The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum

[Hoopvortex]

Smart will be the primary back-up PG quite simply because there is no one else worth playing there for anything more than spot minutes here and there. 

It's a valid argument, I think, and despite the fact that Smart was virtually always on the floor with a point guard last year. It will be interesting to see how this works out in November and December especially.

Clearly the coaching staff prefer Smart on the floor with a point guard. So "no one else worth playing there for anything more than spot minutes here and there", as you put it, is very much subject to change.

Three options emerge:

1) More minutes for Kemba. Sub-optimal, as the coaching staff have also demonstrated a consistent distaste for playing anyone long minutes - but a minute here or there would help to close the gap, and since Walker is so good off the ball, we'll certainly see plenty of Walker/Smart combinations.

2) Brad Wanamaker joins the rotation as eighth or ninth man. Wanamaker/Smart was rarely seen last year; when Wanamaker was in he mostly had the ball.  But he's an excellent 3-pt shooter (led the team!) so perhaps he could play "shooting guard"/secondary ballhandler with Smart.

3) Carsen Edwards ascends. I'm not going to go on about this guy again - bottom line, he's going to break into the rotation this year. Your prediction of spot minutes for him may well be accurate for November/December, however.  But this guy has got a golden opportunity to back up Kemba and be the eighth man.

I hate being wrong as much as the next self-anointed NBA scout, but Carsen is IT with defense. There, I said it.

And because I think Smart will be the primary back-up PG that opens up minutes for Langford that he wouldn't otherwise have because someone needs to play SG next to Smart (or Walker when Brown/Smart are on the bench). 

I doubt it. Your argument has logic to it, but even if, going against the precedent of the last few years, the coaching staff play Smart at "point guard" - by the same logic that means more minutes for Brown, Hayward, and Tatum.

Spot minutes for Langford, not rotation. Especially in November and December, he gets DNP-CD'd regularly.

Plus, the simple truth is lottery picks almost always get consistent playing time.  There is a reason they are a lottery pick. 

I think that your logic is backward, but in any case your "simple truth" is anything but simple. Lottery picks tend to go to the poorer teams; but not only is Boston top 4 (and was last year) in the conference, it is especially loaded at the wings.  I don't see how you get around that.

And, add to that the fact that he's post-surgical and needs major "surgery" on his jump shot as well.

I'd be very surprised if Langford doesn't get consistent minutes this year (not a ton of them, but consistently plays with a set role every game).

No, we won't see much of him.  The team is too interested in winning games. But stuff happens during a season, so who knows?

And I still keep coming back to the, if Tatum isn't the PF (or 2nd big or whatever you want to call that position) then who the heck is.

Tatum is not in any sense a big. Teams typically nowadays play two bigs or a big and a swing.

I think you've got the cart before the horse with these positions. The coaching staff are trying to win matchups, not fill pre-existing roles.

There is literally no one else that the team should feel good about playing in that spot for long periods of Tatum.  It is basically Tatum or a bunch of players that have no real business playing more than a few minutes at a time.

I'm aligned with you on putting Tatum on bigger players, and on starting him at the "Power Forward".

The alternatives, as I see it are:

1) Ojeleye. He's got the weight and lower body strength to guard bigger players; at 241 he's a true swing, in other words, who was backing up Marcus Morris (who played that role last year). He moved his game forward significantly last season, and there isn't anyone in front of him for this role; so if the coaching staff don't want Tatum guarding the likes of Al Horford and Blake Griffin, Semi is the logical choice. We will see plenty of Ojeleye.

2) Robert Williams III. We'd call him a big rather than a swing, but he's got the ability to cover a lot of ground, and he's got a future as a phenomenal rim protector in the bargain. Clearly the Boston brass see a brilliant future for him, and the fact that the current lineup has a big opening for him bodes well for his minutes. Rotation by the All-Star break.

3) Grant Williams is Ojeleye's primary competition.  I like this guy a lot.  He needs work on his body, but he's already moving well, plays physical, and has the tools to be a rotation swing.

Ainge and company had an outstanding draft, I think. But the outcomes for those draftees, at least this season, hinge more on opportunity than talent. The problem for Langford is opportunity; Edwards has a role waiting for him if he can take it; Williams less so; Waters may never get an opportunity for rotation minutes with the Celtics.

