Your Quasi-Realistic Dream Trade Deadline

[Somebody]

By what metric ?

Smart is a 2 time all defense and is going to be in a conversation there for a long time coming. Collins is in 0 discussions for anything. He has no playoffs experience. His team doesn't want him.

Every analyst ranking Ive seen puts Smart over Collins.

20 and 8 guys on a bad team are a dime a dozen. I'm not sure that Robert Williams doesn't put up those number in Atlanta. Smart is a special player.

And we give up 4 picks ??

It's just bad sorry.

Lol, c'mon, this isn't even pretending to be a genuine representation of Collins' ability. If you think Robert Williams is capable of putting up 20/9/2 on 58/38/79 shooting splits over 3 years then bully for you. Collins would have been in All-Star conversations last year if he'd been healthy. Last season he was better as a roll-man than AD, Rudy Gobert and Bam Adebayo.
Also, what rankings are you referring to? SI has Collins 9 places higher than Smart, B/R had Collins at 45, Smart at 75. Then others had basically those same results, except flipped in Smart's favour. There's absolutely no consensus - it's just whichever you prefer, offence or defence. Given both our offence and defence suck, I'd rather the young guy.

You say 20/8 bigs are a dime a dozen? I say show me. Meanwhile, I'll show you how defensive specialist guards with limited / questionable offensive outputs are dime a dozen. Smart, Beverley, Bledsoe, Murray, Roberson, AB, Tony Allen, Thabo Sefalosha, McConnell, Josh Richardson, Thybulle, Danny Green, Lonzo Ball, Kris Dunn, Gary Harris, Lu Dort, Garrett Temple, and so on. There are a heap of guards that come through the league with elite defensive ability and dodgy offence. There aren't many bigs who can give you 20/10 while scraping 60/40/80 shooting splits.
Not all of these guys are particularly close to Smart on defence, but some have better offensive abilities, and some have contributed to more winning teams.

When was the last time a championship team had an All-Defensive guard? I'll tell you - it was Kobe (a pretty nifty offensive player) in 09-10. Defensive monster guards simply are not as valuable in the modern NBA as they were in times gone by. They've never been as valuable as defensive monster bigs, but I think the gap is bigger today than it was 15 years ago. I know Smart brings a lot of intangibles and grit, and we love him for that, but those things aren't as valuable when our team is garbage.

The downside is that Collins will demand a lot of money given his ability and production. Given we were willing to pay Hayward, not sure if this is an issue for us. I think Smart is overrated by some here, and underrated by others. His loss would be bad for chemistry for sure, but he's probably our 4th best player.

None of the guards you mentioned could replicate Smart's smothering defence from 1-3 + some 4s. Also Kobe was getting All-Defensive selections by reputation at that point - he was around average on that end in the late 2000s.

Now I don't think that Collins and Smart are super far off as players, but I don't think we should be casually throwing Smart into trade ideas just because of some online list with a panel of voters who're dodgier than 80s NBA award voters.

[Moranis]

By what metric ?

Smart is a 2 time all defense and is going to be in a conversation there for a long time coming. Collins is in 0 discussions for anything. He has no playoffs experience. His team doesn't want him.

Every analyst ranking Ive seen puts Smart over Collins.

20 and 8 guys on a bad team are a dime a dozen. I'm not sure that Robert Williams doesn't put up those number in Atlanta. Smart is a special player.

And we give up 4 picks ??

It's just bad sorry.

Lol, c'mon, this isn't even pretending to be a genuine representation of Collins' ability. If you think Robert Williams is capable of putting up 20/9/2 on 58/38/79 shooting splits over 3 years then bully for you. Collins would have been in All-Star conversations last year if he'd been healthy. Last season he was better as a roll-man than AD, Rudy Gobert and Bam Adebayo.
Also, what rankings are you referring to? SI has Collins 9 places higher than Smart, B/R had Collins at 45, Smart at 75. Then others had basically those same results, except flipped in Smart's favour. There's absolutely no consensus - it's just whichever you prefer, offence or defence. Given both our offence and defence suck, I'd rather the young guy.

