A different way to look at this Celtics season

[Walker Wiggle]

There's a lot of hand-wringing over the Celtics' disappointing regular season. Everybody's frustrated, but here's another way to take a step back and look at what's happening.

Many of the top teams in the East have all, to some extent, mortgaged their futures to compete NOW:

- The Sixers' future draft capital is basically exhausted, in order to get Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris. Their front office claims they intend to retain both, but most people believe they're most likely to lose butler and retain Harris on a max contract. You scared of Simmons, Embiid, and Harris going forward?
- The Raptors are gambling that they can retain Kawhi Leonard beyond this year. Otherwise, going into next year they'll have a 35-year-old Marc Gasol on a player option at $25m, Kyle Lowry in his final year making $33m, Serge Ibaka in his final year making $23m, and Normal Powell and Fred VanVleet making a combined $19m.
- The Bucks will have Middleton opting out this summer, and will likely have to sign him to a max deal. Brook Lopez, who's a major reason for their leap this year, will also be a free agent. They're likely coming back with much the same team next year IF they successfully retain both players, but their flexibility will be limited.

I think Ainge is probably looking at this situation and is happy to let these teams load up on this season, knowing that even if the Celtics can't match them in the playoffs this year, the NBA title probably isn't coming out of the East anyway. Right now 538 has the Raptors and Bucks' chances of winning the title at 15%. Meanwhile, the Warriors' title odds are at 58%. What are the odds either of those teams beat GSW this year in 7, you think? And what could Ainge have realistically done at the deadline to move the needle on the Celtics' title odds?

Whether we like it or not, Ainge is thinking long term, and is prioritizing winning titles, not competing in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2019. I'm sure he's frustrated with the way this roster has performed just like everyone else, but I never assumed this year was the franchise's principal focus.

Thoughts welcome.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

There's a lot of hand-wringing over the Celtics' disappointing regular season. Everybody's frustrated, but here's another way to take a step back and look at what's happening.

Many of the top teams in the East have all, to some extent, mortgaged their futures to compete NOW:

- The Sixers' future draft capital is basically exhausted, in order to get Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris. Their front office claims they intend to retain both, but most people believe they're most likely to lose butler and retain Harris on a max contract. You scared of Simmons, Embiid, and Harris going forward?
- The Raptors are gambling that they can retain Kawhi Leonard beyond this year. Otherwise, going into next year they'll have a 35-year-old Marc Gasol on a player option at $25m, Kyle Lowry in his final year making $33m, Serge Ibaka in his final year making $23m, and Normal Powell and Fred VanVleet making a combined $19m.
- The Bucks will have Middleton opting out this summer, and will likely have to sign him to a max deal. Brook Lopez, who's a major reason for their leap this year, will also be a free agent. They're likely coming back with much the same team next year IF they successfully retain both players, but their flexibility will be limited.

I think Ainge is probably looking at this situation and is happy to let these teams load up on this season, knowing that even if the Celtics can't match them in the playoffs this year, the NBA title probably isn't coming out of the East anyway. Right now 538 has the Raptors and Bucks' chances of winning the title at 15%. Meanwhile, the Warriors' title odds are at 58%. What are the odds either of those teams beat GSW this year in 7, you think? And what could Ainge have realistically done at the deadline to move the needle on the Celtics' title odds?

Whether we like it or not, Ainge is thinking long term, and is prioritizing winning titles, not competing in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2019. I'm sure he's frustrated with the way this roster has performed just like everyone else, but I never assumed this year was the franchise's principal focus.

Thoughts welcome.

Some good points.

I think Ainge is almost always thinking long term, and I do have a concern about that: It's like the can keeps getting kicked down the road—"Well, it didn't quite work out this year the way we'd hoped, but next year we'll have so-and-so back from injury," or "Next year we'll trade for so-and-so, and the young guys will be a year older," etc. I understand that a good GM is always trying to improve his team, but I'm starting to feel like "We'll get 'em next year!" is becoming this team's mantra.

[Sophomore]

That's a fair assessment of the risks facing other East contenders. Of course, the dominoes might fall their way. Say, if Toronto goes to the Finals or wins, does Kawhi really want to go to LA so badly that he'd leave? Of all the franchises, I like Toronto's play the most. Bold play, but also a really interesting risk to take.