[Hoopvortex]

There is a big difference between a lottery pick playing on a ...lottery team, and a lottery pick playing on a "top 5-10" team.  The C's had a pick in the lottery, but they are not a lottery team.  They have the time to let their young guys learn before they are thrown in to swim or drown.  Lottery teams often don't have that luxury.

I agree. I would just add that the players in front of Langford are four starter-quality players, and that he's got physical stuff to deal with. It would be a real achievement for him to get in the rotation by the end of the season, and that only imaginable if there are injuries.

Langford was the last lottery pick in the draft lol, it's not like he's a top pick. The only set role he'll play is a cheerleader on the bench barring garbage time and injuries.

Good point, and some said he was a stretch at #14.  We didn't put Olynyk or Rozier (both also chosen in the teens) up on a pedestal.

Good points. I don't know if he was a stretch, but I like his game, what I've seen of it. Good handles, good left hand, and great feel around the basket as a finisher. Good movement, looks like he could defend at the next level.

[Hoopvortex]

  I think Kanter/tatum will rebound the ball WAY BETTER than Horford/morris did. 

That will be key.

I would also suggest that we watch opponents' eFG% and fouling; rebounding more misses is great, but only if they're missing more.

I think we run so much we force the other team to play smaller to match up.  Few teams will enforce their will the other way.  Philly may be one of them...

I think that you're right. And in fact a lot of early offense might be a good way to beat Philly's size.

Very good point, I'm going to be looking at tempo this season.

[Moranis]

Langford was the last lottery pick in the draft lol, it's not like he's a top pick. The only set role he'll play is a cheerleader on the bench barring garbage time and injuries.

Good point, and some said he was a stretch at #14.  We didn't put Olynyk or Rozier (both also chosen in the teens) up on a pedestal.

KO played 20 mpg as a rookie.  Rozier was about 8 and played in only half the games, but those teams had no clear role for a PG with IT and Smart ahead of him.

[Hoopvortex]

Langford was the last lottery pick in the draft lol, it's not like he's a top pick. The only set role he'll play is a cheerleader on the bench barring garbage time and injuries.

Good point, and some said he was a stretch at #14.  We didn't put Olynyk or Rozier (both also chosen in the teens) up on a pedestal.

KO played 20 mpg as a rookie.  Rozier was about 8 and played in only half the games, but those teams had no clear role for a PG with IT and Smart ahead of him.

Good points. Clearly the coaching staff are willing to play rookies.

Again I would make my point that opportunity is if anything more important than talent - and that's what's really in the way for Langford.

[Moranis]

Smart will be the primary back-up PG quite simply because there is no one else worth playing there for anything more than spot minutes here and there. 

It's a valid argument, I think, and despite the fact that Smart was virtually always on the floor with a point guard last year. It will be interesting to see how this works out in November and December especially.

Clearly the coaching staff prefer Smart on the floor with a point guard. So "no one else worth playing there for anything more than spot minutes here and there", as you put it, is very much subject to change.

Three options emerge:

1) More minutes for Kemba. Sub-optimal, as the coaching staff have also demonstrated a consistent distaste for playing anyone long minutes - but a minute here or there would help to close the gap, and since Walker is so good off the ball, we'll certainly see plenty of Walker/Smart combinations.

2) Brad Wanamaker joins the rotation as eighth or ninth man. Wanamaker/Smart was rarely seen last year; when Wanamaker was in he mostly had the ball.  But he's an excellent 3-pt shooter (led the team!) so perhaps he could play "shooting guard"/secondary ballhandler with Smart.

3) Carsen Edwards ascends. I'm not going to go on about this guy again - bottom line, he's going to break into the rotation this year. Your prediction of spot minutes for him may well be accurate for November/December, however.  But this guy has got a golden opportunity to back up Kemba and be the eighth man.

I hate being wrong as much as the next self-anointed NBA scout, but Carsen is IT with defense. There, I said it.

And because I think Smart will be the primary back-up PG that opens up minutes for Langford that he wouldn't otherwise have because someone needs to play SG next to Smart (or Walker when Brown/Smart are on the bench). 