You say 20/8 bigs are a dime a dozen? I say show me. Meanwhile, I'll show you how defensive specialist guards with limited / questionable offensive outputs are dime a dozen. Smart, Beverley, Bledsoe, Murray, Roberson, AB, Tony Allen, Thabo Sefalosha, McConnell, Josh Richardson, Thybulle, Danny Green, Lonzo Ball, Kris Dunn, Gary Harris, Lu Dort, Garrett Temple, and so on. There are a heap of guards that come through the league with elite defensive ability and dodgy offence. There aren't many bigs who can give you 20/10 while scraping 60/40/80 shooting splits.
Not all of these guys are particularly close to Smart on defence, but some have better offensive abilities, and some have contributed to more winning teams.

When was the last time a championship team had an All-Defensive guard? I'll tell you - it was Kobe (a pretty nifty offensive player) in 09-10. Defensive monster guards simply are not as valuable in the modern NBA as they were in times gone by. They've never been as valuable as defensive monster bigs, but I think the gap is bigger today than it was 15 years ago. I know Smart brings a lot of intangibles and grit, and we love him for that, but those things aren't as valuable when our team is garbage.

The downside is that Collins will demand a lot of money given his ability and production. Given we were willing to pay Hayward, not sure if this is an issue for us. I think Smart is overrated by some here, and underrated by others. His loss would be bad for chemistry for sure, but he's probably our 4th best player.

I agree with you, however I think there are more players averaging 20/8 than you think

Sabonis, Vucevic, Antetokounmpo, Jokic, Randle, Embiid, Doncic, Davis, James

Adebayo is 0.1 ppg away and Harris and Siakam are both 0.3 rpg away

Collins is also only at 18.2 and 7.6 on the year (though obviously did it last year).

There are a bunch of other players that have the ability to do it.  Ayton, for example, last year eclipsed what Collins is doing this year.

I'd absolutely swap Smart for Collins.  wouldn't give it a second thought as Collins is better, plays a position that is harder to fill, and is still very much on the up swing.  Smart is a role player, Collins can be a legit star in the league.

[Roy H.]

I agree with you, however I think there are more players averaging 20/8 than you think

Sabonis, Vucevic, Antetokounmpo, Jokic, Randle, Embiid, Doncic, Davis, James

The claim was that such players are a “dime a dozen”.  Almost all of the guys you listed are All-stars, with most being MVP candidates.  The lone exception is Randall, who we don’t necessarily know what to make of yet.

[gouki88]

I agree with you, however I think there are more players averaging 20/8 than you think

Sabonis, Vucevic, Antetokounmpo, Jokic, Randle, Embiid, Doncic, Davis, James

The claim was that such players are a “dime a dozen”.  Almost all of the guys you listed are All-stars, with most being MVP candidates.  The lone exception is Randall, who we don’t necessarily know what to make of yet.

Bingo. This is the exact point I was trying to make. The 'thereabouts' guys are mostly All-Stars too, except for Harris. But he's been the 2nd best player on the top East team this year.

[Moranis]

I agree with you, however I think there are more players averaging 20/8 than you think

Sabonis, Vucevic, Antetokounmpo, Jokic, Randle, Embiid, Doncic, Davis, James

The claim was that such players are a “dime a dozen”.  Almost all of the guys you listed are All-stars, with most being MVP candidates.  The lone exception is Randall, who we don’t necessarily know what to make of yet.

Bingo. This is the exact point I was trying to make. The 'thereabouts' guys are mostly All-Stars too, except for Harris. But he's been the 2nd best player on the top East team this year.

Fair point, but an awful lot of the All Defense guards are actually all star or near all star. 