Everybody is, I think, reasonably frustrated and disappointed by a team that we expected to do much, much better. It's troubling that the problems don't seem to be based on talent; whether the problem is with the coaching staff or the players' mentality I can't say, but they're clearly underperforming. I think they are also hurting their trade value, and some of our draft assets are a lot less valuable than we'd hoped - see the Kings pick and the Clippers pick.  I also start to see, for the first time, a real risk of losing Kyrie for nothing. A year ago, the team chemistry seemed to be incredible. Team would fight and claw and scratch, and they seemed to like each other. Increasingly it seems like nobody wants to be there.

Maybe Ainge can swing for the fences next year and connect, but that's going to require taking on big risk and he's going to have fewer chips to push into the pile than we all thought. The window could close right quick.

[KGBirdBias]

One thing that helps the Celtics. None of the teams have been as far as the Celtics as a group in the East because the Cavs were running through the East every year.

Toronto - Only Kawhi and Green went to Finals in recent years.
Bucks - No one has been deep in playoffs
Philly - Too young

The entire Celtics team knows what it's like to get to the ECF and how a series is different from game to game.

Can they win a 7th game on the road? Yes

[PhoSita]

Whether we like it or not, Ainge is thinking long term, and is prioritizing winning titles, not competing in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2019. I'm sure he's frustrated with the way this roster has performed just like everyone else, but I never assumed this year was the franchise's principal focus.

Thoughts welcome.

Ainge is thinking about the future -- I agree.

Ainge is focused on winning titles -- I agree.

This year was never about winning the title this year -- I agree.


That said:

How do you win titles?  -- You put together an exceptional collection of talent and figure out how that talent can translate into elite play on offense and defense.  Then you try to do that for multiple seasons and hope for some luck.

Ainge put together an exceptional collection of talent.


Kyrie, Hayward, Tatum, Brown, Horford -- My #1 goal for this season before the season started was to see these guys play together and find out just how good they could be.

I was very excited to see those guys play together, and I know I wasn't alone in that.


The season's been an utter failure in that respect, not because we didn't get to see those guys play together, but because we did, and they stunk.  They weren't merely not great.  They weren't mediocre.  They were B.A.D.

Why were they bad?

Well, Hayward was recovering from injury.  OK.

Jaylen Brown had a slow start to the season.  OK.

Tatum was burdened by unrealistic expectations from his very good rookie season.  OK.

There's a cloud over the team due to Kyrie's impending free agency.  OK.

The possibility of the AD trade on the horizon has everybody thinking about next year instead of the present.  OK.


It feels like a lot of that stuff should have been figured out by now, with the exception of the Kyrie and AD stuff.

I can't help feeling that maybe the core guys on this team just don't fit together very well. 

That conclusion is very, very troubling.

It means that, whether or not the Celts can trade for AD, the current guys on the team probably aren't the answer.  These guys are going to cost way too much if they can't all share the floor.



Maybe the answer is trade for AD, re-sign Kyrie, and more or less start over with the rest of the supporting cast.  If you have a perennial All-Star, top 10 offensive talent and you pair him with an MVP caliber two-way talent, that should be the start of a championship recipe.

But I don't know man.  The atmosphere around this team this year has been so unpleasant.  They've never really looked like they enjoy being on a team together.  If you swap out a lot of the pieces, maybe that changes.  But then you're starting all over in terms of continuity.


To me, in a non-Warriors world, the best way to contend is to build a well balanced, solid two way team around a couple of star talents, and then try to be among the best 4-5 teams in the league for 5+ years.  You then hope that one of those years, the team can catch some breaks, get hot at the right time, and win a title.


But these days it seems every team feels like they can only contend if they pull off a Warriors-style coup.  You have to engineer a lineup with 4-5 All-Stars.  I think Ainge is trying to accomplish something like that.

Trying to build that way ends up feeling very All-or-Nothing, such that the day to day process of just putting together a team and playing night to night feels kind of empty.  It's kind of a joyless exercise.