I doubt it. Your argument has logic to it, but even if, going against the precedent of the last few years, the coaching staff play Smart at "point guard" - by the same logic that means more minutes for Brown, Hayward, and Tatum.

Spot minutes for Langford, not rotation. Especially in November and December, he gets DNP-CD'd regularly.

Plus, the simple truth is lottery picks almost always get consistent playing time.  There is a reason they are a lottery pick. 

I think that your logic is backward, but in any case your "simple truth" is anything but simple. Lottery picks tend to go to the poorer teams; but not only is Boston top 4 (and was last year) in the conference, it is especially loaded at the wings.  I don't see how you get around that.

And, add to that the fact that he's post-surgical and needs major "surgery" on his jump shot as well.

I'd be very surprised if Langford doesn't get consistent minutes this year (not a ton of them, but consistently plays with a set role every game).

No, we won't see much of him.  The team is too interested in winning games. But stuff happens during a season, so who knows?

And I still keep coming back to the, if Tatum isn't the PF (or 2nd big or whatever you want to call that position) then who the heck is.

Tatum is not in any sense a big. Teams typically nowadays play two bigs or a big and a swing.

I think you've got the cart before the horse with these positions. The coaching staff are trying to win matchups, not fill pre-existing roles.

There is literally no one else that the team should feel good about playing in that spot for long periods of Tatum.  It is basically Tatum or a bunch of players that have no real business playing more than a few minutes at a time.

I'm aligned with you on putting Tatum on bigger players, and on starting him at the "Power Forward".

The alternatives, as I see it are:

1) Ojeleye. He's got the weight and lower body strength to guard bigger players; at 241 he's a true swing, in other words, who was backing up Marcus Morris (who played that role last year). He moved his game forward significantly last season, and there isn't anyone in front of him for this role; so if the coaching staff don't want Tatum guarding the likes of Al Horford and Blake Griffin, Semi is the logical choice. We will see plenty of Ojeleye.

2) Robert Williams III. We'd call him a big rather than a swing, but he's got the ability to cover a lot of ground, and he's got a future as a phenomenal rim protector in the bargain. Clearly the Boston brass see a brilliant future for him, and the fact that the current lineup has a big opening for him bodes well for his minutes. Rotation by the All-Star break.

3) Grant Williams is Ojeleye's primary competition.  I like this guy a lot.  He needs work on his body, but he's already moving well, plays physical, and has the tools to be a rotation swing.

Ainge and company had an outstanding draft, I think. But the outcomes for those draftees, at least this season, hinge more on opportunity than talent. The problem for Langford is opportunity; Edwards has a role waiting for him if he can take it; Williams less so; Waters may never get an opportunity for rotation minutes with the Celtics.

How does Smart get minutes if he doesn't play at PG?  If Smart is basically exclusively at SG (and even at say 25 mpg), then how does Brown get his minutes.  Smart needs to play PG at least a fair amount to ensure the team's better players are actually playing.  And I absolutely believe the team would rather play Langford than Edwards.  There is a reason Langford went basically 20 spots higher in the draft.  If a rookie guard is going to get bigger minutes, it will be Langford (assuming health of course).   

[Hoopvortex]

How does Smart get minutes if he doesn't play at PG?  If Smart is basically exclusively at SG (and even at say 25 mpg), then how does Brown get his minutes.

Well, that's exactly what happened last season. Smart played virtually all his minutes paired with a "point guard". 

Whether that made him a "shooting guard" or not is a moot point, since you're claiming that it would limit Jaylen Brown's minutes.


It will be interesting, as I say, to see if the coaching staff change things up in the way that you're proposing. I have my doubts. I guess I'm man enough to check back in December or so. I would not claim that what you propose is impossible, just less likely.

Also as I say, the alternatives appear to be: more minutes for Kemba; Wanamaker; or Edwards - or, of course, a combination of those, which I think is most likely.

(I made the point above that the coaching staff are trying to win matchups, not fill slots, so it's worth an argument whether or not Smart played "shooting guard" or played "point guard" at all, in any meaningful sense.)

