Low FTA numbers should be troubling, how will we do in the playoffs?

[Monkhouse]

So after last night, we are now ranked 30th in the league at averaging FTA at the line, tied dead last with the Orlando Magic, (correct me if my stats/math is wrong), at 19.1 FTA.

Those are glaringly awful numbers. Our Free throw % is at 81.2, which is pretty solid, considering it is ranked at the 3rd spot in the league.

But let's look at more deeper numbers...

In the first quarter, we average about 28.2 PPG, which is ranked 13th in the league, and we average 26.6 && 27.9 respectively in 2nd and 3rd. The 4th quarter is where we rank the best, coming in at 28.4 PPG, (3). But our defense in the 4th quarter also gives up about 26.4 PPG, which are slightly above average numbers.

That means generally, we do better in clutch situations, but if we're crunching the numbers, since we are operating in the middle in the 1st half, we're usually either behind our opponent by average of 2.3 PPG. That means that gives us such a very low slim margin of error, considering how awful we have been in the 3rd.

Let's take a glance at our top 5 in averaging FTA.

1) Kyrie Irving 3.5 FTA per 32.7 MPG
2) Jayson Tatum 3.1 FTA per 31.2 MPG
3) Jaylen Brown 2.6 FTA per 25.9 MPG
4) Gordon Hayward 2.4 FTA per 25.9 MPG
5) Marcus Morris 2.2 FTA per 27.8 MPG

Our top 5 offensive options on the Celtics, not a single one is in the top 40 for FTA, which is pretty alarming. I wonder how we'll manage to score consistently, if our 3P shot isn't falling, and we are also in the bottom tier of points in the paint.

Inspired by Reddit user:

Kyrie Irving is one of the deadliest shot makers in the league, terms of shooting, and finishing, but one blind spot of his offensive game that I've always felt compelled needed severe improvement: FTA.

These last 4 games:

L at Milwaukee: 41 MPG, 9-27 from field, 0-0 from the free throw line

L at Chicago: 41 MPG, 14-24 from field, 6-6 from the line

L at Toronto: 28 MPG, 3-10 from field, 0-0 from the line

L vs. Portland: 36 MPG, 14-24 from field, 0-0 from the line

Any suggestions or thoughts to improve this, or will we simply get better at drawing contact in the post-season? In 2017-2018, we averaged 23.5 FTA which are great numbers.

[PhoSita]

I assume the playoff formula will be the same as last year, only with Kyrie doing his thing in the fourth quarter.

But last year they were deeper than every team they faced.  Will that be true this year?  I don't think so.

Also last year -- they were extremely cohesive on defense and had a certain swagger that carried them in big moments.


Is that true this year?  I guess we'll find out if they flip the switch in the playoffs.  But it's getting harder and harder to believe they have that gear.

[Monkhouse]

I assume the playoff formula will be the same as last year, only with Kyrie doing his thing in the fourth quarter.

But last year they were deeper than every team they faced.  Will that be true this year?  I don't think so.

Also last year -- they were extremely cohesive on defense and had a certain swagger that carried them in big moments.


Is that true this year?  I guess we'll find out if they flip the switch in the playoffs.  But it's getting harder and harder to believe they have that gear.

I think aside from the 76ers and Raptors, I think we're still the deepest team. Bucks relatively stayed the same while adding extra depth, and Mirotic. (I think the Bucks missed out on not trading for Mike Conley.)

The problem is consolidating all of our talented roster to stick together, and create better opportunities versus iso/stagnant offense.

And the defensive cohesiveness is very true. We seem to lack that extra gear to play lock down defense, especially on fast breaks, (something we prevented last year extremely well).

The flipping switch part, I can rely on Irving for, but generally teams that flip the switch have more than one player. So I'm hoping the Jay Team steps it up.

[PhoSita]

I think the 3 man bench for the playoffs will have to be Brown, Hayward, Baynes.  We have to hope Baynes can stay healthy.


Rozier I don't trust to play at all.  Wanamaker for whatever reason doesn't have Brad's trust.