I don't know.  I'm shook.  Is this headed toward a title?  What will the team look like when we get there? 

I just want a team I like that I can enjoy watching on a regular basis.  Constantly looking toward the next blockbuster move that could turn the team into a juggernaut that will win because it's simply more talented than everybody else feels ... toxic.  Like it poisons what the fan experience is supposed to be about.  At least if you actually like basketball, as opposed to the star drama and the rumors.

[Walker Wiggle]

Comments on the original post were excellent. Some additional thoughts:

- I don't think Ainge is permanently in "wait 'til next year" mode. I just think he calculates the costs and benefits of investing in the current year. I would guess that he was presented with opportunities to improve the roster this year, but thought the better of it, because a) he's saving his ammunition for the AD negotiations this summer and doesn't want to compromise his negotiating position there; and b) he figured that even in a best case scenario, the Celtics would leapfrog the Bucks and Raptors only to still be heavy underdogs in the Finals.

- Don't extrapolate what's happening this year to the future. Ainge has the capital to change the team as he sees fit. And even if he doesn't, players grow as they age. Irving is only 26 and growing as a leader. Brown and Tatum are the equivalent of basketball toddlers. As these guys grow up, the chemistry and cohesiveness of the team should improve on its own. If it doesn't, the team has options.

[gpap]

There's a lot of hand-wringing over the Celtics' disappointing regular season. Everybody's frustrated, but here's another way to take a step back and look at what's happening.

Many of the top teams in the East have all, to some extent, mortgaged their futures to compete NOW:

- The Sixers' future draft capital is basically exhausted, in order to get Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris. Their front office claims they intend to retain both, but most people believe they're most likely to lose butler and retain Harris on a max contract. You scared of Simmons, Embiid, and Harris going forward?
- The Raptors are gambling that they can retain Kawhi Leonard beyond this year. Otherwise, going into next year they'll have a 35-year-old Marc Gasol on a player option at $25m, Kyle Lowry in his final year making $33m, Serge Ibaka in his final year making $23m, and Normal Powell and Fred VanVleet making a combined $19m.
- The Bucks will have Middleton opting out this summer, and will likely have to sign him to a max deal. Brook Lopez, who's a major reason for their leap this year, will also be a free agent. They're likely coming back with much the same team next year IF they successfully retain both players, but their flexibility will be limited.

I think Ainge is probably looking at this situation and is happy to let these teams load up on this season, knowing that even if the Celtics can't match them in the playoffs this year, the NBA title probably isn't coming out of the East anyway. Right now 538 has the Raptors and Bucks' chances of winning the title at 15%. Meanwhile, the Warriors' title odds are at 58%. What are the odds either of those teams beat GSW this year in 7, you think? And what could Ainge have realistically done at the deadline to move the needle on the Celtics' title odds?

Whether we like it or not, Ainge is thinking long term, and is prioritizing winning titles, not competing in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2019. I'm sure he's frustrated with the way this roster has performed just like everyone else, but I never assumed this year was the franchise's principal focus.

Thoughts welcome.

Some good points.

I think Ainge is almost always thinking long term, and I do have a concern about that: It's like the can keeps getting kicked down the road—"Well, it didn't quite work out this year the way we'd hoped, but next year we'll have so-and-so back from injury," or "Next year we'll trade for so-and-so, and the young guys will be a year older," etc. I understand that a good GM is always trying to improve his team, but I'm starting to feel like "We'll get 'em next year!" is becoming this team's mantra.

One of my gripes with Ainge. Since the '10 season when we lost in the finals, it seems like it's always about "next season."

It's almost as if Ainge never fully invests in the present team because something better "might come up next year."

I think it's time to throw that crap out the window and go all-in.  If not now, then when?

Clearly this season is a wash but beyond this year, when is the "right time" going to come?

[Triplenickle]

Danny really kept this group together for the big trade. He definitely will go after Davis, and I believe he'll be here.

I just didn't wanna give up Tatum.

[Monkhouse]

There's a lot of hand-wringing over the Celtics' disappointing regular season. Everybody's frustrated, but here's another way to take a step back and look at what's happening.