[Somebody]

I agree with you, however I think there are more players averaging 20/8 than you think

Sabonis, Vucevic, Antetokounmpo, Jokic, Randle, Embiid, Doncic, Davis, James

The claim was that such players are a “dime a dozen”.  Almost all of the guys you listed are All-stars, with most being MVP candidates.  The lone exception is Randall, who we don’t necessarily know what to make of yet.

Bingo. This is the exact point I was trying to make. The 'thereabouts' guys are mostly All-Stars too, except for Harris. But he's been the 2nd best player on the top East team this year.

Fair point, but an awful lot of the All Defense guards are actually all star or near all star.

Where is this love for Smart?!

[NKY fan]

Semi realistic but kinda of dream scenario:

Celtics in:
A.Gordon, Fournier and  T. Ross

Orlando in:
Kemba, Langford and Nesmith + BOS 21 FRP

We got the 2/3/4 positions covered between the orlando's trio and the Js. PP and MS focus solely on playing the point guard position with Smart occasionally at the 3 or 4. Do not play Smart at the 2 as this will be Brown's or Fournier's or Ross' duty.

Orlando "rebuilds" on the fly plus still have 2 all stars and 2 picks coming in from a deep draft and two promising wings to develop which they really need.

Then in the offseason when Atlanta are faced with maxing Collins their asking price will come down significantly for a sign and trade. I would think at that point Gordon plus a lightly protected pick will be enough to get Collins in a S&T utilizing the TPE we will still have.

[Csfan1984]

Semi realistic but kinda of dream scenario:

Celtics in:
A.Gordon, Fournier and  T. Ross

Orlando in:
Kemba, Langford and Nesmith + BOS 21 FRP

We got the 2/3/4 positions covered between the orlando's trio and the Js. PP and MS focus solely on playing the point guard position with Smart occasionally at the 3 or 4. Do not play Smart at the 2 as this will be Brown's or Fournier's or Ross' duty.

Orlando "rebuilds" on the fly plus still have 2 all stars and 2 picks coming in from a deep draft and two promising wings to develop which they really need.

Then in the offseason when Atlanta are faced with maxing Collins their asking price will come down significantly for a sign and trade. I would think at that point Gordon plus a lightly protected pick will be enough to get Collins in a S&T utilizing the TPE we will still have.

If you get Collins through that route then it's OK but without getting Collins in the offseason it's pretty bad. It's basically Kemba and two 1st for Aaron Gordon and Ross. Rather keep Kemba and try to develop Nesmith. Then do a three way deal in off season to ensure you get Collins.

[todd_days_41]

By what metric ?

Smart is a 2 time all defense and is going to be in a conversation there for a long time coming. Collins is in 0 discussions for anything. He has no playoffs experience. His team doesn't want him.

Every analyst ranking Ive seen puts Smart over Collins.

20 and 8 guys on a bad team are a dime a dozen. I'm not sure that Robert Williams doesn't put up those number in Atlanta. Smart is a special player.

And we give up 4 picks ??

It's just bad sorry.

Entering the year SI had Collins ranked at 59 and Smart at 68.  https://www.si.com/nba/2020/12/14/top-100-nba-players-2021-daily-cover

Collins is a lot younger and has gotten better every year.  It makes perfectly logical sense that he would have more value going forward, and probably significantly more value. 

68. Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics

It’s possible Smart’s career-best 2018–19 season—when he appeared to take a step forward as a scorer—was something of a mirage in terms of shooting. But if he’s proved one thing over the years, it’s that there’s a method behind his unique brand of chaotic good. Smart is an energy-giver in a way that few, if any, of his peers can truly match, flying around defensively to create stops, occasionally catching fire from distance, and ratcheting up the intensity level of a given moment. He’ll never be the king of efficiency, but he’s fashioned himself into a more reliable jump shooter over the years. Smart doesn’t always take care, but he always cares, sometimes more than he should, always for the right reasons. There will be nights he struggles to find the net, and others where one or two particularly inspired Smart shifts can swing the outcome of a game. He’s become an indispensable piece of one of the NBA’s better teams, and he’s earned first-team all-defense honors in consecutive years. And in an exercise like this that attempts to remove players from their contexts, his situational worth to the Celtics might even be slightly undersold. —J.W.