Semi, Yabu, Williams, Theis ... these guys are seriously flawed and should only get spot minutes depending on matchups.


It would be really nice if the team could somehow add a reliable veteran PG and a reliable veteran big man.  But it's probably too late.

[johnnygreen]

The thing that drives me nuts about this team is everything seems like an outside shot. They rarely seem to go to the paint. I’ll give it to Kyrie, he does attack the rim. But for some unexplainable reason, the referees rarely seem to call falls in Kyrie’s favor. Does he need to flop to get a call?

Do the refs have something against Tatum? It seems like every time he misses a shot (since he’s been in the league), he’s always making a gesture at the referees saying that he was fouled. Are the refs tired of his act and taking it out on the rest of the team?

[SparzWizard]

The C's will keep shooting 3's make or miss.

And when they miss, the losses get ugly. Brad Stevens philosophy simply does not believe in rebounding and playing inside.

[droopdog7]

It's a good observation but to answer your question, NO, there is not much we can do about it (without severely impacting another part of the offense).  Clearly it's not as simple as saying "attack" like fans love to do.  That mentality will also lead to many forced drives, more turnovers, more offensive fouls, and frankly, more pouting. 

Guy are what they are and asking them to do something they don't do regularly is a recipe for disaster (as if we aren't there already).

As I've said many time, the issue is that we don't have guys that regularly draw fouls (and that's an actual skill, not just a mentality).  Every single one of our players is a finesse offensive player.  Kyrie fades away, Tatum fades away, Al spots up, Morris pulls up, smart not good enough (and on and on).  Hell, even Jaylon, the guy with the most potential to draw fouls is starting to fadeaway.

So as with many thing, it's a player issue, not a scheme issue.

[BlackCeltic]

JB needs to not only start but also be a primary option. He is the best at driving through contact, but he rarely gets calls for some reason. Involve him early and force the refs to use their whistles.

[droopdog7]

The thing that drives me nuts about this team is everything seems like an outside shot. They rarely seem to go to the paint. I’ll give it to Kyrie, he does attack the rim. But for some unexplainable reason, the referees rarely seem to call falls in Kyrie’s favor. Does he need to flop to get a call?

Do the refs have something against Tatum? It seems like every time he misses a shot (since he’s been in the league), he’s always making a gesture at the referees saying that he was fouled. Are the refs tired of his act and taking it out on the rest of the team?

The refs don't have anything against tatum; he just a little more theatrical than most guys. Tatum just needs to man up and finish.

[droopdog7]

The thing that drives me nuts about this team is everything seems like an outside shot. They rarely seem to go to the paint. I’ll give it to Kyrie, he does attack the rim. But for some unexplainable reason, the referees rarely seem to call falls in Kyrie’s favor. Does he need to flop to get a call?

Do the refs have something against Tatum? It seems like every time he misses a shot (since he’s been in the league), he’s always making a gesture at the referees saying that he was fouled. Are the refs tired of his act and taking it out on the rest of the team?

The answer is no.  Kyrie not good at drawing fouls.  Guys like IT and Harden (for example) have mastered drawing fouls.  They go into contact and often can still finish.  Kyrie on the other hand twists and turns like the matrix to avoid contact.  Just not his game and no, Kyrie is not getting fouled because he falls.

[Monkhouse]

I think the 3 man bench for the playoffs will have to be Brown, Hayward, Baynes.  We have to hope Baynes can stay healthy.


Rozier I don't trust to play at all.  Wanamaker for whatever reason doesn't have Brad's trust.

Semi, Yabu, Williams, Theis ... these guys are seriously flawed and should only get spot minutes depending on matchups.


It would be really nice if the team could somehow add a reliable veteran PG and a reliable veteran big man.  But it's probably too late.

The thing that drives me nuts about this team is everything seems like an outside shot. They rarely seem to go to the paint. I’ll give it to Kyrie, he does attack the rim. But for some unexplainable reason, the referees rarely seem to call falls in Kyrie’s favor. Does he need to flop to get a call?