Many of the top teams in the East have all, to some extent, mortgaged their futures to compete NOW:

- The Sixers' future draft capital is basically exhausted, in order to get Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris. Their front office claims they intend to retain both, but most people believe they're most likely to lose butler and retain Harris on a max contract. You scared of Simmons, Embiid, and Harris going forward?
- The Raptors are gambling that they can retain Kawhi Leonard beyond this year. Otherwise, going into next year they'll have a 35-year-old Marc Gasol on a player option at $25m, Kyle Lowry in his final year making $33m, Serge Ibaka in his final year making $23m, and Normal Powell and Fred VanVleet making a combined $19m.
- The Bucks will have Middleton opting out this summer, and will likely have to sign him to a max deal. Brook Lopez, who's a major reason for their leap this year, will also be a free agent. They're likely coming back with much the same team next year IF they successfully retain both players, but their flexibility will be limited.

I think Ainge is probably looking at this situation and is happy to let these teams load up on this season, knowing that even if the Celtics can't match them in the playoffs this year, the NBA title probably isn't coming out of the East anyway. Right now 538 has the Raptors and Bucks' chances of winning the title at 15%. Meanwhile, the Warriors' title odds are at 58%. What are the odds either of those teams beat GSW this year in 7, you think? And what could Ainge have realistically done at the deadline to move the needle on the Celtics' title odds?

Whether we like it or not, Ainge is thinking long term, and is prioritizing winning titles, not competing in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2019. I'm sure he's frustrated with the way this roster has performed just like everyone else, but I never assumed this year was the franchise's principal focus.

Thoughts welcome.

TP for the optimism.

East teams gearing up this year is cute. You never know what will happen with GSW or KD. NYK/LAL could also attract top level talent which could open up the banner next year for both conferences.

[Walker Wiggle]

I think it's time to throw that crap out the window and go all-in.  If not now, then when?

After Durant leaves GSW, and at the same time Tatum is entering his prime or you have Anthony Davis.

[PhoSita]

I think it's time to throw that crap out the window and go all-in.  If not now, then when?

For one thing I don't really like the notion of going "all-in" unless your core star players are old enough that you think they might experience a sudden decline in any given season.

For another, I would say the time to go "all-in" would be at a time when there isn't a team in Oakland featuring Curry, Klay, and Durant, not to mention Draymond and Cousins.

[petbrick]

Comments on the original post were excellent. Some additional thoughts:

- I don't think Ainge is permanently in "wait 'til next year" mode. I just think he calculates the costs and benefits of investing in the current year. I would guess that he was presented with opportunities to improve the roster this year, but thought the better of it, because a) he's saving his ammunition for the AD negotiations this summer and doesn't want to compromise his negotiating position there; and b) he figured that even in a best case scenario, the Celtics would leapfrog the Bucks and Raptors only to still be heavy underdogs in the Finals.

- Don't extrapolate what's happening this year to the future. Ainge has the capital to change the team as he sees fit. And even if he doesn't, players grow as they age. Irving is only 26 and growing as a leader. Brown and Tatum are the equivalent of basketball toddlers. As these guys grow up, the chemistry and cohesiveness of the team should improve on its own. If it doesn't, the team has options.

Agreed. The team overachieved last year and two of the star players in that are dealing with the fact that, as it turns out, their second and third years in the league have (predictably) been slightly rockier than expected. Growth isn't linear when it comes to athletes, despite how many people love to hang narratives on it.

[CelticSooner]

The goal before the season was to at worst win the East don’t let a potential AD trade change that thinking. The fact of the matter is as of now this roster has blown up in Ainge’s face for whatever reasons that may be. Ainge putting almost all his eggs in the basket on Kyrie will determine whether this rebuild worked or not. It was a gamble worth taking considering the alternative but it was a gamble none the less.

Overall this season has been a huge downer, I’ve boxscore watched this team almost as much as CBS’ first team in Boston. A playoff run would be nice but banking on this team to flip a switch I will not. The East is so much better than it has been previously and HCA will play a factor.

[Csfan1984]

I mentioned the big picture of what went down at deadline was good for the C's. BUT this season it's self is not good nor does it help player recruitment.

[ConnerHenry]

So refreshing to read positivity on the boards, TP!