Poll

Who is our best player?

Jaylen
36 (51.4%)
Jayson
34 (48.6%)

Total Members Voted: 70

Author Topic: Who is our best player?  (Read 21518 times)

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Re: Who is our best player?
« Reply #60 on: January 04, 2021, 02:16:52 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Touch rates.

Jayson averages 74.4 touches per game with a time of possession of about 4.6 minutes per game (3.68 sec/touch).

Jaylen averages 59.1 touches per game with a time of possession of about 2.7 minutes per game (2.7 sec/touch).

Normalized per touch:

Jayson is scoring .326 and assisting .151 for a total of .477 points created per touch.

Jaylen is scoring .473 and assisting .140 for a total of .613 points created per touch.

Jayson is committing .036 turnovers per touch.  The defensive rating when JT is on the floor is 108.3 and thus those turnovers are worth roughly -.039 points per touch. (Probably _slightly_ more in reality but this is a good ballpark).

Jaylen is committing .041 turnover per touch.  The defensive rating when JB is on the floor is 108.9 and those those turnovers are worth roughly -.045 points per touch.

Thus, the simple net point creation per touch for each player is:

Jayson:  .438 net points created per touch
Jaylen:  .568 net points created per touch

This is, of course, very overly simplistic and ignores some factors such as missed shots and secondary assists.
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Re: Who is our best player?
« Reply #61 on: January 04, 2021, 02:38:38 PM »

Online Vermont Green

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It is natural to look at stats when trying to decide who is better but in basketball, that can be tricky.  What I see teams doing against Boston is basing the defense on stopping Tatum from scoring first.  This means all the other players get more and better chances to score.  Brown has played great so far this season, or at least improved his shooting.  He has always been a very good all around player.  But so far, he has not been the one that the defenses are trying to stop in the same way they key on Tatum.

For this reason, it is hard to simply go by stats.  Brown has played great, more points than Tatum on fewer shots but both are good all around players.  I think Tatum is still the better scorer/shooter and as that is the most coveted NBA commodity, it puts Tatum slightly ahead of Brown.  I am more than happy with both though.  Two great young players to build around.

Re: Who is our best player?
« Reply #62 on: January 04, 2021, 04:16:54 PM »

Online Moranis

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Quote
Boston needs Tatum.  Boston doesn't need Brown.

I’m pretty sure we need both.
Except Boston is actually better with Brown on the bench and has been for the last 3 years.  That was the context of that quote you pulled out, without actually commenting about it.  Brown's value to winning is basically non-existent.  He has great stats, but he doesn't impact the scoreboard and never has, which is what matters at the end of the day.
Sure wish you could've bought into this type of argument in our Moses/Kareem debates where +/- metrics far better than raw on/off were used :laugh:.

As for Brown, adjusted +/- metrics (eg. RPM, RAPTOR, multiyear RAPM) that paint a far better picture of a player's situational value than raw on/off suggest that he's a small positive on both ends of the court - in line with a fringe All-Star when you consider that these stats generally underrate his ability to guard a variety of wings or even guards in the playoffs (for example, RAPTOR thought that he was a neutral defender in the RS last season, but they rated him as a top wing defender in the playoffs). The big thing about Jaylen this season is whether his qualitative (eg. shooting, passing, dribbling, etc) and quantitative (in terms of the box score) improvements can actually drive team success like a borderline All-NBA guy - we still don't have adjusted +/- data yet, those take 20+ games before they are released, and raw on/off in a 7 game sample size might not even pin the directionality of a player's situational value correctly (you need a 20ish game sample size to even start getting a reliable-ish signal).
They don't have on/off differential available back when Moses and Kareem played, but I suspect that Moses had a larger one because he was much more important to his team's offense than Kareem was in the the late 70's and early 80's and that affects the scoreboard a great deal. 

Raptor often has some pretty ridiculous results, but that said their on/off stats show exactly what I said, that Boston is better when Brown is on the bench then when he is in the game, while Tatum is by far the most important player on the team and that Boston falls apart when Tatum isn't in the game.  Last year, Tatum's on/off Raptor was +7.1.  Hayward was next on the team at 3.9.  Brown was -0.8, only Semi was worse of the 10 Celtics that logged enough minutes to be tracked. 

And to be clear, I'm not suggesting that if Boston just removed Brown they would be better, but I don't think the loss of Brown would be felt nearly as much as this board.  And even last year, Brown missed 15 games, the Celtics had the exact same win percentage in those 15 games as they did over the season (66.6%).  Tatum missed 6 games, Boston was 2-4 (33.3%) without him and 46-20 (69.6%) with him.   And this wasn't just last year either.  In 2019, Brown missed 8 games, Boston went 8-0.  They went 8-4 without Brown in 18 (less than a percent worse).  The simple reality is, for as good as Brown is, the team just doesn't miss him when he isn't there.
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Re: Who is our best player?
« Reply #63 on: January 04, 2021, 05:34:14 PM »

Offline Big333223

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I'm quibbling with the OP's question.