Do the refs have something against Tatum? It seems like every time he misses a shot (since he’s been in the league), he’s always making a gesture at the referees saying that he was fouled. Are the refs tired of his act and taking it out on the rest of the team?

I agree with your points Pho. I hope Brad Stevens stick with 9-10 man rotation with adjustments based on certain matchups.

I also would like to see less of Rozier... I know he did well last year, but this year Rozier has literally been the worse player on this team without a doubt from my eye test... He's rarely engaged on defense, gets blown by almost every possession... The only time I've truly enjoyed Rozier playing was against the 76ers.

As for johnnygreen, I do agree to a certain extent. My problem with Tatum is that he doesn't seem to use his body aggressively to draw contact, and probably attributed to the fact that he's also a sophomore, and hasn't established that player to ref relationship enough to garner those calls. But there are also times where he's attempting a shot, and he does the same thing Irving does, and watch the defender fly by as they try to contest, and dribble to the side. Most normal players would try to ball fake, and draw the contact for a easy 3 or 2 free throw attempts.

As for Irving, I think it is something commendable that he doesn't oversell his contact. He's the Anti-Harden, in that similar sense, that he rarely ever tries to sell off even the most minuscule contact. For instance, in the 4th quarter, Irving gave Nurkic a sweet ball up-fake which he bit on, and instead of drawing the foul, Irving simply steps to the right and dribbles around him.

From watching Irving for years, and trying to model my layup package like his, (TP to whoever gets my joke lol,) which is failing miserably. I've seen Irving and Carmelo, (2015-2018), and share similar ways of finishing through contact. They usually are rarely off-balance, use their body to angle for a better finish, and sometimes absorbs the contact well so so it seems like there wasn't much contact in the first place. Irving rarely sells the contact, which is one thing I can really respect 100% from Irving, even if it's hurting our team.

[mmmmm]

The thing that drives me nuts about this team is everything seems like an outside shot. They rarely seem to go to the paint. I’ll give it to Kyrie, he does attack the rim. But for some unexplainable reason, the referees rarely seem to call falls in Kyrie’s favor. Does he need to flop to get a call?

Do the refs have something against Tatum? It seems like every time he misses a shot (since he’s been in the league), he’s always making a gesture at the referees saying that he was fouled. Are the refs tired of his act and taking it out on the rest of the team?

This isn't really about the refs.   Yes, SOME refs are bizarrely inconsistent with other refs.  But overall, the Celtics don't get calls regardless of the refs.

The problem is twofold. 

a) We don't really drive all that much.  We are ranked 24th in the NBA in drives per game.

b) Even when we drive, we don't try to create contact.   In particular, Kyrie (responsible for the most of our drives) tries to avoid contact with the way he drives and shoots.   

Try to dig up some highlights of the way Isaiah Thomas would attack on a drive and compare them to highlights of Kyrie.   Thomas would purposely time the defender's body motion, anticipating the bump and then purposely play off the contact.  He'd use his off hand to get the shot off anyway if necessary and if he missed he'd go sink a couple of free throws.    Then net result was a season of historic scoring efficiency.

Kyrie, on his drives will use pull ups and dribble action to create space to try to get a clear shot off.  He actually ends up shooting these at excellent efficiency (because he isn't being jarred by bumps).  But he gets very little contact and far fewer trips to the FT line.   The net result is still elite scoring efficiency, but not quite up there with what Thomas was posting.

Now, Thomas' last season with us was a truly historic offensive showing and shouldn't be the benchmark for what is expected of Irving.  Irving's scoring efficiency this year overall has been fantastic.

BUT ... the lack of free throws is a problem.   It's the loss of an important side effect that really helps your team:    Foul  pressure.   

Drawing fouls on the other team is a huge weapon in of itself because it can put their players on the bench, messing up the other coach's rotations and helping you on both offense and defense.

[PhoSita]

Drawing fouls is important for another reason -- consistent scoring.

Relying on three pointers is fine.  It's efficient.  You want to generate a lot of three pointers for your offense and be able to hit them at least at an average rate.

But the thing about threes is you're going to miss way more than half the time.  So you're going to have stretches where you miss a lot of shots. 


