Predicting the rotation against the Pistons

[WedmanIsMyHero]

Doc's rotations/substitutions can be pretty frustrating to lots of fans.  So lets make a game out of it.  What's your prediction for how Doc uses the bench in Game 1 and Game 2 against the Pistons?  Additionally, do you agree with that decision? 

Based on Doc's "hot hand" theory of substitutions (as opposed to playing the averages, sticking with people who got your there, or one of the other ways to conceptualize making substitutions), seems like Brown and House should get a ton of time.  However, two concerns:

1. Brown is still an old guy -- not clear he could actually play 20 minutes a game.  I hope Doc does not run him into the ground.  However, we know Doc does not want to play Powe against the Pistons.  He played Powe for 2 minutes total against the Pistons all year.  Now 2 of those games were from before Powe was getting consistent minutes, but one of them was after and Doc still did not play him.  BBD got some minutes against the Pistons, including one of his best regular season games of the year.  So while overall averages would favor playing Powe over Davis, Doc's track record v. the Pistons would suggest otherwise.

2. Will Doc really not want to give Sam-I-Am another chance.

So what do people think?  What IS Doc going to do?  And what do you think he WILL do?

[coco]

God I hope we are done -for the moment- with the Sam-I-Am experiment.  Lets play EHouse, if it doesn't work, then give Sam a shot....but for heavens sake, do not play Sam just because what he's done 10yrs ago.  It is 2008, and you've got to play whoever is ready.  This is not a popularity contest....

[Hrvoje]

So, who is going to guard Rasheed? I don't see anyone in our team capable of that.

[fairweatherfan]

So, who is going to guard Rasheed? I don't see anyone in our team capable of that.

Yeah, it's not like we have the Defensive Player of the Year at the same position, or anything.  Coming out that far is a little out of KG's comfort zone, but he's more than capable of doing it.  The flip side of the question would be who is KG going to guard, if not Sheed?  He'd be wasted on McDyess/Maxiell, and then who does Perk guard?


I think we'll see Eddie out there as the first guard off the bench, and lots of PJ and Posey; Baby and Powe will be given some shots and their PT will be adjusted accordingly.  If Eddie goes cold we'll see some Sam - I'm sure he hasn't burned through all his chances yet, unless Eddie tears it up regularly from here on out.

[wdleehi]

Expect a lot of Perkins.


He averages 11 rebounds a game against Detroit. 

[Who]

I think it'll be pretty similar to what we've seen so far

One guard. One wing. Two bigs.

Eddie should be the guard and likely will be. Posey will be the wing. PJ will be the fourh big in the rotation. I think those three are safe and set.

The third big in the rotation? The primary big off the bench? Probably Powe. Powe's play has been the only real question mark and BBD provides an intruiging counter option. I think Powe will get the first shot but if his play doesn't improve he could lose it pretty fast.

[Hrvoje]

So, who is going to guard Rasheed? I don't see anyone in our team capable of that.

Yeah, it's not like we have the Defensive Player of the Year at the same position, or anything.  Coming out that far is a little out of KG's comfort zone, but he's more than capable of doing it.  The flip side of the question would be who is KG going to guard, if not Sheed?  He'd be wasted on McDyess/Maxiell, and then who does Perk guard?

LOL

I intentionally put a question that way so I would get a quick reply...
My problem is not when Rasheed is playing near the basket - Rasheed makes lot of shots outside so who is going to guard him there, we need Garnett in the post.

[Roy Hobbs]

Hopefully, Doc does something similar to Game 7, in terms of the players who play.  Perk, KG, Pierce, Ray, Rondo, House, Posey, Brown, Powe.  That works for me.

I expect, however, that we'll see the return of Sam and a healthy dose of BBD, as well.

[Who]

Expect a lot of Perkins.

He averages 11 rebounds a game against Detroit. 

Perk did have that nice 20 rebound game to pad those averages. 6.5rpg in the other two.

Minutes wise he played 35, 27, and 33 (20 board game). Much bigger minutes than normal, be nice if that continues.

Good matchup for Perk. McDyess doesn't attack that much on offense, is smaller, doesn't really limit Perk in anyway.

[Hrvoje]

Perkins

He was at the begining of the season my most disliked player.

As the the season gone by, he has begun to play better and better. He really impressed me. But recently he has been poor IMO. He played like he had an basketball IQ of a 15-year old. Remeber that 2 awful passes-turnovers last game?

And what really bothers me - He complains about every single call! Just shut up and play the game!
Oh, I also forgot about tons of fouls and turnovers by made by moving while trying to set a screen 

[Ersatz]

Perk needs to get lots of defensive rebounds against the Pistons cuz Garnett is playing so far away from the basket guarding Sheed. That's why, despite Big Baby's playing more during the three games against the Pistons, I still like Powe, as he's a smarter, better rebounder in Perkins's place.

[Redz]

How Doc will determine rotation for Detroit series?



My guess is as good as yours.

[Vermont Green]

I don't see Eddie House playing all that much.  He can't cover either of Detroit's PGs (unfortunately).  He'll be back to the situational substitution when they need a 3 at the end of the quarter.  Tony Allen will be needed to defend Rip and Billups some. BBD is not as undersized against Detroit as he was against Cle so he will get time.  Our bench is actually deeper against Detroit because of match-ups than against Cle.  Our undersized bigs (BBD and Powe) should be more effective.  PJ may play less because Det is smaller but quicker up front (more shooting range in Det Bigs than Cle).  I don't think PJ can stay with Wallace, McDyess, or Maxiell and does not play well enough to create a mis-match for them due to his length.

[radiodavidm]

BBD was the key factor in our win at Detroit this season - pulling down some huge offensive boards and making some key putbacks.  I wouldn't be surprised if we saw more of him in this series.

[Bahku]

BBD was the key factor in our win at Detroit this season - pulling down some huge offensive boards and making some key putbacks.  I wouldn't be surprised if we saw more of him in this series.

I agree, Radio ... Big Baby was huge against Detroit, and I hope Doc takes that into account, (though he usually doesn't follow such "obvious" patterns). Their Bigs are not fast enough to keep up with Glen in the post. In fact, speed is the key to beating this team, period. We've got to run against Detroit, and run consistently ... if we do, I think we'll have an easier time than most think. Here's your first Tommy Point, by the way!