Tatum is the best player on the team. Brown has been the best player on the team so far this season.

Tatum is still the more talented player whose capable of more and has done more in their respective careers. But over these 7 games, Jaylen has been better.
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Re: Who is our best player?
« Reply #64 on: January 04, 2021, 07:09:16 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Quote
Boston needs Tatum.  Boston doesn't need Brown.

I’m pretty sure we need both.
Except Boston is actually better with Brown on the bench and has been for the last 3 years.  That was the context of that quote you pulled out, without actually commenting about it.  Brown's value to winning is basically non-existent.  He has great stats, but he doesn't impact the scoreboard and never has, which is what matters at the end of the day.
Sure wish you could've bought into this type of argument in our Moses/Kareem debates where +/- metrics far better than raw on/off were used :laugh:.

As for Brown, adjusted +/- metrics (eg. RPM, RAPTOR, multiyear RAPM) that paint a far better picture of a player's situational value than raw on/off suggest that he's a small positive on both ends of the court - in line with a fringe All-Star when you consider that these stats generally underrate his ability to guard a variety of wings or even guards in the playoffs (for example, RAPTOR thought that he was a neutral defender in the RS last season, but they rated him as a top wing defender in the playoffs). The big thing about Jaylen this season is whether his qualitative (eg. shooting, passing, dribbling, etc) and quantitative (in terms of the box score) improvements can actually drive team success like a borderline All-NBA guy - we still don't have adjusted +/- data yet, those take 20+ games before they are released, and raw on/off in a 7 game sample size might not even pin the directionality of a player's situational value correctly (you need a 20ish game sample size to even start getting a reliable-ish signal).
They don't have on/off differential available back when Moses and Kareem played, but I suspect that Moses had a larger one because he was much more important to his team's offense than Kareem was in the the late 70's and early 80's and that affects the scoreboard a great deal. 

Raptor often has some pretty ridiculous results, but that said their on/off stats show exactly what I said, that Boston is better when Brown is on the bench then when he is in the game, while Tatum is by far the most important player on the team and that Boston falls apart when Tatum isn't in the game.  Last year, Tatum's on/off Raptor was +7.1.  Hayward was next on the team at 3.9.  Brown was -0.8, only Semi was worse of the 10 Celtics that logged enough minutes to be tracked. 

And to be clear, I'm not suggesting that if Boston just removed Brown they would be better, but I don't think the loss of Brown would be felt nearly as much as this board.  And even last year, Brown missed 15 games, the Celtics had the exact same win percentage in those 15 games as they did over the season (66.6%).  Tatum missed 6 games, Boston was 2-4 (33.3%) without him and 46-20 (69.6%) with him.   And this wasn't just last year either.  In 2019, Brown missed 8 games, Boston went 8-0.  They went 8-4 without Brown in 18 (less than a percent worse).  The simple reality is, for as good as Brown is, the team just doesn't miss him when he isn't there.

There are so many issues and problems with APM analysis that it isn't even worth getting into it here.   Suffice to say that the error bars on these sorts of analytical methods tend to make them worthless even if they are sometimes wrapped broadly, like giant cushions around an actual valid conclusion.

IF there is any validity to the contention that the presence/absence of Brown has been of lesser impact then you can probably find the actual reason for that in utilization and touches.

A player not being utilized on offense is going to have a lesser impact than a player getting lots of usage.   That's just fundamental.

Jaylen Brown has historically been somewhat scarcely utilized.  This year so far represents a notable jump from prior seasons:

Code: [Select]
Touches/gm
Player  2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
Jaylen    21.9    38.9    31.8    49.0    59.1
Jayson            42.7    45.3    68.1    74.4

Now, starting in the Spring of the 2017-18 season, Jaylen's scoring efficiency started to increase and it really kicked up starting in late November of 2018.  But his touches went down because of his ice-cold start to the 2018-19 season.  The overall impact of his offense was still muted.  Even during some of his good playoff runs (2018, this last year), where Jaylen got more shots (higher USG), his total touches were still relatively modest.

One good sign though, is that during stretches where his USG was higher, Jaylen's scoring efficiency (TS) did not drop.  He was always efficient regardless of higher load.

This season (so far), Jaylen's touches and USG are both up significantly over prior seasons.  And his efficiency is (so far) definitely holding up just fine.   And you can already see the advanced stat results of the higher utilization in things like his Win Share rate, which is over .200/48.

If these trends continue, I suspect that Jaylen's value over replacement will be a quite a bit larger this year than in prior years, which would render your analysis moot.
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Re: Who is our best player?
« Reply #65 on: January 04, 2021, 07:23:38 PM »

Offline tarheelsxxiii

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Please add Pritchard to the pole.   Thank you in advance.
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Re: Who is our best player?
« Reply #66 on: January 04, 2021, 07:55:28 PM »

Offline IDreamCeltics

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Please add Pritchard to the pole.   Thank you in advance.

They won't.  They're too afraid to let the voters decide.