Over a large sample that doesn't matter.  But mentally it can really wear on you if you miss a lot of shots in a row.  It can also result in the other team getting fast break points. 


There's value in seeing your score go up and the ball go in the basket.

You also need to be able to generate a shot that is more likely than not to go in when there's not much time left in the game and you're trailing by a small amount.


For all those reasons, being able to generate free throws is hugely valuable for the purpose of stabilizing your offense and calming your team down during stretches of cold shooting.

[Monkhouse]

The thing that drives me nuts about this team is everything seems like an outside shot. They rarely seem to go to the paint. I’ll give it to Kyrie, he does attack the rim. But for some unexplainable reason, the referees rarely seem to call falls in Kyrie’s favor. Does he need to flop to get a call?

Do the refs have something against Tatum? It seems like every time he misses a shot (since he’s been in the league), he’s always making a gesture at the referees saying that he was fouled. Are the refs tired of his act and taking it out on the rest of the team?

This isn't really about the refs.   Yes, SOME refs are bizarrely inconsistent with other refs.  But overall, the Celtics don't get calls regardless of the refs.

The problem is twofold. 

a) We don't really drive all that much.  We are ranked 24th in the NBA in drives per game.

b) Even when we drive, we don't try to create contact.   In particular, Kyrie (responsible for the most of our drives) tries to avoid contact with the way he drives and shoots.   

Try to dig up some highlights of the way Isaiah Thomas would attack on a drive and compare them to highlights of Kyrie.   Thomas would purposely time the defender's body motion, anticipating the bump and then purposely play off the contact.  He'd use his off hand to get the shot off anyway if necessary and if he missed he'd go sink a couple of free throws.    Then net result was a season of historic scoring efficiency.

Kyrie, on his drives will use pull ups and dribble action to create space to try to get a clear shot off.  He actually ends up shooting these at excellent efficiency (because he isn't being jarred by bumps).  But he gets very little contact and far fewer trips to the FT line.   The net result is still elite scoring efficiency, but not quite up there with what Thomas was posting.

Now, Thomas' last season with us was a truly historic offensive showing and shouldn't be the benchmark for what is expected of Irving.  Irving's scoring efficiency this year overall has been fantastic.

BUT ... the lack of free throws is a problem.   It's the loss of an important side effect that really helps your team:    Foul  pressure.   

Drawing fouls on the other team is a huge weapon in of itself because it can put their players on the bench, messing up the other coach's rotations and helping you on both offense and defense.

One could argue Isaiah's bully-ball driving and absorbing contact in mid air led to his downfall and demise of his body. I believe while Isaiah put up historical numbers, Irving's efficiency is still pretty top notch. I believe since Irving is a finesse player, he carves defenses, but tries to avoid lingering contact even when hit.

Drawing fouls is important for another reason -- consistent scoring.

Relying on three pointers is fine.  It's efficient.  You want to generate a lot of three pointers for your offense and be able to hit them at least at an average rate.

But the thing about threes is you're going to miss way more than half the time.  So you're going to have stretches where you miss a lot of shots. 


Over a large sample that doesn't matter.  But mentally it can really wear on you if you miss a lot of shots in a row.  It can also result in the other team getting fast break points. 


There's value in seeing your score go up and the ball go in the basket.

You also need to be able to generate a shot that is more likely than not to go in when there's not much time left in the game and you're trailing by a small amount.


For all those reasons, being able to generate free throws is hugely valuable for the purpose of stabilizing your offense and calming your team down during stretches of cold shooting.

I still don't understand the Gordon Hayward and Irving conundrum. Hayward takes 2.5 more extra shots per game when Irving doesn't play... He's also more aggressive, and gets 1 more FTA when Irving also sits...

We need Hayward, Tatum, and Brown to be far more aggressive when driving and trying to initiate contact.

[KGBirdBias]

See this is why I pay no attention to the stupid +/- stat. Let me watch the game and I can tell you how a player played or how a team won or lost. Its meaningless.

https://twitter.com/bball_ref/status/1101224295089532929?s=19