And I absolutely believe the team would rather play Langford than Edwards.  There is a reason Langford went basically 20 spots higher in the draft.  If a rookie guard is going to get bigger minutes, it will be Langford (assuming health of course).   

Once again, the issue is more opportunity than talent - but it sounds like you're also underestimating Carsen Edwards. Carsen will be a rotation player this year.

There was also a reason why Isaiah Thomas went #60 - or, to give NBA management teams their due, multiple reasons.

[mmmmm]

Langford was the last lottery pick in the draft lol, it's not like he's a top pick. The only set role he'll play is a cheerleader on the bench barring garbage time and injuries.

Good point, and some said he was a stretch at #14.  We didn't put Olynyk or Rozier (both also chosen in the teens) up on a pedestal.

KO played 20 mpg as a rookie.  Rozier was about 8 and played in only half the games, but those teams had no clear role for a PG with IT and Smart ahead of him.

Good points. Clearly the coaching staff are willing to play rookies.

Again I would make my point that opportunity is if anything more important than talent - and that's what's really in the way for Langford.

We should clarify that Olynyk played 20 mpg in a season that we tanked.   That was the year right after we traded away Pierce & Garnett and Rondo was out with a mangled knee and wasn't back until late in the season.   We finished with a miserable 25-57 record, got the 6th pick in the lottery and took Smart.

So KO getting minutes on that team fit the model of "rookies getting minutes on crap teams".

Given that most of us think we won't be a crap team this year, I'd still keep low expectations on how many NBA minutes Langford gets.   He's way down the depth chart at both wing and ball-handler, coming off injury, hasn't played in months and they need to figure out whether he really can be a play-maker for others.

I personally think he'll start the season in Portland, in order to work on his reconstructed shot and to work on whatever final role they envision for him.

[Hoopvortex]

Langford was the last lottery pick in the draft lol, it's not like he's a top pick. The only set role he'll play is a cheerleader on the bench barring garbage time and injuries.

Good point, and some said he was a stretch at #14.  We didn't put Olynyk or Rozier (both also chosen in the teens) up on a pedestal.

KO played 20 mpg as a rookie.  Rozier was about 8 and played in only half the games, but those teams had no clear role for a PG with IT and Smart ahead of him.

Good points. Clearly the coaching staff are willing to play rookies.

Again I would make my point that opportunity is if anything more important than talent - and that's what's really in the way for Langford.

We should clarify that Olynyk played 20 mpg in a season that we tanked.   That was the year right after we traded away Pierce & Garnett and Rondo was out with a mangled knee and wasn't back until late in the season.   We finished with a miserable 25-57 record, got the 6th pick in the lottery and took Smart.

So KO getting minutes on that team fit the model of "rookies getting minutes on crap teams".

Given that most of us think we won't be a crap team this year, I'd still keep low expectations on how many NBA minutes Langford gets.   He's way down the depth chart at both wing and ball-handler, coming off injury, hasn't played in months and they need to figure out whether he really can be a play-maker for others.

I personally think he'll start the season in Portland, in order to work on his reconstructed shot and to work on whatever final role they envision for him.

I'm with you on all of this, except that I doubt that how much of a playmaker for others Romeo can be is of primary importance, any more than it was for Brown or Tatum.

[mmmmm]

  And I absolutely believe the team would rather play Langford than Edwards.  There is a reason Langford went basically 20 spots higher in the draft.  If a rookie guard is going to get bigger minutes, it will be Langford (assuming health of course).   

Langford went 20 spots higher because his perceived upside is way higher.   But Edwards is currently a more finished product, older and with a lot more college experience and an NBA-ready ability (shooting) that can be easily deployed.

I don't know if I'd go so far as to say Edwards will get large minutes, but it's definitely easy to see him getting some minutes earlier on than Langford.   Bench shooting wing is written all over Edward's game right now.   With ball-handler upside, but he doesn't need to be a play-maker (yet) with his shot.   And with his wingspan, strength and foot speed he's a good perimeter defender, which will also get him on the floor.   So he can easily be inserted at the start of the 2nd period without a lot of uncertainty about what you are going to get.