59. John Collins, Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta gave its roster a major makeover ahead of 2020-21, shelling out nine figures for Bogdan Bogdanović and Danilo Gallinari in a push to reach the postseason. The pair of free-agent signings will be joined by frontcourt newcomers Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu, creating a short-term logjam. But the added pieces won’t cut into Collins’s production as much as one may think. The Wake Forest has been a prodigious offensive force and will be a part of unlocking Atlanta’s tantalizing ceiling. Collins is an ideal frontcourt player alongside Trae Young, at least on the offensive end. His evolving jumper—40.1 percent from three in 2019–20—creates legitimate spacing in pick-and-pop scenarios, and Collins is downright lethal as a roll man. He averaged 1.31 points per roll possession last season, posting a better mark than Anthony Davis, Bam Adebayo and Rudy Gobert. Collins can put the ball on the floor in tight spaces, and he’s an elite leaper at the rim. You can quibble with his defensive shortcomings, as well as his lack of a true position at 6' 9". But Collins’s offensive skills are undeniable. He should command a nine-figure contract next summer, even if he moves on from Atlanta. —M.S.

Fair enough.

To me, the bigger question is this:

...you need to 2 superstars or three stars to win an NBA championship. so IMO the Cs need to use their best assets other than Brown and Tatum to land a third star.

Smart is clearly one of those assets.

so is Collins really a star? I like him as a player, but I'm not convince a core of Collins, Tatum and Brown is championship caliber in the coming 3-5 years.

[NKY fan]

Semi realistic but kinda of dream scenario:

Celtics in:
A.Gordon, Fournier and  T. Ross

Orlando in:
Kemba, Langford and Nesmith + BOS 21 FRP

We got the 2/3/4 positions covered between the orlando's trio and the Js. PP and MS focus solely on playing the point guard position with Smart occasionally at the 3 or 4. Do not play Smart at the 2 as this will be Brown's or Fournier's or Ross' duty.

Orlando "rebuilds" on the fly plus still have 2 all stars and 2 picks coming in from a deep draft and two promising wings to develop which they really need.

Then in the offseason when Atlanta are faced with maxing Collins their asking price will come down significantly for a sign and trade. I would think at that point Gordon plus a lightly protected pick will be enough to get Collins in a S&T utilizing the TPE we will still have.

If you get Collins through that route then it's OK but without getting Collins in the offseason it's pretty bad. It's basically Kemba and two 1st for Aaron Gordon and Ross. Rather keep Kemba and try to develop Nesmith. Then do a three way deal in off season to ensure you get Collins.

Gordon is probably worth 2 FRPs. Then Kemba for Ross and Fournier is hard to gauge. Hard to say who is more useful at this point of their careers. Orlando only does it because of name recognition and getting prospects right away instead of waiting to tank. We also get added flexibility to use the TPE in a S&T (assuming we are sending out Gordon’s expiring ) ... something that will not be possible next year if Kemba is on the team.

[Goldstar88]

By what metric ?

Smart is a 2 time all defense and is going to be in a conversation there for a long time coming. Collins is in 0 discussions for anything. He has no playoffs experience. His team doesn't want him.

Every analyst ranking Ive seen puts Smart over Collins.

20 and 8 guys on a bad team are a dime a dozen. I'm not sure that Robert Williams doesn't put up those number in Atlanta. Smart is a special player.

And we give up 4 picks ??

It's just bad sorry.

Entering the year SI had Collins ranked at 59 and Smart at 68.  https://www.si.com/nba/2020/12/14/top-100-nba-players-2021-daily-cover

Collins is a lot younger and has gotten better every year.  It makes perfectly logical sense that he would have more value going forward, and probably significantly more value. 

68. Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics

It’s possible Smart’s career-best 2018–19 season—when he appeared to take a step forward as a scorer—was something of a mirage in terms of shooting. But if he’s proved one thing over the years, it’s that there’s a method behind his unique brand of chaotic good. Smart is an energy-giver in a way that few, if any, of his peers can truly match, flying around defensively to create stops, occasionally catching fire from distance, and ratcheting up the intensity level of a given moment. He’ll never be the king of efficiency, but he’s fashioned himself into a more reliable jump shooter over the years. Smart doesn’t always take care, but he always cares, sometimes more than he should, always for the right reasons. There will be nights he struggles to find the net, and others where one or two particularly inspired Smart shifts can swing the outcome of a game. He’s become an indispensable piece of one of the NBA’s better teams, and he’s earned first-team all-defense honors in consecutive years. And in an exercise like this that attempts to remove players from their contexts, his situational worth to the Celtics might even be slightly undersold. —J.W.

59. John Collins, Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta gave its roster a major makeover ahead of 2020-21, shelling out nine figures for Bogdan Bogdanović and Danilo Gallinari in a push to reach the postseason. The pair of free-agent signings will be joined by frontcourt newcomers Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu, creating a short-term logjam. But the added pieces won’t cut into Collins’s production as much as one may think. The Wake Forest has been a prodigious offensive force and will be a part of unlocking Atlanta’s tantalizing ceiling. Collins is an ideal frontcourt player alongside Trae Young, at least on the offensive end. His evolving jumper—40.1 percent from three in 2019–20—creates legitimate spacing in pick-and-pop scenarios, and Collins is downright lethal as a roll man. He averaged 1.31 points per roll possession last season, posting a better mark than Anthony Davis, Bam Adebayo and Rudy Gobert. Collins can put the ball on the floor in tight spaces, and he’s an elite leaper at the rim. You can quibble with his defensive shortcomings, as well as his lack of a true position at 6' 9". But Collins’s offensive skills are undeniable. He should command a nine-figure contract next summer, even if he moves on from Atlanta. —M.S.

Fair enough.

To me, the bigger question is this:

...you need to 2 superstars or three stars to win an NBA championship. so IMO the Cs need to use their best assets other than Brown and Tatum to land a third star.

Smart is clearly one of those assets.

so is Collins really a star? I like him as a player, but I'm not convince a core of Collins, Tatum and Brown is championship caliber in the coming 3-5 years.

He’s not and that’s why it’s  not worth it. 4 years in the league, no all star appearances. His numbers are significantly down from last year. Plus, he wants a max contract.

[GreenWarrior]

I know this will come as a surprise to many of you but smart is more valuable to this team than he would be to another team.

There are no teams out there saying - if we had smart we'd be over the hump.

On top of that there are no moves out there to improve this team dramatically, we squandered every 3rd piece we had, that trade exception isn't everything.

We have no assets, if we move tatum or brown it'll just be a sideways move.

If I'm wrong tell me how we get better? Waiting for young guys? It's basically our only option at this point. But keep in mind by the time we find out what they actually are tatum and or brown may want out by that time.

Big gamble by danny imo.

[NKY fan]

I know this will come as a surprise to many of you but smart is more valuable to this team than he would be to another team.

There are no teams out there saying - if we had smart we'd be over the hump.

On top of that there are no moves out there to improve this team dramatically, we squandered every 3rd piece we had, that trade exception isn't everything.

We have no assets, if we move tatum or brown it'll just be a sideways move.

If I'm wrong tell me how we get better? Waiting for young guys? It's basically our only option at this point. But keep in mind by the time we find out what they actually are tatum and or brown may want out by that time.

Big gamble by danny imo.

Overly dramatic . But yea if the rookie contracts don’t show more than marginal improvement Danny will have to make trades. It’s not a good sign that those young guys can’t get consistent playing time. Even Pritchard has had a rough stretch. Hard to say if it’s a gamble but Danny’s love with draft picks has run its course and people are getting impatient

[Moranis]

By what metric ?