Re: Who is our best player?
« Reply #67 on: January 04, 2021, 08:29:47 PM »

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Re: Who is our best player?
« Reply #68 on: January 04, 2021, 08:40:31 PM »

Offline footey

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OK, I wanna change my vote. Are the polls closed??

Re: Who is our best player?
« Reply #69 on: January 04, 2021, 09:02:12 PM »

Online Moranis

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OK, I wanna change my vote. Are the polls closed??
I'm absolutely amazed by the voting.  Brown with a significant lead.  Absolutely astonishing.  I expected it to be a blowout for Tatum, as he is, and always has been the better player.  I don't really think it is close. 
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Re: Who is our best player?
« Reply #70 on: January 04, 2021, 09:09:52 PM »

Offline PAOBoston

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OK, I wanna change my vote. Are the polls closed??
I'm absolutely amazed by the voting.  Brown with a significant lead.  Absolutely astonishing.  I expected it to be a blowout for Tatum, as he is, and always has been the better player.  I don't really think it is close.
Should be some interesting takes after tonight’s game lol

Re: Who is our best player?
« Reply #71 on: January 04, 2021, 09:20:49 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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This doesn't matter. I love that our best two players are young and enjoy one another's success. They compliment each other well and try to get each other easy looks. They also defer when the other has it going.

Re: Who is our best player?
« Reply #72 on: January 04, 2021, 09:47:16 PM »

Offline gouki88

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Where's the Payton option?
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Re: Who is our best player?
« Reply #73 on: January 04, 2021, 10:05:00 PM »

Offline tarheelsxxiii

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Please add Pritchard to the pole.   Thank you in advance.

They won't.  They're too afraid to let the voters decide.

This Republic demands a Prodigy Pritch option!
« Last Edit: January 05, 2021, 11:06:41 AM by tarheelsxxiii »
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Re: Who is our best player?
« Reply #74 on: January 04, 2021, 10:07:16 PM »

Offline Somebody

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Quote
Boston needs Tatum.  Boston doesn't need Brown.

I’m pretty sure we need both.
Except Boston is actually better with Brown on the bench and has been for the last 3 years.  That was the context of that quote you pulled out, without actually commenting about it.  Brown's value to winning is basically non-existent.  He has great stats, but he doesn't impact the scoreboard and never has, which is what matters at the end of the day.
Sure wish you could've bought into this type of argument in our Moses/Kareem debates where +/- metrics far better than raw on/off were used :laugh:.

As for Brown, adjusted +/- metrics (eg. RPM, RAPTOR, multiyear RAPM) that paint a far better picture of a player's situational value than raw on/off suggest that he's a small positive on both ends of the court - in line with a fringe All-Star when you consider that these stats generally underrate his ability to guard a variety of wings or even guards in the playoffs (for example, RAPTOR thought that he was a neutral defender in the RS last season, but they rated him as a top wing defender in the playoffs). The big thing about Jaylen this season is whether his qualitative (eg. shooting, passing, dribbling, etc) and quantitative (in terms of the box score) improvements can actually drive team success like a borderline All-NBA guy - we still don't have adjusted +/- data yet, those take 20+ games before they are released, and raw on/off in a 7 game sample size might not even pin the directionality of a player's situational value correctly (you need a 20ish game sample size to even start getting a reliable-ish signal).
They don't have on/off differential available back when Moses and Kareem played, but I suspect that Moses had a larger one because he was much more important to his team's offense than Kareem was in the the late 70's and early 80's and that affects the scoreboard a great deal. 

Raptor often has some pretty ridiculous results, but that said their on/off stats show exactly what I said, that Boston is better when Brown is on the bench then when he is in the game, while Tatum is by far the most important player on the team and that Boston falls apart when Tatum isn't in the game.  Last year, Tatum's on/off Raptor was +7.1.  Hayward was next on the team at 3.9.  Brown was -0.8, only Semi was worse of the 10 Celtics that logged enough minutes to be tracked. 

And to be clear, I'm not suggesting that if Boston just removed Brown they would be better, but I don't think the loss of Brown would be felt nearly as much as this board.  And even last year, Brown missed 15 games, the Celtics had the exact same win percentage in those 15 games as they did over the season (66.6%).  Tatum missed 6 games, Boston was 2-4 (33.3%) without him and 46-20 (69.6%) with him.   And this wasn't just last year either.  In 2019, Brown missed 8 games, Boston went 8-0.  They went 8-4 without Brown in 18 (less than a percent worse).  The simple reality is, for as good as Brown is, the team just doesn't miss him when he isn't there.
They do have +/- back then for Moses in Philadelphia (thanks to statistician Harvey Pollack) and it doesn't look good - his adjusted +/- with that raw +/- was unstable in his four years with Philadelphia while a game-by-game regression that aims to approximate APM values paints his prime years as a star who was far short of the All-Time MVPs. We don't have adjusted +/- for Kareem, but he absolutely kills it in the game-by-game regression with ratings just below the top of the heap in that metric.
Jaylen Brown for All-NBA