If Langford shows good development through the Fall in Maine, I can see him cracking the rotation later in the year.   But he has the most near-term uncertainties due to his injury, his youth and less polished game.   He needs to work through all the changes being asked of him and get to a point where Brad has a clear sense of what he's going to get when put on the floor.

[mmmmm]

Langford was the last lottery pick in the draft lol, it's not like he's a top pick. The only set role he'll play is a cheerleader on the bench barring garbage time and injuries.

Good point, and some said he was a stretch at #14.  We didn't put Olynyk or Rozier (both also chosen in the teens) up on a pedestal.

KO played 20 mpg as a rookie.  Rozier was about 8 and played in only half the games, but those teams had no clear role for a PG with IT and Smart ahead of him.

Good points. Clearly the coaching staff are willing to play rookies.

Again I would make my point that opportunity is if anything more important than talent - and that's what's really in the way for Langford.

We should clarify that Olynyk played 20 mpg in a season that we tanked.   That was the year right after we traded away Pierce & Garnett and Rondo was out with a mangled knee and wasn't back until late in the season.   We finished with a miserable 25-57 record, got the 6th pick in the lottery and took Smart.

So KO getting minutes on that team fit the model of "rookies getting minutes on crap teams".

Given that most of us think we won't be a crap team this year, I'd still keep low expectations on how many NBA minutes Langford gets.   He's way down the depth chart at both wing and ball-handler, coming off injury, hasn't played in months and they need to figure out whether he really can be a play-maker for others.

I personally think he'll start the season in Portland, in order to work on his reconstructed shot and to work on whatever final role they envision for him.

I'm with you on all of this, except that I doubt that how much of a playmaker for others Romeo can be is of primary importance, any more than it was for Brown or Tatum.

I don't think it (whether he can be a playmaker) is critical for whether he gets minutes.  But Brad _knowing_ which role he can fill is critical.   Brad can't just throw 5 bodies on the floor randomly.  He has roles that need to be filled and a player needs to fill one of those roles.

[Hoopvortex]

I don't know if I'd go so far as to say Edwards will get large minutes, but it's definitely easy to see him getting some minutes earlier on than Langford.   Bench shooting wing is written all over Edward's game right now.   With ball-handler upside, but he doesn't need to be a play-maker (yet) with his shot.   And with his wingspan, strength and foot speed he's a good perimeter defender, which will also get him on the floor.   So he can easily be inserted at the start of the 2nd period without a lot of uncertainty about what you are going to get.

I guess I'm both more cautious short-term and more optimistic long-term about Edwards.

I don't think he's a wing; he's a ballhandler, and like Terry Rozier he'll be creating a lot of shots for himself. I've heard the term "lead guard" which is a nice old-fashioned expression that might apply to Edwards.

[mmmmm]

I don't know if I'd go so far as to say Edwards will get large minutes, but it's definitely easy to see him getting some minutes earlier on than Langford.   Bench shooting wing is written all over Edward's game right now.   With ball-handler upside, but he doesn't need to be a play-maker (yet) with his shot.   And with his wingspan, strength and foot speed he's a good perimeter defender, which will also get him on the floor.   So he can easily be inserted at the start of the 2nd period without a lot of uncertainty about what you are going to get.

I guess I'm both more cautious short-term and more optimistic long-term about Edwards.

I don't think he's a wing; he's a ballhandler, and like Terry Rozier he'll be creating a lot of shots for himself. I've heard the term "lead guard" which is a nice old-fashioned expression that might apply to Edwards.

While I agree Edwards can handle the ball, in Brad's nomenclature a scoring wing isn't just a spot-up shooter.  It really just means someone who normally starts off the ball.  In reality the roles of wing and ball-handler aren't exclusive.

The real distinction of importance is whether someone is primarily a play-maker (for others) or primarily a a finisher (i.e., someone who puts the ball in the basket).   Obviously some players (Lebron) are both, but to use a classic example, Rondo would be a play-maker and Ray Allen and Pierce would be finishers (though both in very different ways).

As Carsen's current ball-handling is oriented around his own shot-creation, he's currently a finisher, rather than a play-maker.   That said, I think he has upside to become a play-maker for others.