Smart is a 2 time all defense and is going to be in a conversation there for a long time coming. Collins is in 0 discussions for anything. He has no playoffs experience. His team doesn't want him.

Every analyst ranking Ive seen puts Smart over Collins.

20 and 8 guys on a bad team are a dime a dozen. I'm not sure that Robert Williams doesn't put up those number in Atlanta. Smart is a special player.

And we give up 4 picks ??

It's just bad sorry.

Entering the year SI had Collins ranked at 59 and Smart at 68.  https://www.si.com/nba/2020/12/14/top-100-nba-players-2021-daily-cover

Collins is a lot younger and has gotten better every year.  It makes perfectly logical sense that he would have more value going forward, and probably significantly more value. 

68. Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics

It’s possible Smart’s career-best 2018–19 season—when he appeared to take a step forward as a scorer—was something of a mirage in terms of shooting. But if he’s proved one thing over the years, it’s that there’s a method behind his unique brand of chaotic good. Smart is an energy-giver in a way that few, if any, of his peers can truly match, flying around defensively to create stops, occasionally catching fire from distance, and ratcheting up the intensity level of a given moment. He’ll never be the king of efficiency, but he’s fashioned himself into a more reliable jump shooter over the years. Smart doesn’t always take care, but he always cares, sometimes more than he should, always for the right reasons. There will be nights he struggles to find the net, and others where one or two particularly inspired Smart shifts can swing the outcome of a game. He’s become an indispensable piece of one of the NBA’s better teams, and he’s earned first-team all-defense honors in consecutive years. And in an exercise like this that attempts to remove players from their contexts, his situational worth to the Celtics might even be slightly undersold. —J.W.

59. John Collins, Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta gave its roster a major makeover ahead of 2020-21, shelling out nine figures for Bogdan Bogdanović and Danilo Gallinari in a push to reach the postseason. The pair of free-agent signings will be joined by frontcourt newcomers Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu, creating a short-term logjam. But the added pieces won’t cut into Collins’s production as much as one may think. The Wake Forest has been a prodigious offensive force and will be a part of unlocking Atlanta’s tantalizing ceiling. Collins is an ideal frontcourt player alongside Trae Young, at least on the offensive end. His evolving jumper—40.1 percent from three in 2019–20—creates legitimate spacing in pick-and-pop scenarios, and Collins is downright lethal as a roll man. He averaged 1.31 points per roll possession last season, posting a better mark than Anthony Davis, Bam Adebayo and Rudy Gobert. Collins can put the ball on the floor in tight spaces, and he’s an elite leaper at the rim. You can quibble with his defensive shortcomings, as well as his lack of a true position at 6' 9". But Collins’s offensive skills are undeniable. He should command a nine-figure contract next summer, even if he moves on from Atlanta. —M.S.

Fair enough.

To me, the bigger question is this:

...you need to 2 superstars or three stars to win an NBA championship. so IMO the Cs need to use their best assets other than Brown and Tatum to land a third star.

Smart is clearly one of those assets.

so is Collins really a star? I like him as a player, but I'm not convince a core of Collins, Tatum and Brown is championship caliber in the coming 3-5 years.

He’s not and that’s why it’s  not worth it. 4 years in the league, no all star appearances. His numbers are significantly down from last year. Plus, he wants a max contract.

Jaylen Brown is now in year 5 and hasn't made an all star team.  These guys from the same draft or the one right before Collins all got contracts at over 20 million a year and haven't been all stars yet: Jaylen Brown, De'Aaron Fox, Jamal Murray, Buddy Hield, Malcolm Brogdon.  The only bad contract was Hield's.  And I get that Brown is going to be an all star this year, but this is year 5. 

Collins' numbers are down some this year because the Hawks added a bunch of new players, which is why they are no longer one of the worst teams in basketball.  They quite simply have a lot more mouths to feed. 

[wdleehi]

I like Collins but still wouldn't trade Smart for him.   That is filling one hole by creating another one.  Except of course the team would then have less resources to use to fill the hole.