closer than some here like).  I would imagine Brown will be lower, as the advanced stats really like Ball’s defense, and are a little more split on Brown.  It’s Ball’s defense (>2% block and steal rate, and a high defensive rebound rate) that makes the models like him so much. 

Re: ESPN’s “CARMELO” projections are hot garbage
« Reply #21 on: June 19, 2018, 01:59:27 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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So I went over to the projections and I must say, I don't exactly understand what they are all about.  But I was curious how it rated Tatum and Brown and it looks like both are below Ball.  Brown is listed as a project, which I think at this point is a little harsh. 

Perhaps someone can explain what they see.

If you’re looking at Carmelo right now, the projections are still from the beginning of last year.  This article seems to have been written with updated data that is not yet public.  That Ball-Tatum comparison is based largely on draft status and college stats.

I would expect Tatum to have surpassed Ball when the updated version is released (but it could be closer than some here like).  I would imagine Brown will be lower, as the advanced stats really like Ball’s defense, and are a little more split on Brown.  It’s Ball’s defense (>2% block and steal rate, and a high defensive rebound rate) that makes the models like him so much.
Thanks.  I was thinking that the results felt "old".  And I wouldn't be surprised to see exactly what you predict.  Tatum slightly above ball and both above brown.  That still might be closer to the general opinion, much as celtic fans think that brown is the next kawhi.

2019-20 “CARMELO” projections are in (Kemba #1 free agent bargain)
« Reply #22 on: July 15, 2019, 03:50:12 PM »

Offline action781

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I generally like 538's CARMELO ratings to some degree.  As I wrote on page 1, I know they aren't perfect as this is an insanely difficult task to begin with.  I still appreciate this quantification being attempted, as long as it should be understood to have some degree of inaccuracy as much predictive modeling often does, and I'm intrigued as to see how the model improves over time as more seasons of data get fed into it.  As for now, it just gives us something and something that is fairly objective rather than having fan bias built in.

A few weeks ago I was looking at last season's CARMELO ratings for Kemba and Kyrie and found Kemba to be slightly higher projected than Kyrie, which surprised me.  That along with other factors got me thinking about writing a post about looking into if Kemba is as good as Kyrie in a vacuum, which I never did.

Turns out in this year's edition, Kemba's 5 year projection is slightly higher than Kyrie's as well.  Also he is the rated the #1 best bargain of this season's free agency class (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-nba-free-agents-got-paid-too-much-and-too-little/).  I have to disagree terribly with that as it clearly underrates Kawhi.  It seems Kawhi's lack of games played in the regular season drives down his WAR though (4.6 reg season, 14.9 postseason last season), so maybe we'll all be pleasantly surprised in how much of an impact Kemba has here.
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Re: ESPN’s “CARMELO” projections are hot garbage
« Reply #23 on: July 15, 2019, 03:56:07 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

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It said fultz was a future all star lol

Re: ESPN’s “CARMELO” projections are hot garbage
« Reply #24 on: July 15, 2019, 04:12:25 PM »

Offline Diggles

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We realize its from June 18th 2018 right?      Still not the best work.  LOL
Diggles

Re: ESPN’s “CARMELO” projections are hot garbage
« Reply #25 on: July 15, 2019, 04:17:08 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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I mean Fultz's physical measurable and college stats were in fact typical of future all-star. Then he got the yips and forgot how to shoot. I'm not sure how you have a model predict that!